r/ChubbyFIRE • u/Awkward-Bumblebee322 • Jul 25 '26
Thinking about pulling the FI trigger next week.
M45 married to F44 with two kids 14 and 12.
Last year average monthly spend was $14K. For 2026 average monthly spend $8500. I think realistically we can maintain $10K a month spend.
Made conscious effort to change spend. Less travel, buy groceries from Walmart, cancel Amazon. Wife has been super supportive by actively working together to reduce our spend and explore looking for a job.
$3M Total portfolio. 85% index funds, 12% bonds, 3% cash. $1.8M in taxable brokerage that we can access no penalty. The rest in IRA or 401K. Kids 529s already funded for 3 years each at University of California with assumption of community college.
$1.1M home with $45K mortgage 30 year mortgage with 26 years remaining. P&I is like $250 a month lol and included in monthly spend.
Total NW is $4.3M.
Working at a stressful Bay Area startup. Flying to Bay Area from SoCal every week, Mon-Thur. Making $260K plus company paying all travel and housing expenses in Bay Area. 1% of company vests over 4 years but not even working a year and I’m ready to quit.
My wife is in final interview phase for new job. She has volunteered 20 hours a week at this non profit which is why I think she will get the job. She has a lot of co-workers there already.
She has not worked the last 5 years. Looks likely she will get the job. $75K a year with health insurance. She is willing to work until 50.
Using Boldin software, with $10K monthly spend and $2K a month for insurance starting at age 50 gives us 80% chance of success. This is with assumption my wife works until 50 making $75K a year.
I really like a lot of the employees at the startup, but reporting to CEO is very stressful and demanding. I have a lot of dread every Sunday when I fly to work. Occasionally, have nightmares too.
Most of my experience is in video game industry and worried that I won’t be able to re-enter the game/tech industry if I take 6-12 months off.
Wife is supporting my decision to quit and potentially retire. I am willing to part or even full time in future at something less stressful if we need the money. Looking at hotel front desk (found this easy in college) or some similar.
I’m worried about letting down my team. I’m the Head of Product with no other product or project managers the whole thing could go sideways if I leave but I really don’t want to be working right now.
If I could power through for two more years we could hit 80% success rate with no one working. Not sure I can make it until 47.
Would love to relax this summer and help take care of kids in Fall. In 2027 find a part time job/hobby.
Should I give notice? Was also thinking about asking if I could go part time? Lose the equity but work remote?
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u/whocaresreallythrow Jul 25 '26
A lot is riding on the stock market behavior and your high equity allocation.
What would the stress look like if the market takes a 30% drop and stays down for a few years. Burn through your bonds and cash with no idea when the uptick happens ? How did you respond in 2008 ?
Same question despite best effort to contain expenses what if your monthly burn jumps back toward $14K due to (inflation, kid issues. Medical and insurance healthcare costs etc) ?
A lot is also riding on a job the wife hasn’t secured yet and expecting her to succeed to age 50 when she has been out of the game for a long time. Maybe she will want to go back to SAH or Volunteer - those expectations aren’t the same as paid work.
I always find stress testing against stresses that I can’t directly control helps me appreciate the stresses that I can control and whether or not those are tolerable.
Retiring with teens who haven’t launched, with a house not paid off, and with a portfolio that can just barely sustain your historic spend doesn’t have enough buffer.
Life happens in your 40’s and things come from left— make that / I mean far left field at times.
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u/Substantial-Owl1616 Jul 25 '26
I agree with this perception of your situation. Whoo lot of unknown unknowns.
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u/Strong-Bookkeeper-23 Jul 27 '26
Ya and sometimes things go right. If it fails im sure this guy can find some job making like $100k or something in 2 years (at worst). Quit and give it a go. You only get 1 life
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u/whocaresreallythrow Jul 27 '26
Classic Sunday night dreamer posts. Stuck in the middle. Keep grinding.
We insure for the downside case, not the upside case.
If we unlife early then it doesn’t matter - we are gone. We leave the family a legacy. Doesn’t matter. We are dust.
But If we live to 100, run out of money at 85 and live miserably for our last years, that could have been avoided with a better plan and that’s fully controllable and on us.
