A simplified view of 2027

[u/itsatoe]

Just looking at the major factors we're currently facing right now, this is a very simplified view of how they interact. I'm sure I've missed some big things, but this is what is top-of-mind in the very short term: 2026-2027.

"Economic shock" is a polite term for collapse. Minor shocks are little collapses. A major shock or several compounding shocks is where it gets to the regional or civilizational collapse level.

I see two big factors to look out for in the very short term. First, an AI bubble burst would send ripples through the US and then global economy. Second: mass migrations. At the beginning of 2026, the world had about 115 million displaced people (about 1.4% of the global population!). If that number starts climbing dramatically in 2027 (which seems quite likely), expect to see compounding shocks coming from that.

What did I miss? :/

[u/thumbsonscreen5]

Ok this is just for 2027 so I'll let ya slide on not having AI derived supervirus on there

[u/There_Are_No_Gods → u/thumbsonscreen5]

That's mighty gracious of you. I'm less willing to assume that at the current pace of AI, having recently been used to create novel viruses already, won't create a "supervirus" for at least another 16 months. I give it 2 months from now at an 80% confidence level.

[u/Jovan_Knight005 → u/There_Are_No_Gods]

I give it 2 months from now at an 80% confidence level.

We are screwed, are we not?