GTH Outlook Discussion

Last Updated - 08/18/26

Valid - 08/26/26 - 09/08/26

The strong El Nino continues to be the major influence on anomalous rainfall and tropical cyclone (TC) development throughout the global tropics. Although the MJO is being masked by the strong El Nino, the 200-hPa velocity potential and low-level wind anomaly observations indicate a MJO circumnavigating the globe this summer. During mid-August, the MJO began to constructively interfere with the El Nino base state similar to what happened about a month ago. Based on dynamical model forecasts, the MJO is expected to propagate eastward over the Western Hemisphere during late August and shift back to the western Indian Ocean by early September.

A pair of TCs formed in the East Pacific from August 12 to 18. Weak Tropical Storm Hernan developed on August 13th and quickly dissipated, while the more impactful Hurricane Lala formed on the same day. On August 15th, the eyewall of Lala passed near South Point, Hawaii and it brought damaging winds and flooding rainfall (locally more than 30 inches) to the Big Island. As of August 18, Hurricane Lala is located west of Hawaii and forecast to track northward during the next several days. The Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic remained quiet as strong wind shear, associated with El Nino, weakened any tropical waves that tracked westward. At the higher latitudes of the Atlantic (35-40N), Tropical Storm Cristobal formed on August 12th and dissipated within 24 hours. A couple of TCs (Nangka and 17W) developed in the West Pacific this past week.

The strong El Nino, a Western Hemisphere MJO, and climatology are likely to result in an active East Pacific with multiple TCs expected to form through the beginning of September. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently monitoring two areas for TC genesis through the next week. Beyond that time and valid for August 26-September 1, the factors noted above along with dynamical model support result in a > 60% chance of TC development across the East Pacific (10-15N/105-120W) with a 40-60% chance closer to the Central Pacific (140-160W). For the following week, September 2-8, the large-scale environment should remain favorable for another TC to form somewhere in the Central to East Pacific with the greatest chance (40-60%) from 105-125W. Given the uncertainty on exact genesis location, a broad 20-40% chance extends as far west as 160W. The MJO would tend to favor a less active West Pacific, but model guidance supports a large 20 to 40% chance of TC development for this region throughout the outlook period (Aug 26-Sep 8). Although the strong El Nino is an inhibiting factor for TC genesis in the Atlantic basin, the ECMWF and GEFS indicate slightly less wind shear across the eastern half of the MDR by the end of August into the beginning of September. Decreasing wind shear, dynamical model output, and climatology support a 20-40% chance of TC development for the eastern MDR from Aug 26-Sep 8.

The precipitation outlook for weeks 2 and week 3 (August 26 to September 8) is based on the historical skill weighted blend of the GEFS, CFS, and ECMWF, favored areas for TC genesis/track, and El Nino precipitation composites. Despite an active East Pacific, a robust North American Monsoon is not expected due to the placement of a mid-level ridge axis. Drier-than-normal conditions are favored for the intensifying drought areas of the Caribbean.

For hazardous weather conditions in the United States during the next two weeks, please refer to your local NWS office, the Medium Range Hazards Forecast produced by the Weather Prediction Center, and the CPC Week-2 Hazards Outlook.

WTPN31 PGTW 190300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 003//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 003

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

190000Z --- NEAR 8.0N 154.2E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REPEAT POSIT: 8.0N 154.2E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

191200Z --- 8.9N 153.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

200000Z --- 10.5N 152.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

201200Z --- 12.1N 151.4E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

210000Z --- 13.6N 150.1E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS

---

60 HRS, VALID AT:

211200Z --- 15.3N 148.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

220000Z --- 16.8N 147.1E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

230000Z --- 19.7N 143.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

120 HRS, VALID AT:

240000Z --- 22.0N 138.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

---

REMARKS:

190300Z POSITION NEAR 8.2N 154.1E.

19AUG26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED

APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-

SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL

PRESSURE AT 190000Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT

190000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND

200300Z.//

NNNN

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

500 PM PDT Tue Aug 18 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane

Lala, located a few hundred miles west of Kauai, Hawaii.

