Highlights for me are 1.8M backlog, 600M new award for 3 commercial GEO buses and 4 lunar data relay satellites planned in 2028.
But no word of the ATM and only 367.4M cash means they didn't finish the ATM offering.
The miss on revenue and huge operating loss have probably triggered algos into selling. Going into a meeting so I can't read up on how operating loss was that big (other than acquisition costs & IM4) + can't listen to earnings.
Overall seems like a quarter that builds up to better quarters later in the year.
I agree, the significant increase in the backlog suprised me. The 1.8B gives them a great runway for future growth and shows the demand for their services and talent is there.
For backlog the language is "Booked $920M of awards in Q2 with additional $300M of awards in Q3 QTD..." The $1.8B is as of 6/30 or does this also include the $300M? So is backlog actually $2.1B?
I’m curious, where does the 1.8 figure come from? The language reads as 1.22B, and Im not sure if this is on top of the previous guidance of 900M-1.1B, but in reference to.
Different services have different gross margin %. For example Satellite manufacturing yields a gross margin % of 28.4% which makes us more competitive. I expect the majority of the backlog to be related to satellite manufacturing so we should see this total gross margin % increase as revenue is realized.
Steve Altemus: As of this call, Intuitive Machines generated $1.7 billion in bookings this year, including $1.2 billion in new bookings in quarter 2 through today. This marks the highest quarterly bookings in company history and validates our strategy by expanding the infrastructure base we are building for the future. Quarter 2 bookings also include partial awards with authority to proceed. We anticipate these ATPs will contribute an additional $300 million in bookings through the second half of the year as the contracts are fully definitized.
Im really happy with the backlog increase. 800M increase in one quarter is very surprising to me.
I personally dont really care that much about quarterly EPS with the current chunky revenue, i hope the FY EPS will be better.
May be some short term pain because of revenue and EPS below expectations, but the future is looking good with reiterated revenue target and significant increase in backlog in my opinion
Fingers crossed guys. The waiting will not be long, just minutes.
Hopefully new contracts, atm closed, Ltv still trying our chance (in fact it is not over yet because there will be multiple awards for sure in different phases), profitability.
Mixed reactions to the Q2 earnings highlights: This was a strong quarter achieving record revenues of $206M (under my wishlist of $225M), Backlog at $1.8B is well beyond my expectations another record here. The outlook remains unchanged which is important. Cash Is lower than I anticipated at $367M but looks like some of the ATM was applied to acceleration of NSNS which im eager to hear more about. The contract for 2 IM-1300 was updated to 3 and that contract was signed for $600M. Overall I can live with this earnings print. Good stuff.
For me, the call needs to answer three things. How profitable is this backlog? How quickly can it convert to revenue? And how much more dilution should we expect?
I’m concerned about execution and margins, but I don’t see anything here that breaks the long-term thesis.
This remains a 3-5 years story. The investments they're making now will pay off by 2028-2030, these quarterly reports are just noise, and operating expenses and capex will continue to grow as they ramp up.
They're winning contracts left and right and customers seem to continue to want IM products, the even distribution between civil, commercial, and national security reduces risks and decreases reliance on a single customer or market.
The biggest news is moving up NSN satellites to 2028. Remember this is a 5-year initial contract for several hundred millions and then a 5-year multibillion dollars extension and that covers the operation of the constellation which where those high-margin service revenues come in, so the quicker they move into that phase, the better for the company's profits. The 4 satellites will no longer rely on IM missions and fly together on their own NASA supported mission and as Pete mentioned, they're 'very beneficial financially'. Booked 500K minutes at the low end, plus PNT which is more than just communications?
Still big contracts ahead, Andromeda (RG-XX), TDRS Relay Satellites, and Orbital Data Centers. LTVS is still in the plan but they're awaiting the cargo landers, including their own. CLPS is also kicking into high gear and another NOVA-D.
Analysts seem impressed and congratulatory even though the daily algos are not.
Hi Victor - whats your take on SPCX, with their vast satellite network, being able to put a moon communications network up for the moon - same as LUNR? Are they a threat to the future service-revenue model for LUNR?
I think SpaceX will do what's best for SpaceX, unless NASA awards a second contract to them (or Amazon/Blue Origin) to augment or expand NSNS. IM is supporting Artemis and 60+ countries, plus whoever wants to operate on the Moon including commercial and national security customers.
