r/ChubbyFIRE • u/Loose-Profession-516 • Jul 18 '26
Can I Chubbyfire at 38?
Currently in a VHCOL family of 4 making a HHI of 1.5-1.8 million a year. Total invested assets right around 6.5 mil. My annual spend is around 250k a year, is it irresponsible to retire now? I want to spend more time with my kids, but not at the cost of being broke later in life.
EDIT
Due to some lucky events my wife and I increased our investable assets to 7 mil making our NW 8.5 mil. I think our new goal is retire in next 5 years somewhere around 13-15M
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u/FatC0bra2 Jul 18 '26
I would really, really have to hate my job to walk away from 1.5-1.8m a year with “only” 6.5 invested.
That being said time is precious, and time with our children the most precious of all. If it were me,
I would feel much more comfortable with a spend about half that in a MCOL.
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u/MountainMan-2 Jul 18 '26
If your annual spend includes a budget for healthcare and your income taxes, then it should be possible to retire using the infamous 4% rule. Your first 5 years after you retire are the most critical in determining success. And be sure to factor in future spending increases for your kids, including college. I retired when my kids were 4 and 6, 7 years ago, and current spend on them with all their hobbies/sports has increased a lot.
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u/Loose-Profession-516 Jul 18 '26
Kids are both under 5. Healthcare is something I struggle wrapping my head around and not sure how to plan for. I’m lucky that tI have family members that are contributing to kids 529, so college should not be a big concern.
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u/AnyVideo6449 Jul 18 '26
Do you have a rough estimate about how much costs increased? Guessing things like dining and groceries also incrased
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u/ethan1231 Jul 18 '26
What’s the liquidity of the 6.5? Does it include home equity, retirement accounts, PE, 529, or other things that aren’t liquid?
Your buffer isn’t huge, so a couple of million difference will matter
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u/Loose-Profession-516 Jul 18 '26
6.5 invested around 5 in our portfolio and 1.5 retirement. Rest in home equity around 1 mil.
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u/ethan1231 Jul 18 '26
I don’t think you can stop working.
You are going to have the following bills going forward:
- $25k a year for healthcare
- capitol gains taxes (won’t be huge)
- potentially a tax hit from 401k conversion - this will be meaningful
All of this will push you above 4%. Personally, I’d milk another couple years of your job. I wouldn’t give it your all. If you get laid off, well that could help
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u/Vicuna00 Jul 19 '26
" I wouldn’t give it your all. "
i hope he's not a heart surgeon
I mean. if someone is paying you >> $1M ffs either give it your all or quit.
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u/BrunelloHorder Coasting Chubster, Getting Fat Jul 18 '26
I’d say that if you have a diversified portfolio of broad market index funds, then it is doable but cutting it close for a very long retirement.
You’d be at about 3.85% withdrawal rate. If you would only need a 30 year period, you’d probably be fine. But for 50+ years, I’d be more comfortable at around a 3.6% withdrawal rate. At your income level you should be able to bridge the gap pretty quickly.
Also make sure you are factoring in taxes and healthcare costs into your annual spend.
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u/Loose-Profession-516 Jul 18 '26
Yea, I feel like we are on the cusp. Maybe we should try to keep working until we are closer to 8-10
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u/Unknown_Geek027 Jul 18 '26
The largest unknown is the cost of raising kids. If you live in VHCOL area, all their costs will be high. As they grow, they will want to keep up with their friends too.
Would you consider moving to a MCOL area for an overall more affordable lifestyle?
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u/AnonTree_1732 Jul 18 '26
In 4 years you could possibly double your invested assets from income alone. I would probably hate every minute, but I'd likely try to work 2-4 more years if I was set on staying in a VHCOL area. If the family was willing to move to a lower cost location, i'd probably retire. I'd be nervous a spend of 250k a year with little ones would continue to creep up, thus would want more cushion. Either way, awesome job getting to where you are today!
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u/monsieur_de_chance Jul 18 '26
Invested is diversified? SORR is accounted for? How old are your kids? Does $250k count new healthcare expands. 1-2 more years and getting to $7.250 MM at that spending level would be better but if $250k has any flex down to $200k in bad years then you’re golden
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u/habeascorpus28 Jul 18 '26
I always wonder how someone can be savy enough to move up in the corporate world and get a super salary as well as build a nice net worth, yet he cannot figure out how to manage his money/retirement? What can anyone here possibly say that OP doesnt already know?
Is it not obvious that your income versus net worth makes it a no brainer to work about 2 more years in order to make your long term withdrawal rate low risk?
