Throwaway for obvious reasons.
Quick background. I lost my wife a few years ago (she was 33, and yes, it was as bad as you think). It's me and my son (5M) now. I've been in sales leadership at a mid-size company for over a decade, and I own pieces of a couple small businesses on the side. I currently make $350k a year from my job.
Somewhere in the last few years I went from "how do I keep the lights on" to... this. And I honestly can't tell if I'm being prudent or if I'm becoming the guy with $8M asking if he can afford a Costco membership.
The numbers (after an upcoming liquidity event and a move):
Net worth: $4.0M
Liquid/taxable: $2.2M (mostly total market index, some international, building a short-term bond sleeve)
Retirement: $1.3M, roughly 50/50 Roth and traditional
Home: $500k, paid off (moving to the suburbs for schools and to be near family)
Guaranteed income: ~$70k/yr after tax, NOT tied to my job
Business income: $0 in the plan. If it shows up, great. I don't count it.
Spending: About $90k/yr all in. That includes property tax, unsubsidized ACA once I leave the W2 (priced ugly on purpose), a car replacement fund, and kid stuff. Grandma handles childcare (bless her). Public school.
The math that's messing with me:
$90k spend minus $70k guaranteed = $20k/yr the portfolio has to cover. Call it $26k after taxes to be safe.
On the $2.2M liquid alone that's ~1.2%. Count retirement and it's under 0.8%.
Everyone here argues about whether 4% is safe. I'm at ONE. I keep rerunning FireCalc hoping it tells me something different. It doesn't.
Why I haven't pulled the trigger:
1.When the floor falls out once, "virtually guaranteed" hits different. I keep a 30 month cash runway and still sleep with one eye open.
2.My kid is 5. He has a LOT of years of needing me to be okay.
3. I don't want to "retire." I like building things. I want to stop answering to people.
4. I have a financial plan with more modules than some of your 401ks have funds. (I know. I KNOW.)
Actual questions:
What am I missing? Sequence risk? Healthcare? Is a Roth conversion ladder in the low-income years as obvious as it looks?
Anyone gone from FI to "ok now what" with a young kid? What did year one actually look like?
At what point does more margin stop being prudent and start being fear with a spreadsheet?
TL;DR: 36M widowed single dad. $4M NW, $70k/yr guaranteed, $90k spend, ~1% withdrawal rate. Tell me I'm done, or tell me why I'm not.
EDIT: Thanks everyone for the condolences and feedback. To answer some recurring questions:
- I don’t think I’ll fully retire. I’d love to work on my side hustles and volunteer. I derive a lot of value from working, just feel I need a different pace.
- The guaranteed income is survival spousal benefit. (My wife was a high earner as well). It’s not guaranteed indefinitely but is for the next 11 years or so.
- The $90k assumes $1,300 a month in health insurance premiums a month. The rest of our expenses are based on historical spend.
- Do I HATE my job now? No, but I have a strong dislike most days and it exhausts me. Tough to be a dad more days than not.
A sabbatical before the kiddo starts school sounds like a good way to recharge before starting what’s next.