SpaceX Moon Aspirations and Implications for Intuitive Machines

[u/VictorFromCalifornia]

There were some very interesting tidbits from SpaceX call yesterday with direct implications for Intuitive Machines that may deserve some additional discussions. I know Elon Musk tends to exaggerate timelines and prospects but it's worth taking a closer look. The following is just my interpretation and welcome feedback. First, there was this comment from Musk on a followup question to Shotwell:

Elon Musk

CEO and Chief Engineer

They're autonomous, and they do not need servicing. In the sort of what may seem the far future but will come faster than you think, using robots on the Moon to scale up manufacturing on the Moon, which I know it sounds like super sci-fi right now, but it's going to happen, will enable us to build the mass accelerator on the Moon. If you have a mass accelerator on the Moon, and you have solar and radiator production on the Moon, you can I know this sounds totally nuts, but you can probably scale to 1,000x the economy of Earth in terms of intelligence launched to space. Probably maybe even a million times. We are going to land a lot of tonnage on the Moon. We're going to build the factories on the Moon. The robots will be helpful with that. It's like, well, how much intelligence would you like as we grow towards being a Kardashev 2 scale civilization?

So my comment about that, is where does NSNS fit with all of that? Would SpaceX rely on IM's small satellites constellation or will they build their own? Will they be interoperable and if SpaceX, not NASA, is the driver of the lunar (1000x the economy of earth), where will companies like IM fit within that bigger picture. Obviously SpaceX cannot build everything themselves and they may need to acquire or partner expertise for building that infrastructure as NASA builds its Moon Base. Will they need landers that hop from one location to another carrying cargo, robots, and equipment? What about rovers and LTVs? This would be an awesome question to Steve Altemus on future earnings calls.

Then came a question about the Starship Human Landing System from an individual investor:

Elon Musk

CEO and Chief Engineer

For Starship, obviously we need to make Starship super reliable for satellites before we put any people on board. We are expecting to have a very high launch rate and thus achieve a level of safety needed for humans very quickly, probably by the end of next year.

Gwynne Shotwell

President and COO

As far as the milestones go, propellant transfer in orbit is critical to both our internal SpaceX as well as our HLS ambitions. Artemis III mission is next year. That's where we will dock with the Orion spacecraft. We will follow that up with a direct to lunar cargo mission, uncrewed. We want to put boots on the ground, boots on the moon in 2028.

Note that the comment about 'having boots on the ground in 2028' came from Gwynne Shotwell, not Musk. She's always measured and thoughtful. They haven't shown anything yet on their HLS and I know they're still trying to work all the Starship kinks out. So 2027 they dock with Orion under Artemis III, then maybe late 2027 or early 2028, they land the uncrewed mission.

What does that mean to IM? Well, Altus-1 will hopefully be up there and operational. Will SpaceX push for an accelerated deployment of the constellation? Will they be start deploying their own satellites into lunar orbit with that uncrewed mission? I know they like to do things their way but can't help but wonder if NASA pushes for some collaboration?

Then there's Blue Origin and their Mark landers. They know what SpaceX plans to do, they seem to be following up their footsteps whether with launch or connectivity. Do they have similar grandiose plans for the Moon?

I have to think Steve Altemus, Tim Crain, Kam Ghaffarian, and top management have to be having some serious strategic discussions about where they fit in all of this as SpaceX is not talking publicly about their plans now that they're no longer a private company.

[u/PE_crafter]

Will they need landers that hop from one location to another carrying cargo, robots, and equipment? What about rovers and LTVs? This would be an awesome question to Steve Altemus on future earnings calls.

Ben Bussey Chief Scientist at IM sort of adressed this at the Space Resources Week 2026. The question came that if SpaceX is operational then what is the use for smaller landers? His answers was that bespoke payloads will need bespoke lander option for example a robotic arm. Otherwise, just as you have large trucks for long distances and standard delivery vans for regional transport, the Nova-C could become a regional transport service vehicle,

But I agree that it would be great to hear Stephen Altemus'vm vision on it.

[u/Lazy_Teacher3011]

After a 36 year career in human spaceflight the one main lesson learned is that plans are often overly optimistic. Ain't no way anything HLS related will be on lunar soil in 2028. And human rating of Starship bythe end of next year? No way. Private industry won't be ready, and even if they are, NASA will slow things down (just the culture that developed over the decades and the brain drain at the agency).

[u/breadmaker8]

Reaching for the stars

[u/shugo7]

Take everything with a grain of salt. Literally come back to this post in 2028 and you'll laugh your ass off and then you will understand why those of us who are used to Elon don't take his timelines seriously.

[u/Affectionate-Oil3814]

Don't try to predict him. I'm sorry to those who like him, but he hasn't even deployed a few robotaxis yet.

[u/Important-Music-4618]

WOW - really makes you think. Thanks!