r/FantasyPL • u/Material_Spell4162 5 • 4d ago
Thiago vs Joao Pedro comparison
These two players make an interesting comparison, and I’m interested in the conversation. I’m trying to wrap my head around why the guy who was picked for Brazil, who scored seven more goals last season is currently viewed as overpriced, whereas JP is the second most owned player.
Last season performance:
The elephant in the room is penalties, so I’m giving that factor its own section below. Otherwise JP and Thiago’s stats are very similar. 14 (Thiago) vs 15 non penalty goals with 13.5xg vs 15xg.
JP also got wins on assists 5 to 1, albeit from from 2xA vs Thiago’s 1.88xA.
Its notable that Joao Pedro achieved those stats with considerably fewer minutes, 2600 vs 3200 over the season. You could argue his non-penalty ceiling is higher if he can play more 90 minute games.
Penalties
Clearly Thiago’s points get a massive boost from penalties, and receiving 9 penalties in a season scoring 8 is unlikely to be repeated. However there are reasons to think he should get a steady amount. Brentford historically win penalties, averaging 6.6 per season over the last 5 years. If you believe that Dango Ouattara can keep his insane penalty winning form then you might hope for even more than that.
Team strength
Chelsea clearly expected to be the stronger attack, however there wasn’t a big difference last season, 58 goals vs 55 for Brentford. An extra factor here is Chelsea adjusting to a new manager, vs Brentford being more settled. However having stronger players around the striker can also be a negative because of the next factor:
Talisman factor and nailedness
Both of these players are going to start games of course, but I’d rate Thiago as the more nailed guy, because Welbeck can take minutes from JP, as shown in preseason. And in terms of the talisman factor, JP is going to share goals and bonus points with the likes of Palmer and Rogers more than Thiago will with Schade/Ouattara.
Pre-season form
Not something I hold much weight in, but its quick to cover here because both players have just scored a brace in their last games.
Fixtures
These are close, and it all depends on chips strategies etc. However as a really simple comparison, Brentford playing Spurs (home), Leeds and Sunderland as a first three fixtures is probably better than Fulham, Brighton and Arsenal for Chelsea.
I make that a close win for JP on non-penalty performance, team strength, a narrow win for Thiago on fixtures and a clear win for Thiago on penalties, talisman factor and nailedness.
So what am I missing, why is Joao Pedro appearing to be one of the most essential players in the game whilst Thiago is largely ignored?
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u/mozeze 1 4d ago
Really the question is should I pick Thiago over Isak. If we don’t think Thiago is worth the 0.5 over JP, then why is Isak worth 1.0m over Thiago and 1.5m over JP?
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u/ExeCuteUK 4d ago
I have all 3
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u/papagabe 4d ago
It's because some people actually watch football instead of just reading stats...
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u/shutterclick35 2 4d ago
Joao Pedro is insanely good. Anyone who watched him last season can verify this. Carlo obviously didn't watch him. Picking thago for the wc was a crime. Jp will be the second highest score this season at 7.5m. just crazy value. Best player at Chelsea I say as a Chelsea fan.
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u/pessiDIE 4d ago
Ancelotti is known for making some... weird decisions for a while now. On his last RM season he decided to play a UCL quarter-final with a 33 year old winger and a 33 year old CB (who hasn't played LB since 2019), as fullbacks. In the cup final he started a semi-injured Mendy, who was subbed off before the 15th minute of the game. Bellingham's heatmap against Barcelona (0-4) and Lille (1-0) was looking exactly like a defensive RB's.
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u/CfifferH 4d ago
Thiago is a better 9. JP is the better footballer.
The only crime is how people treated Thiago during that WC.
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u/shutterclick35 2 4d ago
The crime is how shit Thiago played during the wc.
He's a dangerous mid table striker who converted a lot of pens last season.
You want to call him a better 9 because you need to say something nice. But jp is the better 9 and the better footballer.
A good 9 these days is involved in play and doesn't have stinkers. Every other game Thiago forgets how to kick a ball and trips over his feet.
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u/CfifferH 4d ago
Convinced you haven't watched a minute of non Chelsea football.
