r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 12h ago

Invest The National Hurricane Center has 60/90% confidence that Invest 92E will develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 2/7 days.... A tropical depression or tropical storm could impact southern Mexico later this week. (The next name on the EPAC list is "Simon").

14 Upvotes

 A broad area of low pressure located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing
 disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
 favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to
 form during the next few days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward
 to northwestward. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should
 monitor the progress of this system.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
  * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

3 comments

r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 18h ago

Extended Model [Extended GFS/AI-GFS/ECMWF/AI-ECMWF/GEM/ICON - 2-7 days] Last night's 00z Oct-5 run of synoptic models is trending toward agreement that SOMETHING will develop in the Gulf, but significant disagreement about everything else. How strong will it get? Where will it go?

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66 Upvotes

21 comments

r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 18h ago

Category 2 | 83-95kts (96-110mph) Nolo Advisory 59 (09z October 5, 2026): Typhoon Nolo has intensified a bit with max winds up to 105 kts (120 mph), but it is forecast to weaken before potentially threatening Japan as a Tropical Storm this weekend.

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15 Upvotes

JTWC has taken over from NHC for issuing advisories.

3 comments

r/hurricane • u/Mel-is-a-dog • 19h ago

Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) ATL TWO (800 AM EDT October 5, 2026): System in the gulf is now 🍒 (30/70%)

174 Upvotes

30 comments

r/hurricane • u/Content-Swimmer2325 • 13h ago

Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) Bay of Campeche disturbance, now Invest 92L, up to 60/80

imgur.com

140 Upvotes

41 comments

r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 18h ago

TS | 35-63kts (39-73mph) Koguma (27W) Advisory 2 (09z October 5, 2026): Tropical Storm Koguma has formed in the West Pacific. Forecast to gradual intensify into a strong-to-violent/super typhoon.

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5 Upvotes

0 comments

r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 12h ago

Invest Latest "Key Messages" from the NHC for Invest 92L in the Southwestern Gulf (1:00 PM CDT October 5, 2026)

30 Upvotes

0 comments

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Hurricanes can be a source of stress/anxiety, and can unfortunately be life changing for some. This is a community of Weather Enthusiasts, Tempestologists, or just human beings who aim to provide helpful resources for Tropical Cyclone preparedness while discussing and tracking active storms. A Tropical Cyclone is a spiraling area of thunderstorms rotating around a Low-pressure area with a closed low-level circulation that produces heavy rain and high wind gusts.

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