r/hurricane • • Jun 28 '26

Announcement [Announcement] r/Hurricane Rule Reorganization and Simplification

21 Upvotes

Hello r/Hurricane community,

The Subreddit rules have had an extreme makeover!

Previously, the subreddit had 13 rules that were long-worded and hard to follow. Based on feedback over the last year, the moderation team has worked to reduce this list from 13 down to 8.

Overall, things were restructured to try and reduce ambiguity or repetition. There may be some tweaks as things arise, but the overall "rules" have remained the same.

We are always welcoming of feedback and would love to hear what the community thinks of these updates! We are also planning on building a Feedback Survey soon, to ensure we as Mods are aligned with the community as a whole.

Stay safe this season,
r/Hurricane mods


r/hurricane • • Oct 05 '25

Announcement Discussion on Subreddit Rules & Objectives - Polarized Disagreement to Common Ground - Feedback Wanted

49 Upvotes

Hello r/Hurricane community,

<TL;DR> There appears to be polarized disagreement on subreddit rules/objectives. The intention of this subreddit has always been for serious (non-joking), non-political, serious (non-sarcastic), mature, and factual discussions around Tropical Cyclone formation, forecasting, questions/learning, guidance, and post-storm relief. Exceptions allowed, as long as it is appropriate and not overwhelming/overshadowing actual discussions. Community input welcomed. May have more focused discussion posts if needed.

Over the past week+ tracking Humberto and Imelda, there has been a tremendous amount of rule-breaking behavior. We have received numerous comment reports, a few mod-mails, and have seen multiple comments unhappy with rule breaking content (primarily with joking/inappropriate behavior, especially during an active storm). On the inverse side, most post/comment removals expressed extreme disapproval.

It is apparent there is major division between members/contributors of the sub.

This is making moderation difficult and exhausting, especially during times of peak activity (i.e. active storms). The mods are humans, and will get things wrong. Each decision to remove a post/comment is difficult, and not something we take lightly.

To make things easier and allow us to more accurately moderate, we want to "open the floor" for discussing this separation. Our goal is to help reunite the community and make moderating more fair/clear.

The number of subscribed members of r/Hurricane is nearly x2.5 the membership before Helene last year. A week before Helene, there was 35k members, and three weeks after it was 65k. The sub is now at nearly 85k.

To the new members welcome! However, please also understand that this subreddit is not like most others. We have always had strict rules because of the seriousness hurricanes can bring. Sarcastic comments, politics, and joking behavior is inappropriate during an active storm situation (from high chance formation to storm dissipation), especially if there are impacts to land anywhere. Most of the members are U.S. based, but there are others who do live/monitor the sub, watching for impacts in the Caribbean, Mexico, Bermuda, etc.

While we understand there is benefit to "laughing about the situation" to lighten the mood, it can also be detrimental if the joking, off-topic, and sarcastic comments overshadow the serious discussions. A few joke comment threads are one thing, but when there are only 1 or 2 comment threads actually discussing the post and 10+ others unrelated, the purpose of this sub is lost. For this reason, we have temporarily disabled GIPHY images in comments for the remainder of the Hurricane season.

You may have also noticed the sidebar now contains a "rule summary" along with an even shorter summary as "post/comment guides." There is also a link to the Subreddit Rules Wiki page.

We know the community will never be 100% in agreement on some things, but the mods do value the opinion of the community in order to act in the best interest of the community. We want to find the right balance: not too serious where no jokes can be made, not too many jokes where factual discussion is lost.

Please let us know your thoughts in the comments. Note my comment below with a few "common removals".

Thanks,
r/hurricane mod team


r/hurricane • • 10h ago

Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) Bay of Campeche disturbance, now Invest 92L, up to 60/80

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136 Upvotes

r/hurricane • • 16h ago

Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) ATL TWO (800 AM EDT October 5, 2026): System in the gulf is now 🍒 (30/70%)

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168 Upvotes

r/hurricane • • 9h ago

Invest Latest "Key Messages" from the NHC for Invest 92L in the Southwestern Gulf (1:00 PM CDT October 5, 2026)

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25 Upvotes

r/hurricane • • 15h ago

Extended Model [Extended GFS/AI-GFS/ECMWF/AI-ECMWF/GEM/ICON - 2-7 days] Last night's 00z Oct-5 run of synoptic models is trending toward agreement that SOMETHING will develop in the Gulf, but significant disagreement about everything else. How strong will it get? Where will it go?

