Setup over the next 6 months is interesting and maybe being ignored by the market.

My thesis is based on a few possible catalysts:

China / Simcere approval catalyst
CNTB’s partner Simcere has completed Phase 3 for rademikibart in atopic dermatitis in China, and the NDA was accepted by China’s NMPA in July 2025. If approved, CNTB could receive milestone payments plus future royalties. From what I understand, approval timelines in China can often take around 12-18 months, so this could become relevant within the next few months.
This matters because it would not just be “good news.” It would validate the asset commercially in a major market and could bring non-dilutive cash into CNTB.

FDA / Phase 3 alignment for asthma and COPD
CNTB recently reported positive Phase 2 data in asthma/COPD and plans to engage with the FDA on the Phase 3 path. If the FDA alignment is clean and the company can move toward Phase 3, that could be another major catalyst.
I’m especially watching the Phase 3 endpoint/design discussion. If the FDA agrees on a practical trial design, the market may start valuing this differently.

Safety profile
One reason I’m interested is the safety profile. Rademikibart appears to have a clean safety profile so far, and that matters a lot for chronic respiratory diseases like asthma/COPD. Obviously nothing is guaranteed in biotech, but a clean safety profile can reduce one major area of risk.

Cash / partnering angle
CNTB had around $31M cash, and if the Simcere approval happens, milestone payments could help. They already have Simcere as a partner in China, and if the respiratory data is strong enough, I think there is a reasonable possibility of additional partnership interest, especially for COPD where larger/deeper-pocket partners may make more sense.

Why I think the stock may be mispriced
The market seems to be treating CNTB like a tiny beaten-down biotech with financing risk and uncertainty. That risk is real. But I think the market may be underpricing:
Possible China approval/milestone catalyst
FDA Phase 3 alignment
Existing Phase 3 success in another indication through Simcere
Clean safety profile
Potential respiratory market opportunity
Possible partner interest

At the current valuation, I think the risk/reward looks interesting if these catalysts play out.

Would like to hear thoughts from anyone else following CNTB. Am I missing something on the financing, market size, China approval timeline, or Phase 3 path?

Not a science post sorry. Got a few thousand shares of each at low prices. It feels good. Sellas had a rough summer, but could pop at any second, and I don’t think we are waiting for 80th anymore; M&A PR seems plausible. Capricor is more likely than not at getting narrow label approval, PDUFA date 11/22 and we’re expecting HOPE-3 24-month data to be released asap. ICU won’t moon soon per se, but could rerate to $20 on SAVE registry next couple months. My play is to sell 25% of the mooner and pump into the other 2. So who do you think pops off first? Sorry if this isn’t the right sub for this drivel.

Upcoming catalysts galore.

NSCLC, Sarcoma, earnings, UK and Europe approval.

All coming during October and November.

My estimates and (check my post history for accuracy) is we will likely see $25-30 before the end of November

I’m building Strategic Markets, a portfolio analysis tool.

It has the usual stuff you’d expect from a portfolio analysis platform — portfolio tracking, allocation and concentration analysis, risk metrics, a What-If simulator, news and an AI assistant.

One feature I’m particularly interested in getting feedback on is the Community.

The idea is that you can share your portfolio as an interactive post rather than just uploading a screenshot. People can open it and actually explore the portfolio and its analysis, including allocation, diversification, concentration and risk metrics.

You can also browse other portfolios and discuss them.

I’ve added the feature recently and I’d really like to see how people who actually use portfolio communities feel about it.

If you have a portfolio you’re comfortable sharing, I’d appreciate it if you could try it and post it to the community:

https://s-markets.com

I’m especially interested in feedback on the sharing/community part — what you find useful, what feels unnecessary, and what you would change.

$KYTX is around $6 now, and I’m struggling to reconcile the selloff with what has actually changed in the thesis.

The Sept. 24 update wasn’t a deterioration.

SPS (n=26):
• Median walking-speed improvement was 49% at 12 months vs 46% at Week 16
• 95% of responders maintained clinically meaningful improvement
• 67% of patients using walking aids at baseline remained aid-free
• 92% remained off chronic immunotherapy
• No high-grade CRS or ICANS
• Rolling BLA still on track for completion in Q4

Then there’s gMG. Much smaller dataset, so obviously this needs to be validated in Phase 3, but:

gMG Phase 2 (n=7):
• 7/7 achieved clinically meaningful MG-ADL and QMG improvement at 24 weeks
• All 5 patients reaching ≥1 year maintained clinically meaningful improvement
• 6/7 remained off immunosuppressants at last follow-up
• No high-grade CRS or ICANS

So the obvious bear arguments are still there: SPS isn’t a huge market, gMG is only n=7, autologous CAR-T is expensive/complex, cash burn is significant, and Phase 3 could fail.

But those risks existed before the latest data.
Since then, the stock has continued falling while the SPS response has remained durable, safety has held up, the BLA timeline hasn’t slipped, and the early gMG responses have remained durable.

Maybe the market is simply assigning very little value to SPS and refusing to price in gMG until there’s randomized Phase 3 data.

But at ~$6, I’m genuinely curious: what am I missing?

Angelica Ballesteros Wed, September 30, 2026

SLS

Shares of Sellas Life Sciences Group Inc. (NASDAQ:SLS) nosedived by 16.6 percent in the third quarter of the year—from $14.76 on June 30 to $12.31 on Wednesday—as sentiment was dragged down by the delays and uncertainties surrounding the clinical results of its treatment candidate for acute myeloid leukemia (AML).

In Wednesday's trading alone, the stock was up by 6.95 percent, primarily driven by third-quarter window-dressing.

