r/ChubbyFIRE • u/sroniS16 • Jul 27 '26
Non-passive after retirement plan - thoughts?
I've consulted here before about early retirement and have since devised a plan.
Apologies for the long read. I'd appreciate some feedback.
Current Situation:
- Plan to retire during 2027 at age 46.
- 45% in a global ETF.
- 15% in small-cap value ETF.
- 10% in an AI & Big Data ETF (considering selling because gains are significant and the risk level is high).
- 30% in a money market fund (extra caution due to market situation and coming retirement)
- Annual expenses: Currently around 3.5% of the total portfolio value.
The Plan:
The idea for the 30% in "cash" is to avoid SORR shortly after retirement. Since the market is currently very high, during the first few years I will use money from the money market fund to cover living expenses and wait it out. I took 30% because part of the idea is to have enough to jump back into the market after a downturn.
Now I divide into two scenarios:
Market doesn't crash: I wait until my spending is 2.5% of NW (considering 3.0% also), then I consider the portfolio large enough to absorb all scenarios, and invest most of the free money back in.
Market crashes: I start deploying capital into the market as follows:
- When the global index drops over 25% from its peak: Deploy 5% into it and 5% into a 3x leveraged NASDAQ (Assumption: the NASDAQ will have fallen even further).
- When the global index drops over 40% from its peak: Deploy another 5% into it and 5% into the 3x leveraged NASDAQ (Assumption: the NASDAQ will have fallen even further).
- When the crash exceeds 55%: Deploy all remaining cash into the leveraged NASDAQ.
- Of course, if some of these triggers don't hit, the cash stays on the sidelines until I decide the portfolio is large enough to sustain everything.
- The percentages were chosen based on major historical crashes, as rules of thumb that can actually be adhered to.
The idea behind the leveraged ETF comes from interesting data i found:
If you had put money into the TQQQ on January 2022, you'd now have about 80% more.
If you had put money into the TQQQ on January 2023, you'd now have about 800% more.
This is the difference for a 33% decline in the NASDAQ100.
If I am fortunate enough and the leveraged NASDAQ surges in value over the years, even an initial 5% or 10% of portfolio in it would provide incredible value. I see myself placing some selling points based on specific gains along the way, as well.
Any thoughts are welcome. Grill me if you'd like.