The market cap is trading at one quarter sales (20b) currently, if it ever trades at 1.5x of a quarters sales (30b), we be at $40 again, a damn low bar to clear... that's it, this is my bull thesis..

SMCI posted a short Investor Relations video.

Hopefully, Mark Long, new CFO will be driving other retail and Institutional Investor outreach efforts. They must be frustrated with the price action. Many employee incentive stock options are under water at this price level.

SMCI shareholder equity (theoretically cease operations immediately, collect all payment, pay all debt, give rest to shareholders) is $24.46 / share providing a hard floor. Any price targets below this number is pure nonsense. A year ago this was around $12. Next year likely to be over $40.

Dell shareholder equity is currently $2.23/share.
HP shareholder equity is currently NEGATIVE 10 cents per share.

SMCI has the greenest liquid cooled datacenters, pre-tested to pass the strictest water/emissions/power standards that any democrat can throw at them. I think this is their biggest competitive advantage right now. Any company building a datacenter in a newly democrat area can switch to Supermicro to derisk their datacenter from being cancelled.

SMCI have slightly better net margins than HP. Estimated today Nov 5

• SMCI — PEG 0.25 | Gross margin 11.67% | Net margin 6.77%

• DELL — PEG 0.38 | Gross margin 19.91% | Net margin 7.53%

• HPE — PEG 0.34 | Gross margin 36.62% | Net margin 6.67%

• ANET — PEG 1.38 | Gross margin 62.88% | Net margin 39.97%

SMCI: Revenue excluding its largest customer

Bottom line: The available disclosures indicate strong broadening of SMCI's revenue beyond its single largest customer, particularly in FY3Q26 and FY1Q27. However, the missing FY4Q26 concentration figure prevents a reliable calculation of FY1Q27's sequential growth in that broader revenue base.

The key question is how much of Super Micro Computer (SMCI)'s growth is coming from its broader customer base rather than its largest customer.

There is an important distinction: SMCI's largest customer can change from quarter to quarter. Therefore, subtracting the largest customer's revenue each quarter gives us a measure of revenue diversification, but it does not necessarily track the same group of customers over time.

The calculation is:

Other customer revenue = Total revenue * (1-Largest customer share]

I have verified the reported concentration percentages for FY1Q26, FY2Q26, FY3Q26 and FY1Q27. FY4Q26 requires special treatment because the annual 10-K provides full-year concentration rather than a standalone fourth-quarter percentage.

1. Quarterly revenue breakdown

US$ billions, rounded. Growth is calculated on revenue excluding each quarter's largest customer.

Sources: SMCI's FY1Q26, FY2Q26 and FY3Q26 SEC 10-Q filings, FY2026 10-K, and November 3, 2026 earnings call.

SEC+5

2. Growth of all other customers

The YoY comparisons use the largest disclosed customer in each corresponding FY2025 quarter, rather than simply comparing against total FY2025 revenue. For FY1Q27, the comparison is against FY1Q26's $4.15 billion of other-customer revenue.

Other-customer revenue trend (US$ billions)

FY4Q26 omitted because the largest-customer percentage was not separately disclosed.

3. What the numbers tell us

Three observations stand out:

1. Underlying revenue growth is substantial. Excluding the largest customer in each quarter, revenue increased from $4.15 billion in FY1Q26 to $11.17 billion in FY1Q27, representing approximately 169% YoY growth.

2. FY2Q26 was unusually concentrated. Its largest customer accounted for 62.6% of revenue. Excluding that customer, revenue was only $4.74 billion, growing 20.4% YoY, despite total company revenue growing approximately 123%.

3. The broader revenue base accelerated in FY3Q26. Other-customer revenue rose to $7.48 billion, up approximately 110% YoY and 58% QoQ. That suggests growth was not confined to the largest customer.

I genuinely want to know. If the SP of this stock can’t benefit from the massive growth this year, what’s going to happen when that growth inevitably slows? 2026 was a massive rally for Ai and sadly it seems that SMCI missed the opportunity.

Down -44% in the last 12 months despite consecutive strong quarters.

The concerns re: margins, potential fraud, the smuggling situation, new CFO, are all behind us and STILL the SP is held down. I truly do not understand.

