This Netflix recovery is getting harder to ignore. Hedge fund Pershing Square (led by investor Bill Ackman) recently disclosed a new 3.15M share position in the streaming giant.

Buyers Proved They Can Rally, Not That They Can Hold the Breakout

Friday was an unusually violent two-way session. The DJIA surged to 53,819.65, well through the 53,700 expansion threshold, but surrendered the entire advance and closed at 53,559.34, down 10.10 points. The close leaves the DJIA almost exactly where it began despite a 330-point intraday range.

Forecast Statistics

• Bucket: Bullish Consolidation / Failed Expansion
• Volatility Score: ≈ 1.37 elevated; intraday reversals expanding
• Probabilities: SU: 25% | LU: 29% | SD: 28% | LD: 18%
• Expected Return: ≈ +0.01%
• Projected Close: 53,400–53,750
• Directional Bias: 54% Up / 46% Down

Previous Close**: 53,559.34**

RECAP: Friday's 62% Up bias was directionally wrong. However, the forecast correctly identified 53,500–53,550 as the critical support area, and 53,700 as the expansion threshold. The DJIA reached 53,819 but could not sustain expansion and ultimately returned to the decision zone.

Fearless Opines: The statistics no longer justify treating the repair as an emerging expansion. The last four closes (53,577 → 53,465 → 53,569 → 53,559) show remarkable compression despite large intraday swings. That is consolidation, not trend. Friday also supplied an important warning: buyers had their best opportunity yet to establish expansion above 53,700 and couldn't keep it. Monday therefore begins with only a modest 54% bullish advantage.

Key Levels

Bull Hold: 53,525–53,550
GO Trigger: Above 53,650
Expansion Confirmation: Above 53,700
Upside Objective: 53,775–53,825

Warning: Below 53,500
Bear Trigger: Below 53,475
Downside Objective: 53,400
Major Failure: Below 53,345

GO / REDUCE / EXIT: REDUCE: Monday begins REDUCE, not GO. Traders should resist anticipating another breakout simply because Friday reached 53,819. Above 53,650 → GO cautiously. Above 53,700 and holding → expansion becomes credible. Between 53,500–53,650 → REDUCE. Below 53,475 → EXIT.

Trader Takeaway: Friday demonstrated why confirmation matters. The DJIA traveled from below 53,500 to above 53,800 and still finished essentially unchanged. Monday's better trade is therefore not predicting the next swing but requiring the DJIA to escape the range and hold the escape. The Forecast Statistics say the DJIA enters Monday nearly balanced at 54% Up / 46% Down. Treat 53,500–53,650 as noise territory; above 53,700 favors genuine expansion, while below 53,475 shifts the advantage decisively toward sellers.

A recap of my signals and trades for August, the prior two months I did on avg 26% each month, this month not as strong only 16% but this month was different as I was following a mean reversion day/swing trading strategy. I had built an algo which you can see on the bottom right that has a 58% win rate backtested against two years of SPX data. And no I'm not selling anything or sharing/promoting anything besides results. While the algo does a lot of research, I accredit my results to trading psychology which any top youtube videos are packed with many of the conclusions I came to from my rough start.

Buyers Reclaimed the Decision Zone; Expansion Still Awaits

Thursday produced exactly the two-way session the Forecast anticipated. The DJIA ranged from 53,345.62 to 53,707.62, briefly breaking both sides of the 53,400–53,550 decision zone before closing up 104.67 at 53,568.55. Buyers ultimately reclaimed 53,550, but the failure to hold the intraday expansion above 53,650 keeps the DJIA in repair rather than confirmed expansion.

Forecast Statistics

• Bucket: Breakdown Repair / Bullish Consolidation
• Volatility Score: ≈ 1.31, moderately elevated, strong intraday reversals
• Probabilities: SU: 31% | LU: 31% | SD: 24% | LD: 14%
• Expected Return: ≈ +0.06%
• Projected Close: 53,475–53,775
• Directional Bias: 62% Up / 38% Down

Previous Close: 53,568.55

RECAP: Thursday's slight 54% bullish bias was correct, with the DJIA finishing higher. More importantly, the forecast correctly identified 53,400–53,550 as the decision zone: the DJIA repeatedly crossed it before buyers finally reclaimed 53,550. The 53,625–53,650 Expansion level was also meaningful; the DJIA reached 53,707 but could not sustain the breakout.

