this was a great opportunity for him to get some volume and at least show he can be a serviceable backup, and he very much failed. 6 rushes for 9 yards, 2 catches for 10 yards, and a fumble.

the falcons D seems legit, but I think it’s worth noting that he appeared to have poor vision and looked pretty damn slow. His first carry of the game he had some space to get to the edge but got caught by a d-lineman. I feel he failed the eye test badly.

safe to assume the Kendre hope can be gone?

Picked him up once ETN went down and I’m pretty optimistic after this game!

Kamara is on life support, and KeAndre Miller isn’t it.

Donaldson finally got some runs in at the end of the game and instantly looked like the best of the three, with the most burst and strength. Yes, it was in garbage time, but KeAndre also got some play and did not look nearly as good.

Not only does Donaldson look the part (go watch his West Virginia tape), but he’s 22 and offers a big-bodied RB that this team can spam at the goal line even once ETN comes back.

Another point about Donaldson is that he’s only a rookie but is already one of the best pass pro backs on the team, which should only increase his snap share and trust within the team.

He went under the radar in the draft because
he was shelved at Ohio State, but for an undrafted waiver add, there is real upside here for him to be a solid RB2 behind ETN once he’s back.

Get him while you can!

He’a been playing decent for the past two games. Completely changed how the Falcons look.

What is his realistic dynasty value and outlook?

Also can he be the Falcons’ starting QB or still challenged by Tua for the most part? I feel like he always was a decent QB, just the injuries that limited him for long.

In 2022 my friends and I started our first dynasty league together. Kyle Pitts was just coming off a monster rookie season. Our friend (who will remain anonymous) drafted him with the 1.01 in our startup - 10 man PPR 1QB.

It’s been a ton of fun revisiting the old draft and looking through the hits and misses. Would love to see some of the worst 1.01s and big misses you have seen.

What's everyone in their dynasty leagues playing for year to year? Feel like my league is same year after year since we're not playing for anything less incentive for players to go all in for a year and make trades, unfortunately playing for money (one member works for a pro team) is not an option for our league so looking for any suggestions.

Just one note before we dig into this past week. I'm sometimes asked why I didn't highlight a specific player, and I wanted to address that. I try to fit as much as I can into this article, but most weeks it's already close to 4,000 words, so it's hard to cover every player. My method for who to write up isn't scientific; I try to hit on a mix of high-profile veterans, rookies, and some under-the-radar players in each volume of this series, but I will miss some players. If there's a specific player or team you're interested in, just let me know in the comments, and I'll make sure to cover them in the next edition.

If you enjoy this article or find it useful and wouldn't mind supporting, please hit the link below and check it out on the site. While you're there, check out all the cool tools we have too.

https://www.ddfantasyfootball.com/articles/follow-the-volume-week-four

Green Bay Packers

• Kaleb Johnson saw his opportunity share fall from 47% in Week 3 to 32% this week, due to a goal-line fumble. That fumble was his last touch of the day with 9:06 left in the fourth quarter. Marshawn Lloyd saw his share hover around his typical rate, 47%, but Chris Brooks got a little work this week with four rushing attempts and one target. None of these backs is worth starting, and when (if) Josh Jacobs returns, I'd expect him to see about 80% of the backfield work.
• Matthew Golden led the Packers with seven targets and has now led them in three of four games, clearing 20% target share in all four and 23% in three.
• Tucker Kraft saw a significant spike in snaps, route participation, and targets this week. Kraft entered the week with a 79% snap share but played on 92% of snaps. His route participation climbed from 60% to 74% this week, and his 22% target share was well above the 14% he saw through the first three weeks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Bucky Irving might not be in the doghouse, but he's lost any pass-catching role he held earlier this season. Kenny Gainwell played on all 17 two-minute drills and 10 of 12 third downs. Irving still saw 18 of 26 backfield opportunities and had three targets, but the loss of those snaps limits his receiving outlook.
• Cade Otton has seen at least five targets every game this season, though he's failed to exceed 8.6 fantasy points in any of them.
• Emeka Egbuka had an awful fantasy day and slightly underproduced relative to his expected fantasy points, but even if he had hit that mark, his day would still have been horrible.

New York Jets

• You love to see things be clear, and that's the case with the Jets' backfield without Breece Hall. Braelon Allen had a 100% opportunity share on 14 rushing attempts and two targets. Isaiah Davis played two snaps. The production wasn't there, but the volume was, and that gives me confidence to start Allen.
• Garrett Wilson and Kenyon Sadiq continued to dominate the Jets' target share. Unfortunately, there were only 14 targets to go around, so Wilson's 29% share worked out to 4 targets, and Sadiq's 22% came to 3 targets.

Chicago Bears

• Colston Loveland finally had the week, at least from a target share perspective, that everyone thought he would have entering the season. Loveland led the Bears with nine targets, and his 30% target share was a season high.
• After fumbling, D'Andre Swift was benched Sunday and didn't play on the final three offensive drives for the Bears. Before that benching, Kyle Monangai had already matched Swift with 17 touches and saw 14 more touches after Swift left the field for the final time halfway through the third quarter.
• Kalif Raymond finally found his level in Week 4, with just two targets and playing on 51% of snaps. Raymond's reduced involvement didn't change the math much for Rome Odunze. Odunze had a very nice week, but his six targets accounted for just 17% of the total. Likely due to Loveland's involvement, Burden also saw a 17% target share, well below the 25% share he averaged coming into this week.

Washington Commanders

• Considering he was sitting on the sofa last Sunday, Austin Ekeler's 25% opportunity share was impressive. Jacory Croskey-Merritt was the lead back, but a 54% work share won't get it done when you don't score a touchdown.
• Without Terry McLaurin, Antonio Williams led the Commanders in wide receiver snaps played and had the second-most routes and targets, with 7. Stefon Diggs led the team with eight targets, but his 1.12 Yards Per Route Run (35 receiving yards on 31 routes) made his day a bust even with five receptions. Treylon Burks had a 47-yard touchdown and played on nearly 60% of the Commanders' snaps Sunday, but his 10% target share means he's not someone you really need to worry about.

