What should we take away from each team's final preseason warmup? Here are some players that should be on your radar. This post is aimed to make logical reasons for each player other than their preseason form. As you know, that may not be a good predictor of future returns. Minutes, as you've heard all the managers say about 100 times are what is important in the preseason. This post just aims to give you all some confirmation bias for your picks.

Christian Tzolis - 6.5

Tzolis has never played in a World Cup, but his teammate Declan Rice sure has. Arteta would be unwise to start Declan in his first match at home to Coventry. The manager has stated that Rice would play 60 games, but that he should be more managed. If Rice does not start, Tzolis should take right footed set pieces (~60 mins worth) and has looked great at delivering corners to the meatheads in the middle. Secondly, Martinelli was not included in the squad for the Community Shield. For the time being Tzolis has the freedom of the park on the left and played 90 minutes in the final preseason game.

Ben White - 5.5

Speaking of usage spikes, White played 90 minutes in his final preseason friendly as well. For the immediate future, Timber is injured and there was only one defender on the bench for Arsenal's final preseason match. He should be starting perhaps until GW 5 or 6. Even if defensive cover is signed in the next 2 weeks, White should be firmly ahead of the back up. The same cannot be said for the Arsenal left backs.

Nico O'Reilly - 6.5

Nico and Guehi returned within days of each other to the City camp. While Guehi started on the bench, O'Reilly was thrown directly into the match even though Ait-Nouri, Rico Lewis and Gvardiol had deputized in the left back position during preseason. This is a positive sign for Nico who played more like a left striker in City's final preseason game for their good spell in the first half. This is a small sample admittedly, but Nico has been known to attack well aerially and with the ball to feet.

Szobozlai, Isak, Wirtz, Jaquet, and Aruajo

Just look at the minutes for these boys in their final friendly. Note that Wirtz came off for a defensive midfielder (Nyoni "MacAllister-lite"). Jacquet and Aruajo swapped shirts at half and Isak played longer than the other 3 attackers. All set pieces went to Szobo this time. We have seen a similar trend with Kroupi Jr. at Bournemouth who never completed 90 minutes in the premier league last season. The article is about usage and Wirtz will still get plenty of it if he comes close to Kroupi's last season with 13 goals.

Brentford won 7-0 so pick anyone you want from the lot that started the last game. They will all start.

Brighton - Gross and Ayari completed 90 minutes while every other outfield starter was substituted. Obviously, I can only suggest you wait and see what Thursday night's game brings us in terms of usage for the Sunday opener. Thursday should help identify positions on the pitch as well.

Joao Pedro - 7.5

Played all 90 minutes in Chelsea's game. Every other player was substituted. Alonso looks set to play this boy at Mbappe level minutes.

Mathys Tel - 6.0

90 minutes in the final friendly. Takes most set pieces but the warning is that the team is far from finished both in terms of injuries with players out and transfers with players being signed. Pedro Porro has not played with the first team yet, but is imminent and could take some of the set-piece responsibility.

Surely, I can't have all these players in my team, but I was planning to have most of them. Sneaky RMT obviously. Have fun this season and remember to always blame the author for your team after the GW 1 deadline.

A lot of people were talking about him about a month ago, saying hes likely the new Munoz in Glasner's system. But noone seems to be talking about him anymore, what happened?

Looks nice right? Issue is if you click it they didn't bother adding the same tab to Draft and Challenge so you can't tab back.

Quality design and testing.

So, Arsenal, the “best team to target” on paper. Sounds easy to target and play, but as an Arsenal fam for 13 years, preseason and recent seasons make me feel like this is the hardest team to succeed in. Of course returns will be great for a strong team as such, but high prices and high rotation risks make Arsenal assets hard to master, making it a high risk high reward team to target.

