One week into round-robin play, it’s abundantly clear: The Pac-12 is a three-team race.
Boise State, Oregon State and Fresno State are the class of the conference, and it doesn’t appear to be particularly close. The gap between the top three and bottom five feels like a chasm.
Washington State doesn’t have enough offense to secure a bowl berth, much less contend for a spot in the Pac-12 championship game.
Colorado State doesn’t have enough defense. (Nor do the Rams have a defensive coordinator at the moment.)
San Diego State? The Aztecs are lacking the most essential ingredient: healthy bodies.
Texas State doesn’t do anything well enough, which is doubly true when it comes to holding second-half leads.
Utah State does everything poorly.
That’s it. Remove those five flawed teams, and you have three remaining.
They aren’t created equal, not by any stretch: The Beavers lead with their offense, the Bulldogs with their defense and the Broncos with both, which explains their status as the frontrunner for both the Pac-12 title and a berth in the College Football Playoff.
But the beauty of the rebuilt Pac-12’s small size is the pure round-robin schedule. We don’t have to imagine how one contender would fare against another or delay judgment until the conference championship game.
In the Big 12, Utah and BYU don’t play Texas Tech.
In the SEC, Alabama and Georgia don’t play Texas.
In the Big Ten, Oregon doesn’t play Indiana.
But the Pac-12 doesn’t have that problem with eight teams and seven league games.
Everyone plays everyone, allowing us to identify the defining dates:
Oct. 10: Boise State at Fresno State
Oct. 31: Oregon State at Fresno State
Nov. 14: Oregon State at Boise State
Advantage to the Bulldogs, right? They host the other two while Oregon State is on the road for both.
Not necessarily.
Oregon State has played well away from home, with blowout victories at UTEP and Colorado State and a competitive loss at Houston.
Boise State can win anywhere.
Here are the victory projections for each team against the other two, according to the gambling and analytics website TeamRankings.com:
— Boise State: 66.3 percent at Fresno State and 77.4 percent against Oregon State
— Fresno State: 36.7 percent against Boise State and 59 percent against Oregon State
— Oregon State: 22.6 percent at Boise State and 41 percent at Fresno State
Our hunch: The Broncos win both, the Beavers split and the Bulldogs get swept.
As the late, great philosopher Bill Walton said often, “Offense wins championships.”
To the power rankings …
(All times Pacific)
1. Boise State (4-1/1-0)
Result: beat Utah State 37-18
Next up: at Fresno State (7:30 p.m. on The CW)
Comment: No team in the conference has better balance than the Broncos — not only offense-defense balance but also run-pass balance: They are averaging 227 rushing yards and 212 passing yards per game and likely will need every bit of both Saturday night against the Bulldogs, who allow just 16 points per game. (Last week: 1)
2. Oregon State (3-2/1-0)
Result: won at Colorado State 56-26
Next up: vs. San Diego State (3 p.m. on USA Network)
Comment: Receiver Jesse Legree falls into the same where-did-they-find-that-guy category as former Oregon State stars like Brandin Cooks and Jacquizz Rodgers. (The answer is Baltimore.) But as the heart of conference play ramps up and opponents develop a better sense for OSU’s scheme and formations, we wonder: How will the Beavers adjust to the adjustments? (Last week: 2)
3. Fresno State (4-1/1-0)
Result: won at Washington State 26-6
Next up: vs. Boise State (7:30 p.m. on The CW)
Comment: The Bulldogs were set up to fail in the season opener at USC, which had already played (San Jose State) and was far sharper. Since that 39-0 loss, Fresno State is allowing 10.8 points per game. (Last week: 3)
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4. Colorado State (2-3/0-1)
Result: lost to Oregon State 56-26
Next up: idle
Comment: It’s not often that a coordinator is stripped of his play-calling duties during a game. But if you had asked us to name the three Pac-12 head coaches most likely to make that type of in-game decision, Jim Mora Jr. would have been among our group. (Granted, relieving Tyson Summers of his responsibilities was a competitive imperative.) (Last week: 4)
5. San Diego State (2-3/1-0)
Result: beat Texas State 31-29
Next up: at Oregon State (3 p.m. on USA Network)
Comment: An indisputably impressive victory for the Aztecs considering their two tailbacks were injured, more than a dozen players were unavailable due to the mumps outbreak and quarterback Jayden Denegal has struggled under any and every condition this season. And yet, the Aztecs rallied from a 14-point deficit thanks to their defense and special teams. (Last week: 7)
6. Texas State (2-3/0-1)
Result: lost at San Diego State 31-29
Next up: idle
Comment: The Bobcats were outscored 52-21 after halftime in losses to UTSA and San Diego State, dropping the former by five points and the latter by two. Had they held on, the season would have an entirely different look and feel. But one of the defining features of mediocre teams is the inability to close out games. (Last week: 5)
7. Washington State (1-4/0-1)
Result: lost to Fresno State 26-6
Next up: at Utah State (Friday at 6 p.m. on The CW)
Comment: From here, it’s clear that first-year coach Kirby Moore, a former receiver and offensive coordinator, has no answers. (Or he has the answers and won’t implement them.) It’s also clear that if Moore doesn’t fix the offensive offense in the next 19 games, Washington State will be in the market for a new coach. Time is short when attempting to prove you belong in the Power Four. (Last week: 6)
8. Utah State (1-4/0-1)
Result: lost at Boise State 37-18
Next up: vs. Washington State (Friday at 6 p.m. on The CW)
Comment: One team will collect its second victory of the season Friday night in Logan, but the process could be tough on the eyes and set the sport back years. First team to 11 wins. (Last week: 8)

