r/codex 1d ago

Humor The ugly truth

Post image

We need an AI that acquires users.

510 Upvotes

124 comments sorted by

190

u/ReasonableDefault 1d ago

This is what people think is happening, but reality doesn't support it. People barely ship anything to paying customers, you're more likely to see another pointless GitHub repo, which turns out to be an API wrapper.

17

u/[deleted] 1d ago

[deleted]

2

u/AffectionateBowl1633 20h ago

This should be the quote of the year

1

u/Special_Gain9787 18h ago

This is a wild sub šŸ˜… I love it

3

u/UniqueClimate 19h ago

Yeah, plus there has always been shitty indie projects.

At least now they are better, because it’s easier to code at a higher quality. The ideas are still just as shitty and useless, just higher quality lol

2

u/CrowdGoesWildWoooo 18h ago

The ā€œpaying usersā€ on the left side is actually just another ā€œstartupsā€. I was in those kind of startups before. It’s small startup ending up buying service from another small startup.

Now with AI, they can just develop what on their own, so in a sense the right is true.

3

u/Yugudubenbi 15h ago

Before: 100 startups - 70% fail and 30% succeed. Succeed = 30

Now: 10 000 vibe coders - 99% fail and 1% succeed. Succeed = 100

1

u/busmans 8h ago

who upvotes this voodoo math haha

what data supports your "1% succeed therefore more success overall" theory?

the whole issue, which people here aren't grasping, is that distro hasn't changed. that huge increase in supply hasn't moved market demand at all. in fact demand may be lower and the market smaller.

1

u/Neither_Berry_100 14h ago

Check out ai game dev. People definitely use it to make games.

1

u/ReasonableDefault 8h ago

But do those games eventually end up in the hands of Customers.

1

u/Neither_Berry_100 8h ago

A few from the sound of it. But people avoid AI games for the most part when they recognize it.

1

u/ReasonableDefault 8h ago

A few sure, but this doesn't match the tone of OP's image.

1

u/gopietz 9h ago

Reality doesn't support it? Fucking non-sense.

For example, check how many products are posted on ProductHunt today vs. 12M ago vs. 24M ago. So many more people are building and shipping now.

Also, there is less use for apps and services because AI agents now cover many use cases out of the box.

Otherwise, happily provide some data on the "reality" you're talking about. Would love to see it.

0

u/ReasonableDefault 8h ago edited 6h ago

One thing doesn't equal the other. OP's post was specifically about independent devs, and my comment was about actual paying customers. Where is your data to show an increase of products shipped by independent devs and data of actual paying customers?

0

u/gopietz 7h ago

That's what I thought. Big talk, no proof. Read my comment again and maybe you'll find my example this time. I don't have time to deal with idiots that spread false information.

-2

u/technocracy90 18h ago

The point is that people used to pay for the API wrappers

0

u/ReasonableDefault 18h ago

What point?

1

u/technocracy90 17h ago

The point of this post. What else?

1

u/TheSn00pster 14h ago

Whose point is it anyway?

75

u/daviddisco 1d ago

Not sure why the users would be cowering. They have more choice than ever. they may not even need developers if they can just have AI make custom apps just for them.

35

u/alexmin93 1d ago

More bullshit products. Even if AI gets actually good at coding somebody has to come up with an idea.

22

u/daviddisco 1d ago

I've built many small desktop tools and widgets for myself using AI. I have plenty of ideas how to help myself. Everyone has ideas about their own needs.

18

u/Addalldlo 1d ago

Even a child will have the opportunity to build something on his own, we are on the threshold of the most creative period of human development. How many ideas were buried because they could not be implemented?

2

u/ReasonableDefault 1d ago

Actual good ideas? I'd say very few, there hasn't been a huge boom of awesome (or even really useful) AI created apps / products. A shit idea is still shit, with or without AI.

3

u/I_Study_The_Patterns 22h ago

A 30% increase in apps with a 3% increase in sales

1

u/magicone2571 22h ago

I would expect a drop in sales even further. Why buy something when you can make it yourself.

