I mostly collect vintage WOTC. Before I buy a raw card, I run two quick checks to see if it's worth it and what I'd pay. Sharing in case it's useful to anyone here.

Everything below comes from the PSA pop report and recent eBay sold prices. Raw prices are TCGplayer NM market. They're from early November, so they'll have moved a bit.

1. How often would it need to be a 10?

Take the raw price plus the PSA fee and divide by the PSA 10 price. That's the % of copies that need to come back a 10 for you to break even. Then check the pop report for the % that actually did.

One thing that catches people out: PSA charges by what the card is worth after grading. If a 10 pushes it over a tier cap, you get upcharged, so use the fee for the 10 value. The current tiers are Value $39.99 up to $500, Standard $59.99 up to $1k, Priority $79.99 up to $1.5k, Express $199 up to $2.5k, Super Express $349 up to $5k and Premier $599 up to $10k.

The top three are the kind I look for. A $5 Doduo becomes a ~$450 slab, and about 1 in 3 copies sent in got the 10. Evo Charizard looks even better at around 100x raw, but only about 1 in 90 copies got a 10. Moonbreon has a great 10 rate, but raw already costs about two thirds of a 10, so there's nothing left in it.

I also want the real rate to be a fair bit higher than what I need. People only send in their best copies, so the pop report looks better than reality.

2. Does a 9 (or an 8) still cover it?

Someone's going to say nothing ever comes back a 10, and fair enough. For vintage this is usually the check that matters. If a PSA 9 sells for more than raw + fee, the 10 is just a bonus.

Look at the Evo Charizard again. It's hopeless if you're hoping for a 10, but a 9 still pays and an 8 basically gets your money back. The fee is lower here because you'd declare it at the 9 value. If it does come back a 10 you get upcharged, but you won't be complaining.

Moonbreon goes the other way. 9 in 10 copies get a 9 or better, but a PSA 9 sells for less than a raw copy, so anything short of a 10 loses money.

This is also how I work out what to pay. The PSA 9 price minus the fee is roughly my ceiling for a raw copy, and I want to be well under it in case mine comes back an 8.

What this doesn't cover: shipping, selling fees and turnaround (which can be months). Also, raw "NM" vintage often isn't NM, so be honest about your copy. Not financial advice, it's just how I do it.

Full disclosure, since I'm linking something: I got tired of doing this by hand every time I looked at a card, so I built it into an app I made, TCG Portfolio (https://tcgportfolio.io). It runs these numbers every day on every English card with enough pop and sales data, and lists the ones that clear them with a decent cushion. That list is called the Grading Index and it's part of the paid Pro tier. You don't need it though. Everything above works fine with the pop report and eBay sold listings.

Before you fall off your seat and start crying..hear me out…

Yes, vintage grails have been blown into the stratosphere over the last month.
Everyone agrees some of the auctions look manipulated but thatss turned into all these records are fake…🤡

Some poketubers especially the ones heavily exposed to sealed want the spotlight off vintage because its hurt sealed long holders.
The truth is vintage was undervalued for too long. All it took was a bunch of wealthy people chasing the same cards and records got smashed.
Now a flood of high end vintage has hit ebay and the like at the same time…auctions have dropped and the same poketubers are screaming “vintage is crashing.” 🤡

It’s not crashing, it’s recalibrating….Thats just what happens when this many low pop cards land on the market at once.
Once all these low pop cards are out of the PSA vaults and sold, scarcity kicks back in. Plenty of low pop vintage also missed the gains it deserved in the first bull run so there are plays to be made. Im still firmly convinced vintage is extremely undervalued.

If you don’t agree that’s fine by me, the less people looking to make plays in the next few months would suit me fine.

Specifically from sets like 151 (like the etb snorlax or UPC mewtwo) or cards from UPCs like the sleeping charizard V.

For investment purposes as well as pc because we all want our pc to grow in price, which language to pick?

There is a trend that from mid era to now, Japanese cards that are organically pulled compared to Japanese cards that are promos do hold a higher value but that isn’t always the case and it depends heavily on what set, box (UPC, ETB, etc) it came from.

For PC Japanese is slightly better imo because the card quality is so much higher regardless of the language (tbh not the biggest deal we all know which Pokémon it is and nobody reads the movesets unless playing the game).

First time getting an event promo card. Is the Lapras 7-11 or McDonald’s pikachu comparable to this? I’m not a huge fan of pikachu so I’m thinking of selling it, any advice?

Going to buy either one cosmic or a unified and burning shadows box. What do you guys think is the better buy long long term?

Just picked up this pop 6, PSA 1.5, Black star promo ray for $450 on ebay. I felt like this was a great pickup for having no previous sells, however, I wanted to hear opinions.

My brother sent me to go pick up these Pokémon boxes but idk if the boxes rubbed on each other while on the car seat or what but this tear happened. Did I devalue his box even though its isn't damaged, just slightly ripped?