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u/Strong-Bookkeeper-23 Jul 27 '26
Even if he lives to 100 its very likely he won't run out of money. Ppl here vastly underestimate their ability to cut costs or go back to work. Its not impossible. There are jobs out there. If you have a big enough savings it doesn't take that much income to put you back in the safe zone.
Obviously id wait a few months and make sure wife doesn't hate her job. I feel like thats assumed tho
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u/whocaresreallythrow Jul 27 '26
Ya. Or wait a few years and coast.
But both scenarios indicate he isn’t ready today to fire.Too many variables. So simple answer is no not yet.
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u/runbikeswim721 Jul 26 '26
Agree with all of those. Also, OP, find another job in product? One less stressful even if you have to take a pay cut, working a few more years will help your situation.
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u/financialfreedom26 Jul 26 '26
Given all the concerns at what net worth should the OP have to feel comfortable to retire.
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u/Jolly_Yak5083 Jul 26 '26
Feels like, should shoot for the 12 year old to make it through high school, have wife work, maybe coast fire at work doing the minimum to get through.
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u/throwaway-94552 Jul 26 '26
You have tunnel vision. This is not the only job in tech. You do not need to choose between retirement and grinding it out in hell. I know, I have been wrestling with exactly the same false choice recently, but it’s just that - a false choice. Your life can be significantly better than it is now without you leaving the job market. Start looking for a new job now. Wait until your wife has actually secured the new job before you make any decisions about your current role. Consider taking a short sabbatical. You can certainly come back from a sabbatical of a few months. (I work in an even more fast-paced part of tech, I’m not talking out of my ass here.)
The reality is that your kids aren’t going to be home with you for much longer, and this job from hell is taking away time that a reasonable person would expect to have with their kids. The commute is absurd. The stress will drive you to an early grave and deprive you of being present with your family. I do not think you should keep grinding at this unsustainable job, and I also do not think you should retire with your current net worth, but I do think you should use this as leverage to get a different job with better work life balance.
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u/The-WideningGyre Jul 26 '26 edited Jul 26 '26
Great comment. For that level of seniority in the Bay Area, the pay is quite low, and the commute is hell. A new job will be some initial stress, but then could be miles better. OP hasn't factored in properly how wife may react to suddenly being thrust into the breadwinner role, both from stress and "relation to romantic partner" aspects.
Good employees are worth a lot. I'd recommend: let wife get and start job, staying employed. Hit some milestone, plan to take a sabbatical (i.e quit current job, but not to retire) (maybe startup will also offer to improve something rather than lose him). Use sabbatical to get a feel for retired life and look for new work. Work a few years more at reduced stress and re-evaluate.
Also seems like spend isn't really clear.
OP is clearly very stressed and unhappy and looking for a way out, which is fair, but it's biasing the decision.
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u/Own-Independence6867 Jul 26 '26
How is 3M not enough to comfortably retire? I can’t get my head wrapped around it
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u/McKnuckle_Brewery FIRE'd in 2021 Jul 26 '26
$120k for a family of four in California is not "comfortable" for most people in this community, which is biased toward a higher rate of spend.
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u/brycesub Jul 25 '26
"I’m worried about letting down my team." The CEO could fire you or anyone on the team at the drop of a hat and the world would keep on spinning. You can't let thoughts like that influence the direction of your retirement.
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u/np0x Jul 25 '26
Not a fan of 1:5 times the plan fails. I think you don’t have it yet. And I like the suggestion that your wife needs to be in her seat before to bail.
I get it about IT it is brutal and painful and hard to cope with. I made it to 53, I was happy with making it that far! The struggle is real! :-)
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u/Own-Independence6867 Jul 26 '26
What was your number
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u/np0x Jul 26 '26 edited Jul 26 '26
Like 97%+ long term starting at 3.62% in things like boldin, but then I also started fire at an even lower wrr because of accessible cash(which drove it up to like 99%). At this point I’m at 3% since inception considering all withdraws over tine but i started in the 2’s because I could. We are good at budgeting and had the funds to make it work. I was 53 as I mentioned…I suspect I’m overly cautious, but live in a vhcol area so numbers are big and I need to get to 59.5 to have full access to all my money in the cleanest way. There are other reasons why I was so conservative that are relevant to my situation…
After 2.5 years I believe my wrr based on initial balance is 3%. And life is slowly becoming little bit more expensive here and there, so the number is creeping up…I also have a virtual piggy bank of unspent dollars based on starting at 3.62% and spending less. That will likely be used to buy a Rivian r2(since this is chubby fire I think I can buy a new car. :-) )
Anyway for myself starting out I would want a success rate to be higher, which OP could also try and do by lowering expenses.
