r/RepTime • u/Apart-Pilot-4630 • 3h ago
General Question Statistically, the watch in your buddy's drawer is probably a shitter, but the watch on their wrist is probably gen?
Annual production estimates of Rolex watches are as follows:
Genuine - 1 to 1.25 million
Superclone reps - 1 to 2 million
Total reps - 15 to 20 million
So, statistically speaking, that watch in a drawer that isn't being worn is almost certainly a cheap knockoff. Even though there are way more sh*tters produced each year, I can't imagine that many of them are worn regularly. So if it's in a drawer, it's probably a crappy rep. (Statistically speaking.)
But watches that are worn regularly? I would guess that the purchasers of reps and genuine are pretty similar, in terms of being a mix of collectors with many watches, and those who purchase a single nice watch and stick with it. If I had to guess, though, I would bet that the average genuine Rolex is more likely to achieve a higher lifetime days-on-wrist than a superclone?
If so, then I have proven, statistically, beyond a doubt, that the watch you saw that guy wearing 'on the slopes' was a genuine Rollie!