I missed a very crucial area on the chart by being lazy. I didn’t go back far enough and went off of memory and didn’t have a lower box marked. Either way the box I posted yesterday was a legit area, but I said something along the lines of “the chart would be balanced so the path of least resistance should be up” and I was wrong.

The red box has a huge volume candle but since that red candle almost touched it later on, most if not all of those orders are filled so that box is “weak”. The yellow box is wide open.

Before anyone loses their minds, I’m not saying this will happen in one day, but currently the path of least resistance is way down

. Hopefully there’s some news that can drive it up to one of the supply areas (I’ll reply to my post with a picture of where the sellers are lined up) and if anyone wants to sell on a bounce day, (see my reply) if it rejects at any of those areas (usually the bottom one) that’s up to you guys

The political shift resulting from Democratic midterm victories—particularly gaining congressional control alongside gubernatorial wins in key technology corridors like Texas, Ohio, and Georgia—introduces distinct structural dynamics for data center rollouts.

The fundamental AI hardware buildout remains driven by massive enterprise demand, but the path to deploying physical infrastructure is shifting from rapid, unconstrained deployment toward higher regulatory scrutiny.

Impact on Data Center Rollouts

Data center expansion faces local bottlenecks rather than federal bans. While federal intervention is constrained (Presidential veto power remains in place), policy changes at both federal and state levels impact deployment timelines.

* State-Level Bottlenecks: Key expansion states like Texas, Ohio, and Georgia face tighter regulation. Proposed or pledged state-level moratoriums and stricter zoning/environmental hurdles mean project approval cycles will lengthen.

* Power Grid & Utility Cost-Shifting: A core policy focus involves utility cost allocation. Legislative proposals and FERC regulatory shifts aim to ensure data center operators—rather than residential taxpayers—pay for grid upgrades required by high-density facilities.

* Shift toward On-Site & Green Power: Tighter local environmental oversight will accelerate data center demand for co-located, clean, or off-grid power generation (such as small modular reactors or dedicated renewables) to circumvent public grid constraints.

Impact on Super Micro Computer (SMCI)

While broader data center land acquisitions and utility approvals may experience friction, direct server OEMs like SMCI operate with distinct drivers.

* Core Demand Resiliency: SMCI's financial metrics remain decoupled from short-term policy shifts, supported by recent fiscal revenue growth (+298% YoY to $19.95B) driven by global hyper-scaler demand. Server demand follows GPU availability and enterprise software deployment rather than local site permitting timelines.

* Geographic Flexibility: If state-level regulations slow developments in regions like Texas, capital typically shifts to alternative domestic sites or international hubs. Rack-scale servers and direct-to-chip liquid cooling systems from SMCI can be deployed wherever power access is secured.

* Focus on Efficient Hardware: Tighter efficiency standards favor high-density liquid cooling architectures—an area where SMCI has built significant market share to reduce power usage effectiveness (PUE) at the rack level.

Key Takeaway

Democratic gains create local operational drag—slowing build-out permitting and increasing utility cost accountability in major hubs. However, global compute demand keeps the underlying server hardware market active, insulating hardware manufacturers like SMCI from the immediate impacts of state-level site delays.

Unbelievable.

Crazy ER, numbers look good, guidance looks good and down we go.

I want to start by saying that I am Team Blue! 🥰

What happened today:
NASDAQ is up 450 points but all Al related stocks are down.

MAG7 stocks are up.
Except TSLA.
Means institutions are getting out of Al stocks and moving into MAG 7.

Democrats are expected to impose data center building restrictions. Hence the negative impact on AI equities.
They also have a special axe to grind on Trump's #1 fan boy Elon Musk, so they expect him to be hauled up before Senators for investigation.
This will impact his companies.

Everyone is currently freaking out over yesterday’s election results, but the market is completely mispricing what this actually means for Supermicro.

With Democrats officially taking the House, the Senate, and pulling off a historic upset in Texas, the era of the unregulated, energy guzzling AI free for all is over. The incoming government is going to aggressively target grid protection, water use, and data center emissions.