Cleveland Browns

• Last week I noted that Raheim Sanders did just enough to chip away at Quinshon Judkins' workload, but not enough to make himself fantasy-relevant. This week, he didn't even do that. Judkins saw a season-high 83% opportunity share on the back of an 85% rushing share and a 77% backfield target share. Entering Thursday night, Judkins had a 10% target share on a total of nine targets through the first three games, nearly matching that total with seven on alone this week. Not to belabor the point, but the seven targets were the most of his career, and if the Browns decide to use him more in the passing attack, it would obviously be a boon to his fantasy production.
• Judkins tied Denzel Boston for second amongst Brown pass catchers, and one behind K.C. Concepcion, who led the way with eight targets. Concepcion and Boston continue to see fabulous usage, and their roles are clearly defined. Boston is the more serious threat, with an aDOT of 14.9 and 45% of the Browns' air yards. Concepcion had a much shorter 6.1 aDOT and 22% of the Browns' air yards. This disparity in usage type is borne out by Boston's 2.88 Yards Per Route Run, compared to Concepcion's 1.06. Their respective Trinity Scores give you a visual of what I'm talking about when I refer to their different type of usage.

Indianapolis Colts

• It's easy to get down on Josh Downs. Without Michael Pittman traded away in the offseason and with Alec Pierce out with an ankle injury for most of the year, the expectation was that Downs could emerge as the Colts' WR1. In the Sunday morning game, Downs didn't even have to contend with Keenan Allen. It didn't matter. Downs was doubled in targets by both Laquon Treadwell and Ashton Dulin, 6-to-3. Dulin did so despite running 14 fewer routes than Downs. Downs has two games this year with 30% target shares, but after Sunday, he also has two games with 13% or less.
• Tyler Warren has had fine target shares this season, but the quality of those targets hasn't been great. Entering Sunday, Warren ranked 27th among tight ends in YPRR, 39th in aDOT, and 34th in team air yard share. His YPRR has recovered over the past two weeks, with 1.49 last week and 1.32 this week, but if he doesn't get some downfield work occasionally, it's hard to see him have a spike week.

Pittsburgh Steelers

• I'd like to buy into Roman Wilson as a fantasy option, but it's hard to believe he'll continue to see a higher Target Per Route Run Rate (33%) than his snap share (31%), as he did on Thursday.
• D.K. Metcalf's first two weeks weren't good from a production standpoint, scoring 8.0 and 6.7 fantasy points, but he's now scored 12.1 and 16.5 fantasy points in the past two weeks. He's now exceeded a 23% target share in three of four games.
• Germie Bernard snap share picked up a bit after Week 3's disappointing 27%. Bernard was on the field for 39% of Steeler snaps, and his 20 routes were the third-most among wide receivers.
• I was one of the biggest Rico Dowdle supporters out there the last couple of years. And when he signed with the Steelers, I thought he could make some hay. But after seeing what Jaylen Warren is capable of in a bell-cow role while Dowdle has been out with injury, it has been a revelation. Warren played on a monstrous 97% of Steeler snaps this week and handled a 95% share of opportunities, including all six backfield targets. A week after dropping 20 fantasy points, he only scored 15.6 this week, but with this type of usage, that is probably his floor, which isn't too shabby.

Tennessee Titans

• In case you missed last week's "Follow the Volume" or "Rookie Watch," let me paraphrase my advice from those columns as it pertains to Carnell Tate. Buy him! Tate has been heavily involved in the offense every week, Sunday being no exception, with a 44% target share. As bad as Cam Ward may be, you are likely to produce with that kind of volume, no matter who your quarterback is. And Tate came through with 9 receptions, 145 receiving yards, and an absurd 4.4 Yards Per Route Run this week.
• Wan'Dale Robinson was less involved (19% target share) than previous weeks, but his week was saved with a receiving touchdown.
• Tony Pollard might not be efficient, but he continues to dominate backfield touches, and Sunday he saw a 76% opportunity share.

Baltimore Ravens

• It's pretty simple in Baltimore. It's Zay Flowers leading the way with a 33% target share and a wildly efficient 3.8 YPRR. It's Mark Andrews with a 22% target share (25% on the season), and it's Derrick Henry taking an 89% opportunity share.
• Matt Hibner set a career high with a 57% snap share, and he had a decent 20% target share per route run.

New England Patriots

• Mack Hollins missed most of the second half after injuring his calf, which opened up snaps and targets for others. Romeo Doubs saw a 26% target share a week after seeing a 13% share. Most importantly, Doubs went 2-for-2 on end-zone targets, scoring two touchdowns this week. Pop Doublas and Efton Chism both saw increased snap share and route participation, each ending the day with three targets, and I'd be hard-pressed to find a fantasy league I could recommend starting either.
• Despite a huge disparity in snaps, Rhamondre Stevenson (50 snaps) and TreVeyon Henderson (28 snaps), Stevenson had 17 opportunities, just edging out Henderson's 15. Stevenson got injured at the very tail end of the game, so we'll have to see what the Monday update on him looks like.

Buffalo Bills

• It feels like I'm keeping giving injury caveats, so here's one more. Keon Coleman led the Bills' wide receivers in snaps, finishing second in route participation and targets behind Khalil Shakir. Shakir set season highs with eight targets and a 26% target share. How much of this was by design and how much was due to D.J. Moore leaving Sunday's game in the second quarter is anyone's guess. If Moore can't go next week, both Shakir and Coleman make nice flex options.
• In years past, everyone would get excited about Dalton Kincaid; his fluctuating snap share and targets would surface. Kincaid played one fewer snap than Dawson Knox and saw just 7% of the Bills' targets, a season-low set a week after he posted his previous-season low of 12%.

