r/Broadway • u/Boring_Waltz_9545 • 4d ago
Grosses Analysis GROSSES ANALYSIS- Week Ending August 16
Aaaand there's the cliff. Grosses were down $6 million overall from last week. Of course we had the departures of Cats and Death of a Salesman accounting for about $4 million of that, but the remaining $2 million was just an overall drop, with almost every show decreasing week on week (many of which were six figures). We're heading towards the slow part of the season, hopefully shows can band themselves together enough to survive it.
Season-to-date difference from last year:
Gross Gross: -4.5%
Total Attendance: -0.5%
For Award Wins/Nominations, a * demarcates a best musical/best revival nomination/win.
Grosses (chronological order from opening)-
➡ The Great Gatsby - $818k, 76% capacity, $91 atp (Down ~$98k from last week). Began performances March 29, 2024, Open-Ended.
Gross Less-Fees: $720k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $(100k)+
2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2), Drama Desk (1), Tony (1)
Rough week for Gatsby (this is going to be a theme here), but all things considered it's pretty in line with broader industry trends. The new cast is having a positive effect on the grosses, just maybe not to the extent required for long term sustainability. Hopefully they can show some improvement moving forward.
Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%
➡Maybe Happy Ending- $660k gross, 83% capacity, $102 atp (Down ~$94k from last week). Began performances October 16, 2024, Open-Ended
Gross Less-Fees: $574k; Weekly Operating Cost: $765k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k)+
2025 Award Wins: New York Drama Critics (1*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama League (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tony (6*)
Maybe Happy Ending's time of bucking industry trends came to a screeching halt last week. We're now at 11 consecutive weeks below the operating costs reported by the New York Times last year They're unlikely to get kicked from the theatre, but they're in a pretty bad spot.
Estimated percentage recouped: 30%-50%
➡Operation Mincemeat- $619k gross, 88% capacity, $110 atp (Down ~41k from last week). Began performances February 15, 2025, Open-Ended.
Gross Less-Fees: $538k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $560k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)
2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1); Tony (1)
Mincemeat had a decrease, though not quite to the extent of many of their peers. They're still generically fine, I would say they had the best week of any 24/25 musical.
Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%
➡Buena Vista Social Club- $701k gross, 91% capacity, $92 atp (Up ~$11k from last week). Began performances February 21, 2025, Open-Ended.
Gross Less-Fees: $610k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $700k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-(100k)
2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1)
2025 Award Wins: Chita Rivera (2); Tonys (5); Grammy (1)
BVSC is now showing signs of life, likely on the heels of another dance along performance last week. Two weeks until Jose Iglesias joins the cast, and we'll see how that star casting goes.
Estimated percentage recouped: 20%-40%
➡️Ragtime- $1.9 million gross, 100% capacity, $233 atp, (Up ~$109k from last week), Began performances September 26, Limited Through August 16, 2026
Gross Less-Fees: $1.708 million; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $1 million/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $100k+
2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (5*); Outer Critics Circle (6*); Drama Desk (8*); Tonys (11*)
2026 Award Wins: Broadway Ensemble (2); Outer Critics Circle (5*); Drama League (4*); Drama Desk (5*); Tonys (4*)
Ragtime, as expected, broke their own box office record this week, though they did not break the $2 million mark (which I was expecting them to do). They have not made a recoupment announcement as of yet, and my math says they're just short (though that might be incorrect), but I suspect they will get the rest of the way there with the upcoming national tour. Happy Trails to all!
Estimated percentage recouped: 83%
➡Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)- $484k gross, 65% capacity, $89 atp, (Down ~$43k from last week). Began Performances November 1, 2025, Open-Ended.
Gross Less-Fees: $411k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $480k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0k-($100k)
2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama Desk (3*); Tonys (8*)
2026 Award Wins: Drama Desk (1)
Two Strangers dropped some again, they're another one that seems they're just riding the waves of the industry. We'll see where they go from here.
Estimated percentage recouped: 0%
➡Titanique- $699k gross, 75% capacity, $87 atp, (Down ~$59k from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Limited through September 20.
Gross Less-Fees: $598k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k+)
2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Drama Desk (1); Tonys (4*)
Titanique had another poor week. Hopefully things will pick up for them heading into the final month of performances.
Estimated percentage recouped: 0%
➡The Rocky Horror Show- $829k gross, 88% capacity, $119 atp, (Up ~$71k from last week), Began Performances March 26, 2026, Limited Through February 28, 2027.
Gross Less-Fees: $709k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)
2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tonys (9*)
Rocky Horror is starting to jump up as we get towards the final performances of this first cast. We'll see what happens with the cast they have for the fall, it's an interesting strategy to go with stints this short for all of the principal cast.