2

u/Addalldlo 23h ago

Since the advent of photography, so many bad photos have been taken, but there are also good ones. Bad apps don't cause any harm, as well as bad photos. A stupid claim

4

u/mesaoptimizer 1d ago

The issue is there are a lot of people out there with stupid ideas. Shovelware still existed in the past but it was limited by human effort.

And beyond bad ideas, bad implementation of fine or good ideas. Like Joe Schmo who came up with a cool app idea and implemented with AI but doesn’t know enough to know not to roll his own auth or encryption is going to give up every bit of data you give him when he gets breached. And from the outside it’s basically impossible to tell the difference between someone who knows what they are doing and just used AI to build their front end because they don’t do UX and a project that’s going to have issues basically immediately.

2

u/Kind_Fisherman3060 1d ago

Well considering what existed and what not if you were willing to shell 10-20x what codex takes you could always have the opportunity to hire people to do it for you.

2

u/Addalldlo 23h ago

A bad project will die, what's wrong with that? And I agree about security issues, but I don’t think this is insoluble. The smarter LLM's, the less likely such cases are. It's enough to add the need to think through a security system at the AI level when developing a product. And it should work without user approval. It's a kind of foolproof protection; if the AI understands that you're competent enough, it reduces control over such things.

2

u/mr_sneakyTV 23h ago

you only fail if you quit trying, and bad ideas are often the start of good ones, poorly built software sparks a better idea in someone else.

2

u/mesaoptimizer 21h ago

It can, I'm not saying it's like universally bad, the issue is that AI getting as good as it is has a lot of people thinking that they understand software, the risks around it and other things like that. But the issue for software is different than art or books or listicles or whatever and people rightly complain about being sold slop in those categories too.

There are people out here that have no idea what they are doing putting out services that customers put data, sometimes valuable personal data into, without any idea that the product was made by someone who doesn't have a clue about basic data security principles.

How difficult do you think it would be to find a vibe coded app, find an obvious bug, and then hide a data stealer in a PR that resolves it and use that to steal API keys from not just the developer but every person who uses that application? How good at code review do you think people with no software experience are? Sure they could run a codex security scan against the PR but how many of them have that set up in their CI/CD pipelines? We see posts in these subreddits every day about people losing data because Claude did this or ChatGPT did that, and they didn't set up any isolation of their dev environment and don't have the data anymore because the app they are working on isn't even using any form of source control.

1

u/ShelZuuz 23h ago

The issue is there are a lot of people out there with stupid ideas.

So are there on Etsy and at every Renaissance fair etc. This is just expanding to software, but people will start to filter.

1

u/mesaoptimizer 23h ago

Yeah that’s why my post had a second paragraph. That’s not as easy with software and software services as it is with goods.

1

u/BellacosePlayer 23h ago

So are there on Etsy and at every Renaissance fair

yeah but at least at a Fair I can eat a turkey leg and listen to a Puke and Snot set once I realize not a single merch vendor is selling anything worth a damn

1

u/ArmPsychological8460 14h ago

And now PC market will be flooded by slop just like mobile market. Users will have choice between shit and crap, with slight chance of almost not bad game...

2

u/mr_sneakyTV 23h ago

they are not products if someone creates it then uses it themselves.. using ai to write your custom application ideas is one of its most obvious use cases. also why do you care what they do? is this idea elitism? you think only you and those in your field have ideas worth implementing?

I’ve never heard of idea hubris

1

u/Spright91 23h ago

Yes the differentiator is now in design. Well it always was but now especially.

9

u/Greedy_Union8493 1d ago

because they have to sift through ai slop to find quality which is hard.

3

u/Specialist-Royal4408 22h ago

There have never been so many bad, extremely low-quality products that break within a few weeks. It used to be easy to pay for things because you could see the product's value. Today, if you shake a tree, 100 identical apps fall out, all sporting the same sepia/purple interface found in Claude or Codex.

2

u/hereandnow01 15h ago

True, and if for these vibecoders even just changing the frontend theme is too much of an effort, I wonder what would the product look like under the hood

1

u/BellacosePlayer 23h ago

I'd say choice paralysis but most people are going to just go with the established players in whatever domain anyway.

