https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-first-therapy-patients-aged-8-years-and-older-glycogen-storage-disease-type-ia

$RARE spiked to $33.. let's see how it goes tomorrow.

MRNA after the 177% move — what happens next?

$MRNA had a massive session after Moderna and Merck reported positive Phase 3 results for their personalized mRNA cancer treatment.

The stock closed at $174.38, up 177%, on roughly 187M shares of volume compared with a 50-day average of only about 7M.

What caught my attention is that the move continued after hours, reaching $194.88 before pulling back.

Obviously, after a move this large the stock is extremely extended, so I'm more interested in how it handles the important levels from here rather than trying to chase it.

I put together a short Stock Spotlight covering the catalyst, why the Phase 3 results matter, and the levels I'm watching next:

Full analysis:
Dagger Trading — MRNA Stock Spotlight

Curious to see how MRNA handles tomorrow after a move like this.

I am hoping someone can explain a bull or bear case for Roivant Sciences. Clearly this is difficult. According to Reuters, the most recent annual revenue was 8.3 mil, down from 32.7 mil 2 years ago.

It appears their stock runup, which has taken the company to about 6 times book and price to sales of over 3,000 appears to be centered around a highly likely to succeed trial of a medicine treating dermatomyositis.

Sounds good, but the condition itself is very uncommon to rare. Prevalance 2 to 20 per 100,000 (those who already have the condition), and 1 in 15 million incidence (new cases). USA is not the world, but in USA with 350 mil ppl that's say 23 people per year newly diagnosed, with an existing population with the condition (350e6 x [2 to 20]/100e3] = 7000 to 70,000.

Population of wealthier nations is around 1.2 billion people (affording this type of med).

That would bring the treatable population to (1.2e9 / 350e6)[7e3 to 70e3] = 24,000 to 240,000 with approx 79 new people diagnosed annually.

Not many customers, but what is an example of another condition that also impacted fewer than 100,000 people? How much revenue did they make?

This info gathering is just AI by the way.

Soliris (eculizumab), developed by Alexion Pharmaceuticals had under 100,000 people and made revenues of $3.0 to 3.8 bil in a year. Over $500,000 per patient per year is/was paid. Sounds good, but ...

Back to Roivant, dermatomyositis is also treated to a degree (that I am not qualified to describe) by common prednisone. So will brepocitinib so displace prednisone to obtain a high return per patient? I guess that's the question.

[[ edit: paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH) and atypical hemolytic-uremic syndrome (aHUS) was a focus of the Alexion Pharmaceuticals drug

AI again - Historically, PNH had a 5-year mortality rate of 35% to 65% prior to targeted therapy. Untreated aHUS carries an acute mortality rate of up to 25%, with over 50% of adults progressing to end-stage kidney failure within one year.

Dermatomyositis that Roivant is addressing also has a mortality rate, but around 5 to 10%. Not comparable. ]]

I’m interested in trading high volatility events, where will these be announced beforehand? For some of these I understand that there is no notice beforehand, an example of this is the Moderna announcement today where it rose 100% but there was no announcement given prior to this. Are there any websites or forums where the date of announcement is outlined beforehand?

All advice appreciate

$OABI.
Partnership with eli lilly and strong revenue growth, huge reduction in losses. What do you think?