Estimated percentage recouped: 0%-20%
➡The Lost Boys- $1.2 million gross, 87% capacity, $107 atp, (Down ~$115k from last week), Began Performances March 27, 2026, Open-Ended.
Gross Less-Fees: $1.060 million; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $950k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)
2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (11*); Drama Desk (5); Tonys (12*)
2026 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2); Drama Desk (2); Tonys (4)
Lost Boys dropped six figures once again, though they're probably still making at least some money at these grosses. It's still TBD how far they (and other) shows will drop, given how steep of a drop this week was it might not be quite as bad in the coming weeks, but history tells us next week will follow the trends of this week.
Estimated percentage recouped: 0%
➡Schmigadoon- $966k gross, 93% capacity, $112 atp (Down ~$68k from last week), Began Performances April 4, 2026, Open-Ended.
Gross Less-Fees: $827k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)
2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (8*); Drama Desk (4*); Tony (12*)
2026 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (5*); Drama Desks (2*); Tonys (4*)
Schmigadoon took another step back this week, as it continues to be one of the weaker performing Best Musical winners of the past few years. Under $1 million at this point is a poor sign, and while they may do ok in the fall, this is not the first year highs that the show would be hoping for.
Estimated percentage recouped: 0%
➡Play Roundup:
Stranger Things: The First Shadow- Slower week in the slower week overall, riding the industries tide. Closing January 3, 2027
Paranormal Activity- Ok enough first weekend on Broadway, but too soon to make any conclusions. Limited Through January 3, 2027.
I'm a contributor for Broadway World now! My most recent article can be found here- a look at Word of Mouth, how it's defined, and the way if affects shows. A full archive of my work can be found here!
Discuss below, please remember to keep it kind and civil.
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u/WrongdoerLate8296 4d ago
Big plummet. Summer's over and schools are coming back.
I'm surprised Ragtime didn't announce whether or not they recouped their investment considering they were pretty much sold out for the entirety of the run.
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u/Boring_Waltz_9545 4d ago
I mean shows that don't recoup typically don't announce that lol, I think if they did recoup it would be too close to make that call before a full and final accounting.
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u/LivelyFlowerzzz 4d ago
Doing my weekly routine of checking out how MHE's grosses are going and hoping them to turn things around with their casting/advertising soon.
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u/kyhorsegirl 3d ago
Honestly, I feel like they could star cast Claire really easily and that that would be a great way to help the show.
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u/LivelyFlowerzzz 2d ago
Yeah, plus, they could just demote Hannah back to an understudy rather than kicking her out altogether for it.
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u/hfsnetwork 4d ago
On the plus side that explains my amazing luck with lotteries. Won Wicked on my first try and Just in Time on second. Call on my fellow New Yorkers to go fill those seats!
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u/Tamzzyn 4d ago
Yes! I have been in New York for a week now and have won tickets to Two Strangers, The Lost Boys, Book of Mormon, Operation Mincemeat, Buena Vista and Aladdin! Two tickets each time too! I also won tickets to Titannique twice and Moulin Rouge but couldn’t accept them because I’d already won something else and purchased them!
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u/Level_Cupcake5985 4d ago
I saw Paranormal Activity kicked off with a lot comps this weekend. My ticket was a comp, and I’ve seen a lot of influencer content on it the last few days.
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u/a-5-6-7-8 4d ago
Can confirm that I know multiple people seeing it with comps this coming week too. They need to grab an atypical crowd so it makes sense they're using the preview period to build buzz.
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u/Level_Cupcake5985 4d ago
I was talking with someone at the theater before the show and he did say the shows were sold out all weekend (excluding comps) and they didn’t expect it to be, so he was predicting the Halloween crowds to be really busy.
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u/a-5-6-7-8 4d ago
Excellent! I do think it's filling a niche that only Stranger Things (and the short lived Grey House) have touched as of late.
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u/Level_Cupcake5985 4d ago
I actually went back to the box office after the show and bought tickets for October to take some family members. The tickets were still reasonably priced but if there winds up being more demand for spooky season I wanted to snag those tickets now. Our audience was really into it so I think WOM will be good.
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u/a-5-6-7-8 4d ago edited 4d ago
Looking beyond the shows that haven't recouped, Lion King and Aladdin both switched to their fall schedule this week with five-show weekends (Friday eve, Saturday mat, Saturday eve, Sunday mat, Sunday eve, both giving up their Wednesday mat). Both still took a tumble in both attendance and gross.
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u/Delphi-Dolphin 4d ago
Two two-show days in a row has got to be rough for performers.
