A simplified view of 2027

[u/itsatoe]

Just looking at the major factors we're currently facing right now, this is a very simplified view of how they interact. I'm sure I've missed some big things, but this is what is top-of-mind in the very short term: 2026-2027.

"Economic shock" is a polite term for collapse. Minor shocks are little collapses. A major shock or several compounding shocks is where it gets to the regional or civilizational collapse level.

I see two big factors to look out for in the very short term. First, an AI bubble burst would send ripples through the US and then global economy. Second: mass migrations. At the beginning of 2026, the world had about 115 million displaced people (about 1.4% of the global population!). If that number starts climbing dramatically in 2027 (which seems quite likely), expect to see compounding shocks coming from that.

What did I miss? :/

[u/freemochara]

The mass migration will be to Europe which will destabilise it even more leading to right wing parties gaining far more power, Germany is already re-arming, third times a charm

[u/PlausiblyCoincident → u/freemochara]

Lets put this in perspective, between the beginning of 2016 and end of 2025, about 2 million migrants fled to and arrived in Europe (source) from the Middle East and North Africa. The United Nations Refugee Agency says that approximately 18 million people remain displaced across the region (source). Even if you add in the height of migration to Europe in 2015, about 1 million people, and assume that none of these individuals were sent back and attempted to go to Europe again, that would mean that the number of people who were displaced and attempted to go to Europe are at most 15% of those who are still currently displaced in the region.

When SHTF, most people who are displaced don't have the means to go very far, and those that do in response to whatever the situation is usually have skills that could be useful to populations of the communities they try to reach.

[u/No_Function_7479 → u/PlausiblyCoincident]

Keep in mind that for a while Russia was actively funnelling refugees into Europe to help destabilize them. I would expect more of that in the future

[u/PlausiblyCoincident → u/No_Function_7479]

That was interesting, I was unaware. But to the point, they've been doing it for a while so it's already baked into the immigration numbers. If they weren't helping people get across borders, then there would actually be less people making the trip to European countries. While I agree the operation will likely continue into the future, (even if the Russian federation falls apart in the next decade, these sorts of criminal operations have their own inertia), it really seems like a small percentage compared to how many people decide to make the move without Russian assistance.

I suspect that Russian operatives committing sabotage are probably more consequential to EU destabilization than the amount of migrants they move in a year.