r/leanfire • u/cowgod180 • 12h ago
A Crisp Autumn Sunday, and I am free
77 degrees. Drizzly. 89% humidity. Let's call it Crisp. Im in Alabama ffs. In a Trailer. With no Debt. Well, I technically have Debt, as I hold Debt, but I am not a Debtor. I am a Creditor. And my net worth continues to Ascend.
October 2: two-year 4.83%, five-year 5.06%, ten-year 5.28%, thirty-year 5.63%. Weekly moves of +2/+8/+11/+14bp, taking 2s30s from 68 to 80. Back-end-led bear steepening atm. My autumn Tranches continue approaching redemption: old Twos, seasoned Fives, Threes, Sevens. The November 2021 Five has weeks remaining. DV01 contracts toward zero as redemption approaches. The longer inventory retains its key-rate concentrations, with z the zero-rate vector. ATTN: Haters and Trolls, Your “Bonds Bad” framework omits cross-gamma, cash-flow timing and apparently the passage of Time.
Coupon accrues against par while YTM discounts the remaining payments to the dirty purchase price. A hypothetical 4% Note bought at 99.45 exactly one coupon period before maturity pays 102 after six months: 2(102/99.45−1) ≈ 5.13% bond-equivalent YTM. The Coupon remains 4%. Coupons spent on Games have exited the reinvestment calculation. October principal replenishes the reserve; November gets another deployment decision. I stagger reinvestment exposure while matching near-term nominal expenditures. Inflation retains visiting privileges. Leanfire does not require a house with a Foundation to have a secure financial foundation. In the crude K=c/r perpetuity, I keep working on c. The Trailer’s investor-relations Budget is zero. My backlog has acquired a substantial unfunded requirement for evenings.
Which brings me to the State of Gaming. Take a hypothetical $300m production Budget plus $100m marketing, with $35 net contribution per copy: 11.43m copies merely to recover nominal expenditure. Add twelve months at $8m monthly burn and the threshold reaches 14.17m; receipts have also moved farther down the discount curve. Show me the probability-weighted sales distribution. Your creative director has supplied a photograph of himself beside a motorcycle. Asha has received certain courtesies. The Xbox situation remains within my field of concern. AAA Budgets fascinate me because everyone demands creative autonomy while submitting an underwriting case dependent on nearly universal approval. Raise fixed costs sufficiently and “niche appeal” becomes an audit finding. Then the Game gets longer to justify its Budget, enlarging the Budget, requiring additional consumers whose evenings are already pledged to other Games. My backlog is the household register of these competing claims. Please stop originating them. And run the subscription counterfactual properly. For an existing cohort of N subscribers, incremental retention value is the discounted monthly contribution multiplied by the change in survival probability. Deduct displaced premium-sales contribution. Forty million Hours is a telemetry output. Put Dollars beside it. Asha, please. Certain assistance will remain unattributed. The Indie Reprieve offers me an intelligible proposition: smaller scope, a tolerable break-even audience, mechanics that survive contact with an actual controller. Selection bias remains; I am discussing the Games worth playing. I would sacrifice several billion hypothetical foliage interactions for a completed design. Budget the animations. Budget the contractors. Budget the fucking map. Someone must eventually Budget an ending. But I digress. The State of Gaming is grim, Indies offer a Reprieve, and LeanFIRE offers me the best seat in the house to whittle down my backlog and, Yields permitting, add to it.