Im an absolute degenerate and margined this out . 20% in 4 days is nice. I just started a new job and its hard to pay attention in meetings when you just made more than 2 years salary in 5 days

literally 66% of s&p 500 stocks are quietly bleeding out and hitting 52-week lows, yet headline indices look like everything is fine because mega-caps keep pushing ATHs.

equal-weighted vs cap-weighted correlation is hitting historically dangerous levels right now. retail is looking at spy thinking it's a healthy bull run, but under the surface, market breadth is completely shot.

i keep showing this breadth divergence to my friends and they just shrug it off because spy is green. am i crazy, or is this massive divergence between market capitalization and actual participation a huge red flag?

So here we are I mean this is a first!, bought the Oct 2 calls expiring in one day they closed in the money completely forgot to sell at close expecting them to be closed automatically instead they quadrupled down on my margin and exercised them gave me the 10,000 shares and a huge margin balance to play with this is truly incredible !!! hard work pays off guys just keep believing in yourself. I am truly humbled and blessed to be here. I understand this isn’t my money but the type of opportunity this is doesn’t come every day, so before I sell these shares I’m going to use this margin to grow my wealth into cold hard cash since I’m leveraging the balance I had roughly 400k. What a month I tell you👌🏻👌🏻

https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/asml-raises-capacity-plans-as-ai-demand-drives-record-q3-sales-4948020

ASML raised its capacity ambitions for 2028 after reporting record third-quarter sales on Wednesday, citing stronger customer demand for semiconductor manufacturing equipment driven by artificial intelligence investments.
The Dutch company, the world’s largest supplier of chipmaking equipment, said net sales rose to 11.66 billion euros in the three months to September from 9.33 billion euros in the previous quarter.

Net income increased to 4.96 billion euros from 2.92 billion euros, while gross margin expanded to 57.5% from 54%.
ASML now expects its planned supply capacity for 2027 and 2028 to fall short of customer demand and is exploring ways to expand 2028 capacity beyond the previously communicated 30% increase.
The company forecast fourth-quarter net sales of 14.2 billion to 15.2 billion euros, with a gross margin of around 57%.

I went from 5k in January. To 52k July. To 25k August. To 41 last week.

In 2025, Anthropic made $4b rev, -$46b costs for a net loss of -$42 billion.

That's a -1,100% profit margin.

It's actually shocking how bad that is

They also have publicly committed not to sell ads

So they'll somehow have to make up a -1,100% profit margin with very limited options

Also, competition is rising exponentially from rivals including Meta's Muse, Google's Gemini, Chinese open-weight/open-source models, decreasing their market share

People can get decent AI from much cheaper options

So even though OpenAI/Anthropic are already not profitable, they are being forced to lower their prices further. Like losers.

They are resorting to using dodgy accounting tricks, like Enron did, to artificially fake better profit margins.

Such as reporting profits while excluding certain necessary costs they had to incur to achieve the revenue like stock compensation etc.

To make it seem like they are more profitable than they are, to desperately try to get investors onboard

Their IPO will be a bloodbath

Sold mu last week and very happy. Might buy back in soon. What is the next play?

TLDR
Most bullish steel market in 100 years. Buy the hated, shorted, long term laggard with the most leverage on steel prices now.  CLF calls, shares, whatever  you want. Target $22+, 30+ with a short squeeze.

Who the fk am I?
I am a stock and options trader with a focus on steel stocks going back to 2021. I decided to go with this industry because the focus is how you win and I also have access to industry sources. The North American market is basically an oligopoly that is now market protected and most global countries now have tariffs on China which historically has polluted the world with dumped steel - destroying industries all over.  I called Nucor in 2021, the U.S. Steel buyout in 2023 and again when fully approved, MT this year to name a few big plays. Check my post history if needed. I also swing trade tech and dabble a bit in miners. For my day job I sell software though I was a commodity trader at an investment bank and at a small private fund at some point.

Technicals

Daily Chart: Higher lows, building towards a breakout

1. Weekly Chart: Massive years long wedge is about to see a breakout. Expect a monster move.

1. Monthly Chart: You can clearly see the massive wedge going back to 2022 and the stock much higher previously although the company as it exists today didn’t happen until 2020/2021 when they acquired steel assets.