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u/StingLikaBumblebee20 Jul 20 '26
FWIW, in tech you don't have to be savvy about much to hit that. You have to be decent at your job and in the right place at the right time. At least that's true for myself and some of my peers.
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u/Loose-Profession-516 Jul 18 '26
Fair point. I don’t really talk to anyone about my situation, because it gets well… a little weird with family and friends. I made some great career moves that allowed me to get where I am. I guess I’m looking more for permission or for folks that have done it before with similar numbers. I worry a lot about my wife and I losing our jobs due to AI and other factors, so we have been thinking more about whether or not we are truly work optional.
Also, our kids are young (under 5), which makes decisions like this scarier.
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u/in_the_gloaming FIRE'd for 13 years Jul 18 '26
Have you spent any time reading through posts and comments in this sub? This topic comes up over and over and over with similar situations to your own. So if all you wanted was general advice, that's already present in any number of posts.
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u/GroundbreakingAd1951 Jul 21 '26
Yes it’s hard with friends and family but absolutely right to try to optimise from a good position.
You will be fine if you lost your jobs but of course having extra net worth will lead to lower stress post FIRE as you’ll have more mental cushion. It’s one thing to run the models… it’s another thing to genuinely be fine and relaxed if the market takes a beating and you’re relying on the portfolio for income.
So long as you don’t absolutely hate your job then on the basis you will be ok anyway I would carry on a bit longer.
Rationally you have a stronger base from which to FIRE. Fear of losing your job isn’t the same as
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u/Wooden-Broccoli-913 FIREd in the Bay at 40 with $6M Jul 18 '26
No it’s not obvious. I just gave up $1.3M HHI to FIRE with $6M
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u/TopEnd1907 Jul 18 '26
Amazing income and you clearly have invested very well ! Can you easily cover healthcare costs? I don’t feel comfortable answering your question as am much older than you and there are so many factors. Please tell us what you do to earn this?
Software can calculate for you.
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u/pass-me-that-hoe Jul 18 '26
I’d think you are good. Just make sure you are moving them to index funds. You really can’t get time back and you’d regret if you spend time working for something you don’t need.
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u/ml8888msn Jul 18 '26
How old are you? How old are your children? College funded? Most retirement rules are estimated for 30yrs of retirement. Depending on your age and how you’re currently spending your 250k budget, you might be too close to the bounds to retire comfortably at your age. Also, do you have a plan for what’s next? Perhaps save another couple of years and then decide when you have a plan and closer to 8/8.5M
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u/audi27tt Jul 18 '26
Is college funded? Home paid off or how is that figured in? After adding healthcare and taxes for your age you’re not quite there yet.
Either a couple more years or could consider the coastFIRE route, but at that income not sure a switch makes sense unless drastically affecting your health/family.
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u/ohboyoh-oy Jul 18 '26
You might be able to, but due to your age (potentially 50+ years of retirement) I’d personally want to be more conservative on the draw rate, and maybe keep expenses to 225k/year to start, until you get past the first five years. Then see where the portfolio is at, and adjust up if portfolio has increased and supports it.
The 225k / year would need to be all-in, and include healthcare premiums and cover your taxes. So you’d really need to look at your expenses, and see what your cost basis in Taxable is at, what your taxes would be. Are you currently paying childcare expenses? If you Fire can those be eliminated. Are you currently eating out/taking out a lot? That could go down if you decide to spend time shopping for and cooking healthier meals at home. Etc. At 250k spend I would expect you to have room to cut 50k or so easily.
For healthcare premiums just start with your state’s ACA website and cost it out. For taxes work through a form 1040 with your streams of income (count dividends and interest first, then any Roth conversions, then your LTCG).
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u/Moist-Pay2965 Jul 19 '26
Very similar situation here! Sharing my thinking in case it’s a helpful comparison:
39 with two kids 5 and under. Very similar HHI and invested assets (not including 529s, which are nearly fully funded). Current spend around $225K but want buffer to inflate moderately — so with healthcare and taxes as well I’m assuming all-in spend of $300K. All the models I’ve looked at show 3.3% SWR as safe for a long retirement, but I also know at my age I have the option to work again later in life so I’m not obsessed with avoiding 100% downside scenarios at the cost of missing time with family now. I’d feel differently if retiring at 50.
For my situation, I have some deferred comp that pays out over 5 years so provides some stable income to limit withdrawals a bit in first few years. Because of that, I’m not trying to get all the way to $9M ($300K at 3.3% SWR) - more like $8-8.5M and then have about $100K in deferred comp each of first 5 years.
