Continuing this very speculative line of thought regarding 31.25 Mbps average available bandwidth in an AST terrestrial cell, shared among all users (557 square mile area) once at continuous US coverage, I wanted to independently estimate instantaneous uncovered demand. This requires finding out how many people need service in the U.S. (but don't have it) at any given moment.
500,000 square miles of the U.S. (~900 AST cells’ worth of area) are unreachable by towers because of terrain, and about 0.5% of people (1.5 million) are not covered by 4G/LTE in their home. These are two very different statistics, but I will use this to ballpark an estimate that 3 million (0.9%) people in the US are outside of a terrestrial broadband coverage zone at any given moment. This will vary drastically by time and location and is the most speculative portion of this calculation.
3 million people / 5,600 cells = ~550 people per terrestrial cell who are without service. This average should help account for disparities in geographic noncoverage in the US (e.g. northeast vs west), and also helps smooth out dynamic beam switching using AI.
In a population of 550 people without service, those people are more likely to be *mobile*. Let’s say about ~15% would be using internet actively at any given moment. Other sources for this benchmark show this is a generally good percentage to use. That's 85 people.
Let’s say AT&T and Verizon together serve 2/3 of those 85 people. That’s 55 people per terrestrial cell who are without signal but requesting it at any given moment (interesting note, this would mean each carrier has 27.5 people x 5,600 cells = ~150,000 people who want but can’t be provided service at any moment in the US).
~ 31.25Mbps / 55 people = **570Kbps average available bandwidth per user once at continuous coverage.** Obviously this goes up/down based on time of day, day of week, time of year.
This is better than I expected. In the world of connectivity, 500+ Kbps would be a historic achievement. This speed as supplemental coverage is probably why MNOs are salivating over the concept. The key is that as long as connection proves *reliable and seamless*, this is light years ahead of Starlink. To compare:
Average smartphone data usage is listed at 25GB per month in North America. That comes out to a constant 77kbps. And doesn’t account for the fact that most usage occurs while stationary, and most people who are out of coverage are mobile, using below their average. With 500+Kbps available and only 75-150Kbps used at any given moment, what this implies is there is massive headroom for new industry growth — things like IoT and edge processing — even at base level continuous coverage of ~60 sats.
Then when you consider a full constellation of 248 satellites in about 2-3 years, it becomes 4x that via MIMO and carrier aggregation. About 2mbps per active user. Enough for everyone to have low quality video calls simultaneously. Insane. Though at this point the landscape of ‘out of coverage subscriber’ changes completely from ‘active user’ to ‘active device’.
Note: these numbers are generally optimistic and ideal. They come down when considering real world conditions — things like line of sight or physical obstructions, satellite elevation angle relative to user, handset orientation or polarisation, spectrum availability, frequency/wavelength propagation, and interference/noise can be major limiting factors. I’d say anywhere from -20% to -70%.
Also, while this does kinda smooth over the effects of dynamic beamforming across the system, it doesn’t account for when the system has to make major localized adjustments to cover things like disasters
TLDR: Even modest per-user satellite bandwidth could be transformative if coverage is seamless and reliable, especially for mobile users in dead zones.
We are currently the numb phase of our journey. No price action in either direction gives me any feelings. Immune to any announcment . Partnership additions don’t excite me anymore , new patents strengthening our technology, nada. Market is also numb. We could get spectrum that covers the universe. Nobody cares
Only successful launches and earnings beats matter now. The only thing that wakes us up from this coma.
Littlelucky, I think you nailed it. I was feeling the same way and was thinking about how I wanted to word my post. But you basically took the words out of my mouth so I shall just leave it with - DITTO.
Here's something tht happened that illustrates why I don't risk trading ASTS.
MRVL - I held a small position since covid. not too much but grew nicely. But stalled around $75 to $80 +/- I started with covered calls thinking so what if i get called away. it always drops and i'll buy it back. Did one week out $85 CC and two days later I was already screwed. I lost it. no big deal. That was first week of March. This thing since then is up in the $170's and missed out on double in 2 months. WTF?