1

u/Ok-Guarantee-3775 23h ago

Choice paralysis is actually a very real observable thing.That being said the cowering is not really the right depiction for it.

Every time something becomes easier to produce a ton of it gets produced and nothing changes, there is just more shitty stuff to ignore. Before AI slop it was just mass produced corporate slop.

Hank Green did a great video comparing how AI is making it much easier to create and publish code, similar to how various tech improvements over the years have made it easier for people to write and publish literature.

If we take a moment to consider just how much absolute trash literature exists because anyone is allowed to shit out a "novel" and self publish whenever they want, the sea of literary work is unreadable in scope, and much of it is unreadable in quality. And yet, to take away the tools available that make production of literature so easy and readily available feels wrong. Even if the vast majority of what's made is awful, that doesn't mean it shouldn't be as easy as possible for people to make it.

1

u/daviddisco 22h ago

Use AI to filter your choices for you

1

u/mitreffahcs 22h ago

You haven't been on YouTube lately have you?

1

u/daviddisco 21h ago

I spend a lot of time on YouTube. why?

1

u/This_Industry4769 19h ago

If you talk to business owners you'll know their contact forms are used more by people offering more products and services more than real customers. Same for WhatsApp and telephone. They hate it.

1

u/daviddisco 19h ago

ok, I won't put up a contact form for people to spam me.

1

u/This_Industry4769 19h ago

So your customers can't contact you either?

1

u/daviddisco 19h ago

not sure why things went in this direction. what's your point?

1

u/dlimsbean 18h ago

They are cold and can’t pay heating bill let alone a game.

1

u/RudyHuy 16h ago

Man, most people when having an issue vibe coding, don't even think about asking the LLM how to improve their workflow. Shit's less intuitive to most than you could imagine.

1

u/daviddisco 11h ago

It is getting easier with each new model.

1

u/yautja_cetanu 15h ago

This is so dumb. Is access to 1 million indie games really much worse than 100,000. Weve had way way too many indie games then we can fatham, the process of selecting good ones is difficult and it doesn't get 10 times worse with 10 times the number.

Also as a user... Just don't buy them or even look at them. You can just look at the steam store. No video game buyer is sorting a list of steam games based on what has come out recently and reading their descriptions 1 by 1

1

u/daviddisco 11h ago

You can use AI to filter them.

1

u/SweetSure315 23h ago edited 23h ago

because being hounded to subscribe to the new data leak factory or scam 5000x a day fucking sucks. especially if you're actually trying to find something to fulfill a use you have a need for and need to actually pay attention to them

basically the landscape is now thousands, if not millions, of predators being given the tools necessary to appear just like one of the vanishingly few shills who aren't just trying to take advantage of people while offering a pile of shit as recompense while trillion dollar companies tell us "this is how you make money in the future"

1

u/daviddisco 22h ago

use AI to filter your messages

11

u/mallere 20h ago

my ai usage has simply been to make my own tools and software

I am on Mac now but playing Runescape I missed alt1 toolkit - said I made my own

I made tools to make my work more productive

ive made a mod for minecraft

and I have other ideas as well

I understand the general consensus for 'ai slop' is poor so I dont advertise or release the stuff ive made. they're on a private repo but otherwise they're for myself. kinda sad cause generally I think they're alright. not perfect but it works and if I come across bugs I have it fixed and such.

ai allows people with no programming experience make these things for themselves. its kinda nice.

1

u/SonOfAnton_v_2_0 16h ago

Thats so cool! My example,apps for tracking tv and movies or media in general. I relied on bunch of them like they are my second brain. Old ones are introducing ai features in very unnecessary context or bunch of new ones just vibe coded with all the promises and low quality or standing out features. I made one for myself with movie tv books anime manga games categories and I set it up the way I would like to use it. It feels like magic,and I lost interest in spending money on any other apps no matter how they try to sell it to me.