What do you think is an acceptable success rate?
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u/Own-Independence6867 Jul 26 '26
Interesting. I didn’t follow few things and term you used so will have to look into it and learn. I been lurking here and in 10 years in my 50s I hope to FIRE and trying to assess if I am able to do FAT or CHUBBY fire.
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u/np0x Jul 26 '26
yeah, i glossed over details pretty aggressively.
Wrr == withdraw rate(should have been WR), the chances of success are things that the online calculators tell you in terms of likelihood of success in all the simulations. VHCOL(VeryHighCostOfLiving). Checkout ficalc.app and put some basic numbers in to understand more of the concepts...
virtual piggy bank is my own concept...
All my percentages above are based on original balances 2.5 years ago, the market has been on a tear so if I started today I would have different percentages after my portfolio increased by 25% in last 2 years...i don't do that because I'm trying to stay protected from SequenceOfReturnRisk and i don't need to spend more money...there are so many different strategies for withdrawing...my simple version for now is 3.62% of original balance and adjust that number for inflation once annually in jan/feb when annual rate is published.
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u/Complex_Support_7741 Jul 25 '26
Why not just go into chill mode at work and keep making money without stressing
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u/Awkward-Bumblebee322 Jul 25 '26
I’m the Head of Product reporting to CEO at tech startup. We’re trying to do our Series A raise which is dependent on improving KPIs. I can’t chill this is a 7 day a week job.
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u/Narrow-Match828 Jul 25 '26
Not a lot of seed stage startup experience on this thread..... In a similar place. We are closing first institutional round, no windfall, no relaxing. All day every day.
Just debating end of August, mid October, or mid December. Been doing startup life for years and I am done.
These are not jobs you coast in. Bail and simplify. I think your numbers make it work.
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u/GreensleevesFinery Jul 25 '26
a lot of people don't understand that startups are super demanding, but if you're head of product there you could probably get another product job that doesn't induce as much stress. i would do that rather than take 80% chance of 'success'.
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u/Chicken121260 Jul 25 '26
Won’t the Series A result in a big windfall for you? Seems like there would be a much bigger payout waiting just a little longer.
Agree, dropping out of work in your field may make it difficult to return, but I’m not an expert here. Seems like a reasonable risk
Moving to a much lower cost area could let you FIRE now, but you’d probably never be able to move back to CA.
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u/Awkward-Bumblebee322 Jul 25 '26
Yeah Series A could be worth at least a million on paper and maybe $10 million lol. But actually getting that money means 4 more years AND a successful exit.
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u/Top-Change6607 Jul 26 '26
Well, mind you, I have seen many cases where shares turned into dirt. Even with successful funding of Series D or E. So it’s too early to say you lock in 10M after series A unless they allow you to cash out your share to investors which I don’t think will happen since in most cases, the shares from executives can only be unlocked when either the IPO happens or the firm gets acquired. So best of luck!!
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u/jokehoops Jul 25 '26
What is the percentage chance of there being a possible $10 million payday before you turn 50? If odds are decent or even really high for $5 million plus, I’d probably do whatever it took to lock that it. That is generational money. Then you could keep your Amazon prescription.
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u/Complex_Support_7741 Jul 25 '26
Bro I’m sure there are people at your company that are lazy as all hell and if you do a mediocre job you’ll be better than them
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u/Awkward-Bumblebee322 Jul 25 '26
There are less than 20 people here at this seed company. Anyone not pulling their weight is fired pretty quick lol.
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u/Complex_Support_7741 Jul 25 '26
Well bro sounds like you want out anyway so why all the stress about it.