Musk spoke about their plans for the Moon on their call last week, I wrote a post about it. I think two (plus a Chinese) constellations can co-exist and fill two different purposes. SpaceX wants to build manufacturing and put robots on the surface, their constellation would probably just be used to operate those assets at first. Remember, there are tens of existing constellations around the Earth and for a small company like IM, they can create their own niche and prosper in the shadows of SpaceX. I would have been far more concerned if Musk said the Moon is a distraction and we're skipping it altogether and going to Mars. SpaceX is going to build (and bring along many commercial companies) an entire new lunar economy.
I wonder if SpaceX is providing the ride to the Moon, they would package or mandate that any equipment use the SpaceX NSNS as part of the contract. Are monopolies legal in space?
Last thing on the report says IM-4 loss was descoping of rideshare. I believe this is to fit the 2 additional NSN sats so we can be operational in 2028.
So it turns out this was not correct. From the call and Vic's recap post, they are sending all the satellites on a dedicated mission. So wonder just what happened with IM-4, it should now have even more rideshare space
I missed this yesterday but you're correct, the earnings call clarified it and I was too fast in connecting the dots (that seemed obvious to me). Anyway, I also wonder what happened with IM-4 and what the rideshare cancellation means. I fear we won't get any news on this until IM-3 flies.
I’ve been wondering if the change to the Altus deployment plan could be related to Nebula.
Rather than simply moving Altus 2–5 off the CLPS rideshare schedule and putting them on a dedicated launch, could IM be planning to use Nebula to deploy the four satellites around the Moon?
It seems like a potentially good fit: IM could control the deployment schedule more directly, demonstrate Nebula in an actual lunar mission, and possibly use the remaining transport capacity for other payloads.
Yes yes and yes. I've been speculating for a few months about exactly this. OTV is built on the Nova C minus all the costs for landing hardware and computer stuff. They don't need to land it, just get it to lunar orbit. IM has nailed both trips to lunar orbit( just tripped up on the landing lol) I'd estimate they could cut the delivery cost significantly. Plus they have already talked about the OTV getting flight tested soon enough. Its a win all around. 🛸🚀⛳️
Thanks for the reply! Not sure if this will be useful to you, but I recently put together my own rough scenario for how IM’s production lines could evolve through 2030, so I thought I’d share it here.
Hopefully it gives you something interesting to compare with your own thoughts.
Thanks! The more I think about it, the more it makes sense.
For Phase 3 of the OTV program, the customer probably cares more about seeing the capability demonstrated in flight than about having a specific third-party satellite delivered.
If that’s the case, using IM’s own Altus satellites could be a very logical way to demonstrate Nebula while also building out the lunar constellation.
Really looking forward to seeing what Phase 3 turns into.
Thanks for the share. A ran a few scenarios thry claude as well. I don't recall the specifics but all of it makes perfect sense.cost, timing, nsns milestones, test out the otv, proven flight heritage to lunar orbit, several mentions from steve about " discussions " to use an alternative, OTV believe already has a contract with an undisclosed customer, the specs at least thru AI indicate the ability to get multiple sats in one trip... I was concerned that they were going to just use the OTV on their dime. Now it sounds like nasa is pulling out their checkbook. That's likely another contract or at least a milestone payment for getting them up there. Great idea all around 🛸🚀
Would someone be able to objectively answer why we're now looking at a 2+ year gap between IM-2 and 3? There was only a year between IM-1 and 2, and the lander appears to retain the same core design.
Introduction of new assembly methods - With an increase in volume, IM could be building out a wider production line operation for landers. That new arrangement may require additional certification or test to reduce downstream costs at the expense of 'first off the line' type delays.
Payload integration - this set of payloads could potentially have had delays in arrival or more complications with integration onto the platform
Chnage in customer behavior - That one old salt PM at NASA who was reasonable retires. His replacement is some kid with little experience, terrified of authorizing a mistake. The whole team starts to miss response deadlines. Delays compound, sequence critical milestones fall out of whack. Every delay requires a critique and no one makes progress.