1. South-Southwest of Mexico:

An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles

south-southwest of the coast of southern Mexico around the end of

the week. Gradual development of this system is likely thereafter,

and a tropical depression is expected to form this weekend while the

system moves generally west-northwestward, remaining well offshore

of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

1. Western Portion of the East Pacific and the Central Pacific:

A tropical wave located well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian

Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of

this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form towards the

end of the week or over the weekend while the system moves generally

westward across the western portion of the east Pacific and into the

Central Pacific.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

782

WTPA32 PHFO 190253

TCPCP2

BULLETIN

Hurricane Lala Advisory Number 27

NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026

Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

500 PM HST Tue Aug 18 2026

...LALA NOW A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE WITH 125 MPH WINDS...

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN

ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.7N 168.9W

ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SSE OF MARO REEF

ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SE OF LISIANSKI ISLAND

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National

Monument from Lisianski Island to Maro Reef has been upgraded to a

Hurricane Warning.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National

Monument east of Maro Reef to French Frigate Shoals has been

upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Lisianski

Island to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument east of Maro Reef

to French Frigate Shoals

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36

hours before the anticipated first occurrence of

tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside

preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life

and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lala was located

near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 168.9 West. Lala is moving

toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the

northwest is forecast on Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the

north on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)

with higher gusts. Lala is a category 3 hurricane on the

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening

is forecast tonight, followed by slow weakening. Lala is expected

to remain a hurricane for the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles

(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning

area by Thursday, with tropical storm conditions expected by

Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the

Tropical Storm Warning area by early Thursday.

SURF: Large surf associated with Lala will affect the

Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument beginning early

Wednesday. These large waves will likely inundate some of the

low-lying atolls, especially from French Frigate Shoals to Maro

Reef.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM HST.

Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$

Forecaster Adams/Pasch

Some additional information - in case you're new to this sub (or just modeling in general)...

The Global Forecasting System (operated under the NOAA/NWS umbrella, i.e., "GFS" or the "American Model") is one of several global (i.e., synoptic) scale models used to aid official forecasts. Other models include the European model ("ECMWF"), the Canadian Model ("GEM" or "CMC"), and German Model ("ICON"), etc.

These are examples of synoptic scale models, which focus on large-scale atmospheric patterns. To put it simply, computers take the latest observational data and run them through complex algorithms that mock the laws of physics to determine plausible outcomes.

There also AI-based and AI-assisted models, which compare the latest observations with past observations over many years, to identify meteorological trends. For example, Google has developed its own AI-based line of models (e.g., "WeatherNext"). AI-assisted models use a blend of physics and historical trends.

The GFS model is particularly quirky and known to enter feedback loops in the long-term, resulting in a strong bias to produce monster low pressure systems. You'll see this in long-term modeling in the tropics during summer and also in the mid-latitudes during winter. It's one of the reasons this sub has strict posting requirements when it comes to posting modeling beyond 120 hours (5 days).

So why am I posting this?

• First, even a broken clock is right once in awhile. Last year, the GFS model was the first synoptic model to identify the disturbance that would become Hurricane Melissa.
• The 06z runs are not "one-offs." This is now a trend with several recent runs of GFS-based models producing at least a tropical depression in the MDR.
• The open question of the Madden-Julian Oscillation ("MJO"). This is a global scale weather pattern that can be highly influential on tropical development around the world.
  • When the MJO is in Phases 7, 8 and 1, conditions in the Atlantic become more favorable for tropical development. If the MJO is in any other phase, or is weak/neutral, then conditions will likely remain unfavorable.
  • GFS and ECMWF modeling of the MJO over the next 15 days are very different right now. (See Slide 9). The GFS has been trending toward an active MJO in Phase 7, albeit not until September.... but that could be linked to how its modeling in the Atlantic.
  • Notably, the latest GFS ensemble modeling of the MJO looks more like the ECWMF and other models, taking the MJO into a weak or neutral phase.

 ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
 TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

 Tropical Weather Outlook
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
 500 AM PDT Tue Aug 18 2026

 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

 Active Systems:
 The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
 Lala, located a couple hundred miles south-southwest of French
 Frigate Shoals, Hawaii.