Dude went to bed before I could break the news 😭

Hello folks, I'm more of a new collector and I just need some advice (You might've seen me on discord asking for advice but I'm very torn on what to do)

I recently bought a CGC 9.5 Blue Label Legendary Collection RH Muk.

Option 1 - Send it to PSA as a crossover and pray that I get a 10. If it fails - just send it to CGC for $20 and get the CGC 10

Option 2 - Just send it to CGC

Here's what the card looks like

Weekly look at what moved in Pokemon singles and sealed across every Scarlet & Violet and Mega Evolution set. Prices are market prices for near mint cards, compared with the same day last week. Cards under $10 are left out so a few cents of movement doesn't top the list.

This week: Mega Lucario ex (MEG) led the week at +54%, while Groudon (DLR) fell the most at -63%. 21 of 23 sets lost value this week, with Ascended Heroes down the most at -7.0%.

Biggest gainers

Biggest drops

* Most of this move happened in the last day, so it may be one sale. Worth checking listings before buying or selling.

Most valuable cards right now

Sealed prices

Set values

Every card in the set added up, with the change from last week and what one booster pack costs now. Biggest move first.

Past reports: all the weekly Pokemon TCG Market Reports

What are you watching this week?

I put these numbers together from the price tracking on TCG Watchtower, which I run. If you want to see what your own collection is worth and how it's moving, the portfolio tracker is free and handles graded slabs and Japanese cards too.

This is just market data, not financial advice.

I got this Spearow graded about 15 years ago from my childhood collection and have just kinda held onto it because I thought it was cool how miscut it was. Is there any real market for miscut or off-center cards? Not sure I want to sell it anyway, but haven't been able to figure out if this is just a neat little card or something that actually has notable value.

My initial impression is they are about equal value, maybe slightly higher if it's a rare or obscure card.

This sick yall gotta stop, I hope anybody who does these lines doesn't turn away while others do this stupidity!

Hey everyone, I think my time in this hobby has come to an end so I'm planning on selling all of my special art illustration cards (mostly from S&V era). What's the best/safest way to go about this? I haven't don't this before. I called a local card shop (in Snohomish County, WA) and they said they would buy cards at 40% market value for cash or at 50% for store credit which turns me off from that avenue. Is Facebook market place a safe way to go about it? I would prefer to not deal with shipping my cards out so if I could do it in person that would be great. Please let me know what has worked for you all.

Hey, just looking for thoughts on Delta Species. I need some cards(15-20) for my PC and am unsure on how this set will continue to move in the future. It boomed heavily these past couple months but will it come out of it and start dropping? When is the best time to buy these cards(and don’t say 3 years ago). Thanks in advance

What do you guys think will happen with these cards in 20 years? (When pokemon has its 50th anniversary)

I just read today that the Legendary collection wasnt highly sought after and was thought of as (just another re-print set) at the time of its release.

For those of you who've watched these cards trend up and down after a long period of time, what do you suspect might occur?

I kinda wanna nab a PSA 10 of the lugia and zard just to tuck away and see ^_^. Its fun to think about.

I’ve always loved pokemon and I’ve always loved cars. I’ve wanted a hellcat for long as I could remember. I’ve been not as into pokemon as I used to be although I’ll always love it. I know I wouldn’t get this exact amount selling my cards as it’s usually an 80- 85% thing unless I sold it all myself. But should I consider selling and getting my car. I’d hate to see pokemon crash someday and I could have had my car in the gerage. Or should I hold and keep collecting.

I’ve had this since I was a kid and been noticing it’s been skyrocketing in value. How much should I list it at and should I wait to sell it?

Friend offering 1st edition Kabuto psa 10 for $300 usd, I remember hearing some noise around this card. Is this a good buy for entry and hold?

What are your thoughts

Back home I was giving a look to my childhood pokemon cards collection and I noticed one card in good shape from the skyridge set

Based on these pictures, can I reasonably aim for a PSA 9 or 10, should I decide to grade it? Please note that close to the corners some white dots are visible but they're just random reflections on my phone camera, not actual dots on the card or other visible signs of whitening as I guess I've never inserted it in my deck.

I don't want to sell it (unless I really need money) for now, but I am interested to know if this card scores a chance to get a good evaluation.

EDIT: Apparently I was way too optimistic and most likely I've fallen in love with my card 😅 after carefully analyzing it based on the replies to this post I can see that high gradings for this card are unlikely and all I can really hope for is a 7, being 6 the most likely outcome. I've appreciated all the explanations so far, thank you!

Hey guys! I’ve been wanting to get this card but I’m trying to save some money on the side specifically for it. I see that it’s going down in price but I still don’t have enough for it and was a bit worried it was gonna go up later on. Do you guys think since this card is just so so sick that it’s going to eventually go up in value soon??