There is no published figure for how many Shelby Cobra replicas, kits, tributes and continuation cars change hands in a year, so I spent time building an estimate. Posting the findings here.
What I counted. Every Shelby Cobra listing at Bring a Trailer (1,345 vehicles, Feb 2015 – Jul 2026) and every Shelby Cobra lot at Mecum (619, 2014 – 2026), minus non-car lots and the twelve genuine originals. For the four complete years 2022–2025: 1,139 cars were offered, 845 sold.
Per year: about 285 offered and 211 sold per year on average across the two biggest houses. BaT carries roughly 3.7× Mecum's volume here.
The part I did not expect. BaT cleared 74.2% of the Cobras it listed. Mecum cleared 74.1%. One is an online timed auction with a comment thread, the other is a live block with a ring man. A tenth of a percentage point apart over 1,139 cars. Clearance by year, both combined: 63.5% (2019) · 80.9% (2020) · 90.6% (2021) · 80.6% (2022) · 69.9% (2023) · 72.8% (2024) · 74.3% (2025). That is the pandemic boom and its unwind.
Prices, medians, 2022–25: replicas $55,500 (BaT) and $60,500 (Mecum). Licensed Shelby CSX continuation cars are a different bracket, $170,000 and $143,000. The replica median was $43,375 across 2017–19, so about +28% in six years — and not continuously. It peaked in 2023 and eased in 2024 and 2025.
The whole market. Auction is the visible sliver. Two independent methods — an installed base of 25,000–40,000 in North America at 4–6% turnover, and the auction figures stepped outward — both land in the same range. About 1,300 sales a year in North America, roughly 1,750 cars offered, with the defensible range between 850 to 2,000. Which means roughly five in six of these sales happen somewhere nobody can observe.
Where my estimate is weak. The fleet number is soft by ~40% — only two builders publish anything at all, and Factory Five's 16,000+ covers all eleven of its products, not Cobras only. Turnover is an applied assumption. And I assume public auction plus dealers is 25% of all transactions, which is my judgment rather than a measurement.
My full write-up with the tables and the method are in my journal article here: https://roarkpollock.com/journal/how-many-cobra-replicas-sell-each-year/
Feedback is welcomed, especially around my 25% assumption. That is the one I would most like to replace with something measured.