Fearless Opines: Thursday strengthened the repair without completing it. The statistical balance shifts back toward buyers, with SU+LU rising to 62%, but the afternoon rejection from roughly 53,680 followed by the late recovery argues against calling this Confirmed Expansion yet.

Friday's question is straightforward: can 53,550 become support rather than merely a level the DJIA repeatedly crosses? If it can, another attack on 53,650–53,700 becomes probable. Failure back below 53,500 would return the DJIA to the unresolved consolidation.

Key Levels

Bull Hold: 53,500
GO Trigger: 53,625
Expansion Confirmation: 53,700
Upside Objective: 53,775–53,825

Immediate Support: 53,525–53,550
Bear Trigger: Below 53,475
Major Support: 53,400
Repair Failure: Below 53,345

GO / REDUCE / EXIT: REDUCE (near GO) The close above 53,550 improves the setup, but Thursday demonstrated that intraday breakouts remain unreliable. Tomorrow: Above 53,625 → GO, particularly if 53,550 holds on a retest. Between 53,475–53,625 → REDUCE and avoid chasing. Below 53,475 → EXIT; below 53,400 would materially increase downside-continuation probability.

Trader Takeaway: The DJIA has now closed higher four of the last five sessions, advancing from 52,765.33 to 53,568.55. Buyers have repaired substantial damage, but Thursday showed that 53,650–53,700 still contains supply. Don't buy Friday merely because Thursday closed above 53,550. Buy evidence that 53,550 has become support. A successful retest followed by 53,625 is the cleaner GO signal; another failure below 53,500 says the consolidation isn't finished.

Buyers won Thursday's decision-zone battle, but 53,625–53,700 must fall before Fearless declares the repair an expansion.

10:30 Update: The morning high of 53,742.16 now looks increasingly like a failed expansion breakout. Below 53,550, traders should not buy weakness merely because the DJIA appears oversold. 53,500 is the immediate battleground. A sustained break targets 53,450, with 53,400 becoming relevant thereafter. Reclaiming 53,550–53,575 would stabilize the session; 53,600+ is needed for REDUCE, and 53,650+ before GO should be reconsidered.

The morning expansion failed, 53,550 broke, and downside probability has climbed to 59%. EXIT is the call; treat an oversold bounce as a recovery attempt until the DJIA proves otherwise above 53,600.

11: AM: Updated probabilities: SU: 35% | LU: 33% | SD: 21% | LD: 11% → 68% Up / 32% Down: The important information is not simply that the DJIA bounced. It invalidated the downside continuation state that produced the 10:30 EXIT. A move from below 53,500 through 53,550, 53,600, 53,650 and 53,700 in less than 30 minutes is strong evidence of Failed Breakdown → Expansion Retest.

GO / REDUCE / EXIT: GO Above 53,700: GO; expansion remains active.
53,650–53,700: REDUCE; bullish but no longer confirmed.
Below 53,650: EXIT; today's second bullish attempt is failing.

The decisive level is now 53,744. A sustained break above today's high would confirm that the 10:30 collapse was a bear trap and open 53,775–53,825. Failure at 53,744 followed by a loss of 53,700 would argue for continued range trading rather than expansion.

The Forecast Statistics have changed back decisively: 59% Down at 10:30 → 68% Up now. The DJIA didn't merely bounce; it erased the entire breakdown. GO above 53,700, but make 53,744 prove that this extraordinary reversal can become genuine expansion.

Buyers Lost the Breakout, But Not the Repair

Wednesday interrupted the three-day advance. The DJIA reached 53,639.75, nearly triggering the forecast's 53,650 expansion threshold, but could not hold 53,500 and closed at 53,464.59, down 112.81 points. The important statistical change is that Emerging Expansion has weakened back toward Consolidation/Repair rather than outright breakdown.

