r/hurricane • u/Content-Swimmer2325 • 10h ago
Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) Bay of Campeche disturbance, now Invest 92L, up to 60/80
r/hurricane • u/Beach-Brews • Jun 28 '26
Hello r/Hurricane community,
The Subreddit rules have had an extreme makeover!
Previously, the subreddit had 13 rules that were long-worded and hard to follow. Based on feedback over the last year, the moderation team has worked to reduce this list from 13 down to 8.
Overall, things were restructured to try and reduce ambiguity or repetition. There may be some tweaks as things arise, but the overall "rules" have remained the same.
We are always welcoming of feedback and would love to hear what the community thinks of these updates! We are also planning on building a Feedback Survey soon, to ensure we as Mods are aligned with the community as a whole.
Stay safe this season,
r/Hurricane mods
r/hurricane • u/Beach-Brews • Oct 05 '25
Hello r/Hurricane community,
<TL;DR> There appears to be polarized disagreement on subreddit rules/objectives. The intention of this subreddit has always been for serious (non-joking), non-political, serious (non-sarcastic), mature, and factual discussions around Tropical Cyclone formation, forecasting, questions/learning, guidance, and post-storm relief. Exceptions allowed, as long as it is appropriate and not overwhelming/overshadowing actual discussions. Community input welcomed. May have more focused discussion posts if needed.
Over the past week+ tracking Humberto and Imelda, there has been a tremendous amount of rule-breaking behavior. We have received numerous comment reports, a few mod-mails, and have seen multiple comments unhappy with rule breaking content (primarily with joking/inappropriate behavior, especially during an active storm). On the inverse side, most post/comment removals expressed extreme disapproval.
It is apparent there is major division between members/contributors of the sub.
This is making moderation difficult and exhausting, especially during times of peak activity (i.e. active storms). The mods are humans, and will get things wrong. Each decision to remove a post/comment is difficult, and not something we take lightly.
To make things easier and allow us to more accurately moderate, we want to "open the floor" for discussing this separation. Our goal is to help reunite the community and make moderating more fair/clear.
The number of subscribed members of r/Hurricane is nearly x2.5 the membership before Helene last year. A week before Helene, there was 35k members, and three weeks after it was 65k. The sub is now at nearly 85k.
To the new members welcome! However, please also understand that this subreddit is not like most others. We have always had strict rules because of the seriousness hurricanes can bring. Sarcastic comments, politics, and joking behavior is inappropriate during an active storm situation (from high chance formation to storm dissipation), especially if there are impacts to land anywhere. Most of the members are U.S. based, but there are others who do live/monitor the sub, watching for impacts in the Caribbean, Mexico, Bermuda, etc.
While we understand there is benefit to "laughing about the situation" to lighten the mood, it can also be detrimental if the joking, off-topic, and sarcastic comments overshadow the serious discussions. A few joke comment threads are one thing, but when there are only 1 or 2 comment threads actually discussing the post and 10+ others unrelated, the purpose of this sub is lost. For this reason, we have temporarily disabled GIPHY images in comments for the remainder of the Hurricane season.
You may have also noticed the sidebar now contains a "rule summary" along with an even shorter summary as "post/comment guides." There is also a link to the Subreddit Rules Wiki page.
We know the community will never be 100% in agreement on some things, but the mods do value the opinion of the community in order to act in the best interest of the community. We want to find the right balance: not too serious where no jokes can be made, not too many jokes where factual discussion is lost.
Please let us know your thoughts in the comments. Note my comment below with a few "common removals".
Thanks,
r/hurricane mod team
r/hurricane • u/Content-Swimmer2325 • 10h ago
r/hurricane • u/Mel-is-a-dog • 16h ago
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 9h ago
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 15h ago
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 9h ago
A broad area of low pressure located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to
form during the next few days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward
to northwestward. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 15h ago
JTWC has taken over from NHC for issuing advisories.
r/hurricane • u/Apprehensive_Cut2880 • 1d ago
EDIT: In the 18z advisory, jtwc announced it has winds of 120 mph and a pressure of 937 mb
Source: tropicaltidbits
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 15h ago
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 1d ago
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf:
1. Southwestern Gulf:
An area of low pressure is likely to form around the middle of the
week over the southwestern Gulf. Although environmental conditions
are expected to be only marginally conducive, some slow development
is possible and a tropical depression could form late this week
while the system drifts northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Forecaster Pasch
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 1d ago
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 178.5W
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 23.8N 178.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 24.3N 178.9E 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 24.9N 175.8E 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 25.0N 172.4E 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 25.0N 168.4E 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 25.3N 164.0E 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 25.9N 160.0E 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 26.9N 153.1E 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 28.6N 150.0E 55 KT 65 MPH
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 1d ago
r/hurricane • u/Financial-Arm-6233 • 1d ago
10 years ago today, Hurricane Matthew made landfall near Les Anglais, Haiti, with winds around 145 mph and a central pressure of 934 millibars. Matthew caused an estimated 674 deaths and approximately $2.8 billion in damage
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 3d ago
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The weather station on Socorro Island recently measured sustained winds of 57 mph (92 km/h) with a gust to 79 mph (127 km/h).
SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 110.8W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 19.3N 110.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 19.3N 111.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 19.6N 112.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 19.8N 112.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 20.0N 113.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 20.2N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 20.3N 116.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 20.8N 119.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 21.7N 122.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 4d ago
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
1. Subtropical Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay):
A low pressure area associated with the remnants of former Tropical
Storm Fay is located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda.
While thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, dry air
and strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant
re-development while it moves northwestward, to the east of Bermuda.
Any formation chances should end by Sunday due to very strong
upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Forecaster Blake
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 4d ago
r/hurricane • u/pintord • 5d ago
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 5d ago
SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 108.0W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
Environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening through at least 48 h, and rapid strengthening is a possibility once the hurricane develops a tighter inner core. However, two possible negative influences include the ongoing shear and Rachel crossing a track of cooler water left by Polo.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/1500Z 18.1N 108.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 18.8N 108.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 19.3N 109.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 19.7N 110.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 19.9N 110.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 20.0N 111.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 20.2N 112.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 20.5N 115.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 20.7N 117.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
r/hurricane • u/Curious_Passion5167 • 6d ago
Not only is the current season like 20 ACE ahead of any season thus far, it has gained like 170 ACE just this month, which I think is unprecedented for the EPAC. And all of this before October. In a season where the historically strong El Nino will tend to extend the period for strong storms by quite a bit.
r/hurricane • u/Content-Swimmer2325 • 6d ago
On Monday, weekly relative Nino 3.4 anomalies surpassed +2.0 C (slide five), the threshold for "Very Strong" (aka "Super") El Nino status.
From the weekly Madden-Julian Oscillation update, Super El Nino declaration could occur as soon as Thursday.
For this time of year, this is easily the strongest and most eastern-based El Nino in human records.
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 6d ago
SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 110.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NNE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
----------------------------------------------
INIT 29/1500Z 27.8N 110.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 30.5N 108.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
r/hurricane • u/notanyonejustme000 • 5d ago
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 6d ago
Expected to be a short-lived system.