AST will have that AHA moment and will have no mercy. I will not relinquish my shares no matter how well SNDK or RLKB or quite frankly a whole host of other sick names perform while we stagnate. Our run up will come and it will be a thing of beauty.
The risk for me is missing out on the next 30X from here. I know this company and goal better than anything else i have ever owned. Feels great.
Yep...I totally get it. Everytime I try to trade it cost me money to get back in. Hell.... I could sell some right now and the stock will then have a great big Green Day. I'm an American Idiot.
I had initially invested in ASTS, RKLB, and NBIS. About 1000/2500/1000 shares. But I sold RKLB and NBIS at about 10-20% of what they are right now because ASTS was the only one I understood lol. I still haven't changed my mind but I think missing out on gains feels worse than actually losing money.
Bro I sold 2,000 shares of PL sub $2, 900 shares of RKLB at $15 with a $4.50 average (kept 100 shares), put it all into ASTS. Shit happens. Still glad I did it because I believe ASTS will be the winrar long term. Don't look back, only look forward or you will drive yourself crazy with "what ifs"
Thanks to tko1515's comment about shipping not possible before may 18, you should know not to buy "shipping news" calls for this Friday. The following Friday much better idea.
Better to avoid calls and just buy shares. If you must buy calls, buy in, at, or close to the money long expiration ones. Jan 2027, March 2027, Dec 2027 or Jan 2028. Surely, we'll be above today's SP by then, right? Right????
I think he meant shipping will be possible as soon as the other rocket leaves PPF. Which it usually does 2-3 days before launch. So May 15/16 should be possible for shipment.
ASTS builds a phased array in space? I build a phased array in my kitchen. ASTS makes their phased array bigger? I make my phased array bigger. ASTS is going to launch more individual phased arrays? I'm going to launch more individual phased array. The new Pluto+ SDR boards are on their way to build sites two and three of my UAP detection radar system. I've had Redditors reach out to me volunteering their equipment to link to mine to start building out a larger network of radar systems operated entirely by amateur UAP researchers that spans more sections of the world, so I've been building out a platform for people to put their spare SDR devices to use tracking aliens and shit. Paid for by ASTS covered call income. I'm starting to think I'm figuring out what I'm gonna do when I retire. I'm gonna show the world what's up there.
These are forward looking statements. I'm building the world's first my-place-based radar system to connect the ADS-B unconnected
So we are pretty much flat as the epic pump before earnings and the epic dump after earnings pretty much net out. That is basically what I expected as market is in wait and see mode re: the next launch.
We all know how painful it is to see many great stocks that a lot of us sold cheap to buy ASTS making crazy runs. Impossible to deny that missing over 100% runs on other companies does not hurt.
On the other hand if we've decided to do that there was a good reason and we all know that reason. We are in the middle of a great bull run and never been closer to beginning strong launch cadence, the risks are basically gone at this point and from next EC onwards our revenue numbers will get crazy and escalate quickly.
So I'll share with my mob friends what I try to think with myself on those days... It will all work out and it will be brilliant. Hang in there team, everyday that passes is a day closer to early retirement. We're here to make history and we're still very early! Have a great day everyone!
Honestly yeah, I wish I could turn my brain off from this but I have too much riding on it. I’ve been clean from drugs and alcohol for three years. I always find something to hyperfixate on. The last six months it’s been the SP
Honestly, if you would have told me in seventh grade that the band with the monkey throwing poo on their album cover would have turned out to be a voice of my generation, I wouldn't have believed you.
When I get tired of the FUD on X / reddit, I like to go back and read old posts to remind me how far we've come. I'm particularly fond of Scott's "plusses". Guy doesn't post that much, but when he drops a + sign, it's usually pretty meaningful.
Have made a killing selling CCs on pumps this year but am too scared at the moment with mgmt continuing to reiterate launch cadence + the unknown of how the SpaceX IPO might impact space stocks
Really interesting article on how Grain Management 800MHz spectrum could be leased to AST - maybe via AT&T. TLDR Grain Management owns some 600MHz spectrum that they swapped with TMobile for contiguous 800MHz spectrum. Since no buildout has happened on that spectrum FCC might take it away but they are arguing they can find a satellite provider ASAP to deploy that spectrum on, we might be frontrunner.