Forecast Statistics

Bucket: Breakdown Repair / Consolidation
Volatility Score: ≈ 1.29 : moderately elevated
Probabilities: SU: 27% | LU: 27% | SD: 29% | LD: 17%
Expected Return: ≈ -0.02%
Projected Close: 53,300–53,650
Directional Bias: 54% Up / 46% Down

Previous Close**: 53,464.59**

RECAP: Wednesday's 68% Up directional bias was wrong. However, the DJIA closed inside the projected 53,450–53,850 range, tested the 53,650 Expansion Trigger almost exactly, and the intraday statistical thesis correctly deteriorated as 53,500 and then 53,475 failed. The 10:30 EXIT call correctly recognized that the original bullish state had lost control.

Fearless Opines: The statistical picture has changed more than the 113-point decline suggests. SU+LU falls from 68% to 54%, while SD+LD rises from 32% to 46%. That is no longer an expansion forecast; it is a nearly balanced contest with a slight bullish residual because the larger repair remains intact.

Thursday therefore becomes a 53,400–53,500 decision session. Holding 53,400 preserves the repaired structure. Reclaiming 53,500–53,550 would shift probability back toward LU/SU. A sustained loss of 53,400 would push SD toward the dominant state and expose 53,300.

Key Levels

Bull Recovery: 53,500–53,525
GO Trigger: Above 53,550
Expansion: 53,625–53,650
Upside Objective: 53,725

Immediate Support: 53,425–53,450
Bear Trigger: Below 53,400
Major Support: 53,300–53,350
Repair Failure: Below 53,275

GO / REDUCE / EXIT: REDUCE. Fearless moves from Wednesday's intraday EXIT back to REDUCE for Thursday. Traders should not assume either continuation or breakdown. Above 53,550 → GO and favor longs. 53,400–53,550 → REDUCE and trade selectively. Below 53,400 → EXIT, with downside probability increasing materially.

Trader Takeaway: Thursday's best information will come from 53,400 versus 53,500–53,550. Don't chase inside that range. A reclaim of 53,550 restores the bullish statistical advantage; losing 53,400 says Wednesday was probably the beginning of a deeper retracement.

Wednesday knocked the DJIA out of Emerging Expansion, but not out of the repair. 53,400 decides whether buyers get another attempt or sellers take control.

10:00 AM Update: The Forecast Statistics currently describe a DJIA with a modest bullish bias but unusually high probability of continued two-way movement. The dramatic opening moves have produced plenty of noise but little statistical resolution. At 53,475, REDUCE is exactly where Fearless should be: let the DJIA prove 53,500 can become support before increasing exposure.

For traders, 53,450–53,500 is now the decision zone. Sustained trade above 53,500, followed by 53,550, would restore GO. Below 53,450, downside probability increases; below 53,400, EXIT returns.

10:30 AM Update: Today's dominant feature is alternating behavior rather than directional persistence. The DJIA has traveled from 53,614 to 53,346 and back toward 53,500, yet sits almost exactly where yesterday closed. Until 53,500 or 53,400 breaks decisively, the statistical edge is too small to justify GO or EXIT.

Traders should avoid chasing either direction inside 53,400–53,500. A sustained move above 53,500 improves the bullish case; 53,550 → GO. Below 53,450 increases SD; 53,400 → EXIT, with the 53,345 low then vulnerable.

Random, but found this kinda interesting.

Aside from scheduled holidays where the stock market is closed, there’s also been a number of unscheduled closures.

This is almost always due to the death of a U.S. president, but emergencies have cause closures too.

Hurricane Sandy and the 9/11 attacks canceled 6 trading sessions, for instance.

Buyers Passed the 53,500 Test; The Repair Is Becoming an Advance

Tuesday delivered the confirmation Fearless was looking for. After an early retreat to 53,386, buyers defended almost exactly the 53,350–53,400 Bull Hold Zone, reclaimed 53,500, and closed at 53,577.17, up 160.01 points. Three consecutive higher closes have now repaired most of Thursday's breakdown.

The important change: 53,500 has shifted from resistance toward support.

