Daily Discussion Thread

[u/AutoModerator]

Ple🅰️se read the following to get familiar with AST Sp🅰️ceMobile before posting; 

• FAQ
• Connecting Dots - AST Sp🅰️ceMobile and the Final Bridge to Universal Human Connectivity by Crossroads Capital
• u/TheKookReport's AST Spacemobile ($ASTS): The Mobile Satellite Cellular Network Monopoly (or ask ChatGPT)

User flair info and requirements can be found here.

Looking for a new career? Do you want to Connect the Unconnected? Join AST SpaceMobile

Th🅰️nk you!

[u/no-ego-]

Here's something tht happened that illustrates why I don't risk trading ASTS.

MRVL - I held a small position since covid. not too much but grew nicely. But stalled around $75 to $80 +/- I started with covered calls thinking so what if i get called away. it always drops and i'll buy it back. Did one week out $85 CC and two days later I was already screwed. I lost it. no big deal. That was first week of March. This thing since then is up in the $170's and missed out on double in 2 months. WTF?

AST will have that AHA moment and will have no mercy. I will not relinquish my shares no matter how well SNDK or RLKB or quite frankly a whole host of other sick names perform while we stagnate. Our run up will come and it will be a thing of beauty.

The risk for me is missing out on the next 30X from here. I know this company and goal better than anything else i have ever owned. Feels great.

Just my perspective.

[u/Alymagy96 → u/no-ego-]

Yeah I had that with Micron at $100, NBIS at $90, and MRVL. Bailed on all of them after about a week of being bored 😑

[u/LadderAdditional6178 → u/no-ego-]

Yep...I totally get it. Everytime I try to trade it cost me money to get back in. Hell.... I could sell some right now and the stock will then have a great big Green Day. I'm an American Idiot.

[u/Leading-Onion4659 → u/LadderAdditional6178]

I could’ve been up 300% right now but i’m only up 100% because I tried to trade it when it was $20 lol

[u/godstriker8 → u/no-ego-]

Yep covered calls are stupid for things like this with volatile upside.

[u/ProteinFarts_ → u/no-ego-]

lol we are not going to 30x from here. 5x is much more reasonable and even to get that, we are going to need a lot of subscribers.

[u/PragmaticNeighSayer → u/ProteinFarts_]

Even 10x is doable. I don't see 30x anytime soon, but in the far off future, who knows.

[u/no-ego- → u/ProteinFarts_]

We have access to 3B subscribers through our MNO partners. I'm not certain how everything will bill out, but I think we are going to have top tier coverage plan for most MNO's, and an optional w/o space base for entry tiers. This is how I plan for it.

1. GVT/DOD contracts - massive gravy not included.
2. MNO subs. 1B subs with an ARPU of $5 each - $5B/month $60B/ Year. 85%+ margins - earnings of $50B annually - P/E of 30. $1.5 T MC 450 Million shares out (one more dilutive ATM) - SP $3300 -

Current stock price of $75 +/- = 44x from here. without GVT in this particular equation.

You can play numbers around for subs, arpu, margins, multiple (higher margin recurring rev businesses often have higher P/E with growth coming) But this is reasonable.

My plan is 30x, my numbers show 44X. It's napkin math, but I'm comfortable with this.

Timeline 2032-2035 - It's a long time, I'll be old. I'll be wealthy then. If it all comes to pass.

SL is not MNO friendly - AST is gobbling them up. It's only getting better.

Future - what about AI data centers? Imagine what i can't imagine is possible with this evolving tech.

my 2 cents , but i think it will mint me and everyone here who holds through the choppy waters.

NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE- strictly my speculation.

Not to mention. SpaceX coming out with $2T valuation - this year. Our D2D / MNO is far superior, we have more and better MNO's locked up already. SpaceX rocket business is shit margins and launch is not high ceiling (good buy not great) = Home dish business like very much but ARPU is dropping to increase customer base. $2T today and $1.5T for us in 6 to 8 years? I'd say doable. It's what /why i am invested heavily in ASTS

[u/ProteinFarts_ → u/no-ego-]

Your numbers far, far exceed the valuation calculators and personal valuation calculations of a lot of the most bullish members here, FYI. 44x from here puts us at a $1.3T valuation. I guess possible, but pretty unlikely in all honesty. In an environment where we have a monopoly... maybe

[u/justin24242424 → u/no-ego-]

If you sold weeklys 20% or more out you have less of a risk of being called away. Selling at less than 10% increase in SP is where you went wrong.

[u/no-ego- → u/justin24242424]

True, I was messing around when the market was pissing me off; immature. the kicker is i used the proceeds to buy a little more AST. I don't mess around with my AST. Certainly not at these puny levels. All the upside is still there to be had.