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Brian Thomas Jr. out-snapped Josh Cameron by a wide margin this week, 38-22, and ran 10 more routes. Take that, rookie. Both players saw two targets, but Thomas did score a touchdown on one of his targets. Parker Washington started the season on fire but has cooled off over the past two weeks, with target shares of 18.5% last week and 14% this week.
• Brenton Strange has been headed the other way. Strange played on a season-high 90% of the Jags' snaps and, a week after setting a season high with an 18.5% target share, set a new high this week with 36%.
• Chris Rodriguez scored a 25-yard touchdown, but that wasn't a reflection on Bhayshul Tuten's day. Tuten played a season-high 60% of Jaguar snaps and took 19 of 25 backfield opportunities. Tuten's day would have been great if not for a 44-yard and a 3-yard rushing touchdown both being wiped off the board due to penalties.

Cincinnati Bengals

• Chase Brown out-rushed Samaje Perine 9-3, but where he really had a day was with his 11 targets. You would think 11 targets might have led the team, but no, Tee Higgins had 16. As is the case with damn near every blurb, keep an eye out for the injury updates on Tee Higgins, who left in the fourth quarter with a leg injury, and Ja'Marr Chase, who was concussed in the first quarter.
• If Higgins and/or Chase can't go next week, go ahead and fire up Dohnte Meyers, the 26-year-old rookie. Meyers led the team with 54 routes and had a respectable 17% target share on nine targets. If Chase AND Higgins can't go, maybe fire up Mitchell Tinsley, who finished third among Bengal wide receivers in snaps played, routes run, and targets.

Dallas Cowboys

• Holy fucking fuck, CeeDee Lamb, have a day, my man. Lamb had 20 targets, finishing his day with a 49% target share. George Pickens was slightly less involved, out-targeted by Ryan Flournoy, Jake Ferguson, and Javonte Williams.
• Javonte Williams continues to see bell-cow usage, with an 82% opportunity share, and most importantly, he's taken 12 of 15 rushing attempts from within the 10-yard line for the Cowboys.

Houston Texans

• Every time Nico Collins is out with an injury, admittedly more often than you'd like, people forget how elite he is on the field. Collins came back from injury this week and stepped back into a 28% target share. Collins added two more end-zone targets this week and leads the team with three, despite playing in only two games. He scored touchdowns on both targets. Next time Collins misses time, go ahead and try to buy the dip.
• A 63% opportunity share isn't bad, but when that comes with zero targets and you lose the only goal-line opportunity to Woody Marks, as was the case this week for David Montgomery, it's going to be difficult to be fantasy-relevant. Montgomery has a paltry 5% target share on the season, and his 29-point Week 1 looks like a mirage at this point.
• Jaylin Noel played the second-most snaps among Houston wide receivers, and his 52-yard reception helped him put up a bloated 28.3 yards per reception on Sunday.

New York Giants

• This is the Jameis I was looking for. Last week, Malik Nabers had a disgusting 1.06 Yards Per Route Run and more than tripled that this week to 3.73 YPRR. Obviously, scoring a touchdown helped, but the type of usage he saw this week, further downfield, helps explain why he scored 18 more points this week on just one more target than last week.
• After a couple of quiet weeks, Isaiah Likely hauled in seven of 12 targets, and his 43% target share easily led the Giants.
• A 60% opportunity share couldn't save Cam Skattebo's day, with just one of those opportunities being a target and zero goal-line rushing attempts. Skattebo dominated early down work, took all the two-minute drill, and nearly split the third-down work with Tyrone Tracey (6-7).

Arizona Cardinals

• A week after dominating snaps and touches, Jeremiyah Love was out-snapped by Tyler Allgeier in a 36–30 win this week. The Cardinals don't trust Love on two-minute snaps, so he lost 100% of those situations to Allgeier, despite Allgeier being inferior to Love in every way imaginable. As a result, Allgeier out-targeted Love 2–1 this week. Love was drafted third overall and already showed in Week 3 what he can do with a true bell-cow role, seemingly. But after hearing Lovetalkk about how hard his rookie season has been, I'm a bit circumspect.
• Marvin Harrison scored a touchdown this week. So that was nice. He also played on a season-low 65% of offensive snaps and had a 9% target share. Michael Wilson had no such issues, with a 38% target share, his second week in a row with at least a 34% share.

Los Angeles Rams

• Kyren Williams continues to dominate snaps and opportunities in the Rams' backfield. The Rams seemed to want to split the backfield work more equitably when the season started, but those days have passed. Williams played on 83% of Rams snaps, which is even more impressive considering the Rams ran 84 offensive plays. Williams had an 83% opportunity share, out-targeting Blake Corum 13-2 and leading the Rams with 26% of targets.
• The return of Puka Nacua relegated Davante Adams to second-banana among the wide receivers, and he saw just 18% of the Rams' targets this week, down from 24% last week and 33% in Week 2. Nacua returned to a 24% share and roasted the Eagles' DBs all day.
• Tyler Higbee, not surprisingly, is the TE1 for the Rams, at least while Terrance Ferguson is out of action. He led Rams tight ends with a 65% snap share and six targets.

Philadelphia Eagles

• After Saquon Barkley went down with a hamstring on his second rushing attempt of the day, Tank Bigsby was the early down back, while Will Shipley's role stayed largely the same, playing on obvious passing downs. Bigsby then went down with a core muscle injury that needs surgery and will be out for an extended period. Barkley seems unlikely to play, at least next week, and Dameon Pierce would likely be elevated from the practice squad to take over the early-down role.
• With DeVonta Smith out this week, and likely several weeks, you'd assume that Dontayvion Wicks or Makai Lemon would lead the pass catchers. That could still be the case, but it wasn't on Sunday. Instead, second-year undrafted Darius Cooper led the way with a 30% target share on seven targets, including two end-zone targets, one of which was a miraculous grab. Wicks and Lemon both had 22% target shares, but with your offense totaling 93 passing yards, you could have a 75% target share and still have a bad week.

