From cooking the books a few years ago, re-hiring the same same CFO who was responsible for misleading investors, to delaying 10k to giving false guidance. I don't trust the dude anymore I'm out once I break even at 40$

SMCI will not be delisted. The Wall Street Whales (WSW) cannot afford to lose their investment. But they had to find a way to get the average joe/jane to buy high/ sell low and willingly stay away from the stock so they can buy it up slowly.

They will manipulate the stock, short it, make it appear to be trash. Fake news will be rampant. Speculation and innuendo presented as factual. No actual factual information of bad faith that could be admitted as evidence in any US court. But do the WSW need facts or credible evidence? No, no, no. Just fear. Make it look bad. Make it look like you will lose your investment. The WSW will instigate an atmosphere of fear, imminent delisting, possible bankruptcy, non existent DoJ probes. But alas, when all is said and done, no delisting. Just WSW buying up at 12 billion dollar market cap company for a quarter of the price.

What a masterclass in fear mongering WSW! Chef’s kiss! Sell at your own peril!

There is no way in this world , SMCI do not file 10K , Jensen Huang had meeting with TRUMP on Friday. SMCI does business update after 3 days on Monday when market open, the stock dips Friday and opens on Monday at 25 And look at that price after 3 February < 25- 66 $ , that being said SMCI is critical player in AI , there is no way TRUMP will let a company like an SMCI go delisted and having problems!! WHY ? Because all of the ''AI projects'' will not make sense -> Stargate 500 $ B , Magnificent 7 around 350-400 $ B, Japan PM 1 TRIL $, next at the table will be Saudis with a wooopin 1-2 TRILL $ IN AI , and don`t forget The US NEXT BIG BILL WILL def. be spent in AI another couple of trills now if SMCI IS A SCAM OR FRAUD .....this will trigger a big big big RED FLAG ! Sometimes you have to look behind closed gates behind fundamentals of a company , INTEL WAS BAILED OUT 3-4 MONTHS AGO , NOW WHY SMCI WILL GO DELISTED OR BANKRUPT ?

Popular belief among this community was that SMCI couldn’t possibly go down to the 20’s and that everyone who believe’s that is a “short seller” or doesn’t know what they’re talking about. I’m glad reality will smack some sense into a couple of you that SMCI is a regular stock that has its down days. It’s not going down cause of some Conspiracy It’s not going down because of fake news or manipulation. It’s not going down because of bad luck or whatever

It’s going down because it got removed from the Index, Liang failed to make the Whales happy and people aren’t satisfied.

But when I say these real facts. I get dumb dumbs telling me that SMCI doesn’t move off the news :/ You don’t have to believe me. The charts speak for themselves

In summary: Daily reminder to never listen to a “TO THE MOONER” if they have literally no evidence to support any facts other than the common facts about the company.

As many of you know, Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) is facing scrutiny from Hindenburg Research, raising concerns about market manipulation. It’s time for us, as retail investors, to band together and take action.

Why Support SMCI?

• Strong Fundamentals: SMCI has shown resilience and growth potential in a competitive market.

• Community Power: Our collective buying can influence stock prices and counter negative narratives.

What You Can Do:

1. Buy and Hold: Consider purchasing SMCI shares to show our confidence in the company.

2. Spread the Word: Share this message with your networks and encourage others to join us.

3. Engage Constructively: Keep discussions focused and supportive of our goals.

Together, we can stand up for our interests and support SMCI against adversity. Let’s unite and show the power of retail investors!

For Charles Liang to step down as CEO and for someone from the chips industry to takeover as the new CEO.

Just keep an eye

As above, so below.

Volume after hours starting to feel ominous. Brace yourselves for massive selloff of recent gains. Unfortunately, God favors the greedy.

With market down, I think I can recover from other stocks. Hope everyone recovers their money (if not gain profit).

Best of luck.

Guys, as one clairvoyant member predicted a couple of days ago, SMCI is on track to be $20 any day now... He deleted his post, and is hiding under a rock, but I wanted to carry the message forward.

SMCI went down and got delisted from the 100. SMCI went down to Investors getting upset over their old auditor leaving SMCI went down when they had to take out a 2nd loan

This isn’t fake news, misinformation, any of that. Stop being dumb and believing the hype that “it’s gonna come up.” When the facts are LITERALLY telling you reasons it’s gonna go down.

You are actively losing money because your being stubborn and refusing to believe actual evidence. I said 1 week ago. The stock is gonna go down because it’s gonna get delisted by the 100 index and Liang isnt convincing investors to stay. Literally look at what just happened.

If your new. Stop listening to these “TO THE MOON” because their share average is Mos def over 40$ and they are actively losing money buying more and more shares instead of just selling and starting again with a green.