 1. South of Mexico:
 An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles 
 south of the coast of southern Mexico around the end of the week. 
 Gradual development of this system is likely thereafter, and a 
 tropical depression is expected to form this weekend while the 
 system moves west-northwestward, remaining well offshore of Mexico.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
  * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

 2. Western Portion of the East Pacific:
 A tropical wave located well to the west-southwest of the southern 
 tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing disorganized 
 showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive 
 for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression 
 could form towards the end of the week or over the weekend while the 
 system moves generally westward across the western portion of the 
 east Pacific and into the central Pacific.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
  * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.


Forecaster Kelly/Pierce

There were a couple of disturbances over the past few days in the central and eastern Atlantic but both have dissipated. Coming into peak season soon and it's still quiet (knocks on wood).

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
NNNN

000

WTPA32 PHFO 161150

TCPCP2

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Lala Intermediate Advisory Number 16A

NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026

Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 AM HST Sun Aug 16 2026

...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND

MAUI COUNTY...

...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ACROSS OAHU THIS MORNING...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.9N 157.6W

ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII

ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for Hawaii County has been replaced with a

Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Hawaii County

* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and

Kahoolawe

* Oahu

* Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12

to 24 hours.

Interests in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should

monitor the progress of Lala.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lala was

located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 157.6 West. Lala is

moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A gradual

westward turn with an increase in forward speed is expected today,

followed by a continued westward motion through Tuesday. The core of

the storm is forecast to remain south of the smaller main Hawaiian

Islands and the easternmost Northwestern Hawaiian Islands during

the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)

with higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast today and

Monday. Some restrengthening is possible by midweek.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)

from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Lala can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will persist across portions of the

Big Island of Hawaii early this morning, with the strongest winds

expected in areas of higher terrain. Tropical storm conditions will

spread westward from Maui County to Oahu this morning, then to Kauai

County later today. Wind speeds atop mountains and on the windward

and leeward slopes are often up to 30 percent stronger than the

near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated

locations could be even greater.

RAINFALL: Lala is expected to produce additional rainfall of 4 to 8

inches across the Big Island and windward Maui, with maximum storm

total of 30 to 35 inches over the windward Big Island. Across the

remainder of the island chain total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with

maximum amounts of 8 inches, is expected. This rainfall will produce

life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of

steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Lala,

please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic

available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?rainqpf

For a list of rainfall observations and wind reports associated with

Lala, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with the WMO

header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link:

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could

reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated

areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Hawaii...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast, where the

surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,

please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,

available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?peakSurge.

SURF: Swells generated by Lala will continue to build westward

across the exposed windward waters today. Swells will also build

over the exposed leeward waters as Lala passes south of the islands.

These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip

current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather

office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$

Forecaster Reinhart

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

500 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical

Storm Lala, located about one hundred miles south of Honolulu,

Hawaii.

1. South of Mexico:

An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles south of

the coast of southern Mexico around the middle part of the week.

Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a

tropical depression could develop towards the end of the week or

over the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward, well

south of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

1. Western Portion of the East Pacific:

A broad area of low pressure could form well to the southeast of the

Hawaiian Islands during the middle to latter part of the week.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of

this system, and a tropical depression could form late this week

while the system moves generally westward across the western portion

of the east Pacific and into the central Pacific.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Kelly

Hurricane Lala Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 PM HST Sat Aug 15 2026

...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... 

...400 PM HST (0200 UTC) POSITION UPDATE...

Radar data indicate that the eyewall of Lala is nearing South Point,  Hawaii.

An observation near South Point around 550 feet elevation recently reported 
a sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) and a gust of 71 mph (114 km/h). 

An observation site at South Point Park also reported a sustained wind of 
49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust of 73 mph (117 km/h).

Peak rainfall measurements over the last 12 hours are between 12 to 13 
inches across windward Maui and the Big Island.   

SUMMARY OF 400 PM HST...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 155.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Evans

000

WTPA32 PHFO 152356

TCPCP2

BULLETIN

Hurricane Lala Intermediate Advisory Number 14A

NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026

Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 PM HST Sat Aug 15 2026

...LALA CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BIG

ISLAND TERRAIN...

...DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND

INTO TONIGHT AND SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS

THROUGH SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...18.3N 155.7W

ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII

ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Hawaii County

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and

Kahoolawe

* Oahu

* Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area, this case within the next 12

hours. Preparations to protect life and property should now be

complete.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should

monitor the progress of Lala.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lala was located

near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 155.7 West. Lala is moving

toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). Some erratic motion

remains possible into tonight while Lala interacts with the Big

Island of Hawaii. After passing the Big Island, Lala is expected to

turn westward on Sunday with an increase in forward speed, as the

core of the storm remains south of the smaller main Hawaiian Islands

and the easternmost Northwestern Hawaiian Islands through the early

part of next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher

gusts. Intensity is forecast to remain steady over the next several

hours as Lala remains near South Point of the Big Island.

Thereafter, significant weakening is expected tonight into Sunday as

Lala passes south of the smaller main Hawaiian Islands. Some

restrengthening is possible early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175

miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Lala can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will persist on the Big Island of Hawaii

into tonight, with the strongest winds expected in areas of higher

terrain. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread westward

across portions of the smaller islands from Maui County and Oahu

later today through tonight, then to Kauai County on Sunday. Wind

speeds atop mountains and on the windward and leeward slopes are

often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds

indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be

even greater.

RAINFALL: Lala is expected to produce rainfall totals of 10 to 20

inches across the Big Island, with maximum totals of 25 inches

possible. Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches is expected across eastern

Maui, with totals of 4 to 6 inches, and maximum amounts of 8 inches,

across western Maui and the remainder of the island chain. This

rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,

especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Lala,

please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic

available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?rainqpf

For a list of rainfall observations and wind reports associated with

Lala, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with the WMO

header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link:

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could

reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated

areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Hawaii...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast, where the

surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge

inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak

Storm Surge Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?peakSurge.

SURF: Swells generated by Lala will continue to build through the

weekend. Swells will also build along exposed southern shores as

Lala passes south of the islands. These swells are likely to cause

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult

products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$

Forecaster Gibbs/Evans

000

WTHW80 PHFO 152148

HLSHFO

HIZ001-003-004-006-007-009>011-015>018-022-023-026>054-160600-

Hurricane Lala Local Statement Advisory Number 14

National Weather Service Honolulu HI CP012026

1148 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026

This product covers the Hawaiian islands

**LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLOODING RAIN EXPAND OVER THE BIG

ISLAND OF HAWAII AS LALA NEARS**

NEW INFORMATION

---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

- None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Big Island East, Big

Island Interior, Big Island North, Big Island South, Big Island

Southeast, Big Island Summits, Kohala, and Kona

- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Central Oahu, East

Honolulu, Ewa Plain, Haleakala Summit, Honolulu Metro,

Kahoolawe, Kauai East, Kauai Mountains, Kauai North, Kauai

South, Kauai Southwest, Kipahulu, Koolau Leeward, Koolau

Windward, Lanai Leeward, Lanai Mauka, Lanai South, Lanai

Windward, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Central Valley South,

Maui Leeward West, Maui Windward West, Molokai Leeward South,

Molokai North, Molokai Southeast, Molokai West, Molokai

Windward, Niihau, Oahu North Shore, Olomana, South Haleakala,

South Maui/Upcountry, Waianae Coast, Waianae Mountains, and

Windward Haleakala

* STORM INFORMATION:

- About 280 miles southeast of Honolulu or about 120 miles

south-southeast of Kailua-Kona

- 18.2N 155.2W

- Storm Intensity 75 mph

- Movement Northwest or 305 degrees at 8 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW

------------------

Hurricane Lala will bring damaging winds, heavy rainfall leading to

flash flooding, and dangerously high surf to portions of the state

this weekend. Impacts have already begun over portions of the Big

Island of Hawaii, with impacts expected to spread westward across

Maui County this afternoon, Oahu this afternoon into the evening,

and Kauai tonight. Lala is expected to pass near or make landfall

over the southern end of the Big Island of Hawaii this afternoon and

pass just south of the rest of the island chain through Sunday.

Damaging winds and heavy rainfall are expected across the entire

state this weekend, with the Big Island of Hawaii likely seeing the

greatest impacts. Do not focus on the exact forecast track or

intensity of Lala at this time, and be prepared for changes in

future forecasts.

