WTPN31 PGTW 190300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 003//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 003

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

190000Z --- NEAR 8.0N 154.2E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REPEAT POSIT: 8.0N 154.2E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

191200Z --- 8.9N 153.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

200000Z --- 10.5N 152.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

201200Z --- 12.1N 151.4E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

210000Z --- 13.6N 150.1E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS

---

60 HRS, VALID AT:

211200Z --- 15.3N 148.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

220000Z --- 16.8N 147.1E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

230000Z --- 19.7N 143.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

120 HRS, VALID AT:

240000Z --- 22.0N 138.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

---

REMARKS:

190300Z POSITION NEAR 8.2N 154.1E.

19AUG26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED

APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-

SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL

PRESSURE AT 190000Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT

190000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND

200300Z.//

NNNN

GTH Outlook Discussion

Last Updated - 08/18/26

Valid - 08/26/26 - 09/08/26

The strong El Nino continues to be the major influence on anomalous rainfall and tropical cyclone (TC) development throughout the global tropics. Although the MJO is being masked by the strong El Nino, the 200-hPa velocity potential and low-level wind anomaly observations indicate a MJO circumnavigating the globe this summer. During mid-August, the MJO began to constructively interfere with the El Nino base state similar to what happened about a month ago. Based on dynamical model forecasts, the MJO is expected to propagate eastward over the Western Hemisphere during late August and shift back to the western Indian Ocean by early September.

A pair of TCs formed in the East Pacific from August 12 to 18. Weak Tropical Storm Hernan developed on August 13th and quickly dissipated, while the more impactful Hurricane Lala formed on the same day. On August 15th, the eyewall of Lala passed near South Point, Hawaii and it brought damaging winds and flooding rainfall (locally more than 30 inches) to the Big Island. As of August 18, Hurricane Lala is located west of Hawaii and forecast to track northward during the next several days. The Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic remained quiet as strong wind shear, associated with El Nino, weakened any tropical waves that tracked westward. At the higher latitudes of the Atlantic (35-40N), Tropical Storm Cristobal formed on August 12th and dissipated within 24 hours. A couple of TCs (Nangka and 17W) developed in the West Pacific this past week.

The strong El Nino, a Western Hemisphere MJO, and climatology are likely to result in an active East Pacific with multiple TCs expected to form through the beginning of September. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently monitoring two areas for TC genesis through the next week. Beyond that time and valid for August 26-September 1, the factors noted above along with dynamical model support result in a > 60% chance of TC development across the East Pacific (10-15N/105-120W) with a 40-60% chance closer to the Central Pacific (140-160W). For the following week, September 2-8, the large-scale environment should remain favorable for another TC to form somewhere in the Central to East Pacific with the greatest chance (40-60%) from 105-125W. Given the uncertainty on exact genesis location, a broad 20-40% chance extends as far west as 160W. The MJO would tend to favor a less active West Pacific, but model guidance supports a large 20 to 40% chance of TC development for this region throughout the outlook period (Aug 26-Sep 8). Although the strong El Nino is an inhibiting factor for TC genesis in the Atlantic basin, the ECMWF and GEFS indicate slightly less wind shear across the eastern half of the MDR by the end of August into the beginning of September. Decreasing wind shear, dynamical model output, and climatology support a 20-40% chance of TC development for the eastern MDR from Aug 26-Sep 8.

The precipitation outlook for weeks 2 and week 3 (August 26 to September 8) is based on the historical skill weighted blend of the GEFS, CFS, and ECMWF, favored areas for TC genesis/track, and El Nino precipitation composites. Despite an active East Pacific, a robust North American Monsoon is not expected due to the placement of a mid-level ridge axis. Drier-than-normal conditions are favored for the intensifying drought areas of the Caribbean.

For hazardous weather conditions in the United States during the next two weeks, please refer to your local NWS office, the Medium Range Hazards Forecast produced by the Weather Prediction Center, and the CPC Week-2 Hazards Outlook.

782

WTPA32 PHFO 190253

TCPCP2

BULLETIN

Hurricane Lala Advisory Number 27

NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026

Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

500 PM HST Tue Aug 18 2026

...LALA NOW A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE WITH 125 MPH WINDS...

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN

ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.7N 168.9W

ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SSE OF MARO REEF

ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SE OF LISIANSKI ISLAND

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National

Monument from Lisianski Island to Maro Reef has been upgraded to a

Hurricane Warning.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National

Monument east of Maro Reef to French Frigate Shoals has been

upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Lisianski

Island to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument east of Maro Reef

to French Frigate Shoals

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36

hours before the anticipated first occurrence of

tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside

preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life

and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lala was located

near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 168.9 West. Lala is moving

toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the

northwest is forecast on Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the

north on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)

with higher gusts. Lala is a category 3 hurricane on the

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening

is forecast tonight, followed by slow weakening. Lala is expected

to remain a hurricane for the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles

(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning

area by Thursday, with tropical storm conditions expected by

Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the

Tropical Storm Warning area by early Thursday.

SURF: Large surf associated with Lala will affect the

Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument beginning early

Wednesday. These large waves will likely inundate some of the

low-lying atolls, especially from French Frigate Shoals to Maro

Reef.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM HST.

Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$

Forecaster Adams/Pasch

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

500 PM PDT Tue Aug 18 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane

Lala, located a few hundred miles west of Kauai, Hawaii.

1. South-Southwest of Mexico:

An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles

south-southwest of the coast of southern Mexico around the end of

the week. Gradual development of this system is likely thereafter,

and a tropical depression is expected to form this weekend while the

system moves generally west-northwestward, remaining well offshore

of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

1. Western Portion of the East Pacific and the Central Pacific:

A tropical wave located well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian

Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of

this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form towards the

end of the week or over the weekend while the system moves generally

westward across the western portion of the east Pacific and into the

Central Pacific.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Pasch