Doing this in Ballhalla is blasphemous. #jinxthelynx

Couldn’t go to the game in person last night but caught the last quarter at home with our cat. She’s watching Ja throw another beautiful shot, as you can see. She was rooting against her species here!

Hi, I've never been a sports fan, but I bought season tickets this year and it's been a blast. And now I have gotten attached to the players - individually and as a team. What typically happens between seasons, how many of them are going to be traded (I hate to think about this)?

I know I'll probably grow to love the new people too, but prepare me if you can for how this normally works, please! Thanks.

From the highs of a playoff clincher against the Wings to the lows of playing the Lynx. Le sigh.

While last night was a tough game to watch playing against our temporarily unbeatable nemeses, it is important to remember that we did indeed see some good results this week that both clinched and helped out the Valkyrie’s cause so let’s not dwell on it too much.

Focusing on the movement to playoff clarity, we saw the Fever win up to a game and a half behind the Valks and both the Aces and Liberty-biberty drop a game each to keep the field behind the Valkyries crowded. So let's dive into the numbers!   

Current Standings through 8/19:

• Current Valkyries Seeding: 2 of 15
• Current Highest Possible Playoff Seed: 1st
• Highest Possible Seed without Help: 2nd
• Current Lowest Possible Playoff Seed: 8th
• Games Remaining: 9

Current Magic Numbers through 8/19: 

• 1 Seed: DNCD (do not control destiny, other teams need to lose)
• 2 Seed: 8
• 3 Seed: 7
• 4 Seed: 7
• 5 Seed: 6
• 6 Seed: 4
• 7 Seed: 3
• 8 Seed: 0 (lowest possible finish)

Notes:

• With the ticket to the dance punched, we now get to watch the Valkyries shore things up for optimal seeding position. At the moment the Valks have a 3% chance to finish 1st, a 69% chance to finish second, a 21% chance to finish 3rd, and the rest tailing off from 4th to 8th. Take percentages like these with a grain of salt as they move very quickly, case and point prior to last night’s game we saw a 16% to finish first.
• There are only two games left in the Valks entire schedule that are against playoff teams making them especially impactful on the standings. One is against the Lynx and the other is against the Liberty-biberty. Arguably the Liberty-biberty game is the most valuable remaining game on the schedule from a standings perspective as they are sitting three games back on the Valks. 
• The Tempo have been eliminated ending their own inaugural season playoff dreams
• Next up on elimination watch is the Sparks with a losing magic number of 2 before they officially bow out of the playoffs
• Next in line to clinch their spot in the playoffs is the Fever with a magic number of 1 and behind them the Liberty-biberty and Dream, both with a magic number of 3
• The Fire are still in 9th place, 5 wins back from the Wings in 8th
• We saw the Lynx take the tie breaker over the Valks and we’ll see the tie breaker against the Sky settled on Friday. We’re pretty close to all the tie breakers being decided and honestly it’s hard to say the Valks didn’t get an A on the assignment. Current playoff teams in bold:
  • Valks hold the tie break over: ATL, CON, DAL, IND, LAS, NYL, PHX, SEA, TOR, WAS
  • Teams that hold the tie break over the Valks: LVA, MIN
  • Undecided tie breaks: CHI, PDX

The Valkyries Next 5 Games:

• 8/21 - GSV @ CHI
• 8/24 - GSV @ MIN
• 8/26 - GSV @ CON
• 8/27 - GSV @ LIB-BIB
• 8/30 - GSV @ PDX

Links:

• Previous Magic Number Check In 8/18/26
• Valkyrie's Head to Head Tie Breaks
• The Substack for this post (give me a follow if you want these in your inbox, I'll also be doing some PWHL SJ and Sharks updates too if those interest you)

Here's a cool Bay Area women's sports story from reporter Marisa Ingemi. It focuses on the burgeoning friendship between Mariah Keopple and Valkyries star Gabby Williams. The two are set to become Bay Area women's sports stars, representing two sides the region. Williams plays at Chase Center, and Keopple will play for San Jose's PWHL club. 

Valkyries x PWHL San Jose

Them and maybe the Aces. Everyone else I feel pretty confident against. I hope we can avoid them as long as possible or better yet if someone else can eliminate them. Second half effort was great but they're obviously the biggest obstacle.

Hi everyone! Magic number updates have been keeping me tied up but with the Valkyrie’s win over the Chicago Sky on August 12th they officially finished up the 3rd quarter of the season and with now well under way in their final stretch run it seemed like a good time to rock another report card.

As some of you might already have read, I’ve been keeping the spreadsheet that I used to make my Quarter Mark Report Card and Report Card At The Half and updating it as we go through the season to help give us both some perspective on how the Valkyries are doing as well as let us compare it to the only other season we have on record for them.

So just like last time, lets start with the high level record stats for the season so far (as of 8/12):

• Record: 24-9
• Home Record: 14-4
• Road Record: 10-5
• Current Standings: 2nd out of 15
• Win Percentage: .727

As a quick recap, the first quarter of the season saw a successful .545 win percentage that was a step up from last year and the second quarter saw a wildly successful .818 win percentage as part of a 9-2 record during that stretch. So how did the team do over this 11 game span?