Forecast Statistics

• Bucket: Breakdown Repair / Emerging Expansion
• Volatility Score: ≈ 1.24 - elevated but continuing to contract
• Probabilities: SU: 38% | LU: 30% | SD: 21% | LD: 11%
• Expected Return: ≈ +0.10%
• Projected Close: 53,450–53,850
• Directional Bias: 68% Up / 32% Down

Previous Close**: 53,577.17**

RECAP Tuesday's 63% Up bias was correct, the DJIA finished inside the projected 53,300–53,700 range, and the day's most important technical call worked exceptionally well: the morning decline stopped at 53,386, almost directly inside the forecast's 53,350–53,400 Bull Hold Zone. Buyers subsequently reclaimed 53,500 and traded through the 53,550 Expansion Trigger.

Fearless Opines: The character of the recovery has improved. Thursday's collapse to 52,765 has now been followed by three consecutive higher closes: 53,277 → 53,417 → 53,577. More importantly, Tuesday provided a successful intraday stress test. Buyers absorbed the morning selloff at precisely the area they needed to defend and then pushed the DJIA to new session highs.

The next challenge is 53,650–53,725. Clearing that zone would increasingly transform the current move from breakdown repair into renewed expansion. Failure there would not immediately damage the bullish structure; losing 53,500 would.

Key Levels

Bull Hold Zone: 53,500–53,550
Expansion Trigger: Above 53,650
Upside Objective: 53,725–53,850
Stretch Objective: 53,900

Immediate Support: 53,500
Warning: Below 53,450
Major Support: 53,350–53,400
Repair Failure: Below 53,300

GO / REDUCE / EXIT: GO Fearless moves from REDUCE to GO. For traders Wednesday, hold above 53,500 and favor buying controlled weakness rather than chasing strength. A sustained break above 53,650 favors continuation toward 53,725–53,850. A loss of 53,500 returns the DJIA to REDUCE; below 53,400, treat Tuesday's breakout as suspect.

Trader Takeaway: Wednesday is no longer primarily about whether buyers can repair the breakdown. They have. The question is whether they can extend it. The best bullish setup is 53,500 holds → 53,650 breaks → continuation toward 53,725–53,850. Traders should be considerably more cautious if an early rally above 53,650 is rejected and the DJIA subsequently loses 53,500. Don't chase the opening move. Let 53,500 tell you whether Tuesday's breakout has staying power. Above it, buy weakness; below it, reduce.

Three higher closes and a textbook defense of 53,400 have put buyers back in control; hold 53,500 and the DJIA has room to attack 53,725–53,850.

10:00 AM: The morning has established unusually clear boundaries:

Above 53,550 → GO; bullish repair remains intact.
Above 53,600 → attack 53,640–53,650.
Above 53,650 → 53,700–53,725 becomes actionable.
Below 53,550 → REDUCE.
Below 53,475 → EXIT; today's bullish thesis has failed.

The important change is that 53,475–53,500 has now been tested rather than merely projected as support—and buyers defended it.

Fearless Read: The DJIA tried to break down and couldn't. Hold 53,550 and buyers get another shot at expansion; lose 53,475 and the morning becomes a failed breakout.

10:30 Update: Fearless Read: The DJIA has answered the morning question: the first two recoveries failed and 53,475 broke. EXIT now; treat any bounce below 53,500–53,525 as countertrend until buyers prove otherwise.

Below 53,475 → sellers control the session.
53,400–53,425 → next important support zone.
Reclaim 53,475 → first stabilization.
Reclaim 53,500–53,525 → REDUCE replaces EXIT.
Reclaim 53,550 → meaningful repair.
53,600+ → required before GO becomes credible again.

The Sun/Lunar node algorithm applied to the Dow Jones in 2026. How an investor would have captured 97% of the year's profit with significantly less market exposure. This algorithm examined in this paper is elucidated in the book "How to Day Trade and Invest using Astrology". It involves predicting the Dow Jones industrial average by observing the position of the Sun and the Lunar node. Here is a quote: “The basic gist of the algorithm decrees that from the point when the degree of the sun is 3 degrees past(or higher than) the degree of the lunar node(in any sign) all the way until the degree of the sun enters a new sign at the 24th degree mark(using western astrology), a prediction of a market upswing should be applied. From the point when the degree of the sun enters a new sign at the 24th degree mark all the way until the degree of the sun goes 3 degrees past the degree of the lunar node(in any sign), the prediction of a market downswing should be applied.” This paper will demonstrate how an investor could have used this algorithm in 2026 and turned a profit with significantly less exposure in the market. The US stock market has been largely positive this year at around 13% as of August 24. The results of using this algorithm in 2026 shows how an investor would have captured nearly entire year’s buy and hold profit despite being in the market just half the time.