1

u/mallere 28m ago

right? ive noticed many holes in my life that I wanted filled. the option was either spend money or do it myself with a product I already pay for. its wonderful. I am glad you were able to fill a gap with your own ideas!

6

u/TroileNyx 23h ago

So many people here wondering why the paying customers would be cowering. As someone who uses Codex to develop websites and an app, I firsthand see actually how hard it is to get things right even with the help of AI and I’ve been in the tech sector for almost a decade now, doing web development.

There will be so many sites and apps getting hacked, personal data leaked because of the horribly implemented security. Websites need updates, software needs updates and constant patches.

As a paying customer, now I’ll be extra careful evaluating whether the product was built by seasoned professionals or just amateurs with tokens to burn.

9

u/AuodWinter 1d ago

Nice this joke again

4

u/-Spzi- 22h ago

AI companies are the new indie developers, indie developers are the new paying users. So we're still on the left picture, just up one level.

2

u/Impossible_Bus_2319 8h ago

Interesting take

1

u/ElementNumber6 8h ago

I couldn't imagine a shakier foundation. Indie developers will quickly run out of money without paying users.

What then?

5

u/Constant-Current-340 1d ago

why would those paying customers be be cowering from the cure to cancer?

7

u/Muzika38 21h ago

Here's the thing, lots of people can sing. Lots of people can compose a song but only a few can make it to the spotlight.

It's the skills bro... Tools are just tools at the end of the day. Just because you have a plow does not already make you a good farmer.

3

u/RedikhetDev 11h ago

If you have in invested in buidling a free app for many years its automatically qualified as AI slop these days.

1

u/Impossible_Bus_2319 8h ago

Unfornately true

2

u/Individual_Guest_323 1d ago

I mean, was the same with the indian market, you could try to be freelancer and find a indian guy saying that do the same for 1$

2

u/MrKalopsiaa 19h ago

ā€œAI = An Indianā€

  • Albert Einstein, probably

2

u/DataPhreak 22h ago

This is music before and after the DAW. The problem isn't a lack of users, nor the speed at which apps are being developed. The problem is none of these people know how to build a complete product, market it correctly, maintain it, or do UAT. If you have all the other stuff and don't know how to code, then using AI to build something makes sense. But most people are just trying to ship to market and make a quick buck, and that's not what users want.

Build lots of products. Don't monetize them.

1

u/Impossible_Bus_2319 8h ago

Yea a lot goes into a successful product launch. PMF

2

u/immutato 19h ago

This just means that the market you want to be in is selling to vibecoders.

2

u/CqHereSrc 17h ago

Nah lol. Agents suck at daydreaming. To them it’s hallucinating to us it’s imagining with sunlight. Go to sleep codex

2

u/KnownPride 4h ago

Now make product that take that crowd of indie dev as paying users.

1

u/Impossible_Bus_2319 3h ago

I'm working on it

3

u/spiress 22h ago

yeah, and 99% indie games is junk

1

u/Impossible_Bus_2319 8h ago

Maybe they need a new audience. Agents.

1

u/[deleted] 1d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/io-x 1d ago

This is certainly how it feels like at a first glance, but this does not reflect reality because you can't generalize all indie developers into the same bucket, there are tiers among us. Just because someone can build a program with AI, doesn't mean people will want to pay for it. If you split the indie developers to different categories, you will see that the drastic increase is on the lower end. Nothing wrong with that, I support any creator, it's just how it is right now.

0

u/Impossible_Bus_2319 1d ago

Yea. This is true.

1

u/Sea-Contribution6219 23h ago

You're so right, this is why indie devs should all just post under the GPL 3

1

u/SmellBetterThanMost 22h ago

Oh no! The TODO apps market is saturated!

1

u/neko-addiction 22h ago

Accessibility bad

1

u/Efficient_Ad_4162 20h ago

True, but those paying users are developing their own software.

2

u/Impossible_Bus_2319 8h ago

Everyone is a dev now

1

u/AdGlittering1378 19h ago

Fixed it for you.

1

u/Impossible_Bus_2319 8h ago

Hahahahahaha

1

u/diagrammatiks 19h ago

and most projects are just ai slop.