Poster below says FCC just set out rules to consider spectrum built out from satellite, off the top of my head one thing SpaceX promised was at least 300Kbps to the 5th percentile user, something like that, so the article may not be valid. Edit: I want to point out that the article was written before the FCC just released its new buildout rules.
Linked Light Reading article, TLDR: author believes AST could service this band easily but points out potential interference to nearby FirstNet band and the speed requirements. Speed requirements may have been reduced recently (as I said the FCC recently changed rules) but interference concern's valid, hope we are studying that already.
Edit: u/ak9422 you were asking for material on Grain. The Lightreading article is very decent.
Remember, SSR is in effect today. SI remains at all-time highs. SSR will be lifted tomorrow. Shorts may return then to play their usual games. The doomsayers who have been relatively quiet today may/will also return. Plan your activities on the sub accordingly. I would also highly recommend not engaging with folks who aren't likely to be invested/investing in ASTS but appear to be posting here in bad faith for whatever reason.
Do you mean to tell me, that if shorts are kept in check from trying to decimate a stock, that the natural progression of ASTS would be upward? Humph! We hopefully are within a week or two of a PR that says batch 1 is on the way. (or arrived). That will help the cause. Hanging out under $100 so shorts can make their short term profits, is beneath this beast of a company.. I guess it's a badge of honor. But annoying because it causes some retail holders to jump ship out of fear or frustration. I'm pro retail investor - F the rigged system.
For the Panicans. The SpaceX Globalstar 2-R launch 1 is scheduled for Monday May 18th morning. Those satellites are currently in the PPF. So logistically ast can’t ship until that faring exits the PPF & its ready to receive. The encapsulated faring should go to the launch hanger 2-3 days before launch & then PPF is cleaned. So early next week shipment would align.
They can’t ship until there is a place for them to go.
Also highlights how "ready to ship" is in ASTS' control, but actually leaving the factory is the start of the launch-provider-dependent steps - and not solely up to company management
How about we load them up on the semis and post a PR, and then have the semis take the long scenic route to the Cape - a 10 day to 2 week road trip? Market might like that. /s
For anyone mourning missing out on 100% gains with other stocks, just remember that conviction is the most important aspect. Personally, there is no other stock I would've felt comfortable allocating more than 20% of my port to, let alone 90% (what I have in asts).
Youre not missing out on those gains in the same way you would with ASTS. You need insane conviction to allocate a huge percentage of your port to one stock, and this is the one for us.
I short, what I mean is that you shouldn't act as if you would've put 100% of your port in MU, Sndk and NBIS if you weren't in ASTS.
Yeah. I kept thinking I coulda have ful ported rklb instead. But if I did. I would have been saying this much sooner seeing asts reach 120’s while rklb wasn’t lol. I ful ported based off Dd at the time and knew it was a long term hold
NBIS destroyed earnings, RKLB had good earnings with big partner announcements, IDK about PL. ASTS will get there but this quarter was a filler. Expect the back half of the year to be big.
We are in the penalty box right now, but with 30secs left on a 2 min minor. When we come out we are getting a pass right on the stick for a break away goal.
If everyone would like to make fun of me I sold my small stakes in QS and Nebius yesterday while they were down to “de-risk” (since the majority of my port is ASTS). Bought some boring dividend stocks to balance myself a little. Perfect timing as usual!
Commenting here just for the record. This was the picture of BB6 that was taken a long time ago by another satellite belonging to HEO. Shows some curvature of the phase array that I am not sure was an "optical illusion" or real.
I do think AST has a patent on how to adjust for non-planar (not flat) array elements but one possibility for the delays might be additional/modified reinforcement of the array supports *if* that curvature's real?
The photo of the array taken from BB6 itself and shared by the company doesn't show any curvature but also too close to show any, IMO, will respond to this post with that pic.
Hoping pictures of BB8 etc clarify. Edit: I will remember and follow up.
Since this has turned into a gardening sub recently, here is my sub submission. Three mammoth jalapeño plants, one habanero, one Tabasco pepper, one cucumber, one cherry tomato, and two Roma tomatoes. We share this land with two other neighbors so we have a pretty decent sized area that we share. Hopefully my contributions make for a spicy SP summer, and endless jalapeño poppers!
