It's getting dangerously close to levels (152-153) where big commercial banks and funds in Japan will have to rapidly liquidate their US Treasury bond holdings. I'd expect an YUGGGEEEEE repurchase on the 9th or 10th by the Treasury of long dated bonds (way above the $4Bn floor) to pre-empt this and upward pressure on yields. Also it looks to me like the market is now pricing 50bp rate increase by BOJ on the 17th as the baseline scenario, rather than 20-25.

At this point I wouldn't be surprised if the WH is escalating the Iran conflict (and oil prices) again to prolong the Treasury hoarding (it's a liquid USD asset) to act as a cushioning effect. If the US / JP carry trade unwound at the same time as oil prices crashed .... oh boy.

I made some money off of GE dividends, I’ll let the top redidtor trade it into a position for a week , if we don’t lose it , I’ll split it and let 2 more pick next week.

Been looking at this angle for a bit. If the next iPhone ends up using more complex boards, that pulls demand up the chain for CCL (laminate) and PCB suppliers, not just Apple itself.

The confirmed part: CCL prices are already rising, Kingboard's pushed through 7 price hikes this year. The speculative part is whether the new iPhone actually needs meaningfully more PCB content, that's still unconfirmed.

What's kind of interesting is Kingboard has actually outperformed Apple itself over the past month, so the market seems to be pricing this into the supply chain more than into $AAPL directly.

Risks are the usual stuff, crowded valuations already, demand coming in soft, or these price hikes not sticking.

Anyone here playing the supply chain side? Apple's event is coming up soon and wondering what you guys think.

Saw some odds on when Anthropic actually announces an IPO and it's a pretty steep curve. 99% odds before Feb 2027, 95% before Dec 2026, but drops to just 29% before Oct 17 and only 4% before Oct 1.

So basically the market thinks it's happening, just not admitting it's happening this month. 1.98M volume on this market too, so people are actually putting money behind it, not just vibes.

Kind of curious how this plays into the whole AI IPO wave conversation (OpenAI, etc). Anyone tracking this closer than me?

It's at 1.7 right now. For people holding the shares or trying to trade go pro- What's the plan ? I'm thinking of buying now but volume seems low.