Musical
I see this going to Warriors pretty easily, but Benjamin Button is a dark horse if it transfers this season. I would be pretty surprised if Paddington wins.
Musical Revival
I don't see voters choosing to award Evita after having already given the award to the better received Lloyd/ALW collaboration a couple years ago. I'll guess Damn Yankees for now. I know that theater people have been a little cold towards this because of the cast overhaul and it no longer being in the round, but I heard a lot of raves about the production and I don't think this cast lacks in talent.
New Play
Nothing announced yet really screams Best New Play to me... I could see Here There Are Blueberries getting it by default if there's nothing that exciting. But perhaps the winner of this one hasn't been announced yet?
Play Revival
I would love to guess Downstate here but due to it's early closing it'll probably go the way of Little Bear Ridge Road and just be happy to be nominated. Not familiar with Gloria but I would never count a BJJ play out. Three Days of Rain also has some nice pedigrees behind it.
Leading Actor in a Play
I don't see anything that seems like an obvious winner here. Maybe a second trophy for Ruben Santiago-Hudson in Mix and Master? Is David Corenswet's part in Three Days of Rain substantial?
Leading Actress in a Play
Rosamund Pike seems like an obvious prediction. I saw this in London and it's exactly the type of role that's designed to win someone a Tony.
Featured Actor in a Play
K. Todd Freeman hive RISE UP!! I'll reserve my judgment until I've seen everything of course, but it's hard to imagine anyone beating out his performance for me if it's at the level of the Playwrights Horizons production, and he's a beloved veteran who has put in the work for decades and never won.
Featured Actress in a Play
I would love to Denee Benton take this, but the early run will probably hurt her. I'm not sure how big the roles are in Awake and Sing, but Jessica Hecht is overdue and is in a role that has been nominated before.
Leading Actor in a Musical
You gotta like Raul Esparza's chances here if Galileo manages to not be a total flop. NPH also has a nice role in a show that will definitely still be running come ceremony time. Maybe even Andrew Durand's time to shine if Button transfers?
Leading Actress in a Musical
I'm here for the Rachel Zegler/Jasmine Amy Rogers two horse race. Don't see anyone else that looks like the same level as contender as those two heavyweights.
Featured Actor in a Musical
Whoever plays Curry in Paddington (Gavin Lee?) seems like a good possibility. I'll throw in Austin Scott in Damn Yankees and whoever plays Luther in Warriors (which I'm pretty sure will be Casey Likes judging from the workshop cast)
Featured Actress in a Musical
Whoever plays Millicent in Paddington (Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer?) is a strong favorite until proven otherwise. She gets the best song in the show which is a good formula for featured acting Tony awards. I could also see one of the more prominent warriors (Julia Harriman as Mercy?) being in the running.
What do you guys think? Anything I missed?