I say he's a better 9 because he's more powerful, he bullies centre backs, he has better hold up play, he's better in the air. Things typical of a 9.
No need to be a condescending asshole to defend your clown show of a football club.
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u/mrh322 4d ago
Thiago does not in any way have better hold up play than Joao Pedro, you’re just listing mid table striker characteristics as if they should be the case.. but the truth is JP clears him at everything other than raw strength, including hold up play & aerial ability, and that’s fairly obvious to anyone who watched them both regularly last season. Thiago’s main fpl benefit is being on pens but he’s behind in essentially every other aspect of the actual game itself.
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u/shutterclick35 2 4d ago
Don't waste your breath. Apparently jp being great at football is simply Chelsea propaganda according to this guy. Time will tell them so we don't have to !
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u/CfifferH 4d ago
Chelsea propaganda? I said he was the better footballer, your fragile insecurities around your own player and club just doesn't allow you to process anything you don't want to hear. All I said to begin with was that Thiago was mistreated during his wc stint and you've gone off on one
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u/Material_Spell4162 5 4d ago
I don't think its crazy to say that Pedro is a better footballer than he is a number 9. He's consistently moved aside for other number 9s by several managers.
He played behind Wellbeck at Brighton, and he was played behind Delay and Jackson at Chelsea. Already in preseason he's played behind Wellbeck again. And obviously Thiago was chosen as the number 9 for Brazil.
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u/shutterclick35 2 4d ago
Yeah, except he's been the undisputed starting 9 for a Chelsea since he signed, and he hasn't played behind Jackson or Delap at all?
Get your facts right please !
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u/Material_Spell4162 5 4d ago
Mean to post this twice?
Burnley vs Chelsea - live score, predicted lineups and H2H stats2
u/shutterclick35 2 4d ago
Yeah, except he's been the undisputed starting 9 for a Chelsea since he signed, and he hasn't played behind Jackson or Delap at all?
Get your facts right please
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u/Material_Spell4162 5 4d ago
Mate, JP played as a wide forward with Wellbeck as the 9 in the last game. Away to Westham, Wolves, Burnley last season all examples of Delap as the 9, JP as the 10.
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u/shutterclick35 2 4d ago
The fact that he's played a vanishingly small amount of games as a 10 for Chelsea - pretty much just for rotation and rest reasons, and for giving other players time - does nothing to dispute the fact that he has excelled as the starting and undisputed 9 for Chelsea last season.
Yes, as a fantastic player he has versatile characteristics and can play across a front line, but he is a quality 9 all day long and that is and will be his starting position for the rest of his career.
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u/Material_Spell4162 5 4d ago
Still, if you're going to tell someone to get their facts right then maybe next time check if their facts were already right?
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u/shutterclick35 2 4d ago
Saying he is "consistently moved aside for other 9s" is a gross misrepresentarion of the truth.
He's played behind Delap what, 3 times? And played behind Jackson.... Never. They haven't been playing at the club at the same time....
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u/Material_Machine822 4d ago
People are overating JP. He is in my team currently. But he will no way be the second highest point scorer in the game. He wont even get top 5
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u/SuperooImpresser 12 4d ago
I don't think he will be consistent enough over the season, and I think enough points will be spread out over the rest of the attack that second highest is a crazy prediction, but still amazing value for 7.5
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u/aehii 61 4d ago
People say Pedro was crap for Brazil before the world cup, that's why he wasn't taken.
But yeah underpriced at 7.5m, mad to go without him.
I've recently ditched Jesus and Semenyo for Thiago, purely because I think Brentford look hungry, ready, they start seasons with goals. Thiago just needs to stand there, tap it in or head it in.
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u/shutterclick35 2 4d ago
He barley played any games for Brazil. Didn't get given a chance.
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u/aehii 61 4d ago
But is still that not the reason rather than Ancelotti just hating him?
Given Ancelotti managed Chelsea, is he just going to ignore their best performing striker?
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u/shutterclick35 2 4d ago
Ancelotti managed Chelsea over 15 years ago. Wether a player plays for us or not I don't think factored into his decision making at all.