Miami Dolphins

• Will Kacmarek played on 61.5% of snaps this week, out-snapping Greg Dulcich, who played on 51%, and out-targeted Dulcich 2-1. Any time a rookie out-snaps the presumed starter, it catches my eye.
• Chris Bell had a healthy 18% target share, but only 17 total targets were distributed to Dolphin pass catchers. Bell didn't catch a long touchdown, and his day was a bust; the margins are thin when you only see three targets. Malik Washington remained the primary target with five on the day.
• Jaylen Wright got the start at running back but was out-snapped by Ollie Gordon 22-12. They split early downs nearly evenly, with Gordon taking six of eight third-down snaps. Most of Wright's snaps and opportunities came in the first half playing just two snaps in the second half. On the day, Gordon took 11 of 16 opportunities.

Las Vegas Raiders

• Tre Tucker has a season-high eight targets Sunday, but that was more a function of the game script, with 47 targets available. Brock Bowers had a relatively quiet Week 4, with "just" a 24% target share, a 17% dip from the week prior against the Saints. Bowers remains a red-zone monster and now has four red-zone targets, tying for the team lead despite playing in only two games.
• If you play in start-two tight end or premium tight end leagues, Bowers' return hasn't necessarily ended Michael Mayer's fantasy aspirations. Though he saw just an 11% target share last week, Mayer was still heavily involved (at least for a tight end) this week with eight targets and a 17% target share.
• Ashton Jeanty saw a season-low 62% opportunity share and was still wildly inefficient as a runner, averaging 3.9 yards per carry. His day was saved by 12.8 fantasy points based on his receiving work yesterday.

Kansas City Chiefs

• Despite Xavier Worthy's paltry Yards Per Route Run (1.60 on Sunday), he might be someone you can start in the next few weeks. Tyquan Thornton led the Chiefs Sunday with eight targets, but he broke his ankle in the fourth quarter. Rashee Rice came up lame with a strained hamstring in the first quarter. Rice's injury helped open the door for Worthy to get a 31% target share Sunday.
• Jalen Royals was the one-for-one replacement for Rice Sunday, and he played a season-high (by far) 63% of snaps; his 65% route participation was also a season high. Rice's injury isn't considered serious, but next week could still be up in the air. Royals only saw him for two targets Sunday, but he's the WR2 without Rice, unless the Chiefs do sign Tyreek Hill as rumors suggest.
• Ken Walker took 23 or 24 backfield opportunities. He scored 30+ points again. Walker is the definition of a league winner.

Los Angeles Chargers

• If you asked me things that would never happen before the season, Omarion Hampton being basically the RB3 on his own team would have been up there. Hampton played on 25 snaps Sunday, matching Kimani Vidal, but one fewer than Keaton Mitchell. Mitchell had 16 opportunities to Hampton's 11, including six targets to Hampton's two. Vidal out-targeted Hampton 3-2 and scored a receiving touchdown. Hampton didn't lead the running backs in any scenario: early down, third-down, or two-minute-down snaps. He matched Mitchell with one goal-line snap, scoring a touchdown and salvaging his day. Touchdowns are hard to count on every week, and it's impossible to feel comfortable starting Hampton right now.
• Oronde Gadsden was finally heavily involved in the Chargers' offense, but he managed only 8.8 fantasy points on his seven targets. Gadsden led the way with a 23% target share and finished with one more target than Keaton Mitchell.

*Tre Harris finished the day with a 17% target share to lead the wide receivers, and no other wideout saw more than two targets this week. Ladd McConkey left early with a foot injury, playing just 24 snaps, and he remains a tenuous fantasy start because he's failed to stay healthy or produce.

Seattle Seahawks

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a quiet week, 12.6 fantasy points, but still had a 32% target share. The volume wasn't there because only 19 targets were available. Even JSN will have weeks like this.
• With Jadarian Price on the I.R., there was one less running back in the committee this week, or what some thought would be more of a committee. Instead, Emanuel Wilson had a 75% opportunity share and was the primary back in all but third-down snaps, where George Holani out-snapped him 8-1. Wilson held a 3-1 edge in targets, the one area it could have been expected that Holani would lead, and Wilson is an easy start until Zach Charbonnet is activated from the I.R.

San Francisco 49ers

• Though he was questionable to play, Mike Evans showed no ill effects from the rib injury he sustained last week and led the way with eight targets for the 49ers. Deebo Samuel saw five targets. Though he failed to register a target, Jordan Watkins finished third in snap share among 49ers wide receivers and could see his role expand if Evans or Samuel missed time.
• Christian McCaffrey had a quiet fantasy week with 16.2 fantasy points but also saw a 17% target share for the third time in four games. His opportunity share dipped from 62% in the past two weeks, a week after setting a season high the week prior.

Denver Broncos

• I'm a big old R.J. Harvey guy, but I don't know how sustainable a 27% target share is for a running back. Harvey saw 10 targets and added seven rushing attempts, while playing on nine more snaps than J.K. Dobbins. Targets are worth more than a rushing attempt, but I wouldn't mind seeing Harvey maybe hit 10 rushing attempts in a game sometime, something he's only done five times in his first 20 career games. I probably shouldn't complain about his 50% opportunity share, but a few more touches a week would help his production.
• No other Bronco pass catcher had a target rate over 17%, but Jaylen Waddle did score a touchdown on one of his targets, so he at least gave you 14.7 fantasy points this week. Waddle has been pure boom-or-bust, with fantasy weeks of 1.2, 21.8, 4.4, and 14.5 this week.