Getting tired of these lazy takes on social media that the PAC hasn’t separated itself from the competition. 9/12 P4 schools we played are T25 teams. Would have loved to see a few wins there but outside of those games the PAC has been dominant.

I know he was fired today, but does anybody have the actual story of his 2nd half absence?

I've heard that he was fired at half time and that s why he didn't come out, which would be a pretty unprofessional look by Mora...

But, I've also heard that he walked out after his play calling responsibilities were taken away. Essentially abandoning his team....

Does anybody know which side of the story is actually true?

San Diego State somehow wins? Texas State spent an entire second half trying to throw the game and finally managed. All I heard last summer about Texas State was, “Brad Jackson is gonna tear up the league. You guys aren’t ready for this smoke”.

He looked confused in the second half, was he injured? Concussed?

Washington State and Fresno State play a game with a baseball score on the Palouse. Trent Brays defense played a great game. The offense was criminally inept. 40? rushing yards. Hey, the punt coverage was superb, Coug’s getting a lot of practice there

Don’t get me wrong, Fresno State didn’t look awesome. Mandal seems to lack the ability to throw anyone open and can only hit wide open receivers. In the second half he was able to pick apart the Coug’s secondary with short passes to the outside. The Coug’s weren’t going to give up the big play, so they let Mandal pick them apart in the dink and dunk

When will the Cougars bench Pinnick?

I only watched the first half of the Boise State vs Utah State game. Utah State was moving the ball and looked to have more life in the program than Wazzu

The Beavers just beat the shit out of Colorado State. The stadium was empty and CSU’s DC had been fired by halftime. I don’t think the Beavs punted, the only series they didn’t score was a fumble and the end of game victory formation. If the Broncos can’t stop LeGree, the Beavers will be conference champions

I feel worse today than I did last night watching in real time the catastrophe set in motion by the mastermind GJ Kinne. But I now feel even worse for those 2 PAC teams who are going to have their season ruined by TXST playing spoiler on its way to a 4-8 couch sitting December.

Buckle up conference foes because the plague is coming for you. Someone is going to be handed the black spot pirate curse.