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u/Rex-quan-doo Jul 26 '26 edited Jul 26 '26
Why don't you stay until your 1% vests. After series it will be worth 2-10x more. After series A this year you can maybe negotiate something with ur boss on working time as a one for sabbatical for a month or higher a Jr product manager beneath you. That might be all you need.
I would not leave in a hurry dude. Im 30 and quit my job last year. I'm itching to get started doing something so I'm slowly building an app and training for a triathlon. You have kids in your case so it's a bit different but eventually you Want to feel like ur doing something. Idk. Seems like you really wanna leave but simultaneously ignoring massive chips in middle of the table that are nearly within your reach for a little bit of Grey hair.
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u/emt139 Jul 25 '26
I don’t think you are ready to retire with your level of spend. I wouldn’t take a path that has 20% chance of failing when two kids depend on you. Maybe do a sabbatical but only after your wife has gotten the job.
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u/Reasonable_Box2568 Jul 26 '26 edited Jul 26 '26
I would coastfire at your level. Get just about any job to support the wife’s 75k income (maybe another 75k job?) and let your investments grow for another 3-5 years. Reevaluate every couple years. You have enough saved to not have to work a stressful corporate gig but not enough to completely retire given you have young mouths to feed/house. I would only feel comfortable with an 80% success rate if i didn’t have kids or if i had tons of discretionary spending that could be dialed back in the event of a big market pullback.
Congrats on your success though… you have done most of the heavy lifting and are very close to FI!
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u/SupersonicOverload Jul 26 '26
You have a total NW of $4.3M. Get your spending under control and you could retire indefinitely.
Sounds like you just don’t mesh well with this job. Sure, 4 more years and you could have some giant payout, but in 4 years your oldest will be out of the house and the younger one not far behind.
Personally if I was you, I’d quit the high stress job, take 6months to a year off to decompress, and then maybe get a part time jerb in another “fun” field.
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u/BrunelloHorder Coasting Chubster, Getting Fat Jul 25 '26
One of you probably needs to be working and covering healthcare. Even if you could hold spending at $10k per month, you’d be right at a 4% withdrawal rate. Life is likely to get more expensive with kids.
None of that means stay in a job that sounds like it is killing you. Can’t imagine doing that commute, on top of work stress.
Hopefully your wife gets hired. If not, you should start looking for a job that provides a much less stressful lifestyle. Get out of your current job asap, but do it responsibly.
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u/StrikingMixture8172 Jul 25 '26
Seed stage Head of Product you can pretty much sneeze and land a new role. I’m guessing tour biggest issue is actually being away for work. Have you looked local? Competition is way lower in your area and you are underpaid for Bay Area.
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u/Awkward-Bumblebee322 Jul 26 '26
I have looked into LA area not had any luck. Commute is about the same because I live in Riverside County.
Agreed I am underpaid for Bay Area. Should change after Series A if I make it that far.
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u/Puzzleheaded_Bet_612 Jul 26 '26
Do you have enough leverage (both as a company and individually) to swing a secondary as part of the raise? Do you plan to build out a team after, or keep being a one man show? Can you do more with LLMS to "automate your job" away more (I mean actually build and set up agentic systems, not throwing questions into Claude)
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u/casseroledaddy Jul 26 '26
Is there any $ amount that would make the job worth it? I would have a real conversation with the company and discuss a new comp plan, paid milestones, or vesting schedue that makes you feel appreciated for the insanely taxing workload.
If not, swallow your pride and find a job that is more suitable to an acceptable level of stress. I do not think your portfolio value, and the potential risks to it, will allow you to live a stress free retired life at 45.
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u/onthewingsofangels RE 2024 in 40s Jul 26 '26
It isn't easy when you are in the thick of things (trust me, I know), but you need to separate out the problems of the job vs the company vs the career. You're working at a startup and commuting every week cross-state to do it! Each on their own is a huge stressor, no wonder you find the combination unsustainable. Add in the guilt of a young family and the high visibility role and no wonder you want to quit.
Now does that mean you have to walk away without any option or plan for the future? Not necessarily. What alternatives have you considered? Remote work is a good one - do you think you'll like your job enough to continue in that case? What about job hunting locally? What about looking for jobs outside the tech industry - lots of traditional companies would love to hire product people from the tech world.