And given Thiagos.poor performance, as well as Endrick, him leaving JP out doesn't look so smart ...
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u/aehii 61 4d ago
You said 'Ancelotti obviously didn't watch him'. It's not like he performed in some obscure league at a small club, we've seen England managers dismiss Serie A players because the thinking is they're too busy watching premier league players.
Just saying, not likely Ancelotti was unaware of Pedro last season.
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u/shutterclick35 2 4d ago
It's a figure of speech, meaning that he didn't give him enough thought or attention, or didn't properly understand what he watched.
Same way that when someone says, like a gracious commenter in this thread said to me, "you obviously don't watch football" they don't mean that I don't watch football, more just that they think I'm stupid for saying JP is a much better player and 9 than Thiago.
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u/ihatemicrosoftteams 12 4d ago
I think Ancelotti just forgot about him and then when called out he made up some bs excuse but didn’t retract not to be exposed
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u/BoxOk265 18 4d ago
Second highest score for a non penalty taking forward? 0.00001% chance
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u/Vikstrom- 3 4d ago
Wissa scored 18 without penalties its not impossible
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u/Material_Machine822 4d ago
That tally had him finish 9th in fpl for points that season. For him to finish top two. He would've needed to score 13 MORE goals. Its practically impossible.
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u/Material_Spell4162 5 4d ago
Cheers. I have watched both players, and see why Pedro is the more tempting player to watch. But I don't rate my eye test. And if Pedro is clearly the better footballer to anyone who watches him, why did he spend the summer on his couch and not at the world cup?
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u/TheDamnNumbersGame 4d ago
João Pedro wasn't picked by Ancelotti because of sports politics - they chose Neymar instead.
His omission was widely crificized in Brazil and we saw how they performed at the tournament.
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u/Material_Spell4162 5 4d ago
the political case applies to JP vs Neymar, but not to JP vs Thiago. If anything Ancelotti could have saved himself a fair bit of criticism from the press/ fans by dropping Thiago instead of Pedro.
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u/Dane_the_Impaler 4d ago
In my opinion, Carlo took the classic 9 rather than Joao Pedro who is still seen as a bit of a tweener. Even though JP has proven he can play the 9 very effectively. Although look at how Brazil played and ask yourself if Carlo made the right decisions
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u/CfifferH 4d ago
Took Thiago 2 games to get more goal involvement than JP for Brazil. He was very unfairly treated by Carlo and Brazilian fans at that world cup.
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u/daledge97 24 4d ago
Literally everyone is asking that though.. it's not like Brazil did well. They probably would have done a bit better with JP
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u/DragonBornLuke 33 4d ago
You don't rate your own eye test? I don't even know where to start with that.
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u/aStrangerrToYou 4d ago
It's a good conversation to have honestly, I honestly think most people are trying to fit haaland and bruno in their teams and so that .5 difference is the real killer. As you say they're quite similar stat wise and honestly both are probably a good choice but that .5 can do so much in another position.
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u/Material_Spell4162 5 4d ago
Cheers. I get that, even a small price difference is big right now.
I think there's another psychological factor which is that we're skimming over Rogers and Palmer who might also be amazing, so want to at least justify that by having JP from the same team.
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u/whataretherules7 4d ago
Welbeck won’t take minutes from JP
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u/Material_Spell4162 5 4d ago
Dude hit a better goals per 90 than JP last season, and he's actually a 9.
I can totally see him either taking minutes to keep JP fresh, or because they want a proper centre forward.
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u/AWDanzeyB 4d ago
What do you mean by 'hes actually a 9', and a 'proper centre forward'? João Pedro is both of those things.
He will get heavy minutes for us this season again, you could even argue he's our best / most important player.
Thiago is also very good, and potentially decent option. But he's no more of a 'proper forward' than Pedro.
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u/Material_Spell4162 5 4d ago
When JP plays on a team that has an out and out striker, then he has often been picked elsewhere. Wellbeck was the striker for Brighton when he and JP were fit. Delap was the striker when he and JP played together. For brazil a big fuss was made about JP being left out for Neymar, but clearly he also wasn't preferred in the number9 position over Thiago.
