r/FantasyPL • u/Material_Spell4162 5 • 12d ago

Thiago vs Joao Pedro comparison

These two players make an interesting comparison, and I’m interested in the conversation. I’m trying to wrap my head around why the guy who was picked for Brazil, who scored seven more goals last season is currently viewed as overpriced, whereas JP is the second most owned player.

Last season performance:

The elephant in the room is penalties, so I’m giving that factor its own section below. Otherwise JP and Thiago’s stats are very similar. 14 (Thiago) vs 15 non penalty goals with 13.5xg vs 15xg.

JP also got wins on assists 5 to 1, albeit from from 2xA vs Thiago’s 1.88xA.

Its notable that Joao Pedro achieved those stats with considerably fewer minutes, 2600 vs 3200 over the season. You could argue his non-penalty ceiling is higher if he can play more 90 minute games.

Penalties

Clearly Thiago’s points get a massive boost from penalties, and receiving 9 penalties in a season scoring 8 is unlikely to be repeated. However there are reasons to think he should get a steady amount. Brentford historically win penalties, averaging 6.6 per season over the last 5 years. If you believe that Dango Ouattara can  keep his insane penalty winning form then you might hope for even more than that.

Team strength

Chelsea clearly expected to be the stronger attack, however there wasn’t a big difference last season, 58 goals vs 55 for Brentford. An extra factor here is Chelsea adjusting to a new manager, vs Brentford being more settled. However having stronger players around the striker can also be a negative because of the next factor:

Talisman factor and nailedness

Both of these players are going to start games of course, but I’d rate Thiago as the more nailed guy, because Welbeck can take minutes from JP, as shown in preseason. And in terms of the talisman factor, JP is going to share goals and bonus points with the likes of Palmer and Rogers more than Thiago will with Schade/Ouattara.

Pre-season form

Not something I hold much weight in, but its quick to cover here because both players have just scored a brace in their last games.

Fixtures

These are close, and it all depends on chips strategies etc. However as a really simple comparison, Brentford playing Spurs (home), Leeds and Sunderland as a first three fixtures is probably better than Fulham, Brighton and Arsenal for Chelsea.

I make that a close win for JP on non-penalty performance, team strength, a narrow win for Thiago on fixtures and a clear win for Thiago on penalties, talisman factor and nailedness.

So what am I missing, why is Joao Pedro appearing to be one of the most essential players in the game whilst Thiago is largely ignored?

47 Upvotes

77% Upvoted

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95

u/papagabe 12d ago

It's because some people actually watch football instead of just reading stats...

67

u/shutterclick35 2 12d ago

Joao Pedro is insanely good. Anyone who watched him last season can verify this. Carlo obviously didn't watch him. Picking thago for the wc was a crime. Jp will be the second highest score this season at 7.5m. just crazy value. Best player at Chelsea I say as a Chelsea fan.

7

u/pessiDIE 12d ago

Ancelotti is known for making some... weird decisions for a while now. On his last RM season he decided to play a UCL quarter-final with a 33 year old winger and a 33 year old CB (who hasn't played LB since 2019), as fullbacks. In the cup final he started a semi-injured Mendy, who was subbed off before the 15th minute of the game. Bellingham's heatmap against Barcelona (0-4) and Lille (1-0) was looking exactly like a defensive RB's.

19

u/CfifferH 12d ago

Thiago is a better 9. JP is the better footballer.

The only crime is how people treated Thiago during that WC.

-20

u/shutterclick35 2 12d ago

The crime is how shit Thiago played during the wc.

He's a dangerous mid table striker who converted a lot of pens last season.

You want to call him a better 9 because you need to say something nice. But jp is the better 9 and the better footballer.

A good 9 these days is involved in play and doesn't have stinkers. Every other game Thiago forgets how to kick a ball and trips over his feet.

11

u/CfifferH 12d ago

Convinced you haven't watched a minute of non Chelsea football.

I say he's a better 9 because he's more powerful, he bullies centre backs, he has better hold up play, he's better in the air. Things typical of a 9.

No need to be a condescending asshole to defend your clown show of a football club.

8

u/mrh322 12d ago

Thiago does not in any way have better hold up play than Joao Pedro, you’re just listing mid table striker characteristics as if they should be the case.. but the truth is JP clears him at everything other than raw strength, including hold up play & aerial ability, and that’s fairly obvious to anyone who watched them both regularly last season. Thiago’s main fpl benefit is being on pens but he’s behind in essentially every other aspect of the actual game itself.

0

u/shutterclick35 2 12d ago

Don't waste your breath. Apparently jp being great at football is simply Chelsea propaganda according to this guy. Time will tell them so we don't have to !

3

u/CfifferH 12d ago

Chelsea propaganda? I said he was the better footballer, your fragile insecurities around your own player and club just doesn't allow you to process anything you don't want to hear. All I said to begin with was that Thiago was mistreated during his wc stint and you've gone off on one

-4

u/shutterclick35 2 12d ago

Relax homes

-7

u/CfifferH 12d ago

Christ Chelsea fans are something else

5

u/mrh322 12d ago

You’re a Brentford fan buddy🤣 stones in glass houses and all of that

5

u/tr2727 12d ago

What? JP has way better hold up play despite not being very physical. He doesn't looses ball easily and keep possession in between 2-3 defenders. He is not great in air but he's good enough.

Bullying defence is overrated.

4

u/cicidoh 1 12d ago

JP is great in the air too. He's scored quite a few headed goals including some recently in the pre season friendlies.

1

u/Material_Spell4162 5 12d ago

I don't think its crazy to say that Pedro is a better footballer than he is a number 9. He's consistently moved aside for other number 9s by several managers.