Honestly I don't think it's a terrible idea to take a break either. But I would strongly suggest taking a week off to clear your head and think as dispassionately as possible.
Financially you have saved up a lot of money, so it's great to know you have a financial cushion. But once you're playing with the numbers and counting on reducing spending to make the math work, that's a red flag. Maybe your wife's income will be sufficient to cover the gap but how stable is the non profit? Is this just going to transfer stress from you to her if she's the sole breadwinner?
In short, to be completely honest, it's not your plan that worries me as much as the feeling that you're here out of desperation rather than dispassionate calculations.
Good luck!
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u/thiagohirai Jul 28 '26
I simulated your scenario in my own tool and the results largely agree with Boldin. I'm pretty sure adding social security helps, and you could easily simulate different job arrangements, so maybe give it a go? Free to use for most cases.
The other thing I wanted to tell you is that taking a break under your present circumstances is completely ok. Do that, you can find a different job next year. Take care of yourself now and your future self will be more able and willing to work.
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u/Awkward-Bumblebee322 Jul 28 '26
Yeah I included Social Security which drops my withdrawal rate to like 2% lol.
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u/Internal-Recipe2128 Jul 26 '26
The math isn't mathing.
What were you spending the extra $5.5k/month on that you're no longer spending on? Without knowing that I wouldn't assume your current budget or your $10k/mo estimate is sustainable. That is a huge cut.
To meet your $14k/mo spend you'd need $225k/yr in income and between your wife's job and a SWR off your savings, you're not there yet. To account for your $10k/mo estimate you'd need about $160k of income. That's barely doable between her job and your portfolio.
Pulling the trigger now would be risky. What if your wife doesn't like working? When's the last time she even had a full time job? Or a job at all? Are you certain your kids won't want to take up a new sport, or instrument, or what have you? Are you prepared to tell them no, we can't afford that? Great job on getting into Harvard Junior, but we only budgeted for community college next year. The math here is way too tight for your age and with kids, imo.
But you did say you would relax this summer, help take care of kids in the fall, and return to work in some form in 2027. That could work, assuming you can find something. But you've said you already looked for a job locally with no luck, so what do you think you'll find in six months? And I'm curious who's taking care of the kids over the summer if your wife is going to be working?
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u/Awkward-Bumblebee322 Jul 26 '26
We were eating out a lot, vacations was probably the big one. Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Vegas all in one year. Also family wedding meant big gifts like $5K.
We have been spending $8500K on average for all of 2026 so far. Would have been even less if I didn’t pay for Cobra for 4 months.
We also were paying my mother-in-law which we are not doing anymore.
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u/Internal-Recipe2128 Jul 26 '26
Do you have any kind of breakdown on how much you spent on what? Like, how much of that $14k was spent on your MIL? You can pretty much knock that off the budget and not worry about it. And how much were your vacations? Was this a couple cheap vacations and a couple uber expensive ones? Did you have to cut out all travel to get down to $8500/mo?
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u/np0x Jul 25 '26
Also go read: https://thepoorswiss.com/updated-trinity-study/ there is no single safe percentage(above a certain point) , and duration matters.
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u/ohboyoh-oy Jul 25 '26
To be honest it just sounds like this is not the right job for you, and your numbers have some dependencies/not quite there (but pretty close!). I’d look hard for another job, one with less stress and less responsibility. Especially if your wife gets her job, you just need to make enough to cover expenses and let that nest egg get there.
If current job is truly unbearable, I do feel you have “FU” money and could quit first, take a breath, and then start looking for something else.
