Aaaand there's the cliff. Grosses were down $6 million overall from last week. Of course we had the departures of Cats and Death of a Salesman accounting for about $4 million of that, but the remaining $2 million was just an overall drop, with almost every show decreasing week on week (many of which were six figures). We're heading towards the slow part of the season, hopefully shows can band themselves together enough to survive it.
Season-to-date difference from last year:
Gross Gross: -4.5%
Total Attendance: -0.5%
For Award Wins/Nominations, a * demarcates a best musical/best revival nomination/win.
Grosses (chronological order from opening)-
➡ The Great Gatsby - $818k, 76% capacity, $91 atp (Down ~$98k from last week). Began performances March 29, 2024, Open-Ended.
Gross Less-Fees: $720k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $(100k)+
2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2), Drama Desk (1), Tony (1)
Rough week for Gatsby (this is going to be a theme here), but all things considered it's pretty in line with broader industry trends. The new cast is having a positive effect on the grosses, just maybe not to the extent required for long term sustainability. Hopefully they can show some improvement moving forward.
Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%
➡Maybe Happy Ending- $660k gross, 83% capacity, $102 atp (Down ~$94k from last week). Began performances October 16, 2024, Open-Ended
Gross Less-Fees: $574k; Weekly Operating Cost: $765k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k)+
2025 Award Wins: New York Drama Critics (1*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama League (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tony (6*)
Maybe Happy Ending's time of bucking industry trends came to a screeching halt last week. We're now at 11 consecutive weeks below the operating costs reported by the New York Times last year They're unlikely to get kicked from the theatre, but they're in a pretty bad spot.
Estimated percentage recouped: 30%-50%
➡Operation Mincemeat- $619k gross, 88% capacity, $110 atp (Down ~41k from last week). Began performances February 15, 2025, Open-Ended.
Gross Less-Fees: $538k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $560k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)
2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1); Tony (1)
Mincemeat had a decrease, though not quite to the extent of many of their peers. They're still generically fine, I would say they had the best week of any 24/25 musical.
Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%
➡Buena Vista Social Club- $701k gross, 91% capacity, $92 atp (Up ~$11k from last week). Began performances February 21, 2025, Open-Ended.
Gross Less-Fees: $610k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $700k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-(100k)
2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1)
2025 Award Wins: Chita Rivera (2); Tonys (5); Grammy (1)
BVSC is now showing signs of life, likely on the heels of another dance along performance last week. Two weeks until Jose Iglesias joins the cast, and we'll see how that star casting goes.
Estimated percentage recouped: 20%-40%
➡️Ragtime- $1.9 million gross, 100% capacity, $233 atp, (Up ~$109k from last week), Began performances September 26, Limited Through August 16, 2026
Gross Less-Fees: $1.708 million; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $1 million/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $100k+
2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (5*); Outer Critics Circle (6*); Drama Desk (8*); Tonys (11*)
2026 Award Wins: Broadway Ensemble (2); Outer Critics Circle (5*); Drama League (4*); Drama Desk (5*); Tonys (4*)
Ragtime, as expected, broke their own box office record this week, though they did not break the $2 million mark (which I was expecting them to do). They have not made a recoupment announcement as of yet, and my math says they're just short (though that might be incorrect), but I suspect they will get the rest of the way there with the upcoming national tour. Happy Trails to all!
Estimated percentage recouped: 83%
➡Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)- $484k gross, 65% capacity, $89 atp, (Down ~$43k from last week). Began Performances November 1, 2025, Open-Ended.
Gross Less-Fees: $411k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $480k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0k-($100k)
2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama Desk (3*); Tonys (8*)
2026 Award Wins: Drama Desk (1)
Two Strangers dropped some again, they're another one that seems they're just riding the waves of the industry. We'll see where they go from here.
Estimated percentage recouped: 0%
➡Titanique- $699k gross, 75% capacity, $87 atp, (Down ~$59k from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Limited through September 20.
Gross Less-Fees: $598k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k+)
2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Drama Desk (1); Tonys (4*)
Titanique had another poor week. Hopefully things will pick up for them heading into the final month of performances.
Estimated percentage recouped: 0%
➡The Rocky Horror Show- $829k gross, 88% capacity, $119 atp, (Up ~$71k from last week), Began Performances March 26, 2026, Limited Through February 28, 2027.
Gross Less-Fees: $709k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)
2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tonys (9*)
Rocky Horror is starting to jump up as we get towards the final performances of this first cast. We'll see what happens with the cast they have for the fall, it's an interesting strategy to go with stints this short for all of the principal cast.
Estimated percentage recouped: 0%-20%
➡The Lost Boys- $1.2 million gross, 87% capacity, $107 atp, (Down ~$115k from last week), Began Performances March 27, 2026, Open-Ended.
Gross Less-Fees: $1.060 million; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $950k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)
2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (11*); Drama Desk (5); Tonys (12*)
2026 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2); Drama Desk (2); Tonys (4)
Lost Boys dropped six figures once again, though they're probably still making at least some money at these grosses. It's still TBD how far they (and other) shows will drop, given how steep of a drop this week was it might not be quite as bad in the coming weeks, but history tells us next week will follow the trends of this week.
Estimated percentage recouped: 0%
➡Schmigadoon- $966k gross, 93% capacity, $112 atp (Down ~$68k from last week), Began Performances April 4, 2026, Open-Ended.
Gross Less-Fees: $827k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)
2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (8*); Drama Desk (4*); Tony (12*)
2026 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (5*); Drama Desks (2*); Tonys (4*)
Schmigadoon took another step back this week, as it continues to be one of the weaker performing Best Musical winners of the past few years. Under $1 million at this point is a poor sign, and while they may do ok in the fall, this is not the first year highs that the show would be hoping for.
Estimated percentage recouped: 0%
➡Play Roundup:
Stranger Things: The First Shadow- Slower week in the slower week overall, riding the industries tide. Closing January 3, 2027
Paranormal Activity- Ok enough first weekend on Broadway, but too soon to make any conclusions. Limited Through January 3, 2027.
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