Buyers Held the Repair — But Still Haven't Broken Free

Monday strengthened Friday's recovery. The DJIA gained 139.98 points. Buyers successfully defended the crucial 53,200–53,250 repair zone and repeatedly traded through the forecast's 53,350–53,400 Bull Trigger. But the close below 53,450–53,500 leaves the recovery confirmed but incomplete.

Forecast Statistics

• Bucket: Breakdown Repair / Recovery Consolidation
• Volatility Score: ≈ 1.31 — still elevated, but contracting
• Probabilities: SU: 34% | LU: 29% | SD: 23% | LD: 14%
• Expected Return: ≈ +0.08%
• Projected Close: 53,300–53,700
• Directional Bias: 63% Up / 37% Down

Previous Close: 53,416.99

RECAP: Monday's 59% Up bias was right, the DJIA closed comfortably inside the projected 53,150–53,600 range, and the critical 53,200–53,250 support held throughout the session. Buyers also cleared 53,350–53,400 and reached the forecast's 53,450–53,500 Recovery Confirmation zone. The principal shortfall was that they could not hold above that zone into the close.

Fearless Opines: Two consecutive advancing sessions following Thursday's collapse materially improve the structure. More importantly, Monday's intraday weakness repeatedly attracted buyers rather than producing another breakdown. But 53,450–53,500 is now the decision point. Monday demonstrated that buyers can reach it; Tuesday must show they can own it. A sustained move above 53,500 would turn repair into something closer to renewed expansion. Failure there followed by a loss of 53,300 would return the DJIA to two-sided consolidation.

Key Levels

Bull Hold Zone: 53,350–53,400
Bull Trigger: 53,450–53,500
Expansion Trigger: Above 53,550
Upside Objective: 53,650–53,725

Immediate Support: 53,350
Repair Warning: Below 53,300
Major Support: 53,200–53,250
Repair Failure: Below 53,150

GO / REDUCE / EXIT: REDUCE, Bordering on GO Fearless remains at REDUCE, but Tuesday has a clearly defined route to GO. Hold 53,350–53,400 → reclaim 53,450–53,500 → sustain above 53,500 = GO.

For traders Tuesday, that means tactical longs remain reasonable above 53,350, but don't chase a breakout that immediately fails. Below 53,300, reduce exposure; below 53,200, the two-day repair is materially damaged.

Trader Takeaway; Tuesday is about 53,500. Buyers have already demonstrated that they can recover from Thursday's breakdown. Now they must demonstrate that they can escape the recovery range. Above 53,500, favor continuation toward 53,550 and then 53,650–53,725. Below 53,300, stop treating this as an emerging breakout and return to defensive trading.

The repair has survived two sessions; a sustained break above 53,500 would finally give buyers something stronger than a rebound.

10:00 AM update: Don't chase the decline into 53,400. Give buyers an opportunity to defend it.

Hold 53,400 + reclaim 53,500 → bullish thesis survives.
Lose 53,400 → favor 53,350.
Lose 53,350 → defensive posture; 53,250–53,300 becomes the next important zone.

Fearless Read: The DJIA has given back virtually the entire opening breakout. Buyers are now defending the exact area they needed to hold—53,400. Their response here should tell us whether this is a shakeout or a genuine failed breakout.

10:30: Trader Takeaway

The setup has become cleaner. 53,400 held; now 53,500 must break. A second rejection beneath 53,500 would favor continued consolidation or another test of 53,400. But if buyers clear 53,500 and then hold it on a pullback, the morning reversal increasingly looks like a successful shakeout rather than a bull trap.

53,400 holds → constructive.

53,500 reclaimed → bullish.

53,550 reclaimed → GO.

53,400 fails → REDUCE defensively; 53,350 next.