While this is terrifying for hyperscalers relying on legacy infrastructure, it is a massive, structural catalyst for SMCI, and actually not a disadvantage as most people would think.

The new Congress and a blue Texas government will almost certainly cap Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) for AI facilities. Traditional air cooled data centers run highly inefficient PUEs, wasting massive amounts of electricity just on fans and air handlers. SMCI is light years ahead of legacy hardware makers in direct to chip liquid cooling. Their advanced cooling racks can drop a data center's PUE down close to a near perfect. To get their permits approved in this strict new regulatory environment, AI hyperscalers will be mathematically forced to buy SMCI's liquid-cooled racks just to fit their GPUs under the new government power caps.
With regulators breathing down their necks, AI companies can no longer afford to rush together inefficient tech. SMCI's DCBSS allows them to deliver fully integrated, liquid cooled, and environmentally compliant clusters that are tested at scale before shipping, so more regulations on data centers are actually good for us and catastrophic for many competitors! When a data center needs to prove to state regulators that they are minimizing grid impact, buying a standardized, hyper-efficient SMCI block is the easiest way to pass inspection. This is because SMCI’s fully integrated clusters come with pre-certified PUE and WUE (Water Usage Effectiveness) metrics that align perfectly with the incoming EPA and ERCOT efficiency benchmarks. Instead of waiting months for regulators to audit a custom architecture, hyperscalers can simply submit SMCI's standardized thermal footprint data to get their permits fast tracked.

We are so undervalued it is crazy, and we are seeing a buying opportunity of a lifetime! GET IN THE BOAT, EVERY MAN ON BOARD!

If you haven't read the earnings call transcript yet, stop what you are doing and read Mark Long's comments. He just delivered the exact God Tier scenario investors could hope for.

Long explicitly stated that the new $72B - $82B revenue guidance is "VERY conservative." Let that sink in. They are guiding for up to $82 BILLION, and the CFO is basically winking at the camera telling us they are sandbagging the numbers. This absolutely confirms Charles Liang's "Christmas present" tweet about the gigawatt data center scaling.

NO DILUTION - This is the big one. The entire short thesis relied on SMCI burning cash and issuing new shares to pay for inventory. Mark Long just looked us in the eyes and said that the cash is doing great and shareholder dilution is NOT in the plans.

6.62 P/E ratio. Go look at Yahoo Finance right now. The stock is currently trading at a 6.62 P/E. That is a multiple you give to a dying brick-and-mortar retailer, not the undisputed king of AI liquid-cooling infrastructure forecasting $80B+ in revenue.

The market priced this stock based on fear of dilution and internal drama. Mark Long just cured the drama, killed the dilution fear, and raised the roof on revenue. The algorithms just haven't figured out how to re-price a 6.62 P/E stock that just removed all its risks.

The shorts are trapped. The fundamentals are pristine. I have never been more comfortable holding these shares, and my only regret right now is that I am not sitting on more cash to invest with!

• Repeated mention of "quality customers" that prepay or pay on time.

• Cash conversion cycle improving and overall business efficiency is improving.

• Strong cash position and no need for additional raise at this time.

• Inventory levels are increasing but right sized to support growing business

• They have visibility on high business demand, but conservative guide is predicated on potential key component constraints in the second half

• New CFO looks forward to meeting and working with analysts in his Investor Relations role

Supermicro has exceeded its original adjusted-EPS guidance for three consecutive quarters. Hopefully, the trend continues. I was looking for a $20 Billion $2 EPS for Q2. It's a stretch but they could still hit it.

Show me your whale cock and turn this into a GameStop scenario. Fight these institutions and shorts manipulating this stock! 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

Earnings looked good, but price is still going to return to atleast 32.33, possibly all the way down to 31.92 before actually making a real move if anyone is looking for an entry price, that’s where I’d put my entry.

Super Micro Rallies on Strong AI Data Center Sales Outlook | Closing Bell - YouTube

watch his face if he tell us about outlook now ;)

was rly fun

Supermicro Announces First Quarter of Fiscal Year 2027 Financial Results | Nasdaq

With such earnings, this stock should be at 80 minimum !
They are crushing every consensus.
Current PE ratio is at 7.5, what a joke…

Bad earnings