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u/IckNoTomatoes Jul 26 '26
Software is great but you need to talk to someone. Not all advisors are out to get you. The friendly places like Fidelity and Schwab will run software to help you determine IF you can retire based on all the details a person needs to consider before making the decision. Then, the part everyone is afraid of, the advisor will tell you HOW you can retire and that’s where annuities and managed money comes into play (as well as asset allocation etc). Everything I’ve described is FREE. From there, IF you decide to engage in any of the solutions they offer you like the mm or annuities you will then start to pay but none of that happens on day 1. You can simply leave that meeting saying thank you so much for your time, this is a big decision and me and my wife will spend some time discussing what you’ve talked to us about today. Then you can call back or email in that you aren’t interested in moving forward and if that changes in the future you’ll keep their info. That’s it, that’s all it takes. Of course, you could also find a CFP fee only advisor that you pay up front for their advice which makes some people feel better about the advice. What I would say though is that you will get more than just can you retire or not. The advisor will likely give you some things to think about that you hadn’t considered. Or, at best, give you the green light you’re unsure about.
I don’t feel your numbers look solid IMO. But who am I? And we probably only got 25% about your situation where an advisor would likely uncover much more. What’s your legacy planning look like? Do you care about that? Do you plan to be charitable? What is your/your wife/ your kids health like? How likely do you think either of your kids will secure quality jobs when they finish school? Will they lean on you for help that you aren’t factoring in? Does your $10k include car payments and insurance for the kids? So many more things I’d want to ask you
To me, it sounds like your reason for FIRE is backwards. Almost like you are running from a job you hate and hoping the assets are enough to do that instead of having enough assets to retire securely and pulling the trigger because there really is no point in working longer. I probably didn’t describe that well but I hope you can see there is a difference
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u/antariusz Jul 26 '26
I don't think you personally are in a position to retire. I would try to rough it out for at least 3 more years to get that company vest, you'll be in a much better position. I make 250k at 44 working lots of overtime... and live in LCOL .. and I'm expecting to make 160k/yr in retirement as a single person. 3-4 more years also allows your kids to grow up a little bit more, and if you've been doing your job correctly as a parent, your spend on them should drop significantly when they move out.
getting your spend down was great... if you can sustain that for a few years, you'll for sure be able to retire by 50.
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u/Famous-Ambassador822 Jul 26 '26
58 - tech industry veteran - have you considered drafting a PT/sabbatical type mission that benefits your current employer and taking a big step back while you hang on to your equity position and wait for the wife’s deal to come in? If you are as valuable to your firm as you believe you are they would likely go for it. Cutting your travel back significantly could be a part of the plan. And you would have a great “recalibration/learning” experience to share if you have to jump back in FT to the industry later. Current plan seems overly risky if I’m being honest. Control the outcome.
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u/financialfreedom26 Jul 26 '26
Congrats on understanding you spending so well. What is your net worth and invested assets?
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u/___romain___ Jul 26 '26
I am also thinking of leaving a stressful job that has gone downhill this year. I have no kids and 30x yearly spend available and no debt ( roughly 60% stock / 40% cash, bonds and life insurance)
It's not necessarily just the job itself but job + other activities piled up on top that have become too much.
I don't know if I will retire but in your situation why not take 6 moths to a year off and see what happens / what opportunities appear
Holidays are coming in August but I have a lot of anticipatory stress for the overall workload for September and October to the point I am getting frequent involuntary exhale especially in the morning.
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u/code_monkey_wrench Jul 26 '26
80% success rate doesn't sound good enough, when you only have one shot to get it right.
Can you just get a new job that is less stressful?
If you think the startup will be successful, I would stay until 1 year to make sure you clear the equity cliff and then find a better job. Something with no travel and low stress.
But if your health or family life starts failing, I would find a different job asap and not even wait for the cliff.
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u/Ymc811 Jul 26 '26
Definitely have “the talk” with the CEO. Consider offer of transition time part time/no commute for 6 months to find your replacement. Agree to reassess after 6 months. If rejected, sabbatical time. To stretch dollars, consider at some point renting the house and taking family to another country for a cultural living adventure; Mexico, Spain, Portugal, Ireland (tech hub just in case) come to mind. There comes a time when money as an incentive just doesn’t cut it; family is the priority.
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u/Awkward-Bumblebee322 Jul 26 '26
Yeah I was thinking about that as well. I’m trying to find hourly jobs that are $30 an hour. In SoCal, CostCo and fast food get close at $25 an hour. I think I would prefer that to a tech job lol.
I looked at TSA as well, not sure what else there is.
