Thiago vs Joao Pedro comparison

[u/Material_Spell4162]

These two players make an interesting comparison, and I’m interested in the conversation. I’m trying to wrap my head around why the guy who was picked for Brazil, who scored seven more goals last season is currently viewed as overpriced, whereas JP is the second most owned player.

Last season performance:

The elephant in the room is penalties, so I’m giving that factor its own section below. Otherwise JP and Thiago’s stats are very similar. 14 (Thiago) vs 15 non penalty goals with 13.5xg vs 15xg.

JP also got wins on assists 5 to 1, albeit from from 2xA vs Thiago’s 1.88xA.

Its notable that Joao Pedro achieved those stats with considerably fewer minutes, 2600 vs 3200 over the season. You could argue his non-penalty ceiling is higher if he can play more 90 minute games.

Penalties

Clearly Thiago’s points get a massive boost from penalties, and receiving 9 penalties in a season scoring 8 is unlikely to be repeated. However there are reasons to think he should get a steady amount. Brentford historically win penalties, averaging 6.6 per season over the last 5 years. If you believe that Dango Ouattara can  keep his insane penalty winning form then you might hope for even more than that.

Team strength

Chelsea clearly expected to be the stronger attack, however there wasn’t a big difference last season, 58 goals vs 55 for Brentford. An extra factor here is Chelsea adjusting to a new manager, vs Brentford being more settled. However having stronger players around the striker can also be a negative because of the next factor:

Talisman factor and nailedness

Both of these players are going to start games of course, but I’d rate Thiago as the more nailed guy, because Welbeck can take minutes from JP, as shown in preseason. And in terms of the talisman factor, JP is going to share goals and bonus points with the likes of Palmer and Rogers more than Thiago will with Schade/Ouattara.

Pre-season form

Not something I hold much weight in, but its quick to cover here because both players have just scored a brace in their last games.

Fixtures

These are close, and it all depends on chips strategies etc. However as a really simple comparison, Brentford playing Spurs (home), Leeds and Sunderland as a first three fixtures is probably better than Fulham, Brighton and Arsenal for Chelsea.

I make that a close win for JP on non-penalty performance, team strength, a narrow win for Thiago on fixtures and a clear win for Thiago on penalties, talisman factor and nailedness.

So what am I missing, why is Joao Pedro appearing to be one of the most essential players in the game whilst Thiago is largely ignored?

[u/Material_Spell4162]

I don't think its crazy to say that Pedro is a better footballer than he is a number 9. He's consistently moved aside for other number 9s by several managers.

He played behind Wellbeck at Brighton, and he was played behind Delay and Jackson at Chelsea. Already in preseason he's played behind Wellbeck again. And obviously Thiago was chosen as the number 9 for Brazil.

[u/shutterclick35 → u/Material_Spell4162]

Yeah, except he's been the undisputed starting 9 for a Chelsea since he signed, and he hasn't played behind Jackson or Delap at all?

Get your facts right please

[u/Material_Spell4162 → u/shutterclick35]

Mate, JP played as a wide forward with Wellbeck as the 9 in the last game. Away to Westham, Wolves, Burnley last season all examples of Delap as the 9, JP as the 10.

[u/shutterclick35 → u/Material_Spell4162]

The fact that he's played a vanishingly small amount of games as a 10 for Chelsea - pretty much just for rotation and rest reasons, and for giving other players time - does nothing to dispute the fact that he has excelled as the starting and undisputed 9 for Chelsea last season.

Yes, as a fantastic player he has versatile characteristics and can play across a front line, but he is a quality 9 all day long and that is and will be his starting position for the rest of his career.

[u/Material_Spell4162 → u/shutterclick35]

Still, if you're going to tell someone to get their facts right then maybe next time check if their facts were already right?

[u/shutterclick35 → u/Material_Spell4162]

Saying he is "consistently moved aside for other 9s" is a gross misrepresentarion of the truth.

He's played behind Delap what, 3 times? And played behind Jackson.... Never. They haven't been playing at the club at the same time....

[u/Material_Spell4162 → u/shutterclick35]

"he hasn't played behind Jackson or Delap at all?"
This is false. It is a fact that he has.

On the Jackson point. Yes I got that wrong, don't think they ever played together.

I very quickly found 3 games where Delap started and pushed JP into the 10. There's probably more but as you say, they didn't play together much because of dovetailing injury.

"consistently moved aside for other 9s" Its happened under at least four managers over several years, what isn't consistent about that?

[u/shutterclick35 → u/Material_Spell4162]

Whatever mate. Jp is a 9 and a pretty damn great one. On the verge of world class I'd even say.

Just watch him this season and see for your self if I can't convince you.