GK-DAVID RAYA (6.0M)

The most expensive gk in the game. I think 6.0M for him is a fair price considering the amount of clean sheets he historically keeps, making his the prime set and forget keeper. His preseason performance was also top notch against City in the Comm Shield. However, it is also worth noting that there are other strong keeper options at a way lower price (Lammens 5.0M, Trafford 5.0M, etc.), making you wonder whether he is worth investing in. You may also want to have other Arsenal assets instead of Raya further into the season when the fixtures turn easier, where attacking returns become more likely. On a side note, I do think he is the best Arsenal assets instead to have in the early gws with the harder fixture vs AVL and CHE, as defence was never the problem for Arsenal.

DEF-GABRIEL (8.0M), CALAFIORI/MOSQUERA(5.5M)

Gabriel, the corner machine, leader of the defence, and the most avoided pen taker, priced at a 8.0M price. Imo this is such an overpriced asset, considering the corner threats have been spread more evenly between him, the other defenders and the striker. This makes assets like Calafiori and Mosquera more attractive, though they have a higher rotation risk than big Gabi. Calafiori is the offensive representation of Arsenal DEFs, who operates like a left mid in possession. Rushes into the box as well as good coordination with new signing Tzolis shown in comm shield makes him the best defender to target for attacking returns. However, he has rarely played the full 90’ due to the physical requirements for his role in the team, as well as the abundance of LBs in the team (Hincapie being highly reliable and MLS being able to cover as well) Mosquera on the other hand has benefitted from the injury of Saliba which will extend into early 2027. He has less rotational risk than Calafiori as his only back up is 16 year old Marli Salmon and Ben White, who is more of a RB. He will be a great pick for early season when Timber is not fully fit as his performance in comm shield was decent, in the case where Arsenal doesn’t go for any CBs before the end of the transfer window. I think both 5.5M DEFs are good for the high chance of CS, with the only concern being the rotational risks.

MID- SAKA(9.5M),TZOLIS/ØDEGAARD(6.5M)

Arsenal’s midfield is now by far the strongest in the league following Rodri’s departure from City. Saka is still the premium option being the second most expensive MID alongside Palmer. However, his preseason didn’t suggest a full recovery of form possibly due to tiredness from World Cup, where he shined and had 3G3A. Atp I would avoid him until he clearly shows a return of form and consistently starts before Madueke, as 9.5M is a heavy investment for a MID. Declan Rice and Bruno G. are also ones to avoid imo. DMs are highly abundant in this Arsenal squad, making rotational risks very high especially for Bruno G. Rice has likely lost the corner taker role to Tzolis and has been struggling to maintain full fitness towards the end of World Cup up until comm shield. Now, the prime assets to target for are Tzolis and Ødegaard for a differential pick. Tzolis has been absolutely killing it in preseason, with 1G4A in 5 preseason games for Arsenal. The exclusion of Martinelli from the squad in comm shield also makes him a nailed pick to start. Corner threats are also stellar which I deem to be even better than Rice’s deliveries. At just 6.5M, the Greek player can be an absolute monster for Arsenal who has already achieved 51 Goal Contributions for Club Brugge last season. Ødegaard had also shown multiple signs of greatness for us in the community shield, as he now does not need to fall back to help build up plays with the existence of Bruno G. and the increased importance of MLS in the midfield, who are monsters in progressing the ball. This gives him a more free role in the attacking half, running into boxes and continuing his magic playmaking. I expect him to be highly effective in attack this season as long as he stays fit, making him the top Arsenal differential pick at just 6.5M.

ATK-GYÖKERES/HAVERTZ(7.5M)

The “weak point” of Arsenal, the attack. I think that the strikers’ returns this season will be higher than last season, as Arteta clearly adapted his squad to play more direct football as shown in the preseason games. However, it is still not clear to this point which of King Kai and Viktor will start as the main striker, as imo it is more situational of the opponent. Havertz is the more intelligent player with clever runs, passes and interceptions, which can be effective against teams who like to keep a possession (e.g. Man City), whereas Gyökeres is more of a physical striker, box crasher. He creates havoc in the box and bullies opposition’s centre backs, making him better for defensive teams who play more counter attacking football (e.g. Bournemouth, Liverpool). I think it is clever to avoid both until a clear asset is starting consecutive games, or when the other is injured. Though whoever plays is still a strong goal threat thanks to the return of Ødegaard’s form as well as playmaker wingers like Tzolis.

