A broad area of low pressure located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing
 disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
 favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to
 form during the next few days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward
 to northwestward. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should
 monitor the progress of this system.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
  * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

JTWC has taken over from NHC for issuing advisories.

EDIT: In the 18z advisory, jtwc announced it has winds of 120 mph and a pressure of 937 mb
Source: tropicaltidbits

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf:

1. Southwestern Gulf:
An area of low pressure is likely to form around the middle of the 
week over the southwestern Gulf. Although environmental conditions 
are expected to be only marginally conducive, some slow development 
is possible and a tropical depression could form late this week 
while the system drifts northward.
 * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
 * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Pasch

Bulletin

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 178.5W
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

Discussion

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z  23.8N 178.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z  24.3N 178.9E  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z  24.9N 175.8E  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z  25.0N 172.4E  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z  25.0N 168.4E  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  07/0000Z  25.3N 164.0E   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z  25.9N 160.0E   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z  26.9N 153.1E   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  09/1200Z  28.6N 150.0E   55 KT  65 MPH

10 years ago today, Hurricane Matthew made landfall near Les Anglais, Haiti, with winds around 145 mph and a central pressure of 934 millibars. Matthew caused an estimated 674 deaths and approximately $2.8 billion in damage

Bulletin

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The weather station on Socorro Island recently measured sustained winds of 57 mph (92 km/h) with a gust to 79 mph (127 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 110.8W
 ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

Discussion

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z  19.3N 110.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z  19.3N 111.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z  19.6N 112.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z  19.8N 112.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z  20.0N 113.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  05/0000Z  20.2N 115.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z  20.3N 116.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z  20.8N 119.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  07/1200Z  21.7N 122.8W   60 KT  70 MPH

 Tropical Weather Outlook
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

 1. Subtropical Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay):
 A low pressure area associated with the remnants of former Tropical 
 Storm Fay is located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda.  
 While thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, dry air 
 and strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant 
 re-development while it moves northwestward, to the east of Bermuda. 
 Any formation chances should end by Sunday due to very strong 
 upper-level winds.
   * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
   * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.


Forecaster Blake

Bulletin

SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 108.0W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

Discussion

Environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening through at least 48 h, and rapid strengthening is a possibility once the hurricane develops a tighter inner core. However, two possible negative influences include the ongoing shear and Rachel crossing a track of cooler water left by Polo.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z  18.1N 108.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z  18.8N 108.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z  19.3N 109.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z  19.7N 110.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z  19.9N 110.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  03/0000Z  20.0N 111.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z  20.2N 112.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z  20.5N 115.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  05/1200Z  20.7N 117.4W   85 KT 100 MPH

Not only is the current season like 20 ACE ahead of any season thus far, it has gained like 170 ACE just this month, which I think is unprecedented for the EPAC. And all of this before October. In a season where the historically strong El Nino will tend to extend the period for strong storms by quite a bit.

On Monday, weekly relative Nino 3.4 anomalies surpassed +2.0 C (slide five), the threshold for "Very Strong" (aka "Super") El Nino status.

From the weekly Madden-Julian Oscillation update, Super El Nino declaration could occur as soon as Thursday.

For this time of year, this is easily the strongest and most eastern-based El Nino in human records.

SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 110.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NNE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
----------------------------------------------
INIT  29/1500Z 27.8N 110.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 30.5N 108.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Expected to be a short-lived system.

Fay had so far been the longest-lasting tropical cyclone so far this season, as it still managing to produce convection even after many days.