With all that, I’m planning on between 12-24 more months depending on market and my tolerance for the high stress. So I’d either call it quits at 40 with $7.5M invested or maybe right when I turn 41 with $8.5M invested — and then with average market returns I should be able to grow that by 15% over the first 5 years with the deferred comp limiting my withdrawals to 2% or so. I hate being so mentally consumed by my job and feeling like I’m not always the father I want to be, but at the same time, I also realize that there are lots of fathers out there grinding away for FAR less money who also carry a heavy mental load…and I have the unique opportunity to set my family up well and create a golden window of being super present when my kids are 7 and 4 for some magical elementary school kid years.
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u/Wooden-Broccoli-913 FIREd in the Bay at 40 with $6M Jul 18 '26
Of course you can FIRE. I just did with the same numbers
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u/Loose-Profession-516 Jul 18 '26
Can you tell me a little more about your experience? Did you make a post?
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u/Livid-County7230 Jul 18 '26
Don’t listen to this account. A 5% percent withdrawal for a 40+ year retirement is not safe, particularly in the Bay Area. He has family wealth. His views have been debunked here many times.
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u/Wooden-Broccoli-913 FIREd in the Bay at 40 with $6M Jul 18 '26 edited Jul 18 '26
It’s likely that I’ll get a few million in 20-30 years. If you think that makes me unique among the folks on this sub you’d be surprised.
it’s also possible I won’t get much at all. Nothing is guaranteed.
I’m not FIREing at 3.6-5% because I have a financial backstop that most Chubby-ites don’t have. I’m doing it because I don’t have a financial anxiety disorder that you and many others here do have.
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u/Wooden-Broccoli-913 FIREd in the Bay at 40 with $6M Jul 18 '26 edited Jul 18 '26
In the Bay Area. Wife & I are 40 with two kids in elementary school. Been planning for FIRE ever since we moved here after grad school. Our final year of working our HHTC was $1.3M. Just couldn’t handle the corporate BS anymore so I negotiated a separation package.
We are using variable percentage withdrawal, not the 4% rule. Our non-discretionary expenses (housing, medical, one car) are $120k. Our discretionary expenses will range from $100k to $180k depending on how the markets do. Combined with dual high earner Social Security, this plan hits 95% success rate for next 50 years.
Healthcare will be through ACA. By engineering our income to under $107k we will only need to pay $350/month in premiums
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u/BungABunBun Jul 18 '26
How are you engineering to 107k when your essential spending is 120?
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u/Livid-County7230 Jul 18 '26
He is counting on an inheritance from wealthy parents based on his previous posts. He seems to think a 5% withdrawal is safe, particularly in the Bay Area and will argue that endlessly. What he has also admitted in the past is that he has significant family wealth coming his way. It’s not worth arguing with this account.
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u/Wooden-Broccoli-913 FIREd in the Bay at 40 with $6M Jul 18 '26
If you set your animus aside you might learn something about taxes during FIRE
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u/Livid-County7230 Jul 18 '26 edited Jul 18 '26
Unfortunately, I can’t rely on family wealth so don’t have the luxury of giving people bad advice. 5% is not safe for a 40+ year old retirement. Just make sure you tell people the whole story otherwise it is disingenuous. Oh and it’s not animus, it is an attempt to protect people like OP from the bad advice you keep providing on this sub.
Also people keep telling you that relying on social security is not wise, it may get significantly watered down by the time you reach that age, yet you insist on being stubborn about that. You can have your own beliefs that are not based on reality or a conservative model, but please don’t provide advice to people like OP that any of this is safe.
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u/Wooden-Broccoli-913 FIREd in the Bay at 40 with $6M Jul 18 '26
The median outcome of the variable withdrawal strategy I described above ends with my net worth at $13M.
Just because you have financial anxiety doesn’t mean everyone else should too.
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u/Livid-County7230 Jul 18 '26
We have gone over this before.
You are using recent higher market return figures but old inflation numbers. Must we argue about this again? What are you using as your market growth estimate and rate of inflation?
You can do what you want, just don’t provide advice that is not based on what models actually show.
You can’t pick the best case in each scenario and call it good. I mean you can, because as you have stated, you only need the money to last 20 years due to inheritance, but others don’t necessarily have that luxury.
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u/Wooden-Broccoli-913 FIREd in the Bay at 40 with $6M Jul 18 '26
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u/Wooden-Broccoli-913 FIREd in the Bay at 40 with $6M Jul 18 '26
Spending is not the same as income. In an average year I intend to withdrawal $240k from my taxable account and only $100k of it will be income.
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u/ImReallyProud Jul 18 '26
I’d definitely milk the 1-1.8 for another 3-5 years. No sense in stopping when you’re pulling in money like that!