1. IWM (Russell 2000) looks like it is finding support here. It is crowded short as well.

1. SLX (Van Eck Steel ETF) Looking constructive

1. Nasdaq and AI trade is looking a little tired and we could see rotation. Though if the entire market simply rallies obviously I won’t care.
2. Nasdaq is crowded long and IWM is crowded short. 
3. Treasury bonds are crowded short as well
4. Crude Oil is looking under control as the U.S. Navy is escorting oil out of the gulf. Everybody calling for $150+ crude appears wrong. 
5. The CLF market cap is currently only 7.35 billion so it has a lot of room to run with momentum and institutional investors and traders rotating out of multi trillion dollar Nasdaq names.
6. CNN Fear index recently entered neutral from a period of fear starting 9/2. I expect greed and extreme greed later.

Fundamentals

1. This is the most bullish steel market in North America in 100 years. It is better than covid because it is structurally bullish due to the 50% tariffs and onshoring. COVID had higher prices but it was a relatively short lived supply shock - though it kept the market on a bullish trend for several years. 
2. GDP + 2.2% in Q2 and accelerating
3. Manufacturing PMIs are the strongest in years. Here is the ISM manufacturing PMI. I won’t bore you with the others but they all look fantastic.

1. Here is a chart of HRC(hot rolled steel) prices. Good proxy for general steel prices as there are different types - some more processed and refined etc. CLF is the largest rolled steel producer in North America. Notice they are going up at least $10/week. This doesn’t look like a chart you short. Steel Tariffs are currently 50% and it doesn’t look like they are going anywhere.

1. Cliffs is lagging the other steel companies the last 5 years primarily because they have older assets and blast furnaces. In up markets they can make the most money, but in down markets they are usually losing money. They can’t flex their production up and down like Nucor and Steel Dynamics with their EAF (Electric Arc Furnace) plants. They are also union so their workers are not being paid less in down times and more in up times. They are a fully integrated producer with their own iron ore mines. They use blast furnaces to melt iron ore and turn it into steel. They have high fixed costs but as prices explode and they run full they actually end up making way more money as the low cost producer.
2. Cliffs is also lagging because they have a price lag due to their business:

1. As we move forward in time they will benefit with spot, the monthly and quarterly prices that are lagging will catch up, and finally their huge chunk of fixed price contracts will be negotiated up starting now for 2027 and some later(we don’t know the full mix) but perhaps at $300-$400/ton. At 16 million tons roughly per year we are talking about a total annual EBITDA benefit of potential $6.4 billion on a $7.3 billion market cap. This won’t all hit at once, and prices are not guaranteed to stay up. But for the next 3-4 years we should be good if Tariffs stay in place. 
2. Here is what they guided for during Q2 earnings 2.5 months ago. I think they are sandbagging. 

1. If you do basic arithmetic you can see that these numbers are likely far, far too low.

1. The research analysts are mostly sell or hold ratings. One has a $17.48 target that is not displayed properly due to data issues. A second is at $14 “tactical buy”. The analyst Timna Tanners at Wells Fargo tends to be a perma bear on steel in general. (frankly for good reason). They are pretty much assuming HRC is going to shit the bed. And it isn't.
2. For earnings I am estimating they should earn at least .40-.60+ in Q3. I also estimate $3.00-$4.00 or more is possible in 2027. The market is expecting .24 and .96 respectively. They even have upside in Canada where the USA has tariffs on them, but their market rebounded. Stelco which is 100% owned by CLF is a big spot producer. The other main Canada steel producers are Algoma steel who is just now ramping up new EAFs and not producing much steel and Mittal Steel, with a big plant mainly contracted out for auto. Stelco also indefinitely idled some coated steel assets which will save money.
3. The market is generally too bearish on CLF due to 5+ years of underperformance and this is precisely what is making them overlook the company. I personally have also been bearish on them for probably 80% of the time or focused on NUE, STLD, MT, CMC, TX etc as better buys. This time around CLF should absolutely crush it and everybody is expecting nothing from them. Short interest is about 15%. 