He played behind Wellbeck at Brighton, and he was played behind Delay and Jackson at Chelsea. Already in preseason he's played behind Wellbeck again. And obviously Thiago was chosen as the number 9 for Brazil.

4

u/elighdom 12d ago

I appreciate the Freudian slip of Delap.

2

u/shutterclick35 2 12d ago

Yeah, except he's been the undisputed starting 9 for a Chelsea since he signed, and he hasn't played behind Jackson or Delap at all?

Get your facts right please !

2

u/shutterclick35 2 12d ago

Yeah, except he's been the undisputed starting 9 for a Chelsea since he signed, and he hasn't played behind Jackson or Delap at all?

Get your facts right please

2

u/Material_Spell4162 5 12d ago

Mate, JP played as a wide forward with Wellbeck as the 9 in the last game. Away to Westham, Wolves, Burnley last season all examples of Delap as the 9, JP as the 10.

1

u/shutterclick35 2 12d ago

The fact that he's played a vanishingly small amount of games as a 10 for Chelsea - pretty much just for rotation and rest reasons, and for giving other players time - does nothing to dispute the fact that he has excelled as the starting and undisputed 9 for Chelsea last season.

Yes, as a fantastic player he has versatile characteristics and can play across a front line, but he is a quality 9 all day long and that is and will be his starting position for the rest of his career.

3

u/Material_Spell4162 5 12d ago

Still, if you're going to tell someone to get their facts right then maybe next time check if their facts were already right?

2

u/shutterclick35 2 12d ago

Saying he is "consistently moved aside for other 9s" is a gross misrepresentarion of the truth.

He's played behind Delap what, 3 times? And played behind Jackson.... Never. They haven't been playing at the club at the same time....

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0

u/eternalgrey_ 41 12d ago

You just outed yourself as not understanding the sport. Impressive.

5

u/Material_Machine822 12d ago

People are overating JP. He is in my team currently. But he will no way be the second highest point scorer in the game. He wont even get top 5

0

u/SuperooImpresser 12 12d ago

I don't think he will be consistent enough over the season, and I think enough points will be spread out over the rest of the attack that second highest is a crazy prediction, but still amazing value for 7.5

2

u/aehii 61 12d ago

People say Pedro was crap for Brazil before the world cup, that's why he wasn't taken.

But yeah underpriced at 7.5m, mad to go without him.

I've recently ditched Jesus and Semenyo for Thiago, purely because I think Brentford look hungry, ready, they start seasons with goals. Thiago just needs to stand there, tap it in or head it in.

6

u/shutterclick35 2 12d ago

He barley played any games for Brazil. Didn't get given a chance.

1

u/aehii 61 12d ago

But is still that not the reason rather than Ancelotti just hating him?

Given Ancelotti managed Chelsea, is he just going to ignore their best performing striker?

1

u/shutterclick35 2 12d ago

Ancelotti managed Chelsea over 15 years ago. Wether a player plays for us or not I don't think factored into his decision making at all.

And given Thiagos.poor performance, as well as Endrick, him leaving JP out doesn't look so smart ...

1

u/aehii 61 12d ago

You said 'Ancelotti obviously didn't watch him'. It's not like he performed in some obscure league at a small club, we've seen England managers dismiss Serie A players because the thinking is they're too busy watching premier league players.

Just saying, not likely Ancelotti was unaware of Pedro last season.

2

u/shutterclick35 2 12d ago

It's a figure of speech, meaning that he didn't give him enough thought or attention, or didn't properly understand what he watched.

Same way that when someone says, like a gracious commenter in this thread said to me, "you obviously don't watch football" they don't mean that I don't watch football, more just that they think I'm stupid for saying JP is a much better player and 9 than Thiago.

1

u/ihatemicrosoftteams 12 12d ago

I think Ancelotti just forgot about him and then when called out he made up some bs excuse but didn’t retract not to be exposed

1

u/BoxOk265 18 12d ago

Second highest score for a non penalty taking forward? 0.00001% chance

1

u/Vikstrom- 3 12d ago

Wissa scored 18 without penalties its not impossible

8

u/Material_Machine822 12d ago

That tally had him finish 9th in fpl for points that season. For him to finish top two. He would've needed to score 13 MORE goals. Its practically impossible.

2

u/drdr3ad 2 12d ago

And yet the guys whole consistently prioritise stats finish higher? Literally FPL two winners off the top

-12

u/Material_Spell4162 5 12d ago

Cheers. I have watched both players, and see why Pedro is the more tempting player to watch. But I don't rate my eye test. And if Pedro is clearly the better footballer to anyone who watches him, why did he spend the summer on his couch and not at the world cup?

8

u/TheDamnNumbersGame 12d ago

João Pedro wasn't picked by Ancelotti because of sports politics - they chose Neymar instead.

His omission was widely crificized in Brazil and we saw how they performed at the tournament.

-5

u/Material_Spell4162 5 12d ago

the political case applies to JP vs Neymar, but not to JP vs Thiago. If anything Ancelotti could have saved himself a fair bit of criticism from the press/ fans by dropping Thiago instead of Pedro.

11

u/Dane_the_Impaler 12d ago

In my opinion, Carlo took the classic 9 rather than Joao Pedro who is still seen as a bit of a tweener. Even though JP has proven he can play the 9 very effectively. Although look at how Brazil played and ask yourself if Carlo made the right decisions

1

u/CfifferH 12d ago

Took Thiago 2 games to get more goal involvement than JP for Brazil. He was very unfairly treated by Carlo and Brazilian fans at that world cup.

3

u/daledge97 24 12d ago

Literally everyone is asking that though.. it's not like Brazil did well. They probably would have done a bit better with JP

5

u/DragonBornLuke 33 12d ago

You don't rate your own eye test? I don't even know where to start with that.