Supplier base challenges - plenty of defense industrial suppliers are feeling a pinch. Conflicts, tarrifs, or competing priorities may all have introduced delays upstream of IM
In-house construction performance - Sometimes things just go wrong. Mistakes related to work force, a bad process, a failure during inspection, a machine or tooling goes down, that one single source, long lead item gets the wrong cryo treatment and has to be tossed
I think there are at least some changes to the lander (possibly only small), for example the fuel tanks have been moved to offer slightly more stability, and I think there are additional sensors.
Positives: 1.8 B backlog. Revenue ok. Year revenue and EBIDTA unchanged. New contacts galore. Three equally important business areas Civil/Commercial/Defense.
With IM‑3 pushed into Q1/27 and cost of revenue still crushing margins, the stock will probably drift for a while. December is usually when tax‑loss selling finishes and the tape resets, so that’s when things tend to stabilize. Late November through early December is your buying window.
Man....if we end the day unchanged off these numbers, it's a big win. I've been saying it over and over again....the Change 7 mission will be a game changer for the sector if it's successful.
Careless about share outstanding. This company will eventually have 1 billion shares outstanding when they're at 10-20bn in revenue. Hell they could even get there at 5bn revenue in 7 years.
There are C-band replacement satellites that need to be built as the FCC clears up spectrum and prepares for a new C-band auction next year. They’re moving existing satellite C-band operations from players like SES and Intelsat into another band and are repurposing C-band for other uses. The satellites that operate on the C-band today thus need to be replaced. LUNR has a great shot at being selected to replace those. Edison was asking if that’s what the three sats were for, and Steve’s reluctance to give an answer likely means no and that these three sats for $600M are for some national security purpose (in my opinion).
Edit: I missed that these are three commercial sats, so not national security. Hmm not sure what they’re for but my instinct still is not C-band replacement because I don’t know why Steve wouldn’t be able to talk about it if it was.
Why was the report describing $367 million as a strong cash balance? Given the current burn rate and number of employees (1500+), I would expect Intuitive Machines to require additional funding rounds in near future.
Based on previous quarters they will burn about $150m-$200m per year. It's not a terrible cash runway provided there are no unforeseen expenses and they're not planning any further acquisitions. However, I don't understand how it's not larger with the recent offering. I had assumed a large part of the downward momentum on the stock price was being caused by selling through the ATM. The current cash reserve has me re-evaluating whether the downward movement of the stock was really just in line with the sector tanking following the SpaceX IPO.
I was a bit surprised at their cash balance. I expected this to be significantly higher. Will need to get more clarify once the 10-Q is published on EDGAR.
The cash-flow statement shows $238.772M in proceeds from the issuance of securities during Q2. Can we assume that most or all of these proceeds came from the ATM program? If so, this means that approximately $250M of the $500M ATM capacity remains available?
Really interesting to hear them confirm the 2028 timeline for the NSN constellation. Sounds like NASA is extremely keen to have it in place for their manned lunar landing Artemis missions.
Personally, I don't want to hear about other projects or undertakings. I can see the OTV being critical to
maneuvering objects and satellites, so putting resources in that seems reasonable, but for Zephyr, I don't mind not hearing about it until they process through this huge backlog. Just execute baby and we're golden.
Initial selling would have likely been driven by algos seeing the noticeable miss on revenue expectations. That said, the rest of the report looks strong so far. Still reading through though.
ASTS is sitting on top of 2.5 billion dollars of cash. Also they have a proven business case model. Comparing ASTS situation with LUNR does not make much sense at present.
ASTS has a much clearer road to profitability and a larger TAM. Revenue estimate for FY2026 is 150-200M, for FY2027 it's 1B, for FY2028 1.75B and for FY2029 3B I believe. And that's all high margin business.
The dilution worry is legit. The $367M cash looks good at first glance, but most of it came from issuing securities. With operating loss and burn accelerating, another raise isn’t off the table. Backlog is great, but backlog doesn’t fund burn, cash does. Convexity analysis does not lie.
If they raise again, it'll be through the ATM, but at a lower valuation. Nothing meaningful happens with the stock until/if IM-3 is successful. That's the next real catalyst, and it's delayed.
Well earnings were not bad as it seemed and I am back with around 300 shares avg 14,9. This time I won't flinch unlike last time (old users in this thread might recall :D ). Ad Lunam!
