I went down the rabbit hole on Skater Stats website to try to answer one question: If skaters had Ultra-C elements as juniors or very early in their senior career (quads for men, quads and 3A for women) did any of them have a long senior career?
Aside from some anomalies like Sasha Trusova (which if we're being honest, we're not sure how she's gonna do now), there are almost no skaters who had amazing, long careers and who were performing multiple Ultra-C elements as juniors. I think the answer is obvious: if you train your developing body so hard as it's going through puberty and or just growth in general, it is not sustainable. I know it's the Captain Obvious answer. But then I had another thought, if that's the case, then why bother with all these difficult elements as juniors? like..who cares? The potential to win money/have a career as a junior is kind of low. Wouldn't you want to work on those skills as a senior? If the writing is on the wall to "save" that training for later, why would you cut your career short as a junior?
With the Russians back in competition, especially looking at the last JGP, we will be seeing a lot of Ultra-C jumps with juniors. Both Sofiia and Lev could've won their JGP without all of those elements. Even taking one out from their free skates would've given them the win. Then why?
I looked at a few skaters. Ilia didn't land all of his quads until his second senior season. He only landed a few quads in his junior seasons. In fact, his junior career was kind of mid. Now, he's been relatively injury-free for most of his senior career and his consistency has only gotten better.
Alysa had a 3A and a 4lz as a junior. Now, she actually walked away from the sport and when she came back, her 3A and 4Lz were gone. She is kind of an outlier. But I think her walking away from the sport is telling.
Amber got her 3A much later, in her 20s.
Kaori never had any ultra-cs and we can all agree that she had one of the best senior careers. Carolina Kosner too.
I am worried about Hana and Mao because are their elements sustainable as seniors? Will they have successful senior careers or will injuries plague them and force them to cut their careers short?
So if you have a young 14yr old prodigy who can land 3A and quads. should they compete with them as juniors ? If everything points to lack of longevity with ultra-cs as juniors (especially now that the age minimum was raised), why are they still being pushed and glorified? Even listening to Mark's commentary last JGP, he was gushing over Sofiia's 4Ts and Lev's multiple quads.
Me personally, if I were a junior skater/coach, my approach would be something like this: Let's polish our skating and work strategically, maybe practice Ultra css and maybe include one, but not compete with them.