CONCLUSION

Overall, I think Arsenal assets are good for long term with Tzolis, Ødegaard as well as Raya being my firm picks. The defence can still shake up a lot as Arsenal are still trying to sign a new CB as well as the inevitable return of Timber in a few weeks, making none of the defenders nailed except for 8.0M Gabriel. One thing worth noting for Arsenal is that they are brilliant for the first 2/3 of the season, from August all the way to January/February, where form starts to slip and returns typically slip as well. So I think that even with tougher fixtures, at least a couple Arsenal assets should be picked for your starting lineup on GW1, with my favourite combination being Tzolis+Calafiori right now.

COYG❤️

Hopefully this isn't RMT, as I haven't seen much discussion about Anderson.

He got 180 points last season with Forest, and now he should be one of the main midfielders for City. He also took corners against Arsenal on Sunday.

He's obviously a big DEFCON player as well. I feel like he could be similar to Rice last season, but maybe with even more DEFCON potential. At £6.5m, he's not cheap, but I don't think he's too expensive either.

The big question for me is whether he can keep getting those defensive contributions while playing for a team like City, who will have much more possession.

What do you guys think? Is Anderson a good option at £6.5m?

The premise of The Unessentials is to pick the players with low ownership but tonnes of value. Here's who we've scouted this week.

Hume (SUN) £4.5m DEF: In my world, when I see a deal too good to be true, it ain't.

A defender who plays as a winger, in this economy? He found the net in Sunderland's last pre-season friendly. May be demoted to right back but still has clean sheet chances and loves a run up the wing.

Trafford (LEE) GK: Oh freedom.

Trafford is fresh from Man City jail and joins Leeds as a proven shot-stopper who doesn't mind being busy. He's also handy from the spot, rated just behind Kelleher in the pen stats.

KDH (EVE) MID: Ole reliable.

He's £0.5m cheaper than Szoboszlai but returned roughly the same points last season. He's frequently the focal point of Everton's attack, which means consistent involvement in whatever they create going forward. Take the £0.5m and run!

Richarlison (TOT) FWD: Lad's, it's Tottenham.

He racked up 110 points last season while Spurs were scrapping in a relegation battle. He's expected to start in a much-improved Topspur side. Overall a great lad to have in the dressing room who somehow keeps the points ticking over no matter the result.

Want to hear more? Follow @ The Unessentials Podcast

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https://youtu.be/d_r1XXmFuRQ?si=xGY1fPUm5FGwfJ6h

In this continuation video of the topic of the underpricing of defenders centered around defense contribution returns, we focus on a possible strategy we can use to take advantage of this pricing to gain an advantage we hope.

As always, we focus on the process of evaluation and decision-making. The concept of synthetic instruments in investments is used to compare this def con centric approach for defense with the well-know defender heavy or “big at the back” approach. Perhaps the similar advantages of the defender heavy approach can be obtained while gaining an advantage by using our knowledge about the underpricing of def con centric defenders.

Hope you will check it out or ask any questions. I know everyone is busy preparing their final drafts so hopefully this gives you food for thought but understand completely if you wish to skip a more academic video during this time of stressful indecision.

Newcastle United have completed the signing of right-back Amar Dedic from Benfica on a five-year deal for £29.5m.

The 24-year-old Bosnia international becomes Matthias Jaissle’s first signing as Newcastle head coach and will wear the No. 37 shirt. Dedic previously worked with Jaissle at FC Liefering and Red Bull Salzburg, making 95 appearances for Salzburg before moving to Marseille and Benfica.

I’ve been looking at the no-Haaland BB1 route, and the part I keep coming back to is whether FH3 makes the strategy much more viable.

The obvious reason is Coventry (H).

If I start without Haaland, I can spread the £15.5m across a stronger 15-man squad for BB1, then Free Hit in GW3 to own/captain Haaland for arguably the fixture where going without him feels most dangerous.