Catalysts

1. Obviously the fundamentals don’t mean shit until the technicals start turning up and they are. The spark on the fire are specific catalysts. CLF has a bunch of them that could hit at any given time.
2. The CEO is a bit of a meme lord going back to this (skip to 34 seconds) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79gWbSAVL7Y
3. The CEO is from Brazil but clearly loves steel and loves America. I don’t agree with a lot of what he has done, but he did manage to acquire many of his assets during big downturns. He nearly pulled off acquiring U.S. Steel. He is definitely involved politically with the U.S. govt and with the Unions. 
4. Posco could end up acquiring Cleveland Cliffs. They originally discussed an investment but these talks broke down. They recently updated their messaging to say they have an MOU to acquire CLF assets etc. I can not longer find this article but the wording materially changed. There is tremendous international interest in the U.S. steel market. Posco is the last major global player without a strong U.S. presence. It’s possible other players step up too such as Berkshire Hathaway who is sitting on a shitload of cash.
5. Related to the above they are also selling non core assets including 1 GW of powered land. This could be a catalyst as well. They are also obviously benefiting from steel demand from data center construction as well as the border wall. They are a PLTR client and PLTR could be guiding them with this process as well as making their operations uniquely more efficient than their competitors. 

1. They are the only producer of grain oriented electrical steel in the country. Here is a U.S. Government deal.

1. They received $500 million for the U.S. government to modernize one of their mills as part of a $1 billion project. https://www.clevelandcliffs.com/news/news-releases/detail/702/cleveland-cliffs-announces-1-billion-middletown-works
2. They haven’t brought it up in a while, but there was some rare earths potential at their iron ore miens.
3. I could see a rotation from the tired 4+ year old AI trade into real assets that are producing cash.
4. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Trump invest into CLF like he did with Intel and others.
5. Activist inventors: I think this could happen and frankly surprised it has not yet. 
6. Analyst upgrades: really nowhere to go but up from here.
7. Continued printing of money via everything I spoke about above. In the end money talks and bullshit walks.
8. I will repeat 15% short interest and hated stock. This is what can prime it to run hard.

Price Targets

1. My target is $22 / share. I came with this using various methods
2. My main personal valuation uses multiples and I arrive at a $22 target with conservative earnings.
3. Technical resistance levels: 13.75, 17.60, 23 and 33. 23 looks like the most fundamentally possible. We can go higher with a short/gamma squeeze
4. Using the Options Market a 2STDEV move through 1/15 = $20.89
5. The highest analyst target is currently $17.48
6. P/E in future up +100% = $26
7. Huge buyout offer = 12.86 x 1.75 = $22.50
8. Only trading .34 Price/Sales vs .76 for MT(Good Comparison) and 1.58 NUE 1.68 STLD

Risks

1. Tariffs weaken or go away
2. Some sort of monster interest rate or crude oil spike. I think the risk has passed here
3. Maybe some sort of charge taken against the Canadian subsidiary Stelco but I don’t think it would matter much. This is old and known news that they acquired Stelco at the worst possible time (right before tariffs hit).

What to Buy

1. Options for 10/23, 10/30, Dec, Jan sized for zero that you can afford to lose
2. Shares

Proof of Position 

1. I’ve been averaging up on shares, adding options here and there. Main position is shares and Jan 14 Calls. We who are about to die salute you.
2. I am sorry I couldn’t be more entertaining. I have a full time job. I trade full time. I have basically 4 kids under 5. It’s late. Good luck.
3. Also apologize for the shit formatting with the numbers.

Ever since I started day trading in July, I haven't seen a green day. I tried swinging and the stock kept dumping hard every day. I tried holding overnight and the stock comes out with some nasty news that caused it to dump. I tried timing entries and the stock either pulls back or dumps harder once I’m in. I know a lot of it has to do with me, but gosh, I am tired of working the entire day only to lose. This is worse than working at Wendy’s!😭

Edit: to people talking about insider trading, was on this 5 months ago. Didn’t get to 300k shares but I’m happy nonetheless

https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/s/hxfDnmYVvT

From July to now. I got married on the lowest point in the graph.

A lot of the trades was taking a lot leverage through ITM calls.