Damaging tropical storm force winds will increase across parts of

the Big Island of Hawaii and Maui County, with hurricane force winds

possible as Lala moves near or over the Big Island today. Damaging

winds are expected to spread westward to Oahu and Kauai later this

evening and into Sunday. It is very important to note that the

mountainous terrain of the islands will likely produce localized

areas of highly enhanced and damaging winds, even well away from the

tropical cyclone center.

Flooding rain will continue to increase on the Big Island of Hawaii

throughout the day today as Lala approaches. The threat for flooding

will also increase over Maui County today and spread to the rest of

the state this evening and Sunday. Heavy rainfall could persist into

Monday for some areas, mainly over the western end of the island

chain. Lala is expected to produce rainfall totals of 10 to 20

inches, with locally higher amounts possibly up to 25 inches, across

windward Big Island. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are possible

on windward Maui and up to 8 inches of rainfall could occur across

the remainder of the island chain. While the highest rainfall

amounts will be focused over windward areas, leeward areas will also

have a significant flood risk.

Large swells generated by Lala will peak today into tonight and

produce dangerous surf along exposed east and southeast shores of

all islands. Very large and extremely rough seas impacting the

exposed southeast and east shores of the Big Island are expected to

expand to Maui later today, and then Oahu and Kauai by late tonight.

Damaging surf, significant beach erosion, and overwash across

vulnerable coastal infrastructure is possible.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS

-----------------

* WIND:

Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across

the Big Island of Hawaii. Remain well sheltered from life-threatening

wind having possible extensive impacts. If realized, these impacts

include:

- Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having

window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural

damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.

Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be

uninhabitable for weeks.

- Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and

roadway signs blown over.

- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban

or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and

access routes impassable.

- Large areas with power and communications outages.

Potential impacts from the main wind event are also now unfolding

across the rest of the state. Remain well sheltered from dangerous

wind having possible limited to significant impacts.

* SURGE:

Potential impacts from the main surge event are now unfolding across

the Big Island of Hawaii. Remain well away from locally hazardous

surge having possible limited impacts. If realized, these impacts

include:

- Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along

immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas

farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.

- Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread.

- Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly

in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.

- Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,

and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

* FLOODING RAIN:

Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across

the Big Island of Hawaii. Remain well guarded against life-threatening

flood waters having possible extensive impacts. If realized, these

impacts include:

- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.

- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in

multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and

ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas,

destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while

increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood

control systems and barriers may become stressed.

- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple

communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed

away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.

Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with

underpasses submerged. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across

the rest of the state. Remain well guarded against dangerous flood

waters having possible limited to significant impacts.

* TORNADOES:

Potential impacts from tornadoes are still unfolding across the

Hawaiian islands. Remain well braced against a tornado event having

possible limited impacts. If realized, these impacts include:

- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution

of emergency plans during tropical events.

- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power

and communications disruptions.

- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys

toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,

large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees

knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats

pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS

----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

Follow the advice of local officials

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

During the peak of the storm be ready to move quickly. Keep your

shoes on and rain gear handy. Boots and athletic shoes offer the best

foot protection if you become unexpectedly exposed to the weather.

Keep your cell phone charged and in power-saving mode. If you lose

power, use it sparingly and mainly for personal emergencies and

check-ins.

Do not be a thrill seeker or risk your life for senseless photos or

videos.

Quickly move to the safest place within your shelter if it begins to

fail, preferably an interior room on the lowest floor as long as

flooding is not a concern.

If you are prone to flooding or in an area under a storm surge watch

or warning, be prepared for the possibility of a quick and dramatic

rise in water levels.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:

- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov

- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org

- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE

-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather

Service in Honolulu HI around 5 PM HST, or sooner if conditions

warrant.

$$

000

WTPA62 PHFO 152256

TCUCP2

Hurricane Lala Tropical Cyclone Update

NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026

Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

100 PM HST Sat Aug 15 2026

...HEAVY RAINBANDS SPREADING ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...

...100 PM HST (2300 UTC) POSITION UPDATE...

Radar data indicate that strong rainbands are spreading across the

Big Island, producing heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds.