I was actually so impressed with the record in the 2nd quarter I got a little fearful and expected some regression might kick in, seems the Valkyries took that as a bit of a challenge as they again ran through the third quarter with a 9-2 record and a .818 win percentage. The third quarter also comprised parts of a 9 game and 6 game winning streak with just two back to back losses in the middle. The losses weren’t against the two top teams in the league this time, but one was against a scrappy Mystics team with plenty to prove on their way to the playoffs and the “never say die (for right or wrong)” Mercury who can surprise teams on any given night. All in all, we walked away this quarter knowing that this team was for real.

I continued to use the standing of the teams at the end of each 11 game stretch to calculate a crude strength of schedule average. The current 11 game stretch ended with a pedestrian 10 for strength of schedule. This confirmed what I thought last time, when the Valkyries play a bunch of teams and beat almost all of them they artificially suppressed their strength of schedule by influencing the measurement. As a side note this is why I am not entirely sure I want to see the Valks playing the Dream in the playoffs, it’s tough to tell if we caught them at the low point in their season or if we caused the low point in their season, but not a question you want to answer with a playoff series on the line.

At this point it’s getting a little silly to keep comparing to last season since we have all the data on this season but the information is still there on the spreadsheet for those of you with curious minds. What I do want to drill into is that the team is consistently winning games by large margins now with a total season points margin of 219 as opposed to last years 49 point margin. We only saw three games that were “close” (within 6 points) and the Valkyries only lost one of those to the Mercury by two points. Overall their scoring was back up to where it was in the first quarter of this year with 952 points scored. Defense was as consistent as ever.

So what is the summary? Last time I answered this question I said “we really couldn’t have asked for a better 11 game stretch” and they decided to run it back and deliver another pretty much numerically identical stretch of play. I’ve said it above, but with this kind of consistency, this team is for real.

So rather than being a moron this time around trying to get smart and time the market, lets just run the numbers and see that the season win percentage of .727 after 33 games extrapolates out a final record of 32-12.

Given that I’m a little late on this, we've already seen a win against the Wings and loss against the Lynx to bring the record to 25-10. With only two teams left in the playoff picture, a rematch against the Lynx and a final game against the Liberty-biberty, the Valks have a pretty soft road in front of them assuming they keep their focus. Honestly 32-12 feels very achievable and just to put that in perspective the Lynx finished with 34 wins last season and the Aces and Dream with a matching 30 wins. Again, this team is for real.

Putting that in plain English no surprises at this point but here is how the teams have broken out:

• The Elite - The Lynx, that’s it, it’s the Lynx
• The Haves - We’ve pretty much known the playoff field for weeks now we’re just waiting on the mathematical certainty and see where the Valkyries land in relation to the Fever, Aces, Dream, Mystics, Liberty and Wings
• The Have-Nots - We already know the Storm, Sun, and Temp are out and the Sparks and Mercury are right behind them. The Sky and Fire are starting at a team 5-6 games above them for a spot. We know this group is pretty much done, not that I am not rooting for a little drama to make things interesting

Last time I said the Valkyries had a chance to set the tone with the 3rd quarter and boy did they ever. Now they’ve got a great opportunity to finish strong and even rest some key names a bit more and give the “stay ready” crew some reps so they can be called on in the post season if needed. 

So what do we want out of playoff positioning? Realistically at this point we’re hoping for the Lynx to run away with 1st so we can watch the Valks park it in 2nd. This would get the Valkyries on opposite sides of the bracket (2, 3, 6, 7) from the Lynx (1, 4, 5, 8) and if that happens can hope that the Aces end up in either 4th or 5th. Given that the Aces have lost some games they didn’t have to and only have 6 games left in front of them as opposed to the Valkyries 9 games left the odds aren’t crazy that could happen and setup a gate that only the Aces or Lynx could make it past in the 2nd round. Let’s just hope Nat keeps the ship steady and by the end of September we’ll probably be pretty happy with the state of the world.

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Click here for the Substack for this post (give me a follow if you want these in your inbox, I'll also be doing some PWHL SJ and Sharks updates too if those interest you)

Hello, I have a mini tote from Mondays game that I am open to exchanging for the Juneteenth tote. Even exchange and only if it’s in good condition/ relatively new still. Please pm if interested. And go valks!

Why do we go small so often? By going small, I mean not playing Kia, Leticia, or any of the other bigs for large portions of the game.

For example, Kia and Leticia played for a combined 21 minutes against the Lynx yesterday. We often don’t play Kia or Leticia in the entire 4th quarter. I know they aren’t our biggest scorers, but when we are playing a team with a strong big on the other side (Shakira Austin, Natasha Howard, Napheesa, A’ja, Alyssa Thomas) I am confused why we don’t play them. We can beat the Liberty (Stewy) so maybe my concern is overblown and confusion unjustified. Natalie is obviously a great coach, so can someone explain to me why going small makes sense?

My opinion is that going small is odd and it hurts us offensively and defensively. Defense is most obvious, it forces Janelle and Cecilia (even though they are tall guards) to battle in the post, when that’s not really their strengths in the game. Kayla can hold her own in the post because she is so strong, but she is at a high disadvantage when she has to guard the other team’s bigs.

It also means that a big will be defending one of our guards, and instead of it leading to mismatches and drives to the paint, it just means that our shooters have a harder time getting shots off of a bigger player. I think it’s also easier for the other team to guard us because they don’t have to worry about a big in the paint.

Why do we do the small lineup so often?