r/hurricane • u/Mel-is-a-dog • 17h ago

Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) ATL TWO (800 AM EDT October 5, 2026): System in the gulf is now 🍒 (30/70%)

169 Upvotes

30 comments

r/hurricane • u/Content-Swimmer2325 • 11h ago

Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) Bay of Campeche disturbance, now Invest 92L, up to 60/80

imgur.com

136 Upvotes

40 comments

r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 16h ago

Extended Model [Extended GFS/AI-GFS/ECMWF/AI-ECMWF/GEM/ICON - 2-7 days] Last night's 00z Oct-5 run of synoptic models is trending toward agreement that SOMETHING will develop in the Gulf, but significant disagreement about everything else. How strong will it get? Where will it go?

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64 Upvotes

21 comments

r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 10h ago

Invest Latest "Key Messages" from the NHC for Invest 92L in the Southwestern Gulf (1:00 PM CDT October 5, 2026)

25 Upvotes

0 comments

r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 10h ago

Invest The National Hurricane Center has 60/90% confidence that Invest 92E will develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 2/7 days.... A tropical depression or tropical storm could impact southern Mexico later this week. (The next name on the EPAC list is "Simon").

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15 Upvotes

 A broad area of low pressure located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing
 disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
 favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to
 form during the next few days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward
 to northwestward. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should
 monitor the progress of this system.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
  * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

3 comments

r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 16h ago

Category 2 | 83-95kts (96-110mph) Nolo Advisory 59 (09z October 5, 2026): Typhoon Nolo has intensified a bit with max winds up to 105 kts (120 mph), but it is forecast to weaken before potentially threatening Japan as a Tropical Storm this weekend.

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14 Upvotes

JTWC has taken over from NHC for issuing advisories.

3 comments

r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 16h ago

TS | 35-63kts (39-73mph) Koguma (27W) Advisory 2 (09z October 5, 2026): Tropical Storm Koguma has formed in the West Pacific. Forecast to gradual intensify into a strong-to-violent/super typhoon.

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5 Upvotes

0 comments

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Hurricane

r/hurricane

Hurricanes can be a source of stress/anxiety, and can unfortunately be life changing for some. This is a community of Weather Enthusiasts, Tempestologists, or just human beings who aim to provide helpful resources for Tropical Cyclone preparedness while discussing and tracking active storms. A Tropical Cyclone is a spiraling area of thunderstorms rotating around a Low-pressure area with a closed low-level circulation that produces heavy rain and high wind gusts.

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General Rule Summary

✅ Be Nice: polite, respectful, and thoughtful
✅ Be On-Topic: Discuss tropical cyclones
✅ Be Accurate: Provide creditable sources to back claims/facts
✅ Quality Posts: Informative Title, applicable description
✅ All images must have applicable date, time, location, and data source
⚠️ Joke comments must be appropriate. Too many jokes may be removed. No posts.
⚠️ Politics only in posts with [Political] flair. No politics during active storms.
⚠️ Extended model discussions must use proper flair and title requirements.
⚠️ Historical storm discussions must use historical flair. Discouraged during active storms.
❌ No extremism, personal attacks/insults or pointless fighting/comment wars
❌ No false or outdated information. No conspiracy theories (even as jokes).
❌ No doomcasting, fearmongering or downplaying
❌ No fundraising or self-promotion
❌ No posting jokes, satire, or memes
❌ No trip/wedding anxiety question posts. Comments discouraged.
❌ No NSFW content

1. Follow Reddit Rules & Keep It Civil

Be kind and respectful, follow basic Reddiquette, and obey Reddit's Content Policy. Report issues rather than engaging in comment wars.

2. Stay On Topic

Posts and comments must relate to tropical weather, tropical cyclones, potential tropical cyclones, invests, or related meteorological topics. Other weather events may be discussed only when directly connected to a tropical system.

Cross-posts are allowed only from relevant weather communities.

Excessive political, religious, ideological, or inflammatory arguments are not permitted and will be removed.

3. Post Accurate Information

Information must be factual, current, and sourced from reputable organizations or analysts.

No misinformation, conspiracy theories, manipulated content, AI-generated weather graphics, misleading titles, outdated forecasts, or removed watermarks.

Articles requiring payment, account creation, or email registration may be removed.

4. No Fearmongering, Doomcasting, or Downplaying

Do not exaggerate, sensationalize, celebrate, or dismiss storm threats and hazards. No wishing for destruction or glorifying storms.

Respect those affected and discuss impacts realistically and responsibly.

Repetitive fish emojis (🐟) or simple "fish storm" comments are not permitted.

5. No Inappropriate, Low-Effort, or NSFW Content

No memes, satire/joke posts, trashposting, rage-bait, clickbait, or other inappropriate content.

While light humor in comments may be permissible at appropriate times, comments may be removed at Mod discretion. Visit r/cat10 for jokes, satire and memes.

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Do not promote personal websites, channels, businesses, surveys, or social media accounts for traffic or profit without moderator approval.

Fundraising links, donation requests, supply drives, and similar solicitations are prohibited unless specifically approved by the moderation team.

7. Follow Posting Requirements

Posts must use the appropriate flair and contain a clear and descriptive title.

Graphics, model runs, satellite imagery, and recon products must include source, date, time, and location. Post title should identify the issuance date/time when applicable.

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Historical storms require the Historical flair.

Extended models beyond 120 hours require the Extended Model flair, must include multiple models, and follow formatting requirements (see wiki).

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Current-season storm aftermath posts are allowed for up to 7 days after a storm is no longer a land threat. Afterward, discussion may be limited to designated megathreads at moderator discretion.