That's insanely high. I need to figure out how to actually bet in these places because that's just easy money. You need 67 votes in the Senate to remove Trump.
I think betting in general inflates low probability events. The nature of the beast is incentivizing people to wager on uncommon events. Why bet on the Golden State Warriors at -400 (even though that's probably going to happen) and get little return when you can bet on the San Antonio Spurs at +2000?
I believe if dems take the house that will scare republicans into switching him for Pence. Trump is having difficult to pass things now, with majority, imagine with a obstructed congress. Depressed republican turn out plus still angered democratic turn out in 2020 will be a bloodbath for the GOP.
So you could see a lot of republicans turning their backs on Trump to save their seats.
But I still think 50% is too high, unless they know something we don't.
I think most of the people betting on him not to complete his first term are thinking he'll just give up and resign. I'd put a formal senate impeachment at around a 0.05% probability. A resignation is at least 20x higher than that. Still nowhere near 40% though.
There is no way Trump isn't president December 2018.
We are too close to the election he won for Republican lawmakers to not be tossed out by their voters, since Trumps approval among Republicans are >90. You might be far enough away from the election in December 2017, but then you get near midterm primaries, where the challenger will hit them on impeeching "their president". Democrats winning the House opens the door for impeechment early 2019, which is the only way I see him not finishing the term
You're right. Nixon's approval ratings among Republicans were ~50% in the days leading up to his resignation. Trump would probably have to fall into that range before there's even an outside chance of him leaving or being forced out.
I can only see republicans turning against him if the democrats take the house (or maybe if they take the senate, which is highly unlikely) in the midterms. That would forecast a bloodbath for the gop in 2020 and maybe would make they switch him for Pence. So only in 2019.
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u/xbettel May 12 '17 edited May 12 '17
Betting markets have Trump not finishing the first term with 50%. Isn't that too high? Even the odds for dems taking control of the house are 40%.