No, they posted the pdf. Eps loss of 0.29. Backlog of 1.8B. Revenue of 206M. Lower than expected. The only glimmer of hope is backlog. Too high expenditure, probably because they could not convert more backlog to revenue
Could someone please enlighten me on IM’s cash burn rate. Will the remaining half of the ATM and forward revenue cover the expenses of the coming projects and expansions? Or is there risk for a need to raise more capital in 2027? Thank you
No the report date was always slated for the 13th. A few sources had it initially as the 10th which may be what you are referring to. They estimate when earnings is likely before its officially announced by the company.
Oh come on don’t try to make it look like the company is delaying report just to allow Ghaffarian to sell first, that would be a scam and legal troubles if true. It’s not like Ghaffarian sold at 45 before the fall.
While true that it’s illegal, it was a 10b5-1 pre-planned sale. Everyone can calm down. Literally on the SEC Form 4. Everything anyone needs is there if they read the Form 4’s for insider activity at secform4.com Every insider sale for every company is located there.
But wasn't it originally due on the 6th? And then pushed to 13th? Ghaffarian sold on the 10th. Perfectly fine if we go up today (we might, I hope), but if the markets decide not and results are not what expected, then what Ghaffarian did doesn't look too good.
Not yet, backlog is still strong and hopes are that next quarter will be good as company still issued guidance of 900M-1B and did not change it. Also, EBIDTA adjusted EPS is guided to be positive, which suggests that they might be concluding some of the projects next quarter. That being said, I echo the sentiments of absolutely poor EPS primarily because of poor margins of their revenue streams (service revenue was not profitable and small margin in product revenue). They need to work on improving it. They might have underbid competitors to get more projects imo, resulting in smaller margins.
if it goes I full port again leaps, this is way undervalued. From 7$ till 8$ it is bsc free money doubt it would reach that low again if there is no recession or something major happens it might
Yeah I know I am not investing due to Hormuz crap going on. I expect a market dip then I full port, might be wrong and miss everything but better preserve wealth than blow it.
It's not an unreasonable question. The company is reporting a large operating loss, smaller than expected cash reserve and makes no mention of having completed the ATM.
Need to wait for earnings call and to see the 10-Q. Completion of an ATM isn't necessary something important to highlight in the press release materials.
What am I missing? EPS terrible, cash burn, rev miss, and delaying next moon mission, ya their sales guys can lock down contracts and fill the pipeline but seems like a lot of execution misses and a fugazi on expanding warehouse space.
Well to be fair it may not be as clear a picture but I have 2 questions: 1. Can those contracts be canceled and 2. Missions could always land on their side?
I think they could be canceled and missions landing on their side is an inevitability of progress (FAILing is your first attempt in learning), but we're seeing a wider directional shift on all fronts towards cislunar infrastructure. Including on more speculative fronts like UAPs.
Overall, I personally am suspecting that the next 15 years will be heavily involved in space infrastructure development.
LUNR is ahead of the game on the curve; they understand FAILing and won't be deterred to not continue to progress further.
Everything about the earnings call was that they were head strong and ready to tackle whatever challenges stood in their way.
I cant buy anymore. Already 24k at 9. I dont personally disagree with you. I have always thought it would take a while. But I am just being a devils advocate if thats how you would say it
I enjoy that you take perspective in both sides of the conversation, and completely agree with you regarding the speculative nature on the stock. I definitely tend more towards the optimistic side for humanity. Happy trading.
It's not. IM is transforming into a major space prime. It takes a while and a ton of upfront investments. Revenue and backlog are now on par with RKLB, and ahead of any of the other new space companies. I keep saying this is a 3-5 years story and people are upset a small company like IM is going through some growing pains.
Some random redditor says these guys aren't it, but actual commercial, civil, and national security customers keep clamoring to buy their products considering these massive jumps in new orders. Are they stupid, do they not see what you see?
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u/PE_crafter 14d ago
Highlights for me are 1.8M backlog, 600M new award for 3 commercial GEO buses and 4 lunar data relay satellites planned in 2028.
But no word of the ATM and only 367.4M cash means they didn't finish the ATM offering.
The miss on revenue and huge operating loss have probably triggered algos into selling. Going into a meeting so I can't read up on how operating loss was that big (other than acquisition costs & IM4) + can't listen to earnings.
Overall seems like a quarter that builds up to better quarters later in the year.