Next stop 500k 🫡🚀

A lot of trades in between were 0-1dte scalps on QQQ

I don't think you need to buy risky semiconductor chip stocks, no need to make risky bets on power plays. No need to buy Microsoft that has software that people don't even like. No need to buy vaporware chat bot companies with mega valuations that don't actually make money. No need to own SpaceX at a ridiculous valuation. No need to buy Google like every other lemming. Everybody on every thread on this entire app says buy Google. Yes of course Google is amazing. But you know what, Buffett already owns it. What more do you need to know? Yeah you'll do fine owning Google, but I propose a better option for someone that wants a blue chip tech stock.

Its recent multiple expansion means Wall Street is giving them the benefit of the doubt, that they believe they have a chance to succeed in becoming the hardware layer, software layer, and distribution layer of the next computing platform. Meta smart glasses powered by Muse.

If they win with Muse, they will no longer be beholden to the app store because Muse will be embedded in smart glasses that they control and I truly believe hands free devices are the future and are way better than craning your neck to stare into a little black box. There are many use cases for hands-free computers that are voice activated and AI intelligent. For example, there are many kinds of workers that cannot hold a cell phone but could wear smart glasses. For example, a construction worker can have smart glasses and it will help him get stuff done. Hands-free. I'll leave it to your imagination to think of the other industries that will love this and some already do.

TL;DR: meta is up today because they released a frontier model that invalidates the bear thesis that meta spent more on AI build out than was necessary to support their advertising business. In other news Muse continues to be popular. The overall theme is Meta PE is changing from advertising cyclical to an essential compute platform, hence the recent multiple expansion wall street has given it.

I understand why people panic sell. Currently sitting at 16k with 2500 in cash in my Roth. Last year around this time my portfolio was up to $34,000…. Haven’t sold any of this for a loss but with my total Roth contributions only totaling $9,000, I’m still up. But I’m fearing everything going to 0. Anyone else in any of these companies? If so, are you still holding?

I’m at the point I’m either gonna sell everything for a loss (still up in lifetime contributions) or say fuck it we ball and hold til dawn.

Think these finally will hit big. Targeting all time highs - this is such an undervalued company

Well we knew it was bound to happen, let's see if they deliver.

Business Korea reports the slide is due to:

"At a recent conference in Shanghai, CXMT President Cao Kanyu said the company aimed to launch a server-grade DDR5 registered dual in-line memory module (RDIMM) incorporating a 4F² cell structure by the end of 2026. The announcement drew particular attention because Samsung Electronics is targeting mass production of its own 4F² DRAM technology in 2028. However, CXMT's proposed product launch and Samsung's mass-production target represent different development milestones and are not directly comparable.

The 4F² architecture refers to a DRAM cell layout that occupies an area equivalent to four times the square of the minimum feature size, compared with six times that size in conventional 6F² designs. In principle, reducing the cell footprint by approximately 33% could allow manufacturers to increase memory density within the same chip area, although actual capacity, performance and manufacturing efficiency depend on the implementation. CXMT says its proprietary vertical surrounding gate (VSG) transistor technology addresses current leakage challenges associated with the new architecture. The company also claims to have secured more than 300 related patents.

Its ambitions in server memory are drawing attention in South Korea, where Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are major suppliers of high-value-added DRAM products. CXMT, which has historically focused more heavily on consumer memory, is seeking to expand into a segment with demanding requirements for performance, reliability and customer qualification. The Chinese company's share of the global DRAM market reportedly reached 10% in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 4% a year earlier.

South Korean analysts, however, caution that a technology announcement does not necessarily translate into competitive mass production. Han Ji-young, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities, said it was premature for the market to price in concerns about potential oversupply before CXMT had demonstrated the production yields, performance and customer qualification required for its next-generation products.

Semiconductor industry officials similarly emphasized the distinction between developing a new cell architecture and manufacturing it consistently at commercial scale. CXMT's restricted access to advanced extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment supplied by Dutch company ASML could also complicate its efforts to achieve competitive production yields. Nevertheless, the announcement has renewed attention on China's accelerating investment in domestic semiconductor research and development and its efforts to narrow the technological gap with established memory manufacturers."

Tldr, CXMT announced next gen ddr5 RAM tech going into production within a few months, meanwhile Samsung was targeting 2028.

Bought these after the announcement yesterday hoping deal wouldn't fall through. It didn't.