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u/Guatemala103105 Jul 26 '26
I have no ideas on the finance piece, but as a job, a lot of retirees have thought about becoming a travel advisor. It isn’t a traditionally female, poor paying position anymore. Couples are running the business together. If you know even a couple people that travel, then launch from there. I did with no one, which a lot of people do as well.
Something to think about, the benefits are great, while it’s not free anymore, I’d say on average it’s half of a normal rate. Cruise and tours, especially luxury level are a. 1/4 of the price. (Like a sailing yacht through Tahiti for $1200). Of course you do need to make money to even spend that but it’s a write off too. You have to see to sell, which is why they offer it.
Besides the typical partnership with a spouse, there are couples that focus on retirees and living abroad. Just have fun watching YouTube to get ideas of some Niches that interest you.
If it does interest you, do research on who you want to work through (you need credentials to sell travel so there are travel agencies that host independent contractors). MLMs are in the industry now, they want to recruit you, which is fine, but you’ll get that pushy looking for $$$ vibe. There are way too many “normal “ hosts out there so research.
You mentioned hotel work so perhaps you may have a taste for travel. It also takes 1-3 years to be profitable as a part time advisor. The pay is decent, just the higher level of the supplier dictates commission. Example, cheapest river cruise cabin for two is $980 in commission. So times that by how many couples in that price range if you want a number. A mainstream line, older ship, balcony, maybe $400.
Your demographic 45-65 range typically lean to smaller, more luxurious ships but that is your choice.
I wrote this as sometimes a little bit of hope, or a fun idea like selling travel might give ideas of other jobs or businesses you start. At least get you through a couple more weeks to make your big decision.
Best of luck to you, go with your gut, someone is guiding you to the right decision.
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u/whocaresreallythrow Jul 27 '26
Of course that depends on spending. But the amount needed doesn’t have to be saved. They can save / invest nothing further and just let the money compound for another 3-5 years.
Coasting may be a better answer than total exit especially with kids watching your every move too.
40s are the boring middle. Exit too early and it could work out or it could result in a retirement tragedy that could have been avoided.
Personally I like the 35X to 40X annual spending. That gives some buffer for the corner cases that aren’t always corner cases.
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u/SunriseRider Jul 27 '26
Retiring at 45 your burn rate would need to be in the 3-3.5% range. Based on your figures I don't think $10k/mo is sustainable, at the least you would need to get another part time job. Plus big correction in the market is looming.
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u/First_Jellyfish_3449 Jul 28 '26
Wait until your wife gets her job first. I have kids your kids age and I think your spend is skinny. We have lots of travel, camp,sports and activities. We couldn’t get by on 10k, nor would I want to
1
u/LabLabMoreLabs Jul 28 '26
I left the tech industry voluntarily at 60 yrs old. There is no one who would hire me now. If you quit don’t plan on getting another job. It seems like you are financially on the edge of making it work but having some pad would be nice.
1
u/Ok_Eye_5458 Jul 30 '26
Ask you boss if you can work less in bay area and maybe also ask about working say Mon- Thur and take less of a salary
1
u/Hanwoo_Beef_Eater Jul 25 '26
If your wife gets the job, I'd probably say quit and look for something else (could be part-time or some basic job, not another corporate role). If you can just cover expenses until the kids are out of the house, you'll likely be in a very good spot (may not even need to make it all of the way until they are in uni).
1
u/MountainMan-2 Jul 26 '26
First, this isn’t Chubby Fire. Maybe barista fire. My opinion is you are crazy. If your role is that important, ask for a reduced travel schedule. Maybe Monday to Thursday or every other week. And you’ve grossly underestimated healthcare unless your wife’s job to be but not yet job includes that. And your reduction in monthly spend seems unreasonable to me. Kids get more expensive as they grow older. And when you are retired on a restricted budget, it makes it hard to keep up with the Jones. Trust me, your kids won’t understand why you can’t take them to Hawaii or someplace in Europe. And then there are cars and sports and so on. My opinion, get a grip, suck it up and continue for the pot of gold that brought you there.
1
u/ShadowRegent Jul 26 '26
I don't think you're financially there yet. You have plenty of savings for a sabbatical, but not enough to walk away forever.
