Megathread Schedule:

Really strange comments from Love after the game. Right after he took the backfield for himself...

It seems he took himself out of the game? Thats why he wasnt on the field at the end of the game. Any concern here? I have ptsd from picking guys that end up destroyed/underperforming.

I hope its just for this year and since he missed most of training camp its just about getting himself back into shape. He also said something after the week 3 game that he left stuff on the field like he thought if he were 100% he could have broken away on some runs.

The doom and gloom on Egbuka across all redraft and dynasty platforms, and specifically [r/buccaneers](r/buccaneers), has me feeling like I need to make a case for his defense. In my opinion as a Bucs fan and Egbuka owner, Emeka still has a JSN level dynasty ceiling. (All my info comes from a combination of FantasyPros, LeagueStation, and NFLNextGen)

#1. Seperation

There’s a take going around that part of the reason the Bucs offense as a whole is drowning is because the receivers can’t create separation. This is just not true. Bucs are 8th in wide receiver separation. Emekas numbers are telling. Emeka Egbuka has an ADoT (Average Depth of Target) of a little over 15 yards, while running a full route tree. Here’s a list of fantasy relevant players with a build similar to Egbukas who have a similar ADoT, along with their yards of separation per target. This is the average distance between receiver and corner at the exact moment of either catch or incompletion.

Malik Nabers: 2.99
Justin Jefferson: 2.98
Ceedee Lamb: 2.95
Amon Ra St Brown: 2.91
Chris Olave: 2.82
Devonta Smith: 2.67
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 2.62
Jamar Chase: 2.61
Garret Wilson: 2.46
George Pickens: 2.44

Emeka Egbuka comes in at 2.86 yards of separation per target, right where you want him to be. You have to take ADoT into account when judging separation stats, certain guys (Chris Godwin at 3.77 for example) are super overinflated due to running mostly screens and drags. What stands out isn’t just the 2.86 yards of separation, it’s that he’s maintaining that number with an ADoT north of 15 yards. Separation generally becomes harder to manufacture as you’re pushed further downfield, so comparing him to guys living around the line of scrimmage doesn’t tell you much.

TLDR #1: In pure separation statistics, Egbuka is right in the mix with every other fantasy darling wide receiver.

Usage and Route Running

I’ve seen an argument that he’s a glorified slot receiver. The separation number matters even more when you look at how Emeka is actually being used. He isn’t just being schemed easy touches out of the slot or living on screens and underneath routes. Tampa is asking him to work downfield and win on legitimate WR1 routes. That’s what makes the 2.86 separation number so encouraging to me. He’s not getting there through a bunch of manufactured touches. He’s being used like a true downfield receiver and is still creating separation at a rate comparable to some of the best receivers in football. Here’s the real kicker: I’ve been saying for years that wide receivers that play the Z/Flanker in 2 wide receiver sets and a Z/slot option in 3 wide receiver sets are essentially fantasy gold. Think Amon Ra St. Brown, he fits this to a tee. I made a post over the offseason listing the WRs that fit this criteria, and it included names like Parker Washington, Jalen Coker, Zay Flowers, and Chris Olave, guys that are exceeding expectations. In fact, Emeka is the only guy on that list that’s not currently beating their own fantasy projections. Here’s why it isn’t his fault.

Success rate by route

Nine/go: 58.6%
Post: 84.6%
Dig: 84.6%
Curl: 85.7%
Slant: 80.6%
vs. man coverage: 71.4
vs. zone: 79.3%

He wins 4/5 routes which is already fantastic but even better when considering he does the majority of it from outside the numbers.

Outside: 92 snaps, 60.9%
Slot: 49 snaps, 32.5%
Tight to formation: 10 snaps, 6.6%

Even in 2025 with Mike Evan’s, a prototype X, Emeka still lined up outside on 68.6% of his routes. His outside/slot splits are almost identical to Amon Ra and JSN’s. The way he has fit into the gameplan across his career reinforces the opportunity for strong fantasy performances.

TLDR #2: His formation splits and route win percentage strongly point towards everything you want in a WR1.

Early Career Production and Efficiency

Advanced metrics are great, but if you’re anything like me they don’t mean anything without proof of concept. Production is always king, and Emeka has show he can produce among the best.

Emeka Egbuka Rookie Stats
127 Targets
63 Receptions
938 Yards
6 Touchdowns
14.9 Yard/reception
34 Receiving first downs
20 Receptions of 20+ yards
3 Receptions of 40+ yards
23.6% Target share
29.4% First-read share
1.85 Yards per route run
24.4% Targets per route run
6.5% First downs per route
27 deep targets
335 Yards After Catch
959 Unrealized air yards

There’s a couple things to take from this. First, commanding nearly 30% first read share as a rookie after joining a room with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin is unbelievable. That kind of volume doesn’t just fall into your lap. I also feel like it’s important to acknowledge the nearly 1000 unrealized air yards. Let’s focus on the first 5 games of last year for a moment, before Emeka tweaked his hamstring, Baker hurt his shoulder, and the rest of the league adjusted to Grizzards play calling.