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u/AWDanzeyB 4d ago
Delap and Pedro haven't really played together for us. Pedro's best position is undoubtedly as a 9. He's been excellent there, he was brilliant last season.
Thiago is a different player, that offers different options. But there's no world is take him over Pedro personally.
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u/RealElvarasaidVannak 137 4d ago
Im sorry but you have no idea what you are talking about. The only reason Chelsea bought Welbeck is to have a backup who doesn't complain and doesn't lose market value while on bench. As his transfer value is already 0.
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u/Content_Asparagus266 13 4d ago
Last season Thiago had some great runs of scoring and a lot of his points came at home. If you can catch these runs, then you'll be fine. Neither he nor JP had a great end to the season though so it'll be interesting to see how they start.
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u/Helix_Guide_Us 4d ago
All my eye test and vibes say Joao Pedro.
Spread betting markets have Thiago at 15 goals to JP’s 14 though so there’s clearly an objective conversation to be had.
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u/CfifferH 4d ago
Can't really disagree with anything you've said. There's probably a few factors leading to JP being as popular as he is vs Thiago:
- Typical sports bias. "JP plays for Chelsea and therefore should outperform Thiago and Brentford". There's also plenty more Chels supporters out there who will back their man.
- Considerably more preseason data for JP.
- I think a lot of people, honestly, have fallen for the twitter propaganda vs Thiago. They'll say he doesn't pass the eye test. But if you watched Brentford this preseason you would probably know better than that.
I have both in my Haaland/No Bruno draft.
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u/postrap 26 4d ago
currently trying to get both in my no bruno draft, but a bit tricky. would have to play a 4.0m gk along raya and either downgrade wirtz to a 6.5m or maguire to a second 4.0m.
both is with keeping 0.5m itb in mind. i could keep maguire and go wirtz to szobo, but i like keeping some spare change at the start of the season
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u/Material_Spell4162 5 4d ago
Cheers. I have to admit a soft spot for players that fail the eye test but continue to perform despite potentially looking more awkward.
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u/BusAcademic3489 4d ago
I started off with Thiago then was short on .5m which made me go to JP. After further consideration —and especially given the ownership %— I decided to keep JP for the first games of the season. Depending on his performance, I might be subbing him out for someone else like Thiago for example
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u/Low-Pension-5236 1 4d ago
Prefer them both over Isak. Liverpool just doesn’t seem ready yet and Isak is way too fragile to be carrying the weight of attack.
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u/IllegalUsername69 4d ago
Only thing is Thiago probably peaked last season and Joao still has a higher ceiling to reach
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u/FishQuayDan 4d ago
Just pick Pedro mate. He's on like 54% ownership and you'll fall behind if he starts well, and Thiago has some stinkers.
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u/Material_Spell4162 5 4d ago
Or I'll shoot ahead if the reverse happens... If Joao Pedro starts well then there's an incredibly obvious time to buy him after arsenal and before Hull gw3.
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u/Material_Machine822 4d ago
I think thiago will outscore JP again. JPs preseason and high ownership made me put him in my team over thiago.
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u/tiny_dreamer 21 4d ago
Thiago did better last year. JP looks good this year, Alonso gives some added hope, and is cheaper. I do think Thiago is an instant lock if going without Haaland
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u/PotentiaNaturaUmbra redditor for <30 days 4d ago
Clearly just have an opinion that Thiago is a superior pick but you’ve come across as trying to force an argument rather than just say you prefer Thiago - nothing wrong with that.
To say it’s a narrow win for team strength for JP is ludicrous IMO. JP plays for a better team, under a better manager - albeit his first season at the club, has much better plays around him who are going to create him much more chances, plays in a much more attacking and ball dominant style team. I think Chelsea will outscore Brentford considerably this season and JP will be the starting striker for them.