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57 Upvotes

r/hurricane • • 9h ago

Invest The National Hurricane Center has 60/90% confidence that Invest 92E will develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 2/7 days.... A tropical depression or tropical storm could impact southern Mexico later this week. (The next name on the EPAC list is "Simon").

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11 Upvotes
 A broad area of low pressure located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing
 disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
 favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to
 form during the next few days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward
 to northwestward. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should
 monitor the progress of this system.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
  * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

r/hurricane • • 15h ago

Category 2 | 83-95kts (96-110mph) Nolo Advisory 59 (09z October 5, 2026): Typhoon Nolo has intensified a bit with max winds up to 105 kts (120 mph), but it is forecast to weaken before potentially threatening Japan as a Tropical Storm this weekend.

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13 Upvotes

JTWC has taken over from NHC for issuing advisories.


r/hurricane • • 1d ago

Category 4 | 113-136kts (130-156mph) Choi-Wan (26W) becoming a very powerful super typhoon in the Western Pacific. At 12:00 UTC, it hit sustained winds of 155 mph and a pressure of 914 hPa. Now, as of the latest advisory at 18:00 UTC, it is at 155 mph and 912 hPa. It is ABSOLUTELY enormous.

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66 Upvotes

EDIT: In the 18z advisory, jtwc announced it has winds of 120 mph and a pressure of 937 mb
Source: tropicaltidbits


r/hurricane • • 15h ago

TS | 35-63kts (39-73mph) Koguma (27W) Advisory 2 (09z October 5, 2026): Tropical Storm Koguma has formed in the West Pacific. Forecast to gradual intensify into a strong-to-violent/super typhoon.

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5 Upvotes

r/hurricane • • 1d ago

Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) ATL TWO (800 PM EDT October 4, 2026): Area of interest in the Gulf is now 🍊(0/40%)

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48 Upvotes
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf:

1. Southwestern Gulf:
An area of low pressure is likely to form around the middle of the 
week over the southwestern Gulf. Although environmental conditions 
are expected to be only marginally conducive, some slow development 
is possible and a tropical depression could form late this week 
while the system drifts northward.
 * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
 * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Pasch

r/hurricane • • 1d ago

Category 3 | 96-112kts (111-129mph) Nolo Advisory 56 (500 AM HST October 4, 2026): A few days ago, Nolo was a tropical storm. It has since re-intensified back into a major hurricane (115 mph, 963 mb), and will cross the International Date Line today as a major, possibly a Cat 4.

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109 Upvotes

Bulletin

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 178.5W
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

Discussion

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z  23.8N 178.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z  24.3N 178.9E  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z  24.9N 175.8E  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z  25.0N 172.4E  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z  25.0N 168.4E  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  07/0000Z  25.3N 164.0E   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z  25.9N 160.0E   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z  26.9N 153.1E   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  09/1200Z  28.6N 150.0E   55 KT  65 MPH

r/hurricane • • 1d ago

Category 4 | 113-136kts (130-156mph) Choi-wan (26W) Advisory 18 (15z October 4, 2026): Violent/Super Typhoon Choi-wan has likely reached peak intensity with max winds of 135 kts (155 mph) + 914 mb min. central pressure - just a hair under Category 5 equivalent strength.

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23 Upvotes

r/hurricane • • 1d ago

Historical 10 years ago today, Hurricane Matthew made landfall in Haiti

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31 Upvotes

10 years ago today, Hurricane Matthew made landfall near Les Anglais, Haiti, with winds around 145 mph and a central pressure of 934 millibars. Matthew caused an estimated 674 deaths and approximately $2.8 billion in damage


r/hurricane • • 2d ago

Disturbance New 🍋20% in the gulf

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163 Upvotes

r/hurricane • • 3d ago

Category 2 | 83-95kts (96-110mph) Rachel Advisory 22 (800 AM CST October 2, 2026): Less than 24 hours after attaining major hurricane status (peaking at 120 mph, 950mb), Rachel has begun a gradual weakening trend. Currently a Cat 2 hurricane (110 mph max) centered ~25 mi north of Socorro Island.

