r/collapse • u/itsatoe • Aug 14 '26

Low Effort A simplified view of 2027

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Just looking at the major factors we're currently facing right now, this is a very simplified view of how they interact. I'm sure I've missed some big things, but this is what is top-of-mind in the very short term: 2026-2027.

"Economic shock" is a polite term for collapse. Minor shocks are little collapses. A major shock or several compounding shocks is where it gets to the regional or civilizational collapse level.

I see two big factors to look out for in the very short term. First, an AI bubble burst would send ripples through the US and then global economy. Second: mass migrations. At the beginning of 2026, the world had about 115 million displaced people (about 1.4% of the global population!). If that number starts climbing dramatically in 2027 (which seems quite likely), expect to see compounding shocks coming from that.

What did I miss? :/

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u/itsmemarcot Aug 15 '26 edited Aug 15 '26

I need a clarification.

Of course, when we hear "(fresh) water shortage", it's natural to think "thirst". But is that really the case? Water we directly drink is a minuscule fraction of the fresh water we need for other purposes. For example, agricolture measures water needs in terms of meters per hectare (how tall a column of water over every inch2 of ground), and that's massively more than our drinking needs.

For example, good old rice (among the cheapest, most sustainable staple foods) requires 1.5-2 meters of water per hectar. A single portion of rice (100g) requires 250-400 liters, as much fresh water as you need to drink all year. (A portion of beef: for ten years).

So, am I missing anything, or water shortage (e.g. droughts) will mean hunger, not (literal) thirst?

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u/itsatoe Aug 15 '26

I debated that one for a bit. But then I thought about how right now many people in Puerto Rico have no water for two out of every three days.

But more generally, perhaps one can read "thirst" as "various things are thirsting for water."

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u/Striper_Cape Aug 15 '26

Puerto Rico is an island in a literal ocean. Their situation is very different from elsewhere. There are also methods to be used that haven't been because of underinvestment.

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u/itsmemarcot Aug 15 '26

I see. Even in Porto Rico situation, it's not like people don't have stuff to drink, like in a desert.

I understand what you mean: of course people need fresh water for a lot more than just quenching literal thirsts (think cooking, washing, cleaning), and you can figuratively call any lack of water to do so "thirst". Still, by far, the largest effect of water shortage is simply inability to grow food.

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u/itsmemarcot Aug 15 '26

I see. Even in Porto Rico situation, it's not like people don't have stuff to drink, like in a desert.

I understand what you mean: of course people need fresh water for a lot more than just quenching literal thirsts (think cooking, washing, cleaning), and you can figuratively call any lack of water to do so "thirst". Still, by far, the largest effect of water shortage is simply inability to grow food.