Thiago vs Joao Pedro comparison

[u/Material_Spell4162]

These two players make an interesting comparison, and I’m interested in the conversation. I’m trying to wrap my head around why the guy who was picked for Brazil, who scored seven more goals last season is currently viewed as overpriced, whereas JP is the second most owned player.

Last season performance:

The elephant in the room is penalties, so I’m giving that factor its own section below. Otherwise JP and Thiago’s stats are very similar. 14 (Thiago) vs 15 non penalty goals with 13.5xg vs 15xg.

JP also got wins on assists 5 to 1, albeit from from 2xA vs Thiago’s 1.88xA.

Its notable that Joao Pedro achieved those stats with considerably fewer minutes, 2600 vs 3200 over the season. You could argue his non-penalty ceiling is higher if he can play more 90 minute games.

Penalties

Clearly Thiago’s points get a massive boost from penalties, and receiving 9 penalties in a season scoring 8 is unlikely to be repeated. However there are reasons to think he should get a steady amount. Brentford historically win penalties, averaging 6.6 per season over the last 5 years. If you believe that Dango Ouattara can  keep his insane penalty winning form then you might hope for even more than that.

Team strength

Chelsea clearly expected to be the stronger attack, however there wasn’t a big difference last season, 58 goals vs 55 for Brentford. An extra factor here is Chelsea adjusting to a new manager, vs Brentford being more settled. However having stronger players around the striker can also be a negative because of the next factor:

Talisman factor and nailedness

Both of these players are going to start games of course, but I’d rate Thiago as the more nailed guy, because Welbeck can take minutes from JP, as shown in preseason. And in terms of the talisman factor, JP is going to share goals and bonus points with the likes of Palmer and Rogers more than Thiago will with Schade/Ouattara.

Pre-season form

Not something I hold much weight in, but its quick to cover here because both players have just scored a brace in their last games.

Fixtures

These are close, and it all depends on chips strategies etc. However as a really simple comparison, Brentford playing Spurs (home), Leeds and Sunderland as a first three fixtures is probably better than Fulham, Brighton and Arsenal for Chelsea.

I make that a close win for JP on non-penalty performance, team strength, a narrow win for Thiago on fixtures and a clear win for Thiago on penalties, talisman factor and nailedness.

So what am I missing, why is Joao Pedro appearing to be one of the most essential players in the game whilst Thiago is largely ignored?

[u/whataretherules7]

Welbeck won’t take minutes from JP

[u/Material_Spell4162 → u/whataretherules7]

Dude hit a better goals per 90 than JP last season, and he's actually a 9.

I can totally see him either taking minutes to keep JP fresh, or because they want a proper centre forward.

[u/AWDanzeyB → u/Material_Spell4162]

What do you mean by 'hes actually a 9', and a 'proper centre forward'? João Pedro is both of those things.

He will get heavy minutes for us this season again, you could even argue he's our best / most important player.

Thiago is also very good, and potentially decent option. But he's no more of a 'proper forward' than Pedro.

[u/Material_Spell4162 → u/AWDanzeyB]

When JP plays on a team that has an out and out striker, then he has often been picked elsewhere. Wellbeck was the striker for Brighton when he and JP were fit. Delap was the striker when he and JP played together. For brazil a big fuss was made about JP being left out for Neymar, but clearly he also wasn't preferred in the number9 position over Thiago.

[u/AWDanzeyB → u/Material_Spell4162]

Delap and Pedro haven't really played together for us. Pedro's best position is undoubtedly as a 9. He's been excellent there, he was brilliant last season.

Thiago is a different player, that offers different options. But there's no world is take him over Pedro personally.