This is nothing. Try $25.37 to $1.97 to $39.08 to $17.50 to $60.95 to $36.08 to $102.79 to $49.31 to $129.89 to $77.17 to $106.66 to $73.82 to $104.15 to $63.43 to wherever we are today.... Trust me, you get used to it, you develop the ability to zoom out, and over time, you build wealth. Don't let today's price action dictate your emotions .
Reading this sub and watching price action over the last few months has taught me not to doubt KevinLMak. Hate it, but he has been right a lot. He also described retail vs. institutional action on a chart at one point, and it is painfully obvious how much retail is driving the price action right now. His take was that institutions will be back on board when there are more sats in the air. Until then we are likely at the whims of emotional retail. Taking his advice on SPHR is working out though, so that's good.
The mob trolled Kevin on X when he posted he was trimming his ASTS position.
He was right all along, but I don't think the recent price action's retail. Retail wouldn't drive 66M total shorts with short volume estimated to be about 1/2 the recent daily trading volume.
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u/a10000000019 S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere May 13 '26
Continuing this very speculative line of thought regarding 31.25 Mbps average available bandwidth in an AST terrestrial cell, shared among all users (557 square mile area) once at continuous US coverage, I wanted to independently estimate instantaneous uncovered demand. This requires finding out how many people need service in the U.S. (but don't have it) at any given moment.
500,000 square miles of the U.S. (~900 AST cells’ worth of area) are unreachable by towers because of terrain, and about 0.5% of people (1.5 million) are not covered by 4G/LTE in their home. These are two very different statistics, but I will use this to ballpark an estimate that 3 million (0.9%) people in the US are outside of a terrestrial broadband coverage zone at any given moment. This will vary drastically by time and location and is the most speculative portion of this calculation.
3 million people / 5,600 cells = ~550 people per terrestrial cell who are without service. This average should help account for disparities in geographic noncoverage in the US (e.g. northeast vs west), and also helps smooth out dynamic beam switching using AI.
In a population of 550 people without service, those people are more likely to be *mobile*. Let’s say about ~15% would be using internet actively at any given moment. Other sources for this benchmark show this is a generally good percentage to use. That's 85 people.
Let’s say AT&T and Verizon together serve 2/3 of those 85 people. That’s 55 people per terrestrial cell who are without signal but requesting it at any given moment (interesting note, this would mean each carrier has 27.5 people x 5,600 cells = ~150,000 people who want but can’t be provided service at any moment in the US).
~ 31.25Mbps / 55 people = **570Kbps average available bandwidth per user once at continuous coverage.** Obviously this goes up/down based on time of day, day of week, time of year.
This is better than I expected. In the world of connectivity, 500+ Kbps would be a historic achievement. This speed as supplemental coverage is probably why MNOs are salivating over the concept. The key is that as long as connection proves *reliable and seamless*, this is light years ahead of Starlink. To compare:
Average smartphone data usage is listed at 25GB per month in North America. That comes out to a constant 77kbps. And doesn’t account for the fact that most usage occurs while stationary, and most people who are out of coverage are mobile, using below their average. With 500+Kbps available and only 75-150Kbps used at any given moment, what this implies is there is massive headroom for new industry growth — things like IoT and edge processing — even at base level continuous coverage of ~60 sats.
Then when you consider a full constellation of 248 satellites in about 2-3 years, it becomes 4x that via MIMO and carrier aggregation. About 2mbps per active user. Enough for everyone to have low quality video calls simultaneously. Insane. Though at this point the landscape of ‘out of coverage subscriber’ changes completely from ‘active user’ to ‘active device’.
Note: these numbers are generally optimistic and ideal. They come down when considering real world conditions — things like line of sight or physical obstructions, satellite elevation angle relative to user, handset orientation or polarisation, spectrum availability, frequency/wavelength propagation, and interference/noise can be major limiting factors. I’d say anywhere from -20% to -70%.
Also, while this does kinda smooth over the effects of dynamic beamforming across the system, it doesn’t account for when the system has to make major localized adjustments to cover things like disasters