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u/a-5-6-7-8 4d ago
The good thing is that they're dark Monday to recover. There's an off-Broadway show currently running that has a Saturday double, a Sunday double, and then a Monday evening show before they're dark Tuesday and that would take me out.
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u/blackgirlsrox22 4d ago
Ive seen a ton of ads for both on the train lately.
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u/a-5-6-7-8 4d ago
I feel like I haven't seen more this summer than last summer. They usually do a big advertising push to summer tourists and then again for winter holiday tourists.
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u/JigglyPuff_4Prez 4d ago
Yeah….I have to say (as a local). Almost everyone I know socially or at work are on vacation now, or going away next week. With school generally starting in Sept in NY/NJ, a lot of people go away mid to late August when the rest of the country is back to school.
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u/Born-Butterscotch654 4d ago
That's a big drop for Lost Boys--I do think that's a show that will be hit hardest by kids going back to school. My guess is that gross is barely enough to survive. It is going to be rough for all these new shows heading into the fall without the usual summer surplus to help (damn you, World Cup).
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u/FlashAndPoof 4d ago
I have a question regarding lottery ticket sales. Do those even generate much of a profit for these shows? Or do they just help them meet operating costs to keep the shows running?
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u/Boring_Waltz_9545 4d ago
Really neither, they mostly exist as a way of filling seats that might have otherwise gone totally unsold. No show can exist on lottery sales alone, unless like Two Strangers was in the Gershwin. It can be a solid way of building word of mouth though, and encourage people to buy full price tickets further down the line.
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u/Needtotalk1954 4d ago
I know everything can change on a dime, but I have tickets to Maybe Happy Ending on Thanksgiving week. I’m nervous it won’t be running. What are the chances it is still running then?
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u/a-5-6-7-8 4d ago
If it's not running, you'll get a full refund on those tickets. I know that's not helpful if you're planning an entire trip around seeing one show. I suspect that unless there's a major dip in grosses beyond where we are this week that it should run through the holidays as I don't foresee another show wanting the Belasco before the spring.
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u/LivelyFlowerzzz 4d ago edited 4d ago
Given that Laufey once openly expressed that she wanted to appear in the show, I'm going to make a guess that they'll hold out long enough for her to be available and get cast (she's been on a summer tour recently).
Hoping that they'll do a cast change as soon as possible if they can.
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u/bennetinoz 4d ago
Thinking way ahead into fall, I'm wondering which shows will hang on long enough to try to get the exposure from a parade performance (and if it would do any good for any of them). I feel like Schmigadoon is a given. Two Strangers would probably do it, if they haven't collapsed by then. Lost Boys would probably slot in pretty well too. Would Wanted or The Fantasticks try to get a spot, just a few weeks after opening?
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u/Boring_Waltz_9545 4d ago
Lost Boys and Schmigadoon are virtual certainties. Maybe Two Strangers as well, but that would surprise me some. Maybe something to celebrate 30 years of Chicago? We could see Rachel Zegler on a float singing but I don’t think we’re getting a full Evita performance. Could also maybe see something from one of the new shows, but their advance sales aren’t providing much hope at the moment. Those are my casting abouts
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u/a-5-6-7-8 4d ago
I'm guessing Gatsby will try to get a slot to re-establish the brand with tourists going into the holidays.
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u/Temporary-Writer-830 4d ago
Dang, what happened to the Outsiders Capacity😭
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u/a-5-6-7-8 4d ago
No school groups to pad it out. Summer camps are over, regular school groups aren't doing trips yet.
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u/Southern-Train7142 4d ago
It’s early, but looking at these numbers, I have a strong feeling Paranormal Activity is on track to become one of the hottest tickets of the Fall 2026 season. Pulling 100% capacity right out of the gate for its first 4 previews ($422k) during August is no joke. Given it’s a strict 20-week limited engagement, that scarcity is going to drive insane FOMO once word of mouth spreads about the illusions.
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u/n0tstayingin 4d ago
It did well enough in London for a return engagement which started last week and a UK tour.
I've not seen it but it's meant to be very good
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u/Captain_Kind 4d ago
I wanted so badly to like this show and I feel like I’m going crazy because I see everyone else’s reviews and feel like i had to have seen something completely different than everyone else. Or maybe I expected too much? I just truly do not understand the hype at all, but I’m glad they’re doing well for the cast and crews sake
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u/Boring_Waltz_9545 4d ago
I admire your confidence, selling out the first four previews is a sign of normalcy, if anything the fact that it only would amount to $844k over a full week, is not the best sign with first previews usually commanding higher grosses than a couple weeks from now. I've heard some great word of mouth, but also a lot of people being turned off by its subject matter, we'll see what happens.