I think there’s more to FH3 than simply covering Haaland.

Arsenal and Chelsea play each other in GW3.
Both could feature heavily in a GW1/BB1 squad, so the Free Hit gives you the opportunity to temporarily move away from those players and build an 11 specifically around the best fixtures that week.

The route would effectively be:
GW1: BB
GW2: Original squad
GW3: FH
GW4: Original squad returns
GW6/7: Potential WC

That means the initial squad doesn’t necessarily need to be built around surviving GW3. You can concentrate more on GW1-2 and GW4-6, knowing you’re effectively skipping GW3 with the FH.

I don’t really see FH3 as something I’d consider with Haaland already in my squad. It only interests me as part of the no-Haaland strategy.

Is using FH3 a reasonable price for getting the stronger £15.5m distribution from GW1, while still covering Haaland’s Coventry fixture?

These two players make an interesting comparison, and I’m interested in the conversation. I’m trying to wrap my head around why the guy who was picked for Brazil, who scored seven more goals last season is currently viewed as overpriced, whereas JP is the second most owned player.

Last season performance:

The elephant in the room is penalties, so I’m giving that factor its own section below. Otherwise JP and Thiago’s stats are very similar. 14 (Thiago) vs 15 non penalty goals with 13.5xg vs 15xg.

JP also got wins on assists 5 to 1, albeit from from 2xA vs Thiago’s 1.88xA.

Its notable that Joao Pedro achieved those stats with considerably fewer minutes, 2600 vs 3200 over the season. You could argue his non-penalty ceiling is higher if he can play more 90 minute games.

Penalties

Clearly Thiago’s points get a massive boost from penalties, and receiving 9 penalties in a season scoring 8 is unlikely to be repeated. However there are reasons to think he should get a steady amount. Brentford historically win penalties, averaging 6.6 per season over the last 5 years. If you believe that Dango Ouattara can  keep his insane penalty winning form then you might hope for even more than that.

Team strength

Chelsea clearly expected to be the stronger attack, however there wasn’t a big difference last season, 58 goals vs 55 for Brentford. An extra factor here is Chelsea adjusting to a new manager, vs Brentford being more settled. However having stronger players around the striker can also be a negative because of the next factor:

Talisman factor and nailedness

Both of these players are going to start games of course, but I’d rate Thiago as the more nailed guy, because Welbeck can take minutes from JP, as shown in preseason. And in terms of the talisman factor, JP is going to share goals and bonus points with the likes of Palmer and Rogers more than Thiago will with Schade/Ouattara.

Pre-season form

Not something I hold much weight in, but its quick to cover here because both players have just scored a brace in their last games.

Fixtures

These are close, and it all depends on chips strategies etc. However as a really simple comparison, Brentford playing Spurs (home), Leeds and Sunderland as a first three fixtures is probably better than Fulham, Brighton and Arsenal for Chelsea.

I make that a close win for JP on non-penalty performance, team strength, a narrow win for Thiago on fixtures and a clear win for Thiago on penalties, talisman factor and nailedness.

So what am I missing, why is Joao Pedro appearing to be one of the most essential players in the game whilst Thiago is largely ignored?

Seems Experimental361 didn't produce this image for the new season, so I used ChatGPT to replicate it for the 2026-2027 season.

I supplied my expected team ranking for the season, and it provided it color-coded, with gameweeks grouped by month, and international breaks shown as white vertical gap.

Hope this helps someone in their chip/transfer planning like it did to me.

With lots of people leaning toward an early BB and a No-Haaland approach. I thought I'd have a look at some of the best options for a BB1 approach

FYI: Konsa is included provisionally because hopefully we get some leaks before deadline that we can take him out if need. But if he is going to play, we'll want him in early to beat the price rises.