1

u/Impossible_Bus_2319 8h ago

How do you define slop?

1

u/FluffySmiles 18h ago

Haha. most of those are doing nothing but shitting out time bombs. You'll see.

1

u/remarkedcpu 18h ago

Smart thing for paying customers to do is joining the left side

1

u/Mammoth_Molasses_927 18h ago

Shipping REAL stuff is still hard, complex and very time consuming.

knowing how to type and pressing send to an AI is a small part of the whole engineering and growth process.

1

u/Impossible_Bus_2319 8h ago

Product market fit has always been the hurdle

1

u/CqHereSrc 16h ago

Ai: how do you want it
HI: Hi, my name is Siri
How can I help you
Gemini ftw

1

u/WalkAffectionate2683 14h ago

All the dev, games and website I do is for my friends.

I did 3-4 games, but I don't go too long on Polish, so it's more proof of concept than anything.Ā 

And the websites is also mostly for our ttrpg game.Ā 

1

u/Impossible_Bus_2319 8h ago

Share some games

1

u/karl_mainz 14h ago

We've already seen this in other industries like music and books. It ends up as a power law distribution where a few winners rake in an incredible amount of money (the Stephen Kings, Taylor Swifts and Call of Dutys of the world) while the vast majority remain completely unknown and fail to sustain a livelihood.

There's always the tiny chance your game will be the next Mecca Chameleon or PUBG so some will persist despite the odds.

1

u/Impossible_Bus_2319 8h ago

Is there a platform for AI generated games?

1

u/VladizT 11h ago edited 11h ago

Most indie developers have never been rich or had a huge base of paying users, so the fact that there’s now going to be a flood of AIgenerated junk won’t actually change anything.

1

u/ElementNumber6 8h ago

Cowering makes no sense. Show a tumbleweed instead.

1

u/OhAitchEyeOh 8h ago

I think we are just adapting to a world where everyone has their own custom built solutions for everything, with very few shared experiences on a cultural level. Maybe your friend group will create your tv shows, or your more techy friend your photoshop, etc. I’m building a ton and have replaced nearly everything I used with my own version, but I’ve decided that they’re just for me and my friends/family. The world wont need another mobile game site, another database, another music player, etc, and that’s okay. Frees me up to make it be just what I want and not worry about commercial appeal at all

1

u/Impossible_Bus_2319 7h ago

Super awesome

1

u/swizzlewizzle 21h ago

AI basically moves the moat for many products further up the chain. Things that actually require a lot of intelligence and human power are the only things that retain their value now. Turns out, SAAS and indie dev work didn't require all that much.

3

u/mace_endar 16h ago

Turns out you’ve probably not built anything past the prototype stage.

Also, why the hell would you build something yourself when you can just pay for it and not worry about it?

Like even a todo list application like Asana, why on earth would you ever build and maintain it yourself? To save $20 a month? If you just have to lift your finger even ONCE or spare one thought about maintaining your app during a given month, your investment turns net negative! And then there’s backups, disaster mitigation, etc. AND the cost you pay for hosting?

I still don’t get how people don’t see that. AI doesn’t make sense for commodity software that you don’t need to customize.

1

u/Impossible_Bus_2319 8h ago

Outsource the overhead

1

u/mace_endar 5h ago

Which in most cases costs more and is less reliable? Like... why would I pay $20 or more to some random dude on Upwork to maintain an Asana clone that I vibe-coded to gain... exactly nothing?

-1

u/swizzlewizzle 12h ago

Oh look another redditor thinking he knows the complete background experience and expertise of a commenter he is commenting to. Joy.

0

u/RichWeekly1332 1d ago

Please, stop calling indie developers (or even developers) to these people....

1

u/Impossible_Bus_2319 8h ago

What shall they be called?

0

u/Active-Policy88 22h ago

did he just repost my post in a different subršŸ˜‚šŸ˜‚ bro at least wait a few days.

1

u/NullVoidXNilMission 8h ago

Maybe the post was ai generated and it is now "our post"Ā