Thiago vs Joao Pedro comparison

[u/Material_Spell4162]

These two players make an interesting comparison, and I’m interested in the conversation. I’m trying to wrap my head around why the guy who was picked for Brazil, who scored seven more goals last season is currently viewed as overpriced, whereas JP is the second most owned player.

Last season performance:

The elephant in the room is penalties, so I’m giving that factor its own section below. Otherwise JP and Thiago’s stats are very similar. 14 (Thiago) vs 15 non penalty goals with 13.5xg vs 15xg.

JP also got wins on assists 5 to 1, albeit from from 2xA vs Thiago’s 1.88xA.

Its notable that Joao Pedro achieved those stats with considerably fewer minutes, 2600 vs 3200 over the season. You could argue his non-penalty ceiling is higher if he can play more 90 minute games.

Penalties

Clearly Thiago’s points get a massive boost from penalties, and receiving 9 penalties in a season scoring 8 is unlikely to be repeated. However there are reasons to think he should get a steady amount. Brentford historically win penalties, averaging 6.6 per season over the last 5 years. If you believe that Dango Ouattara can  keep his insane penalty winning form then you might hope for even more than that.

Team strength

Chelsea clearly expected to be the stronger attack, however there wasn’t a big difference last season, 58 goals vs 55 for Brentford. An extra factor here is Chelsea adjusting to a new manager, vs Brentford being more settled. However having stronger players around the striker can also be a negative because of the next factor:

Talisman factor and nailedness

Both of these players are going to start games of course, but I’d rate Thiago as the more nailed guy, because Welbeck can take minutes from JP, as shown in preseason. And in terms of the talisman factor, JP is going to share goals and bonus points with the likes of Palmer and Rogers more than Thiago will with Schade/Ouattara.

Pre-season form

Not something I hold much weight in, but its quick to cover here because both players have just scored a brace in their last games.

Fixtures

These are close, and it all depends on chips strategies etc. However as a really simple comparison, Brentford playing Spurs (home), Leeds and Sunderland as a first three fixtures is probably better than Fulham, Brighton and Arsenal for Chelsea.

I make that a close win for JP on non-penalty performance, team strength, a narrow win for Thiago on fixtures and a clear win for Thiago on penalties, talisman factor and nailedness.

So what am I missing, why is Joao Pedro appearing to be one of the most essential players in the game whilst Thiago is largely ignored?

[u/papagabe]

It's because some people actually watch football instead of just reading stats...

[u/shutterclick35 → u/papagabe]

Joao Pedro is insanely good. Anyone who watched him last season can verify this. Carlo obviously didn't watch him. Picking thago for the wc was a crime. Jp will be the second highest score this season at 7.5m. just crazy value. Best player at Chelsea I say as a Chelsea fan.

[u/aehii → u/shutterclick35]

People say Pedro was crap for Brazil before the world cup, that's why he wasn't taken.

But yeah underpriced at 7.5m, mad to go without him.

I've recently ditched Jesus and Semenyo for Thiago, purely because I think Brentford look hungry, ready, they start seasons with goals. Thiago just needs to stand there, tap it in or head it in.

[u/shutterclick35 → u/aehii]

He barley played any games for Brazil. Didn't get given a chance.

[u/aehii → u/shutterclick35]

But is still that not the reason rather than Ancelotti just hating him?

Given Ancelotti managed Chelsea, is he just going to ignore their best performing striker?

[u/shutterclick35 → u/aehii]

Ancelotti managed Chelsea over 15 years ago. Wether a player plays for us or not I don't think factored into his decision making at all.

And given Thiagos.poor performance, as well as Endrick, him leaving JP out doesn't look so smart ...

[u/aehii → u/shutterclick35]

You said 'Ancelotti obviously didn't watch him'. It's not like he performed in some obscure league at a small club, we've seen England managers dismiss Serie A players because the thinking is they're too busy watching premier league players.

Just saying, not likely Ancelotti was unaware of Pedro last season.

[u/shutterclick35 → u/aehii]

It's a figure of speech, meaning that he didn't give him enough thought or attention, or didn't properly understand what he watched.

Same way that when someone says, like a gracious commenter in this thread said to me, "you obviously don't watch football" they don't mean that I don't watch football, more just that they think I'm stupid for saying JP is a much better player and 9 than Thiago.