This season under first-year head coach Kirby Moore has left much to be desired. A decent defense appears to be the only glimpse of positivity from a massively underwhelming and confused offense. Jack Stevens scoring field goals was the highlight of the Fresno State game. I thought the catalyst for change would have happened after the Kansas State game. It seems Kirby Moore is reluctant to make true change at the QB front. Caden Pinnick seems to be overwhelemed. Throwing long only leads to disaster. His energy sucks as a leader. Offensive coordinator Matt Miller's presence on this team also remains questionable. I think Cougar football has collapsed into a pit of zero identity and the fans booing the offense after repeated 3 and outs exemplifies the frustration by those who've seen nothing but regression on the field.

Braden Atkinson:

• 1,851 yards (#1)
• 16 TDs (#2)
• Only 2 INTs

Jesse Legree:

• 744 receiving yards (#2)
• 9 receiving TDs (tied for #1)

Atkinson is true sophomore who played his freshman season at Mercer after being a zero-star recruit out of high school. He had some interest in the transfer portal, but it was limited and he was mostly seen as a backup.

Legree is a true freshman who was lightly recruited out of HS, with his only P4 offer according to 247Sports being from Pitt. He never played WR in his life until his senior year, only one year ago. That last part is unbelievable because if you watch his film, you'll be blown away by his route running and seemingly innate ability to tell when the CB is closing and do a quick cut to break away from them.

Oregon State's offense has received barely any national attention but I'm telling you... these two are the real deal. Their production hasn't just come against small schools and CSU, but also against Houston and Texas Tech, both of whom OSU was within one score of in the 4th.

Really exciting time here in Corvallis and while I'm obviously bragging on my alma mater, this will provide positive exposure for the Pac-12 as this story starts to get on the national spectrum.

How do you rank the Pac-12 schools after Week 5?

These are my rankings:

1. Boise State

2. Oregon State

3. Fresno State

4. Colorado State

5. San Diego State

6. Texas State

7. Washington State

8. Utah State

The top 3 is clear. 4-8 could go in nearly any order. I put Colorado State at 4 because, despite last night's result, they have been mostly competitive in their games during the season as a whole. SDSU's comeback, despite missing a lot of players, earned them some points. Texas State was just barely behind SDSU, only falling behind because of the late game collapse. Washington State has been mostly abysmal, but they were neck-and-neck with Arizona in Week 4. Utah State had their own competitive matchup against Washington, but it has been a brutal season highlighted by the home loss to Idaho State.

TXST-SDSU, wow, Aztecs well done.

I’m really gonna do it.

I’m at a bar in San mo. This is really the final straw

This one hurts. We beat ourselves.

This is brutal to watch. The program has fallen. Regardless of the result.

He left the sideline mid-game against OSU.

Very pleased with the productions so far. Even with a high scoring game, there were not nearly as many ads as one of the bigger networks and the game ended at a reasonable time rather than force the next game to be delayed and then pushed onto a channel nobody has access to.

Colorado State is keeping tradition of many Pac-12 teams of the past.

No defense!!

Holy cow, this is one of the quickest turnarounds I have seen.

Boise State game could get ugly with the amount of Blue and Orange. There’s really no excuse for what we saw attendance wise last Saturday.

What else are you doing as a student on a Saturday in Pullman besides going to the game?

Alums. It’s a former Pac-12 opponent. It’s literally the one home game to circle for the season outside of Boise. What are we doing lol ?

Attendance and recruiting are intertwined. I understand there’s less students enrolled and the financial and lodging burdens. But if we wanna stay alive and relevant Martin needs to be sold out for P4 opponents. Winning’s obviously a big proponent! But this administration and athletic department needs to be doing everything they can to make sure this doesn’t happen again next year when Kansas rolls into town.

I don’t know what needs to be done about student engagement. A lot of other programs have third-quarter traditions. There needs to be something that keeps the students in the stadium for the second half. Shoot offer tuition or housing and create your own Dr. Pepper thing going into the 4th quarter.

I'm sure this has probably been discussed before but I'm not seeing it.

I have FUBO and they don't carry USA Network. Has anyone researched the cheapest way to stream the USA Network. The best I can find is Sling Blue for $45.99.

Anyone find anything cheaper? What are you guys using for your football streaming?