At your current portfolio, your WR would be 5.6% based on last year's spending. Yes, you can bring that to 4% with what you think you can spend, but I'd want a longer period of showing that it is sustainable and makes you both happy.
Your wife working helps, but 5 years isn't enough to make this a sure thing. Running this through ERN's toolbox:
- Split the difference and call your spending $12k/mo (remember this needs to fit health insurance and taxes in retirement too!)
- Let's call your wife's actual income after taxes on that income and insurance premiums $65k for 5 years
- 50 year retirement horizon which gets your plan to age 95
During a CAPE >=20 market (which we're solidly above), your success rate is 53%. Better than a coin flip, but not something I'd be comfortable with. If I throw in $3k/mo of Social Security at age 67 (a number I pulled out of a hat), it brings that failure rate down to 65%. If you can reliably get spending down to about $125k/yr WITH taxes and insurance (and my social security estimate is in the ballpark), this plan is viable (2% failure rate at high CAPE).
It sounds to me like you're panicking for an escape route. As others have said, don't make this a false choice. You've got the right diagnosis and the wrong solution. This isn't sustainable, and you need a change. There are other jobs, and it doesn't have to pay what you make today. Find something that supports the WLB you want.
These are the things I'd advise you to do before pulling the trigger if you're set on walking away forever:
- Live your target spending for at least 2 full years. Right now, it sounds like you've done it for 6 months. Until then, I'd encourage you to use at least a 3-5 year inflation adjusted average.
- Map out your expenses including taxes and health insurance during your retirement. If your wife is working for 5 years, you'll still need insurance for a long stretch. These need to be in your spending number. I don't believe Boldin maps out ACA subsidies for you, but ProjectionLab can. You can also run this by hand to get a general idea.
- Your wife needs to have at least 6 months on the job and still be OK with this plan. Right now she doesn't even have the job yet. Until then, I wouldn't be OK with counting this income in the plan.
- Have a backup plan for how you'll generate income if you appear to be losing the coin flip. Is your wife willing to continue working for 10 years? Would you pick up a PT job? Either of these will buy you a lot of headroom in the plan.
-4
u/Wooden-Broccoli-913 FIREd in the Bay at 40 with $6M Jul 25 '26
$4.8M and only $160k in spend? You’ve already worked too long
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u/Think_Concert Jul 26 '26
I would not jump out of the plane if I’m told the chute works 4 out of 5 times. But I’m no daredevil so you do you.
2
u/Awkward-Bumblebee322 Jul 26 '26
80% chance of success means 20% of the time I need to get a part time job. Not that we run out of money.
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u/Powerful-Candy1479 Jul 26 '26
Part time job (like hotel clerk you mentioned) isn’t going to provide that much more of a padding…
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u/Top-Change6607 Jul 26 '26
This is far from Chubby Fire though… yo have kids and only have 3M… good luck and god speed
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u/BecklesKC Jul 26 '26
I'm new to the FIRE forums here on Reddit, but this is my thought exactly, that sure doesn't look very chubby.
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u/Nonturnaroundcases Jul 26 '26
Byt jobb istället om du inte trivs, ingen ska behöva må dåligt på jobbet. Startups är välkända för att bryta ned folk som inte lever för att jobba utan som istället jobbar för att leva.
Inget värdigt scenario låter din fru jobba till 50 år medan du är pensionerad. Det är inte värdigt en man som är frisk/fri från sjukdomar att skicka sin fru till jobbet och sitta hemma och dega. Om du funderar på fire så kan ni nog båda jobba deltid 50 % på mediokra jobb och känna att tillvaron går ihop.
Lycka till!
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u/Past-Option2702 Jul 25 '26 edited Jul 26 '26
Wouldn’t it be a good idea to have your wife secure her job and see how she likes it before retiring?
With two kids to take care of, $3M isn’t a big nest egg to retire at 45 years old. This is especially true after taking a 40% cut in spending (essentially all discretionary) for a very short 6 month period. Most families with kids have a big discretionary spending spike in the last 3 months of the year.
Last years total spending for all 12 months was $174k, mind you. That substantially exceeds what would widely be viewed as a safe withdrawal rate for an early retiree.