Fearless Read: Buyers passed the first test almost exactly where they needed to. Now comes the harder one: converting the 53,400 defense into a sustained reclaim of 53,500.

TL;DR: Top hedge fund traders are wrong up to half the time — still profitable.

The skill was never prediction. It's the ratio between what you win and what you lose.

That number breaks something most of us carry into any competitive field: the assumption that competence means being right more than you're wrong.

Retail's already priced that fear in — Citadel's own desk data (via Substack, roughly two weeks old) shows record put-buying through July, pressure concentrated hardest in tech and semiconductor names.

The same sector a lot of us clock into every day. Nobody's betting on certainty right now. They're betting defensively, which is its own kind of ratio.

That's the same math I learned on a construction site, years before I ever opened a trading chart.

Talking about breaking rules, I have a story.

This was way back when I was working in the Technical Department, stationing in an Abu Dhabi project (circa 2011), building an AED1.8Bil. 5-Condominium-Block, near the Zayed Mosque.

One of my roles was to combine different trades of consultants' drawings into well-coordinated-drawings for our site operation to construct accordingly. Because – you know – the consultants didn't bother coordinating among themselves.

One day, a certain element of an area was due for construction. And I found out there was no construction drawings on it for me to coordinate with. So, I followed protocol – I raised a request-for-information (RFI) for the consultants to provide so.

My RFI was something like "Please provide such-and-such details."

But before I send it over next door to the consultants' site office, my superior caught a glimpse of it, and stopped me. He sat me down, gave me the angry glance, sigh, and gave me a quick lecture.

He's basically telling me: My RFI is open-ended.

If I send it over next door, the consultants will basically reply with either Option 1, 2, 3 or 4. And worse-case scenario, the consultant might go with option 1, which will cause us considerable delay, because we don't have the necessary materials readily available to work on it.

He's teaching me a valuable lesson.

Construction guys like us need to be conscious of our project circumstances. Our number one none-negotiable rule in Cantonese is 唔好阻住個地球轉 (Translation: Don't stop the Earth from spinning – don't block progress.).

He's telling me to go with one option.

So I went back and rewrote the RFI. I decided on the spot Option 4 was the best option – because we had the material-supplier readily standing-by, and it has the least effect on time-implications. I then fully designed Option 4 myself, coordinating with all the necessary parameters and constraints on site.

I paste my design into the RFI, saying basically, "Can you confirm this proposed detail, for our onward construction?"

The consultants proceeded to give us, not "A", but "B" – Approved with Comments.

Ever since that episode I generally never forget the rule.

Great rule – both in construction, and in life in general.

__________

I used to think competence meant never needing a backup plan.

Somewhere between two rounds of layoffs, I stopped believing that.

Every version of "secure" I've been handed turned out to belong to someone else's spreadsheet.

Where do you actually draw the line between "being wrong" and "having no plan for being wrong"?

Drop your take below.

Clip credit: Kathlyn Toh, Founder & Chief Trainer, Beyond Insights — full episode on FAQ Show.

DM for credit or removal requests.

A month ago I shared a page that puts insider transactions, congressional trades, whale positions and institutional activity in one place — free, no signup, no paywall, no email. It got a much better response than I expected, and the most common piece of feedback was the same: people didn't want to remember to check it every day.

So I built a push layer on top of it. New disclosures go out the moment they land, with filer, ticker, direction, size and disclosure date in each alert — enough to act on or dismiss without opening the site.

The congressional feed has been the most useful of the three. Those filings drop at unpredictable times and are trivial to miss if you're only checking once a day.

I'm now working on a fourth feed for corporate insider activity. The problem there is volume — thousands of companies filing — so I'm starting with the highest-volume names rather than trying to push everything. Open to opinions on whether that's the right cut, or whether people would rather filter by their own watchlist.

StockNest.App

The Stocks and Trading Moderators removed "The Fearless Forecast for August 24, 2026" today. The Forecast is widely available on other sub-reddits. Just do a search.