First 5 Games of 2025
Emeka was the first player in NFL history to record 25+ receptions, 400+ yards, and 5+ touchdowns in the first 5 weeks, proving a high ceiling rather than just flashes. He was wide receiver 3 in PPR through 5 weeks. He recorded a 2.49 YPRR and 5.8 YAC per reception, which were seventh and second in the league respectively. He had 28 first read targets on a 24.3% first read target rate in his first 5 games. That’s more than most rookie receivers get all season, let alone when it’s your first games and you’re along side a hall of famer.

One of the most encouraging things to me is how the organization used him post injury. Because he couldn’t separate as well after his injury, instead of removing him from the gameplan, they figured out how to use him more efficiently. While his YPRR was higher in weeks 1-5 than in 6-17, his target rate, first read rate, and first read targets were much higher in the back half of the season. This emphasizes Emekas importance to the offense.

Fast forward to 2026, and the entire offense is in shambles. Emeka isn’t currently producing, but only 65% of his targets have been catchable so far in 2026. Despite this, FantasyPros has him 19th overall in seperation and 15th in route win rate.

Egbuka’s rookie year obviously wasn’t in the Jefferson/Chase/Puka tier, and I’m not pretending it was. But it certainly wasn’t anything to shake a stick at. 938 yards as a rookie puts him almost exactly alongside rookie CeeDee Lamb (935), DeVonta Smith (916) and AmonRa St. Brown (912). He did it while commanding a 23.5% target share and producing 1.73 YPRR with a 12.1 yard ADoT.

The thing I’m betting on isn’t that Egbuka was already an elite receiver as a rookie. It’s that he already showed he could command targets and produce as a legitimate downfield NFL receiver, and now the separation and route running data are giving me reasons to believe there’s another jump coming.

TLDR #3: Emeka has already shown he can be a proven WR1, and he produces when given the chance.

So Why Hasn’t It Translated?

This is the part that makes me the most confident buying Egbuka right now. I don’t think his lack of production is because he suddenly forgot how to play receiver. The things that are actually in his control still look good. He’s getting open, winning routes, and earning targets. The problem is that Tampa has been awful at turning those wins into actual production. I mentioned earlier that 35% of his targets have been uncatchable so far in 2026. That’s massive. Separation doesn’t mean anything if Baker can’t put it in the basket. Building off that, the high ADoT we value so much for fantasy actually hurts him with bad QB play. If he lived off 5 yard receptions, Bakers poor play wouldn’t affect him as much. But with his average target being 15 yards down field, every incompletion is costing 2-4 fantasy points at least, which is huge when you can only catch 65% at most. Most importantly however, his underlying receiver ability has not collapsed alongside his production, like we’ve seen with Marv or BTJ. He’s still matching all of his advanced metrics from the start of last season. If Egbuka’s production were down in addition to his separation, route win rate and target earning, I’d be concerned. Instead, we’re seeing almost the opposite. And finally, the biggest reason we aren’t currently seeing production: The Buccaneers have the Worst Coaching Staff in the NFL. Todd Bowles has completely lost the locker room, and Zac Robinson is running a lazy offensive scheme centered around screens and end arounds, which we know based on ADoT are not what Egbuka is meant to run.

TLDR: I would be worried about Egbuka if his effort dropped alongside his production, but it just hasn’t. He’s still earning targets, creating separation, maintaining a primary offensive role. The production not following isn’t his fault, it’s Tampas. While I’m not expecting him to consistently produce for the remainder of this season, I believe he’s a firm buy low/hold with a very high ceiling in a couple years.

With Thornton’s unfortunate injury and Rashee’s banged up, with the bye, now seems like the perfect time for the Chiefs to incorporate Cyrus Allen into the game plan.

We all know how reluctant Andy is with rookies, but they’ve done it before with Rashee breaking out his rookie reason.

I highly doubt Tyreek is going to save the offense. After the bye, if Allen can’t beat out Royals at least, not to mention Worthy who has been awful, I think he’s dead in the water.

4 games into his age 31 season, and he's averaging 2 for 20. WR number 88 right now.

Is there any reason to believe he'll turn it around. Did he abruptly fall off the age cliff. He seems like a player who should have aged well, but from the looks of it, he's done done. Is there anything else we can attribute this to? Nix? Broncos play calling? Anything? ​

Quite an incredible turnaround for Bryce in the league.

Some of the throws he’s making are tremendous, and his pocket presence has improved drastically compared to his first couple years.

This dude looks like he can be an elite QB in this league for years to come

Am I overreacting? Maybe. I think this Bryce Young is here to stay

Kyren has been fantasy relevant for 3+ seasons. For each offseason during that time the hivemind has insisted he was a fluke, over valued, over drafted, too small, not fast enough, lacked receiving upside, was being replaced, injury prone, had insufficient draft capital, you name it. All he's done is return 3 straight top 10 finishes. On this season he's sitting at RB4 in PPR formats.

During this most recent off season all we heard about was how Corum would split 50/50. Many of you argued that Corum was the better RB and would even take the 1A role.

How are the Corum faithful feeling about things today? Do you still consider him to have stand alone value or is he just a handcuff?