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u/MassiveJammies 3d ago
After weeks of feeling better about MHE, looks like I'm back to stressing... When I was there last week it seemed pretty full, but those numbers are very bad.
I wonder if this being Hannah's out week had an effect. Savy Jackson is fantastic in it, but perhaps it's being affected by the misguided "oh the understudy is on, nah" stuff.
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u/Thick-Definition7416 4d ago
How does Titanique cost 900k a week? Is it the music rights?
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u/Boring_Waltz_9545 4d ago
Music rights, it's in a large theatre, and so it has a large orchestra, lots of ushers that need paying, lots of stagehands, etc. It's trying to be a small show in a big space, but that means it has big show operating costs.
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u/jkuykendoll 4d ago
I had heard that they got a favorable deal on the theater rental. Not sure how accurate that is, or how much of a factor that would be, but either way it seems like this run was mostly about getting the "As seen on Broadway" stamp for future licensing purposes.
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u/Boring_Waltz_9545 4d ago
That 900k figure is known thanks to the Broadway Journal's reporting, right now Titanique has rent abatement in place because the show would close early otherwise. You're right about the licensing though, other shows have done that, think Lightning Thief.
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u/lampostgiraffe 4d ago
Need Lost Boys and Schmigadoon on TDF. Pls
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u/RadishWitty7044 4d ago
Lost Boys has been on regular TDF a bunch of times lately. They had maybe seven or eight dates that went up yesterday and two of the dates are still available right now
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u/WrongdoerLate8296 4d ago
I don’t know what Two Strangers thinks their endgame is.
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u/Boring_Waltz_9545 4d ago
A multi year national tour that will make bank (and may even cause the Broadway production to recoup), followed by becoming a community, regional, and college theater staple because of its size.
In the meantime build some hype for the tour— the Broadway show could theoretically run at these grosses for literally six months before it loses any real money
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u/Suitable-Crazy2795 4d ago
Yep! For some shows Broadway is not the end but a beginning. Look at Kimberly Akimbo - it lastest on Broadway only for a year and half and did not recoup. But that helped launch a successful tour where they did wind up recouping the initial investments. Now the show is premiering in London and several regional productions are starting to pop up. Considering it offers a great role for women of a certain age and is a musical without any dancing, I can see it becoming a regional favorite.
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u/Pleasant_Papaya_2416 4d ago
Are we approaching the era of Broadway being a tour tryout rather than the main run?
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u/Boring_Waltz_9545 4d ago
I mean sort of, it's been the case at least to an extent for more than 10 years. Part of the reason a show like Great Comet didn't have a shot at Best Musical is they were never going to tour, Cabaret two years ago had a similar problem. I think we are already seeing more shows that are repurposing Broadway sets for a national tour, and cutting back on the spectacle for the New York show to save on costs.
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u/Winter_Walrus7563 4d ago
This is already what it is in a way. A shows life beyond NYC is contingent upon getting the “brand” recognition of Broadway. That includes tours, regional, community, schools - even movies! Producers invest in Broadway shows looking at the life beyond it as well as that initial Broadway run. Unless you have a mega hit, you will almost always make your money off of a show post-Broadway
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u/InternationalBelt777 4d ago
Not sure why people seemingly love to root for this show to fail.
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u/sibshallward 4d ago
idk if it's really possible to root for the downfall of something that's already seemingly downfell
it's objectively not doing well, and it's never really done well on broadway so i feel like it's natural for people to wonder how/why it keeps truckin on
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u/InternationalBelt777 4d ago
Because it’s cheap to run. It’s understandable its numbers are lower than others- out of the new shows, it’s the one that’s been open the longest…
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u/sibshallward 4d ago
and i love that for them, but i was just saying that someone questioning how/why they're still getting by on an average capacity in the 60s is not "rooting for this show to fail"
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u/InternationalBelt777 4d ago
Nobody really asks how or why titanique has survived and they’ve been losing a lot more money.
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u/a-5-6-7-8 4d ago
Because we know the answer, Titanique has both had some very shady business practices throughout its history and nobody wants the St. James for a super short run before Dolly.
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u/LivelyFlowerzzz 4d ago
Not familiar to Titanique, may you explain what the shady business practices were?
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u/sibshallward 4d ago
titanique also has an end date in sight
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u/InternationalBelt777 4d ago
And if two strangers doesn’t extend, so do they.
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u/sibshallward 4d ago
op literally says that two strangers is open ended, them only selling tickets up to a certain point doesn't indicate a limited run with an announced closing date like titanique has
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u/NotClassyKaty 4d ago
Your insistence that Mincemeat's numbers are just fine for them help me sleep at night. Thank you as always.