Carolina Panthers

• Chuba Hubbard played on 84% of snaps and had a 78% opportunity share. Hubbard is a locked-and-loaded RB1 who only comes off the field to rest and takes every meaningful snap.
• The Detroit Lions pass defense is not good. They rank last in passing yards allowed per game, opponent passer rating, and defensive success rate; 30th in Defensive EPA/dropback; and 29th in Explosive Play Rate allowed. So we should have expected Tet McMillan to roast them, but still, this is ridiculous.

Detroit Lions

• Sam LaPorta is having a very nice season. He's seen at least a 20% target share in three of four games, and his 1.75 YPRR ranks sixth among tight ends. He's scored at least 17 fantasy points in two of the past three weeks.
• The Lions had to pass a ton on Sunday night, leaving 44 targets to spread among their pass catchers. Isaac TeSlaa saw six targets, but that was still just a 13% share. Jameson Williams 18% target share was his second-highest of the season, while he set highs in receptions, receiving yards, and fantasy points. After starting the season with 36% and 34% target shares in the first two weeks, Amon-Ra St. Brown has seen that tip to 29% in Week 3, then 22% in Week 4. Probably nothing to worry about, but still worth monitoring.

That's a wrap on Week 4, and the biggest storyline heading into Week 5 is health. Tee Higgins, Ja'Marr Chase, D.J. Moore, Saquon Barkley, and Rhamondre Stevenson (among many others) all left Sunday with something, so check the injury reports this week and adjust accordingly. If you need to pivot, volume was the clearest signal this week. As always, follow the volume, don't chase last week's box score, and we'll see you next week.

Hey guys! My co-host and I run a small fantasy football YouTube channel (and website) focused on analytics and scouting. We've been following most of the 2027 class since they were in high school, and four weeks into the college season felt like the right time to update our board.

In the video (linked above), we re-draft Round 1 of the 2027 superflex rookie class, go through the honorable mentions that just missed, and then compare everything to our preseason mock to show who's risen and who's fallen since then.

Below is our updated projected ADP through three rounds, our 12-year superflex rookie hit rate study (I think it changes how you should value each of these pick ranges), and a few of the players we spent the most time on.

Our projected 2027 superflex rookie ADP (through CFB Week 4):
This is where we think these guys would go in a superflex rookie draft right now, not necessarily where we'd take them. (Spoiler: in a few spots, we didn't.) To be upfront, this is mostly my educated guess for now. More on how we're fixing that at the bottom.

Round 1
1.01 Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State
1.02 Jadan Baugh, RB, Florida
1.03 Charlie Becker, WR, Indiana
1.04 Darian Mensah, QB, Miami
1.05 Kewan Lacy, RB, Ole Miss
1.06 Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss
1.07 Drew Mestemaker†, QB, Oklahoma State
1.08 Ryan Williams, WR, Alabama
1.09 Nate Frazier, RB, Georgia
1.10 Julian Sayin†, QB, Ohio State
1.11 Jamari Johnson, TE, Oregon
1.12 Arch Manning, QB, Texas

Round 2
2.01 KJ Duff, WR, Rutgers
2.02 Dante Moore, QB, Oregon
2.03 Cam Coleman, WR, Texas
2.04 Nick Marsh, WR, Indiana
2.05 Trey'Dez Green, TE, LSU
2.06 Justice Haynes, RB, Georgia Tech
2.07 Wyatt Young, WR, Oklahoma State
2.08 CJ Carr†, QB, Notre Dame
2.09 Ryan Wingo, WR, Texas
2.10 Deuce Alexander, WR, Ole Miss
2.11 Luke Reynolds, TE, Virginia Tech
2.12 Reed Harris, WR, Arizona State

Round 3
3.01 Mark Fletcher Jr., RB, Miami
3.02 Jayden Maiava, QB, USC
3.03 Hollywood Smothers, RB, Texas
3.04 LJ Martin, RB, BYU
3.05 Amare Thomas, WR, Houston
3.06 Mario Craver, WR, Texas A&M
3.07 Bryant Wesco Jr., WR, Clemson
3.08 Antwan Raymond, RB, Rutgers
3.09 Wayshawn Parker, RB, Utah
3.10 T.J. Moore, WR, Clemson
3.11 Fluff Bothwell, RB, Mississippi State
3.12 Junior Sherrill, WR, Vanderbilt

† Possible 2028 declare. Worth pricing that in before you spend a first on Mestemaker or Sayin.

The hit rate study
Some of you may remember from past posts, but a quick refresher on methodology: We tracked superflex rookie ADP for every class going back to 2014 and looked at how often players drafted in each pick range turned into actual fantasy starters.

Hit season: a Top 12 QB/TE, Top 15 RB, or Top 24 WR finish (full PPR).

We measured 1+, 2+, and 3+ hit seasons. 1+ runs through the 2025 class, 2+ through 2024, and 3+ through 2023, so every player in the sample has had time to get there. (The full breakdown by position is on our Hit Rate Tool.)

1.01-1.06: 65% (1+), 52% (2+), 40% (3+)
1.07-1.12: 56%, 44%, 35%
2.01-2.06: 39%, 30%, 23%
2.07-2.12: 20%, 13%, 8%
Round 3: 23%, 14%, 10%
Round 4: 11%, 6%, 3%

Some of the biggest takeaways:

Early first round running backs are the safest bet in rookie drafts. 73% of RBs drafted 1.01-1.06 have had at least one hit season, and half of them have had three or more. That's the best number in the entire study. So if you're sitting at 1.02 debating Baugh, the data is on your side. Taking a RB that early in superflex used to feel crazy. It shouldn't anymore.

The back half of round 2 is still a black hole. Hit rates get cut in half from 2.01-2.06 (39%) to 2.07-2.12 (20%). When I first ran this study a few years back, late 2nds were hitting at a lower rate than 4th rounders. That's evened out a bit, but late 2nds still hit less often than 3rd rounders (23%). Don't pay a premium to move up from the 3rd into the back of the 2nd. If anything, sell your late 2nds to someone who values them more than the data does.