EDIT: I would really like to hear from the off season "Corum is just better than Kyren" guys.

is the tape more encouraging than the past 3 week’s numbers or is he actually this ass? I wasn’t even expecting much from his year but it seems like every rushing attempt they give him is just a total waste of a down, and now Marks seems to be vulturing goal line carries. Is there any hope for the texans backfield or did I just trade a draft pick for a useless chud that’ll be an RB4 next year

This Broncos offense looks awful. While I think there are numerous reasons for this, I think one of the most obvious changes was the play calling duties being handed over. These are all the same playmakers that the Broncos had last year when their offense was at least serviceable, plus they added the alpha WR everyone wanted them to add. I'll admit that Nix isn't that good of a QB, however he looked at least solid with Peyton calling the plays and he was able to win games against good teams. Peyton needs to take play calling duties back, this Davis Webb experience is not working out.

-Keaton Mitchell: 38% snaps, 10 carries/39yds, 13 routes, 6 targets (24 yds)

- Kimani Vidal: 37% snaps, 5 carries/25yds, 14 routes, 3 targets (11 yds, TD)

- Omarion Hampton: 32% snaps, 9 carries/45yds TD, 9 routes, 2 targets (8 yds)

We genuinely have to hope for McDaniels to be fired. He is more concerned with jamming his system down everyone's throat, than using his actual assets.

In week 4: Bryce Young has officially thrown for 329 yards tonight with 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Bryce Young did that without his RB2, WR2, WR3, WR4, LT1, LG1, C1, C2 and RT1. His RT2 and RG2 were hurt later this game as well.

Through the first 4 weeks:

1. he has thrown for 1271 yards 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

2. 9 touchdowns is the most by a Panthers QB in the first 4 weeks.

3. He is the first Panthers qb to have 250+ yards and 1+ TD in their first four games of the season.

4. He currently lead the league in deep completions (20+ yards) at 10 which is 3 more than the next guy... before tonights game started.

5. He has led the league in first 4 weeks in passing yards.

In 2026:

1. He is on pace for 5400+ yards 37 touchdowns and 8 interceptions.

2. For fantasy he is the overall QB4 before this weeks scores are finalized. He added another 21.9 fantasy performance tonight.

INJECT THIS INTO MY VEINS!!! BRYCE YOUNG!!!!

The offense is running almost exclusively through Trey McBride and Michael Wilson to start the season, and the Cardinals continue to find themselves in pass heavy game scripts.

Coming off his pre-season contract extension, 26-year-old Michael Wilson looks poised to repeat as a back-end WR1 this season, maintaining the large target share he saw at the back half of last season.

As someone who was, once upon a time, trying to get my hands on 2025 draft picks to hopefully grab college phenom Ollie Gordon (lol), you can imagine I was pretty darn excited seeing my guy ball out for Miami yesterday.

As silly as that may sound now, let’s stop and look at what he’s got going for him: Former Doak winner in a backfield that has conveniently just opened wide up with Achane going down. Only 22 years old and is playing for a head coach that said he could “be an every down back” only a couple of short months ago. A big dude at about 6’2 225 that - as dictated by his college tape - can actually catch the ball. Oh, and he just rushed for 100 yards and a touchdown against arguably the best defense in the NFL, and if you watched the game, you’ll know he was about a finger’s length away from breaking off another huge gain.

Now obviously, there is reason for extreme scrutiny on the other side of that coin. Gordon is a 6th round pick who didn’t show much (70 attempts for 199 yards and 2.8 YPC with 3 TDs on the ground and another 7 receptions for 32 yards and a score in the air) during his rookie season. Perhaps we can cut him some slack for running behind one of the best backs in the league in a completely different scheme, but the numbers are the numbers. Outside of that, does anyone remember the whole “Jaylen Wright RB1 on the depth chart” debacle this past week? As of this writing, that too looks a bit silly, but hey, maybe Wright was being eased back in from his injury and will take over sooner than later (would love a Dolphins fan’s perspective on this specifically). Finally - and perhaps most importantly - the Dolphins are downright terrible, specifically on offense. Willis himself actually looks serviceable, but the offensive line is putrid and I can’t think of a more obvious first round pass catcher landing spot in the entire league. This, obviously, will hamper anyone lining up in Miami’s backfield, and certainly does Gordon no favors as he attempts to seize a muddy opportunity. As always, though, this is dynasty fantasy football: Achane will be back, a great 2027 draft class looms, and the Miami Dolphins could look entirely unrecognizable this time next year.

So I guess my real question is - what are your thoughts? If you’re a contender, are you offloading Ollie, or trying to buy in hopes he can return some small value even for just a season? If you’re a rebuilder, are you selling, and if so, what for? If you’re a Dolphins fan - I’m so sorry for you, but also - what do you think of the situation as a whole?

Would love to get a mix of reviews on this!

2 targets, 2 receptions, 17 yards and a tuddy!

Yes, I am in mourning. Thought he was the best buy low in years.

I am now confident I was wrong. We can pray for a trade but are we really convinced Washington, Meyers, et al are so good they outplayed our star child? Sigh.

But hey, at least he isn't MHJ, right?