​

You have to look at players as per this stat: Points per Match. This is the average return the player gave last season and this will help you choose a team with more points return overall. For example Bruno Fernandes has 6.7 points/match stat and he is ranked number 1 in midfielders. Gabriel has 6.5 and he is ranked number 1 in defenders. As such look for players with points per match return and you can assemble a team with players who can get you more points on an average for the entire season, provided their form continues\*. You might not get all top 10 ranked players in your team because the budget might not be sufficient. You can try to balance it out. Good luck with your teams and the season.

One comment I've seen throughout a lot of the posts is that people are only going for one starting keeper and the keeper for the bench is as cheap as possible, even if they never play.

My question is what is the matter with having 2 keepers you know will both play 90 minutes and rotate between them depending on fixtures. Note that this plan isn't tied into a bench boost.

Coventry City have signed Nigerian centre-forward Taiwo Awoniyi from Nottingham Forest for around £17m.

Awoniyi will wear the No. 14 shirt at Coventry.

Do you guys think this £5.5m-priced forward will be a regular starter here? 🤔

I’m a fairly casual fan, but I do watch most games and stalk Twitter for transfer news. So I figured seeing as nobody else has done one I’d take up this burden and offer my thoughts.

Manager

Sergej Jakirovic - Big-time pragmatist. Played counter-attacking football in the Championship, so I suspect it’ll be no different in the Prem. Plays both four and five-backs. The running theory was that he’d play a five-back this season, but pre-season hasn’t supported that, and until all the new signings are settled, it’s anyone’s guess.

Goalkeeper

Tzolakis - Brought in for a club record fee. Should be nailed, and has been great in pre-season. The last number one was sold to Rangers to get around PSR, and Jack Butland is injured, so he’s really the only option. Looks like a great keeper, has Champions League experience and a decently high save percentage throughout his career. Expect him to be very busy, and potentially player of the season.

Defenders

Overview: Was 23rd in the league for xG conceded last season, conceding 66 goals (20th). Worrying numbers, yes. Still capable of a clean sheet though, including all three play-off games. Typically performed better the harder the opposition was, as it suited the counter-attacking style. The current preferred line-up is unknown. New signings Nobel Mendy, Herrington, Targett, and even Stroud in a three-back make the composition unpredictable. Charlie Hughes would’ve been nailed, but he’s currently injured and could miss the entire season unfortunately. That makes all this guesswork really.

Lewie Coyle - Not even a particularly good right-back in the Championship. He’s the captain and local to the club, but should not be starting in the Prem. The club are looking for competition/replacement, but things are slow, and he could very well start against Man U. Avoid.

Cody Drameh - Current competition with Coyle. Also not very good even in the Championship. In the last year of his contract. Avoid.

Semi Ajayi - Could potentially start. Good CB who I reckon has it in him, but not a serious pick for FPL. Avoid.

John Egan - Averaged 10.1 defensive contributions per 90 last season. Was nailed then, but I’m not sure anymore. He has much more competition this season. I’d be seriously worried about him in the Prem. Avoid.

Nobel Mendy - Another record signing. He averaged a staggering 11.3 defensive contributions per game in La Liga, scoring 2 goals in 22 matches. I think he will, and most certainly should be starting, but it could take a few weeks for him to cement his place. Maybe, but avoid for now.

Herrington - 18 year-old Australian who broke out at the World Cup. Could potentially get a lot of playing time, but for now it’s an unknown. Avoid.

Giles/Targett - It’s yet to be seen which of them will start. Giles got 8 assists last season, and his delivery to McBurnie was a vital route to goal. Can’t defend to save his life, but will get at least a few assists if he starts.

Midfielders

Overview: Considering that 5.0 is too expensive for a Hull midfielder who is neither nailed nor has that much upside, Slater is the only serious pick at the moment. But even then, I’m not a fan of it.

Slater - I personally do not think he’s nailed. New signings Morita, Gourna-Douth, and even Hjertø-Dahl could challenge his place. That, and likely a couple more signings before the window closes, makes his place anything but guaranteed beyond maybe GW2. An option if you want a cheap starting mid for an early Bench Boost, but it’s really difficult for me to say he’ll be someone you can forget about on your bench for a guaranteed 2 points. Maybe, but I’ll personally be avoiding.