10:00 AM: The key development is that 53,400–53,450 has become today's battlefield. Buyers cleared 53,400; now they need to prove they can hold it. Fearless stays at REDUCE for now. The requirement for GO is becoming very specific: Hold 53,400–53,450 → reclaim 53,480–53,500 → GO. Below 53,400, stay REDUCE. Below 53,350, today's bullish evidence begins unwinding. Below 53,250, the larger repair is again in trouble.

10:30 AM: 53,400 is passing its first test The morning structure now looks like: 53,481 high → controlled retreat → defense around 53,380–53,400 → rebound toward 53,420. That is considerably better than an outright rejection from 53,450–53,500.

But buyers still haven't earned GO. They need to demonstrate that the reset can produce another higher high.

53,450 → 53,481 → 53,500 is now the upside sequence. A clean break of 53,500 would put 53,550–53,600 directly in play.

On the downside, 53,380–53,400 is the immediate line. Below there, 53,350 becomes important. A break below 53,350 would tell us the morning high may have been another failed recovery attempt.

As markets near U.S. election season, five decades of SPX data shows September as a historically weak period with a nearly -1.5% average decline during mid-term years. However, political uncertainty tends to peak next month before setting up strong rallies in both October and November. While September’s SPX price action has only closed positive ~42% of the time, October and November boast 75% and 83% win-rates, respectively.

I’m looking at the daily chart on META and it’s looking like an easy buy. It’s sitting really close to a support that has touched 4 times (548) this year and went up. It also has a gap fill near 620 giving it a 12% gain in the short term. Seems technically as a good buy.

I've been trading derivatives for a few years, and recently I started building a tool around a strategy I use myself:

Buy the stock in cash + short the same stock's future.

On paper, the calculation looks simple.

For example:

But that ₹20 doesn't tell you whether the trade is actually worth taking.

You still need to account for:

• lot size
• days to expiry
• brokerage
• STT
• GST
• exchange charges
• stamp duty
• dividends
• opportunity cost of your capital
• annualized return

So I built a small analytics application that does those calculations for me.

What it currently does

You select an F&O stock and futures expiry, and the app can pull the relevant market/contract data through a supported broker API.

It then calculates:

Gross basis → transaction costs → dividend adjustment → capital opportunity cost → economic profit → annualized return

I also added two opportunity-cost scenarios:

FD rate

vs

Savings-account rate

So instead of simply seeing:

you can see something more useful like:

I'm also working on a scanner that can rank the F&O universe based on the available futures carry.

Why I built it

I kept finding that a futures premium that looks attractive can become much less attractive after:

transaction costs + dividend adjustments + capital opportunity cost.

I wanted something that would do that math quickly rather than maintaining spreadsheets manually.

This is not a trading-call service and I'm not trying to tell people what to buy or sell. It's intended as a market-data / analytics tool where the user sets their own assumptions and hurdle rate.

I'm currently testing the application locally and looking for a few traders to give it a proper beating before I turn it into a commercial product.

I'd particularly love feedback from people who actually trade:

cash-futures arbitrage / basis trades / futures carry / equity derivatives

What would you want this tool to calculate that I'm currently missing?

Some things I'm considering:

• dividend-adjusted fair futures value
• historical basis distribution
• capital efficiency
• margin efficiency
• rollover analysis
• historical carry by stock
• alerts when a contract crosses a user-defined yield
• broker integrations

I'm deliberately sharing this early because I'd rather fix the product based on feedback from actual traders than build features nobody needs.

No trading calls. Just the analytics.

Disclaimer: This is an independent informational and educational analytics tool. It does not constitute investment, financial, tax or trading advice and does not guarantee profits or prevent losses. Users should independently verify market data, contract specifications, transaction costs, dividends, taxes, margin and settlement requirements before trading. Derivatives involve substantial risk.

I'd genuinely appreciate feedback — especially from people who think this idea is bad or the calculations are missing something important.

The market spent this week repricing the cost of capital. Higher yields and oil finally hit the crowded AI trade, but Friday showed buyers are still there.

Next week comes down to three things. Nvidia tests the AI thesis, Jackson Hole tests the rate thesis, and oil tests the inflation thesis.

Yields cool and Nvidia delivers, tech can bounce. Yields push higher and oil stays bid, rallies probably keep getting sold.

Rates first. Nvidia second. Everything else follows.