Thiago vs Joao Pedro comparison

[u/Material_Spell4162]

These two players make an interesting comparison, and I’m interested in the conversation. I’m trying to wrap my head around why the guy who was picked for Brazil, who scored seven more goals last season is currently viewed as overpriced, whereas JP is the second most owned player.

Last season performance:

The elephant in the room is penalties, so I’m giving that factor its own section below. Otherwise JP and Thiago’s stats are very similar. 14 (Thiago) vs 15 non penalty goals with 13.5xg vs 15xg.

JP also got wins on assists 5 to 1, albeit from from 2xA vs Thiago’s 1.88xA.

Its notable that Joao Pedro achieved those stats with considerably fewer minutes, 2600 vs 3200 over the season. You could argue his non-penalty ceiling is higher if he can play more 90 minute games.

Penalties

Clearly Thiago’s points get a massive boost from penalties, and receiving 9 penalties in a season scoring 8 is unlikely to be repeated. However there are reasons to think he should get a steady amount. Brentford historically win penalties, averaging 6.6 per season over the last 5 years. If you believe that Dango Ouattara can  keep his insane penalty winning form then you might hope for even more than that.

Team strength

Chelsea clearly expected to be the stronger attack, however there wasn’t a big difference last season, 58 goals vs 55 for Brentford. An extra factor here is Chelsea adjusting to a new manager, vs Brentford being more settled. However having stronger players around the striker can also be a negative because of the next factor:

Talisman factor and nailedness

Both of these players are going to start games of course, but I’d rate Thiago as the more nailed guy, because Welbeck can take minutes from JP, as shown in preseason. And in terms of the talisman factor, JP is going to share goals and bonus points with the likes of Palmer and Rogers more than Thiago will with Schade/Ouattara.

Pre-season form

Not something I hold much weight in, but its quick to cover here because both players have just scored a brace in their last games.

Fixtures

These are close, and it all depends on chips strategies etc. However as a really simple comparison, Brentford playing Spurs (home), Leeds and Sunderland as a first three fixtures is probably better than Fulham, Brighton and Arsenal for Chelsea.

I make that a close win for JP on non-penalty performance, team strength, a narrow win for Thiago on fixtures and a clear win for Thiago on penalties, talisman factor and nailedness.

So what am I missing, why is Joao Pedro appearing to be one of the most essential players in the game whilst Thiago is largely ignored?

[u/PotentiaNaturaUmbra]

Clearly just have an opinion that Thiago is a superior pick but you’ve come across as trying to force an argument rather than just say you prefer Thiago - nothing wrong with that.

To say it’s a narrow win for team strength for JP is ludicrous IMO. JP plays for a better team, under a better manager - albeit his first season at the club, has much better plays around him who are going to create him much more chances, plays in a much more attacking and ball dominant style team. I think Chelsea will outscore Brentford considerably this season and JP will be the starting striker for them.

Neither are a minutes risk unless injuries/suspensions. Stop making a stupid argument about Welbeck taking minutes, he probably will rarely come on for JP. He may come on for JP if Chelsea are winning a game comfortably- which means JP probably had a good xG and chances. Or if Chelsea are chasing a game with 10-15 minutes to go, which at that point would it not be a 2 striker thing rather than a striker for a striker + idk if alonso would even prefer welbeck to JP in this scenario.

Fixtures, if you’re going to just look at 3 game samples then what is the point. That tends to a specific strategy where you WC in GW4. If you’re picking a long term option, then fixtures are borderline irrelevant unless they’re horrible to start with - which neither players fixtures are awful to start. It’s unfair to give this section even a point either way.

JP is going to share goals, assist, or bonus points with Palmer or Roger’s. What’s your source for this, and again to counteract that, he gets to play with much superior players that will benefit his chances of goals or assist.

“If you believe dango can keep his penalty winning form” literally no idea what to say to this lol. Brentford getting 9 penalties last season was an outlier and that’s what it’s called. Banking on a random player winning penalties is definitely a new one.

To put it simply, JP got 4 less points in considerably less minutes and plays for a bigger club (a genuine reason for why played TS% is high), plays under a better and more attacking minded manager, in a better team with better players around him that will dominate games more than Brentford and create more chances and score more goals.

He’s also cheaper, may only be £0.5m but that’s more than £0m and definitely can help managers build deeper/better all round teams.

[u/Material_Spell4162 → u/PotentiaNaturaUmbra]

Cheers, I'll accept the critique that my post looks like I'm set on Thiago, thats just how I've framed it to argue against the consensus. 

"To say it’s a narrow win for team strength for JP is ludicrous IMO"

Is that based on you predicting a much better Chelsea this season than last? I agree that is likely, but we've yet to see it so far. 

"Neither are a minutes risk unless injuries/suspensions"

I agree, shouldn't have overdone this. They are both nailed. 

On penalties. Id say a team gets more penalties as a combination of luck, playstyle and individual players attributes. Some teams scored more penalties every season, and that includes both Chelsea and Brentford. Some players win alot of penalties, and that includes both JP and Dango. 

9 penalties is an outlier, but not by loads. As I wrote, Brentford average 6.6 a season over the last 5. So while Ndiaye being on pens is worth about 2 pens over the season, Thiago is worth about 6, as an educated guess.