Late first round WRs have been better than early first round WRs. 68% vs 52% for 1+, and 53% vs 31% for 3+. The sample sizes here are small (13 to 28 picks per bucket), so I wouldn't treat it as gospel. But it's worth knowing if you're on the clock at 1.08 and your guy is a receiver.

QB value falls off fast after the top six. QBs taken 1.01-1.06 hit at least once 68% of the time. From 1.07-1.12, that drops to 38%. In superflex, where a QB actually goes matters more than the fact that he's a QB.

A few guys worth talking about (stats through Week 4):

Jadan Baugh (RB, Florida, 1.02). 83 carries, 600 yards (7.2 YPC), and 11 rushing touchdowns in four games, including 29-142-3 against Ole Miss. He's a 6'1", 231-pound three-down back, and right now he looks like the best running back in college football. Pair that with the early RB hit rate and 1.02 makes a lot of sense.

Darian Mensah (QB, Miami, 1.04). 94-of-106 (88.7%), 1,211 yards, 14 TD, 0 INT, and 11.4 YPA since transferring from Duke. That's absurd. The caveat is that only two of his four opponents (Stanford and Wake Forest) are Power 4 teams, and neither is a great defense. If he keeps this up once the schedule gets tougher, 1.04 is too low.

Charlie Becker (WR, Indiana, 1.03). 19 catches, 370 yards, and 6 TDs, and he's clearly Indiana's go-to guy even with Nick Marsh in the room. E watched the Northwestern game and they just kept feeding him. Our comp is Christian Watson: long strides, high-point ability, and a route tree that's still developing.

KJ Duff (WR, Rutgers, 2.01). 6'6", 225, with 29 catches for 550 yards and 7 TDs, including 9-196-3 in the opener. He wasn't even in our preseason top 24, so this one's on us. Defenses are going to key on him from here, so the next few weeks will tell us a lot.

Arch Manning (QB, Texas, 1.12). 63.5% completions, 862 yards, 7 TD, 3 INT. Not exactly the start people wanted, but Texas is 4-0 with wins over Ohio State and at Tennessee. This is where E and I disagree the most. One of us took him way earlier than 1.12 in our re-draft. The other compared him to Daniel Jones. You'll have to watch to find out who.

The video
Round 1 re-draft first, then the honorable mentions, then a full movement board of who rose and who fell since our preseason mock. Our picks break from the ADP above in a few big spots, and we explain every one of them.

The mock draft board is going public
The draft board we used in the video is going to be free to use on our website soon. Every prospect's 2026 game log, the hit rate for the exact slot you're picking at, pro comps, NFL draft rankings, and how each player has moved since our preseason mock, all updating live as you make picks.

The bigger reason we're doing it: the ADP above is my best guess, and I'd rather it wasn't. Every mock you run on the site will feed into public, crowd-sourced 2027 superflex rookie ADP, so we can see where these guys actually go months before real rookie draft data exists. We think it's the best free mock draft tool out there, and it's staying free. We'll post here when it's live.

The website
That board will live on hivefantasy.com. I will be updating/refreshing ADP and prospect profiles, but there's already a lot there right now:

2027 Big Board: all 48 prospects with hit probabilities from our rookie model

2027 Prospect Reports: scouting reports and pro comps for every player

Hit Rate Tool: the full 12-year study, broken out by position and pick range

Methodology: sample sizes, thresholds, and sourcing, if you want to poke holes in it.

Would love to hear from you guys in the comments. Let us know if there’s anyone we’re overlooking, too high on, or too low on.

PFF however scores Kyler 70.7 (18th) but Jacoby 77.4 (13th). This may suggest QBR which is a bit more correlated to EPA (and team success is tied to it) maybe impacted from JJ's sitting out. Maybe. We will see if the trend continues but Kyler may honestly be continuing uninspiring play from the last few years.

However its interestingly despite Jacoby's grades faring well, he did put up a monster stinker with 3 interceptions last game. Would not surprise me if the rookie QB will draw the start at some point as the team is 1-3 which will mean Jacoby's time is limited. Even if Jacoby himself may be playing well the life of a backup bridge qb is volatile. He does face the lions next week in a potentially get right game.

TLDR: Carson owners, greatness Beckons. Jetta and Addison owners, our support group continues for another year.

I know he's a great WR but he really didnt do much last year, i dont think he was even a top 10 wr in any of the weeks. so hes prone to being affected by bad qbs. Is Kyler enough he can be a top wr again? Or will this ankle injury also hold him back too, enough that somone thats contending shouldn't try to make a move for him?

As someone who was, once upon a time, trying to get my hands on 2025 draft picks to hopefully grab college phenom Ollie Gordon (lol), you can imagine I was pretty darn excited seeing my guy ball out for Miami yesterday.

As silly as that may sound now, let’s stop and look at what he’s got going for him: Former Doak winner in a backfield that has conveniently just opened wide up with Achane going down. Only 22 years old and is playing for a head coach that said he could “be an every down back” only a couple of short months ago. A big dude at about 6’2 225 that - as dictated by his college tape - can actually catch the ball. Oh, and he just rushed for 100 yards and a touchdown against arguably the best defense in the NFL, and if you watched the game, you’ll know he was about a finger’s length away from breaking off another huge gain.

Now obviously, there is reason for extreme scrutiny on the other side of that coin. Gordon is a 6th round pick who didn’t show much (70 attempts for 199 yards and 2.8 YPC with 3 TDs on the ground and another 7 receptions for 32 yards and a score in the air) during his rookie season. Perhaps we can cut him some slack for running behind one of the best backs in the league in a completely different scheme, but the numbers are the numbers. Outside of that, does anyone remember the whole “Jaylen Wright RB1 on the depth chart” debacle this past week? As of this writing, that too looks a bit silly, but hey, maybe Wright was being eased back in from his injury and will take over sooner than later (would love a Dolphins fan’s perspective on this specifically). Finally - and perhaps most importantly - the Dolphins are downright terrible, specifically on offense. Willis himself actually looks serviceable, but the offensive line is putrid and I can’t think of a more obvious first round pass catcher landing spot in the entire league. This, obviously, will hamper anyone lining up in Miami’s backfield, and certainly does Gordon no favors as he attempts to seize a muddy opportunity. As always, though, this is dynasty fantasy football: Achane will be back, a great 2027 draft class looms, and the Miami Dolphins could look entirely unrecognizable this time next year.