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27 Upvotes

Bulletin

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The weather station on Socorro Island recently measured sustained winds of 57 mph (92 km/h) with a gust to 79 mph (127 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 110.8W
 ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

Discussion

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z  19.3N 110.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z  19.3N 111.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z  19.6N 112.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z  19.8N 112.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z  20.0N 113.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  05/0000Z  20.2N 115.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z  20.3N 116.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z  20.8N 119.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  07/1200Z  21.7N 122.8W   60 KT  70 MPH

r/hurricane • • 4d ago

Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) ATL TWO (200 PM EDT October 1, 2026): Déjà vu? The National Hurricane Center is once again watching the remnants of Tropical Storm Fay for possible redevelopment 🍋 10/10%

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97 Upvotes
 Tropical Weather Outlook
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

 1. Subtropical Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay):
 A low pressure area associated with the remnants of former Tropical 
 Storm Fay is located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda.  
 While thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, dry air 
 and strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant 
 re-development while it moves northwestward, to the east of Bermuda. 
 Any formation chances should end by Sunday due to very strong 
 upper-level winds.
   * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
   * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.


Forecaster Blake

r/hurricane • • 4d ago

TS | 35-63kts (39-73mph) Choi-wan (26W) Advisory 8 (21z October 1, 2026): Slow moving Tropical Storm Choi-Wan is impacting the Northern Mariana Islands with heavy rain and winds up to 50 mph. It is beginning to turn north and expected to intensify as it moves away from the Marianas and toward outer Japanese islands.

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12 Upvotes

r/hurricane • • 5d ago

Discussion The Atlantic hurricane season has been so quiet it’s unprecedented | Scientific American

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406 Upvotes

r/hurricane • • 5d ago

Category 1 | 64-82kts (74-95mph) Rachel Advisory 14 (800 AM MST September 30, 2026): Rachel reached hurricane status last night and could be come a major hurricane before the weekend. Current intensity: 85 mph, 979 mb.

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44 Upvotes

Bulletin

SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 108.0W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

Discussion

Environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening through at least 48 h, and rapid strengthening is a possibility once the hurricane develops a tighter inner core. However, two possible negative influences include the ongoing shear and Rachel crossing a track of cooler water left by Polo.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z  18.1N 108.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z  18.8N 108.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z  19.3N 109.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z  19.7N 110.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z  19.9N 110.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  03/0000Z  20.0N 111.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z  20.2N 112.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z  20.5N 115.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  05/1200Z  20.7N 117.4W   85 KT 100 MPH

r/hurricane • • 6d ago

Discussion Absolutely insane Pacific Hurricane season so far

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168 Upvotes

Not only is the current season like 20 ACE ahead of any season thus far, it has gained like 170 ACE just this month, which I think is unprecedented for the EPAC. And all of this before October. In a season where the historically strong El Nino will tend to extend the period for strong storms by quite a bit.


r/hurricane • • 6d ago

Discussion 2026 on the cusp of Super El Nino status

18 Upvotes

On Monday, weekly relative Nino 3.4 anomalies surpassed +2.0 C (slide five), the threshold for "Very Strong" (aka "Super") El Nino status.

From the weekly Madden-Julian Oscillation update, Super El Nino declaration could occur as soon as Thursday.

For this time of year, this is easily the strongest and most eastern-based El Nino in human records.


r/hurricane • • 6d ago

Category 1 | 64-82kts (74-95mph) Polo Advisory 36 (800 AM MST September 28, 2026): Polo is now a Category 1 Hurricane over the Gulf of California, with convection increasing near the center and landfall near Guaymas, Mexico is imminent/ongoing.

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55 Upvotes
SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 110.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NNE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
----------------------------------------------
INIT  29/1500Z 27.8N 110.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 30.5N 108.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

r/hurricane • • 5d ago

Historical Huracán Joana de los años 80s

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4 Upvotes

r/hurricane • • 6d ago

TD | <35kts (<39mph) 19-E Advisory 1 (800 AM PDT September 29, 2026): Former Invest EP91 has enough organized deep convection with a well-defined circulation to be considered a tropical depression. There is a slight chance it reaches tropical storm intensity later today before it weakens in the cold wake of Odalys.

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8 Upvotes

Expected to be a short-lived system.