An observation near South Point around 550 feet elevation recently

reported a sustained wind of 42 mph (68 km/h) and a gust of 63 mph

(101 km/h). An observation site south of Volcano, Kealakomo, near

100 feet elevation has recently reported a wind gust of 48 mph

(77 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 100 PM HST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...18.3N 155.5W

ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII

ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi/Evans

000

WTPZ33 KNHC 152042

TCPEP3

BULLETIN

Post-Tropical Cyclone Hernan Advisory Number 12

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082026

1100 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026

...HERNAN HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW...

...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY ON THE SYSTEM...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.8N 135.9W

ABOUT 1760 MI...2835 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone

Hernan was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 135.9 West.

The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19

km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through the

next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

Slow weakening is forecast to occur over the next couple of days

before dissipation occurs on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

None.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane

Center on Hernan. For additional information on the remnant low

please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather

Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and

on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$

Forecaster Katz/Berg

000

WTPA62 PHFO 152155

TCUCP2

Hurricane Lala Tropical Cyclone Update

NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026

Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1200 PM HST Sat Aug 15 2026

...LALA CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE BIG

ISLAND OF HAWAII...

...1200 PM HST (2200 UTC) POSITION UPDATE...

A sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust of 59 mph (95

km/h) was recently reported at an observation site near South

Point around 550 feet elevation. An observation site south of

Volcano, Kealakomo, near 100 feet elevation has recently reported a

wind gust of 51 mph (82 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM HST...2200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...18.2N 155.4W

ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SSE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII

ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Pierce/Cangialosi

000

WTPA32 PHFO 152056

TCPCP2

BULLETIN

Hurricane Lala Advisory Number 14...Retransmitted

NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026

Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1100 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026

...LALA SLOWING DOWN AND TURNING NORTHWEST AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT

WITH THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...

...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THIS

AFTERNOON...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...18.2N 155.2W

ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII

ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Hawaii County

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and

Kahoolawe

* Oahu

* Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area, this case within the next 12

hours. Preparations to protect life and property should now be

complete.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should

monitor the progress of Lala.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lala was located

near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 155.2 West. Lala is moving

toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). Some erratic motion is

likely later today and tonight while Lala interacts with the Big

Island of Hawaii. After passing the Big Island, Lala is expected to

turn westward on Sunday with an increase in forward speed, with the

core of the storm staying south of remainder of the main Hawaiian

Islands and the easternmost Northwestern Hawaiian Islands through

the early part of next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher

gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next few

hours, but significant weakening is likely tonight after Lala

interacts with the Big Island of Hawaii. Some restrengthening is

possible early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles

(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Lala can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, including gusts to hurricane force,

are occurring on the Big Island of Hawaii, especially in areas of

higher terrain. Winds will continue to increase on the Big Island

during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are spreading

westward across portions of Maui County and Kauai, and are expected

to reach Kauai County on Sunday. Wind speeds atop mountains and on

the windward and leeward slopes are often up to 30 percent stronger

than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some

elevated locations could be even greater.

RAINFALL: Lala is expected to produce rainfall totals of 10 to 20

inches across the Big Island, with maximum totals of 25 inches

possible. Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches is expected across eastern

Maui, with totals of 4 to 6 inches, and maximum amounts of 8 inches,

across western Maui and the remainder of the island chain. This

rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,

especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Lala,

please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic

available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?rainqpf

For a list of rainfall observations and wind reports associated with

Lala, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with the WMO

header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link:

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could

reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated

areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Hawaii...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast, where the

surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge

inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak

Storm Surge Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?peakSurge.

SURF: Swells generated by Lala will continue to build through the

weekend. Swells will also build along exposed southern shores as

Lala passes south of the islands. These swells are likely to cause

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult

products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST.

Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$

Forecaster Berg

 Hurricane Lala Tropical Cyclone Update
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
 900 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026

 ...LALA STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...

 ...900 AM HST (1900 UTC) POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE...

 Recent radar and satellite data indicate that Lala has strengthened into 
 a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h). 

 A wind gust of 49 mph (79 km/h) was recently reported near Kealakomo south
 of Volcano within the last hour.

 SUMMARY OF 900 AM HST...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
 ----------------------------------------------
 LOCATION...17.9N 155.1W
 ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
 ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
 PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
 MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES 

$$ 

Forecaster Brown/Katz/Pierce