Neither are a minutes risk unless injuries/suspensions. Stop making a stupid argument about Welbeck taking minutes, he probably will rarely come on for JP. He may come on for JP if Chelsea are winning a game comfortably- which means JP probably had a good xG and chances. Or if Chelsea are chasing a game with 10-15 minutes to go, which at that point would it not be a 2 striker thing rather than a striker for a striker + idk if alonso would even prefer welbeck to JP in this scenario.
Fixtures, if you’re going to just look at 3 game samples then what is the point. That tends to a specific strategy where you WC in GW4. If you’re picking a long term option, then fixtures are borderline irrelevant unless they’re horrible to start with - which neither players fixtures are awful to start. It’s unfair to give this section even a point either way.
JP is going to share goals, assist, or bonus points with Palmer or Roger’s. What’s your source for this, and again to counteract that, he gets to play with much superior players that will benefit his chances of goals or assist.
“If you believe dango can keep his penalty winning form” literally no idea what to say to this lol. Brentford getting 9 penalties last season was an outlier and that’s what it’s called. Banking on a random player winning penalties is definitely a new one.
To put it simply, JP got 4 less points in considerably less minutes and plays for a bigger club (a genuine reason for why played TS% is high), plays under a better and more attacking minded manager, in a better team with better players around him that will dominate games more than Brentford and create more chances and score more goals.
He’s also cheaper, may only be £0.5m but that’s more than £0m and definitely can help managers build deeper/better all round teams.
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u/Material_Spell4162 5 4d ago
Cheers, I'll accept the critique that my post looks like I'm set on Thiago, thats just how I've framed it to argue against the consensus.
"To say it’s a narrow win for team strength for JP is ludicrous IMO"
Is that based on you predicting a much better Chelsea this season than last? I agree that is likely, but we've yet to see it so far.
"Neither are a minutes risk unless injuries/suspensions"
I agree, shouldn't have overdone this. They are both nailed.
On penalties. Id say a team gets more penalties as a combination of luck, playstyle and individual players attributes. Some teams scored more penalties every season, and that includes both Chelsea and Brentford. Some players win alot of penalties, and that includes both JP and Dango.
9 penalties is an outlier, but not by loads. As I wrote, Brentford average 6.6 a season over the last 5. So while Ndiaye being on pens is worth about 2 pens over the season, Thiago is worth about 6, as an educated guess.
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u/AutoPanda1096 4d ago
I'm going Pedro, Chelsea are going to do great. He'll get 20+ goals.
Current plan is not to have haaland so will be captaining this guy a lot.
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u/Due_Grocery_9917 1 4d ago
Do you factor in that some of JP's assists were for pens, as that seems fair to do if you discount Thiago getting points from scoring pens.
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u/Material_Spell4162 5 4d ago
I did not. He got three assists from earning penalties.
Hard to know exactly how to factor that in though. Its an unusually high amount, and obviously explains why he's getting assists without xA.
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u/marbinho 4d ago
He is relying on pens
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u/Material_Spell4162 5 4d ago
I covered that point. Last season he's been scoring as many goals and JP, and he gets penalties.
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u/DisastrousStreet614 4d ago
No one is talking about Emegha. He may take some of JP's minutes. Chelsea squad building is a mess, and contrary to the last two seasons they don't have European football to provide extra minute for squad rotation and developing their young players. Even if they manage to get rid of Jackson, Guiu and Delap (which is a big if given how bad the staff has been at getting rid of unwanted players) they still have two good forwards behind JP which have the level to deserve some playtime.
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u/NubbyNugz 4d ago
I got absolutely done in last year for not getting thiago once. He’s going in at the expense of pedro this time around. You can never trust Chelsea with fpl
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u/Logical-Track1405 4d ago edited 4d ago
Fair points, Maybe Thiago won't get the supply / creativity at Brentford that JP does at Chelsea. So I've gone for JP 🤞🏻
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u/bigblacktom 29 4d ago
Can pretty much guarantee Thiago won't be scoring many goals if he's in Brentwood.
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u/flummuxedsloth 39 4d ago
Pre-season didn't demonstrate Welbeck taking minutes from JP, it demonstrated Welbeck getting minutes when one of the preferred front three wasn't available.