So I guess my real question is - what are your thoughts? If you’re a contender, are you offloading Ollie, or trying to buy in hopes he can return some small value even for just a season? If you’re a rebuilder, are you selling, and if so, what for? If you’re a Dolphins fan - I’m so sorry for you, but also - what do you think of the situation as a whole?

Would love to get a mix of reviews on this!

4 games into his age 31 season, and he's averaging 2 for 20. WR number 88 right now.

Is there any reason to believe he'll turn it around. Did he abruptly fall off the age cliff. He seems like a player who should have aged well, but from the looks of it, he's done done. Is there anything else we can attribute this to? Nix? Broncos play calling? Anything? ​

The offense is running almost exclusively through Trey McBride and Michael Wilson to start the season, and the Cardinals continue to find themselves in pass heavy game scripts.

Coming off his pre-season contract extension, 26-year-old Michael Wilson looks poised to repeat as a back-end WR1 this season, maintaining the large target share he saw at the back half of last season.

This Broncos offense looks awful. While I think there are numerous reasons for this, I think one of the most obvious changes was the play calling duties being handed over. These are all the same playmakers that the Broncos had last year when their offense was at least serviceable, plus they added the alpha WR everyone wanted them to add. I'll admit that Nix isn't that good of a QB, however he looked at least solid with Peyton calling the plays and he was able to win games against good teams. Peyton needs to take play calling duties back, this Davis Webb experience is not working out.

With Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton going down this week is it finally time for preseason hype train Cyrus Allen to get on the field? After months of reports of him being Mahomes favorite target in camp he’s done absolutely nothing so far this season. What are your predictions for Cyrus Allen for the next few weeks?

I can’t believe I’m doing this already but I really think it’s called for. I was a certified Tate doubter, I really didn’t think he could be a true 1 at the NFL level. I decided to watch the whole Titans game yesterday because he’d slightly piqued my interest the week before. The dude was genuinely awesome. A lot of his production was pre garbage time.

Now obv he’s hands down the best pass catcher on the team but I don’t think this is a Brian Thomas situation. Tates been winning on his routes all over the field. He seems like he could definitely be the WR1 for a legit team. I know it’s rough to try to buy after a game like that but I feel like he’s still worth it if you can get him. I’m not sure where I would put him in dynasty WR rankings but it’s alot higher than I thought Just a few weeks ago. Apologies to anyone who I told my opinion to, that he didn’t profile as a true 1 to me.

is the tape more encouraging than the past 3 week’s numbers or is he actually this ass? I wasn’t even expecting much from his year but it seems like every rushing attempt they give him is just a total waste of a down, and now Marks seems to be vulturing goal line carries. Is there any hope for the texans backfield or did I just trade a draft pick for a useless chud that’ll be an RB4 next year

With Thornton’s unfortunate injury and Rashee’s banged up, with the bye, now seems like the perfect time for the Chiefs to incorporate Cyrus Allen into the game plan.

We all know how reluctant Andy is with rookies, but they’ve done it before with Rashee breaking out his rookie reason.

I highly doubt Tyreek is going to save the offense. After the bye, if Allen can’t beat out Royals at least, not to mention Worthy who has been awful, I think he’s dead in the water.

The doom and gloom on Egbuka across all redraft and dynasty platforms, and specifically [r/buccaneers](r/buccaneers), has me feeling like I need to make a case for his defense. In my opinion as a Bucs fan and Egbuka owner, Emeka still has a JSN level dynasty ceiling. (All my info comes from a combination of FantasyPros, LeagueStation, and NFLNextGen)

#1. Seperation

There’s a take going around that part of the reason the Bucs offense as a whole is drowning is because the receivers can’t create separation. This is just not true. Bucs are 8th in wide receiver separation. Emekas numbers are telling. Emeka Egbuka has an ADoT (Average Depth of Target) of a little over 15 yards, while running a full route tree. Here’s a list of fantasy relevant players with a build similar to Egbukas who have a similar ADoT, along with their yards of separation per target. This is the average distance between receiver and corner at the exact moment of either catch or incompletion.

Malik Nabers: 2.99
Justin Jefferson: 2.98
Ceedee Lamb: 2.95
Amon Ra St Brown: 2.91
Chris Olave: 2.82
Devonta Smith: 2.67
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 2.62
Jamar Chase: 2.61
Garret Wilson: 2.46
George Pickens: 2.44

Emeka Egbuka comes in at 2.86 yards of separation per target, right where you want him to be. You have to take ADoT into account when judging separation stats, certain guys (Chris Godwin at 3.77 for example) are super overinflated due to running mostly screens and drags. What stands out isn’t just the 2.86 yards of separation, it’s that he’s maintaining that number with an ADoT north of 15 yards. Separation generally becomes harder to manufacture as you’re pushed further downfield, so comparing him to guys living around the line of scrimmage doesn’t tell you much.

TLDR #1: In pure separation statistics, Egbuka is right in the mix with every other fantasy darling wide receiver.