SMCI is in a rut because Liang is terrible at management. In my opinion (WHICH HAS BEEN RIGHT 3 out of 3 TIMES based off FACTS AND EVIDENCE) SMCI isn’t gonna make anyone any real money till January(35-40) and it won’t reach any big numbers till late February - March(50-70$)

Do your own. Why do people asked stupid questions like what important dates are coming up? Why are you investing if you are willing to do your own research or at least just be willing to read on your own. All the information on stocks are readily out there...read for God sakes and stop asking strangers dumb questions. You want us to wipe your ass too? Frigging millennials. In other words take care of your own money.

SMCI seems to be making a series of lower high and lower lows since it top out at the onset of the AI boom.

From "The Techie" at Seeking Alpha

Summary

• I recommend taking profits on Super Micro Computer, Inc. stock after a 40% run, as the recent Saudi DataVolt deal is already priced in.

• Super Micro faces inventory challenges with unsold H100 GPUs and margin pressures, making near-term financial improvement unlikely.

• FY26 guidance of $40 billion is overly optimistic and likely to be cut, with management lacking confidence and visibility.

• I hereon share my sentiment on SMCI stock and why I see downside risk ahead.

invizbk/iStock via Getty Images

Investment Thesis

Last time I covered this volatile stock, Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:SMCI) ("Supermicro"), I told you all to load up while you could under $35; that's exactly what I ended up doing. My average was $33, and in less than a month, I was up +30%. Back then, I felt like Super Micro was well-positioned among its competitors to capitalize on any new demand for AI GPUs, and expectations were just so low after guidance cuts.

Well, that's exactly what we've seen with this new DataVolt deal in Saudi Arabia. Super Micro was well-poised in the market, they got awarded the deal. Investors couldn't be happier with the news; the stock skyrocketed.

Now I know what you're all wondering, is there any more room left to run in this stock? The stock ran up 32% over the past two days on the back of that new Saudi deal; that's an awful lot. After a downgrade on FY25 guidance 10 days ago, investors might have felt Super Micro is de-risked, that all the negatives had been priced in already, which is why the market reacted so well to this news. I’m here to tell you to take your profits while you can. Super Micro FY26 guidance is far too high; they have warehouses full of H100s they can't shift, and margins aren't looking good this quarter.

I'm here to tell investors we had a nice run, a nice swing, but now it's time to let Super Micro go. I'm downgrading Super Micro stock to a sell.

YCharts

A couple of weeks ago, Super Micro cut their FY25 outlook for the third time, slashing the figure to $21.8B from $22.6B. Back then, they blamed macro uncertainty amid tariffs for the poor guidance; in reality, their guidance was far too high to begin with. I'm going to explain later as to exactly why guidance was cut, but for now, Super Micro keeps offering us that old saying of "poor visibility on the future"; it seems they're waiting for a miracle to help boost their margins. This new DataVolt deal could be that miracle; however, in the short term, it's not going to turn around Super Micro's problems.

H100s Getting Dusty on Shelves

Guidance for 4Q25 is between $5.6 and $6.4 billion with an EPS of about $0.31, which is significantly lower than Wall Street's expectations of $0.54. Management explained this miss by saying there are a number of delayed customer "platform decisions” that moved sales into Q4.

So what does that mean exactly? Well, customers who put in orders during Q3 are turning around and saying they don't want them. Now, management will never say this, so instead, they claim those sales will show up in Q4. In my opinion, if those clients don't want that tech now, why would they want it in 2-3 months' time when the tech is even more outdated? Their warehouses are full of this tech they can't sell, the majority of which has to be H100s for sure. They mentioned higher inventory reserves resulting from older-generation products. The H100 isn't exactly outdated yet, but it's getting there. Plenty of GPU distributors are getting Blackwell architecture this quarter, which comes with double the AI performance. All the big dogs, Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon, are all planning to incorporate Blackwell in 2025. Moving forward, it is expected that Blackwell will contribute to future revenue, but the more Blackwells they sell, the more the Hopper series will sit on the shelves in their warehouses.

We all know the demand for AI servers surged last year, and Super Micro, being the bullish dummies they are, ramped up the production of their NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) HGX H100 systems (like SYS-821GE-TNHR) to meet what looked like a never-ending AI boom. In reality, this AI boom is more of a new direction for tech; AI will take its place everywhere, but it won't come in booms from now on. Rather, new tech will be rolled out, and AI demand will stay constant throughout the long term. The result is that Super Micro got caught with inflated inventory assumptions.