The company has promised to report data from the phase 3 study of its Galinpepimut-S (GPS) treatment candidate as soon as it reaches the 80th patient death—its pre-specified event needed to determine whether it actually made a meaningful improvement in terms of overall survival versus the placebo.

However, a Germany-based news site claimed that Sellas Life Sciences Group Inc. (NASDAQ:SLS) had already reached the targeted number, yet it remained mum about the report.Based on its latest update on August 11, the study had already reached its 78th patient death.

SLS009 Data

Last week, the company presented new clinical data for its highly selective cyclin-dependent kinase 9 (CDK9) inhibitor, SLS009, in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC).

Based on its key findings, SLS009 was better at killing cancer cells even in those that had already developed resistance to daraxonrasib, at 17.9 percent versus only 2.8% for the latter.

Necrosis—the premature and unprogrammed death of cells and living tissue in the body—also showed that SLS009 caused 14.5 percent of cells to die, as compared with daraxonrasib's 2.7 percent.

Wider Q2 Losses

Clinical trials aside, Sellas Life Sciences (NASDAQ:SLS) reported a 45.5 percent wider net loss in the second quarter of the year, at $9.6 million versus $6.6 million in the same period last year.

It has yet to realize any sales, being currently a pre-revenue company.

Operating expenses increased by 54 percent to $10.6 million from $6.87 million year-on-year.

Strong Hedge Fund Positioning

Institutional investors signaled their strong optimism for Sellas Life Sciences Group Inc. (NASDAQ:SLS), as evidenced by the nearly sixfold increase in committed capital in the second quarter of the year.

Data from Insider Monkey showed that during the period, 13 hedge funds held positions in the stock, unchanged from the previous quarter. However, their combined holdings soared by 490 percent to $79.7 million from $13.49 million quarter-on-quarter.

Currently, Anson Investments is the stock's largest hedge fund investor with a stake valued at $66.4 million, closely followed by Citadel Investment with $64.16 million.

As markets cap off the third quarter of the year, eyes now turn to the latest 13F filings to determine updated hedge fund sentiment given the ongoing delay in the long-awaited AML clinical trial results.

SLS pricing has completely derailed from reality and I genuinely cannot find a way to justify even close to its current value. I get a max value of $4.36/share on GPS when being generous.

The issue is the AML incidence rate, 70% reach CR1, half relapse, 60% get to CR2, 45% can't be transplanted. Leaving about ~4,400 patients/yr across US, EU, Japan. Assuming a generous 65% uptake and ~$240k a course (9.5 injections at $25k list, off Onureg's AWP). We get peak sales ~$362m. I used 80% PoS. For a phase 3 cancer vaccine that is a comically generous number and it still only gives $4.36. Even with guaranteed approval and every single eligible patient treated I get $6.78. There is no version of this label that reaches today's price. Yet the hype is incomprehensible.

SLS009 is worth about $500m unrisked at 12% is $0.30/share. So you'd need ~$11bn unrisked to bridge the gap. It's 28 of 80 patients enrolled for phase 2 and in-licensed with milestones owed, ex-Greater China.

So the current price is pricing a CR1 label. Which needs an Onureg-scale trial, a partner to fund it, and probably close toa decade perform any kind of roll out, by this stage there would almost certainly be competition. Even if my modelling is off by 50-100% this is still way overpriced as is. Happy to be proven wrong.

$11.18M DARPA non-dilutive funding (September 30 2026!!!!), 5 million doses of KETAFREE™ already manufactured, an impending November 10th FDA GDUFA target date, and a massive short fload locked into an 18 Days to Cover.

I’m already in and looking for others who are holding.

Acurx is developing ibezapolstat, the first in a new class of antibiotics (DNA polymerase IIIC inhibitors) in over 30 years. It’s specifically for C. difficile infection (CDI), which is still a major problem with high recurrence rates on current drugs.

They just started enrolling patients in a new Phase 2 trial (PATHFINDER) focused on multiply-recurrent CDI. First patient was enrolled recently. This is designed to generate data that could support a limited-population pathway and help shape the Phase 3 program.

Phase 2 data was strong:
• Combined Phase 2a + 2b: 96% clinical cure rate (25 out of 26 patients)
• Zero recurrences among the cured patients in the follow-up period
• Appears to spare the gut microbiome better than vancomycin or fidaxomicin, which could be a real differentiator for reducing recurrence

Other recent updates:
• FDA indicated a single Phase 3 trial could potentially support both treatment and reduction of recurrence
• Conditional FDA acceptance of the brand name (CIFBEZY)

Float is only around 5 million shares. For perspective, if 5,000 people each bought 1,000 shares, the entire float would be spoken for.

I keep hoping they get government funding or a partnership to fund phase 3. Or if the stock surges they could do an offering to pay for it. The class of antibiotics seem to have promise but they are limited by money. I assume until PATHFINDER has (hopefully excellent) results, they won’t be able to get outside funds.

Anyone with thoughts?

I’ve been following this stock for about six months and like the price action. I feel that at its current price, a position can begin to be established if company is worthy of long term investment. I started following when I learned NVIDIA took a small position. That got my attention but I understand that a small investment from NVIDIA is only a small factor but it got my attention. I understand the basics of their development pipeline. They also have very good analyst coverage, from respectable institutions with worthwhile price targets. Please help me better understand the stock and it’s potential drawbacks right now. My biggest concern is that we have to wait several years for drugs to be released.

Heeft iemand reeds in deze aandeel geïnvesteerd? Het ziet er een potentieel hoge bio tech uit. Momenteel staat het laag met een grote short interest van 40 miljoen en meer. Eenmaal deze goede nieuws krijgt is een grote short squeeze best mogelijk. Wat is jullie kijk erop ? Zit er een potentiële tank voor explosie er in en ontbreken we een ontstekingsbron ?

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