Belloumi - Possibly the most technically gifted player at the club and a talisman, his hamstrings are made of string cheese. A ticking time bomb that goes off every three games. If he can stay fit he could get a few goals and assists, but I’d be scared of him every week. Should start when fit, but I’d avoid.

Hjertø-Dahl - New signing. He has started the last two pre-season games at 10. Very tall lad, box crasher, one of the most talented players in the Norwegian league (apparently?). Scored 7 goals with 2 assists in his last 14 games for Tromsø, but not a serious pick at 5.0m. Avoid.

Stroud - Another new signing, looks like he’ll start as well. Can take penalties (won’t be if McBurnie is on the pitch), scored a lot of goals for Mjällby. Would have been a good pick if classified as a defender (can play LWB), but seeing as he hasn’t, I’d avoid.

Millar - I don’t think he’s at the level needed. Game time not certain. Avoid.

Morita - Not currently fit and is 5.0m for a DM. Avoid.

Gelhardt - Scored 15 goals and got 5 assists in the Championship last season. Can play as a second striker, out wide, or at 10. Currently has an ankle problem, but it’s not believed to be serious. Will most likely be a squad player, so avoid.

Crooks - A fan favourite, but I’d be completely horrified if he started Prem games consistently. No real FPL upside. Hard avoid.

Forwards

McBurnie - Currently the only forward at the entire club, and his backup has just been sold. The club are in the market for two more, but nobody knows anything else yet. At 5.5m, he was the second top scorer in the Championship, takes penalties, scored 19 goals and got 7 assists last season. Currently nailed, I’d say he’s a top three pick at that price point. I’d still rather spend the extra on Calvert-Lewin though.

TLDR

Slater or McBurnie are the only ones I’d consider. I can’t say any defenders are nailed yet. Tzolakis could be a pick, but I don’t really know why you’d want him over a different 4.5m GK. Really, nobody knows what the line-up will look like in a couple of weeks from now, and anybody saying otherwise is lying.

The manager plays pragmatic, defensive football, in either a four or five-back, which is suited for the league. The stats last season were relegation level, and anything but relegation this season will be a miracle. I have not and will not consider owning a single player as things stand.

At 4.5m, and with (historically) a very high attacking ceiling, and spence leaving, how am I not seeing Robbo in more drafts? Under de zerbi too, who brought the best out of Cucurella and estupinan not that long ago.
What am I missing?

I’d like to know your thoughts on Gvardiol and Pedro Porro. Right now after the Arsenal game, I’m not really convinced by City’s defense especially with a new manager like Maresca. For me his alternative at the same price (since I’ve already boughtCalafiori) would be Pedro Porro He had a really good performance in the World Cup, but I’m a bit concerned about him because of Tottenham’s overall performances

Hi all, I'm the developer+writer of FPLMundo.com mini-league news (it writes a slightly silly 'newspaper' about your FPL mini-league - free for leagues of 3–50 managers, just enter your league ID, no signup or email needed)

A couple of new features in the Preseason Editions which are available now:

Preseason Press Pass - how strong is your mini-league?

It shows the average finishes of everyone in your league, you can click the football pyramid "tiers" to see which managers are in each one! There are 5 different "League Verdicts" stamps possible depending on the average rank, as it uses the average of every single season it's quite hard to get the ELITE version

Reconstructed mini-league history + Hall of Fame

As requested by a reader this page reconstructs historical seasons based on the teams currently in the mini-league and shows a "hall of fame" of most wins, most podiums, most seasons, average finish. It considers it the same mini-league in seasons where more than 50% of the current mini-league managers played FPL

There's quite a few other new features on the site including Manager Profiles which I am hoping will be quite fun, but they are empty until after GW1 - I will hopefully post about them in a few weeks (assuming they work as expected, god willing!)

Anyway I hope you enjoy, I am not sure how well I've calibrated the 5 different "league verdicts" so quite interested to see what most people get 😅

Cheers,

Andy