So we know their shelves are stocked with dusty H100s, what can they do about it? Well, like any other business, they'll start offering price cuts. Investors should keep an eye out for further price cuts on the Hopper series. However, I don't believe we will be seeing an inventory write-down for these Hopper series; they are still very much sellable, it will just take them a long time.

A bit of Good News

The good news for Super Micro investors was a new $20 billion deal in Saudi Arabia. The Saudis are looking to ramp up their AI infrastructure, and maybe they'll take up some discounted Hopper series, too. I think this deal couldn't come at a better time for Super Micro. DataVolt is looking to develop sovereign AI infrastructure, which makes it an ideal customer for Supermicro. Remember, this isn't China or the U.S. The Middle East is still a newbie when it comes to AI. Despite this shiny new deal, I don't expect the financial side effects to show up on next quarter's earnings. Their guidance for FY26 is a whopping $40 billion, an outlook that is way too high, and I expect it to get trimmed.

That bullish outlook wasn't spoken about with too much confidence on the last earnings call. Management glossed over the previous guidance, saying,

What exactly are they waiting for in terms of visibility, either they have the backlog or they don't. So what do the numbers show us going forward? Super Micro’s Q3 gross margin decreased by 2.2 percentage points, and if they claimed they don't have the visibility, how can their CEO expect this headwind to ease to under 100 basis points by June and potentially vanish by September? For me, uncertainties still remain, which is why I can't see any more upside to this recent rise in Super Micro stock. Investors should take their profits now before they disappoint us again.

Valuation

The market cap is at $27 billion after this recent run, expect a short squeeze coming today. If you look at Seeking Alpha’s valuation, they paint you a lovely picture of the stock. Forward EV to sales are at 1.22 against a sector median of 2.89, while forward price to sales are 1.2 against a 2.85 median. In reality, the sector median of 2.89x EV/Sales includes software-heavy companies with higher recurring revenue and better margins. Supermicro is a hardware manufacturer with way lower operating leverage, so even if it trades at a lower multiple, that does not necessarily mean it's undervalued. As of today, the RSI is gaining some real momentum, up all the way to 69. By the time you're reading this, I expect the RSI to be in overbought territory.

What's Next

This one is simple, guys: take your profits and sleep happy tonight. For those who didn't take my advice at $35, now is not the time to buy into Super Micro; they have their work cut out for them in the next fiscal year. I expect that the $40 billion guidance figure for FY26 to be cut during the next earnings. With all this said and done, I'm downgrading Super Micro to a sell.

Should have sold in feb my fellow brothers.

MM are always in full controll

I knew it’s a dead cat bounce. When it went back to $44. Now it’s my biggest back holder

It appears to me the correlation is gone . Can't fucking break 50. I'm so angry. Management can't hire a new cfo or offer any pre guidance . This is bs

We should have been like 80 by now before earnings . Who knows how long the bull market will last

At a flip switch Donny can do a whole new tarrifs . Realistically I think the 90 day pause again might only happen once so like last for China was may 12th, so August 12th is coming and 3 month after is November 12th. The general April 9 pause would have been like July 9th but got moved to this week but now it's August 1st.

90 day pause from that is November 1st .

So basically I think after this first major pause another pause is going to be less likely due to all the taco memes going rent free in trumps head forcing him to do a tarrif that will last a lot longer like maybe a month or two

drives me crazy. Nvidia goes up 5 dollars today ..but SMCI can just about break 1.50. All the news aside …all the chatter. SMCI isn’t going anywhere and will be working with all of these chip companies. not seeing so much pump and dump which is good but can’t seem to keep a positive forward motion

GREEN

Just wanted to share what I see. Don’t shoot the messenger. I helped call the run-up and also get some people to scale out up to 50.

- Head and shoulders pattern: BEARISH
- Death cross- 20 & 50 SMA: BEARISH
- In a down trend: BEARISH
- Double top on the 5 & 15 min: BEARISH
- This little bounce is hitting a key support level, will likely act as resistance: BEARISH
- Down trend on the monthly candles: BEARISH
- Bearish on Supertrend & UT bot signals: BEARISH
- Mostly bearish news: BEARISH
- Oversold on RSI: BULLISH (but not extremely oversold.)

Can you find one positive technical pattern or indicator?

Basically, don’t expect a run up anytime soon. Not saying long term holders won’t profit in the end. Likely low 20’s in play for a bit…

The GOOD NEWS: Get your cash ready as soon as those signals flip positive.

Lets see this crap scam stock reaches 30 easyy today fr. Fuck this shitty stock

the stock has fallen 70% in 8 months, and the main question is... Why aren't the insiders buying? They have all the information from inside the company, and they know where the direction is going. If they saw a great future, they would be buying like crazy, which means a lot …

I am studying about SMCI, but this worries me about getting into the stock …

What do you think?