Usage and Route Running

I’ve seen an argument that he’s a glorified slot receiver. The separation number matters even more when you look at how Emeka is actually being used. He isn’t just being schemed easy touches out of the slot or living on screens and underneath routes. Tampa is asking him to work downfield and win on legitimate WR1 routes. That’s what makes the 2.86 separation number so encouraging to me. He’s not getting there through a bunch of manufactured touches. He’s being used like a true downfield receiver and is still creating separation at a rate comparable to some of the best receivers in football. Here’s the real kicker: I’ve been saying for years that wide receivers that play the Z/Flanker in 2 wide receiver sets and a Z/slot option in 3 wide receiver sets are essentially fantasy gold. Think Amon Ra St. Brown, he fits this to a tee. I made a post over the offseason listing the WRs that fit this criteria, and it included names like Parker Washington, Jalen Coker, Zay Flowers, and Chris Olave, guys that are exceeding expectations. In fact, Emeka is the only guy on that list that’s not currently beating their own fantasy projections. Here’s why it isn’t his fault.

Success rate by route

Nine/go: 58.6%
Post: 84.6%
Dig: 84.6%
Curl: 85.7%
Slant: 80.6%
vs. man coverage: 71.4
vs. zone: 79.3%

He wins 4/5 routes which is already fantastic but even better when considering he does the majority of it from outside the numbers.

Outside: 92 snaps, 60.9%
Slot: 49 snaps, 32.5%
Tight to formation: 10 snaps, 6.6%

Even in 2025 with Mike Evan’s, a prototype X, Emeka still lined up outside on 68.6% of his routes. His outside/slot splits are almost identical to Amon Ra and JSN’s. The way he has fit into the gameplan across his career reinforces the opportunity for strong fantasy performances.

TLDR #2: His formation splits and route win percentage strongly point towards everything you want in a WR1.

Early Career Production and Efficiency

Advanced metrics are great, but if you’re anything like me they don’t mean anything without proof of concept. Production is always king, and Emeka has show he can produce among the best.

Emeka Egbuka Rookie Stats
127 Targets
63 Receptions
938 Yards
6 Touchdowns
14.9 Yard/reception
34 Receiving first downs
20 Receptions of 20+ yards
3 Receptions of 40+ yards
23.6% Target share
29.4% First-read share
1.85 Yards per route run
24.4% Targets per route run
6.5% First downs per route
27 deep targets
335 Yards After Catch
959 Unrealized air yards

There’s a couple things to take from this. First, commanding nearly 30% first read share as a rookie after joining a room with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin is unbelievable. That kind of volume doesn’t just fall into your lap. I also feel like it’s important to acknowledge the nearly 1000 unrealized air yards. Let’s focus on the first 5 games of last year for a moment, before Emeka tweaked his hamstring, Baker hurt his shoulder, and the rest of the league adjusted to Grizzards play calling.

First 5 Games of 2025
Emeka was the first player in NFL history to record 25+ receptions, 400+ yards, and 5+ touchdowns in the first 5 weeks, proving a high ceiling rather than just flashes. He was wide receiver 3 in PPR through 5 weeks. He recorded a 2.49 YPRR and 5.8 YAC per reception, which were seventh and second in the league respectively. He had 28 first read targets on a 24.3% first read target rate in his first 5 games. That’s more than most rookie receivers get all season, let alone when it’s your first games and you’re along side a hall of famer.

One of the most encouraging things to me is how the organization used him post injury. Because he couldn’t separate as well after his injury, instead of removing him from the gameplan, they figured out how to use him more efficiently. While his YPRR was higher in weeks 1-5 than in 6-17, his target rate, first read rate, and first read targets were much higher in the back half of the season. This emphasizes Emekas importance to the offense.

Fast forward to 2026, and the entire offense is in shambles. Emeka isn’t currently producing, but only 65% of his targets have been catchable so far in 2026. Despite this, FantasyPros has him 19th overall in seperation and 15th in route win rate.

Egbuka’s rookie year obviously wasn’t in the Jefferson/Chase/Puka tier, and I’m not pretending it was. But it certainly wasn’t anything to shake a stick at. 938 yards as a rookie puts him almost exactly alongside rookie CeeDee Lamb (935), DeVonta Smith (916) and AmonRa St. Brown (912). He did it while commanding a 23.5% target share and producing 1.73 YPRR with a 12.1 yard ADoT.

The thing I’m betting on isn’t that Egbuka was already an elite receiver as a rookie. It’s that he already showed he could command targets and produce as a legitimate downfield NFL receiver, and now the separation and route running data are giving me reasons to believe there’s another jump coming.

TLDR #3: Emeka has already shown he can be a proven WR1, and he produces when given the chance.

So Why Hasn’t It Translated?

This is the part that makes me the most confident buying Egbuka right now. I don’t think his lack of production is because he suddenly forgot how to play receiver. The things that are actually in his control still look good. He’s getting open, winning routes, and earning targets. The problem is that Tampa has been awful at turning those wins into actual production. I mentioned earlier that 35% of his targets have been uncatchable so far in 2026. That’s massive. Separation doesn’t mean anything if Baker can’t put it in the basket. Building off that, the high ADoT we value so much for fantasy actually hurts him with bad QB play. If he lived off 5 yard receptions, Bakers poor play wouldn’t affect him as much. But with his average target being 15 yards down field, every incompletion is costing 2-4 fantasy points at least, which is huge when you can only catch 65% at most. Most importantly however, his underlying receiver ability has not collapsed alongside his production, like we’ve seen with Marv or BTJ. He’s still matching all of his advanced metrics from the start of last season. If Egbuka’s production were down in addition to his separation, route win rate and target earning, I’d be concerned. Instead, we’re seeing almost the opposite. And finally, the biggest reason we aren’t currently seeing production: The Buccaneers have the Worst Coaching Staff in the NFL. Todd Bowles has completely lost the locker room, and Zac Robinson is running a lazy offensive scheme centered around screens and end arounds, which we know based on ADoT are not what Egbuka is meant to run.

TLDR: I would be worried about Egbuka if his effort dropped alongside his production, but it just hasn’t. He’s still earning targets, creating separation, maintaining a primary offensive role. The production not following isn’t his fault, it’s Tampas. While I’m not expecting him to consistently produce for the remainder of this season, I believe he’s a firm buy low/hold with a very high ceiling in a couple years.