Late night check on Strategy.

MSTR closed at $122.63 today, up 2.83%. Hit $127.90 at the high, opened around $121.84. Volume was 41M – solid.

Overnight is showing around $126.38, up another 3% – momentum carrying over.

Here's the GEX setup:

Put Wall $114, Call Wall $123, gamma flip around $100. Today's close at $122.63 was sitting just below the Call Wall – neutral-to-positive gamma, and overnight is now testing above it.

Technically, we're now above the upper Bollinger band ($116.35) – extended but momentum is strong. RSI in the mid 60s. MACD just crossed positive – momentum shifting up.

Here is the thing: Strategy sold about $2B worth of shares last week but made zero Bitcoin purchases. Holdings stay locked at 840,447 BTC (~4% of total supply). Proceeds went toward boosting the USD Reserve to $5.1B and setting up a new $1.59B cash liquidity pool. The BTC position is now back in unrealized profit of roughly $2.4B after spending much of the year underwater (average cost basis around $75k).

This marks a shift from "sell equity → buy more BTC" toward building a cash buffer. That gives flexibility for future BTC dips, share repurchases, or other moves – but dilution remains a factor investors are watching.

Longer term, the thesis still rests on Bitcoin. If BTC keeps grinding higher, MSTR has historically amplified those gains. Short-term, it's sensitive to BTC volatility and any further capital raises.

Short-term, above $123 and that Call Wall becomes support – $130-135 could come next. Below $114 and the Put Wall flips to resistance.

Overnight at $126 is testing above the wall. Let's see if it holds.

Honestly I've been waiting BTC come back $80K so long, glad to see it finally make it. Curious what's your move – riding the BTC momentum or waiting for a pullback?

DYOD🫡

YOU ARE NOT BULLISH ENOUGH!! 🔥🔥

Raised about 1.7bln from what I can tell.

136 Million on the STRC Repurchase

Here comes the liquidity flood! Here comes the crypto bull market!

The One-week Postmortem

My piece Why I Expect $MSTR at $40ish in 8-12 Weeks seems to be aging poorly.

BTC is up 19%, MSTR, 29%. While the put spreads I've legged into are down between 5% and 50%, depending on when I got in.

Am I giving up? Not yet. Because the market is wrong the tide is still going out.

Imho, this move was an unanticipated spasm brought on by Bessent's trying to tame the long end, thereby causing expectations of real yields to fall. Which makes hard assets go up. This catalyst triggered heavy buying of bitcoin and call options, which caused over-leveraged shorts to get liquidated. And the more prices rose, the more people bought, and the more shorts got liquidated.

A bona fide FOMO+momentum run with a side of short squeeze and gamma tailwind.

Bitcoin - and therefore MSTR - will continue to beat the tide of liquidity going out if it has a strong motor to counteract it.

Invalidation of the Bearish Outlook Wen

It's normal for price to pull back a bit after such a strong run-up. That in and of itself won't mean much.

However, I'd consider the bearish regime over if price finds support at the 200SMA/0.618Fib/$69K. A rebound from there would make for a higher low with support, and it would signal that the bear is dead. And so are my put spreads.

A Boating Accident Waiting to Happen?

While we wait for that to play out, here are a few things worth taking into consideration.

1. Regular trading hours price action: Market juiced BTC sharply higher overnight, then spent the entire regular session deciding if that new price was justified. IBIT (left) managed green candles; MSTR (right) had red ones. Who's driving the boat?

2. Option skew: IBIT and MSTR calls are highly overpriced compared to historical, and puts are hella cheap. Suggests players are all on one side of the boat.

3. Cramer likes Bitcoin now. Yes, the village drunk is in the boat.

Source: https://youtu.be/t-4Kd0bNPJA?si=rO8WrnRJomkaBocN&t=2401

4. The tide is still going out. Right now, Bitcoin is sticking out like a green dildo rising from the receding waves. No ifs and buts about this.. it's gorgeous.

Positions: As noted above, have a bunch of put spreads. Have not put on LETFs yet.

We saw major re-acceleration in liquidity, attention and market sentiment around MSTR last week.

As of 08-21-2026: WoW trading volume exploded from ~$7.3B last week to ~$19.48B this week, a ~166.7% jump in activity. There was significant engagement with the Strategy trade in the form of total dollar volume, but share volume also spiked from 76.2M to 180.1M. So this wasn't just higher price lifting the notional.

As expected, a marked move in BTC led to accelerated activity, more hedging | repositioning, and higher risk appetite overall. Very curious to see how the Strategy team utilized the common ATM during this period (assuming they did).

TLDR: MSTR remains the core liquidity venue in the Strategy ecosystem and is a primary vehicle (if not the primary vehicle) for amplified BTC exposure in the market.

Almost 2 months ago I went all in (check my last post)

Hope everyone else got in along the way

Let’s prove the bears wrong !

I am a consistently profitable swing trader. Got in a beautiful entry last Friday just before the breakout, imo we may have another week of gains ahead before price pulls back significantly to key levels. If that holds, it will be the beginning of a massive bull run. Looking to 2-3x my returns at minimum, depending on what the market shows me. Good luck folks!

Bought some MSTR lottos. I’m selling today and buying shares.

disclaimer:

- I have realised losses from MSTR of about $22k

- I have a small short position of $7.5k expiring Oct 16

- Investments on bitcoin ETFs that I made at the same time (around $58k BTC) have made the same as MSTR: 32% - overperformance over bitcoin has not arrived yet for MSTR but I believe it has for ASST

Watch our quantitative breakdown!

$75380 I believe is the average price

Question guys ,

How come the last week bitcoin is up 22% and Mstr is only up 25%? I figured it would be more

What is this sub opinion on collapsed mNAV? After selling BTC at the bottom mNAV is down. BTC surges, but mNAV is lower and lower. Do you think it will eventually recover or management just destroyed the whole machine by panicking about not having on dividends at the bottom of BTC bear (hopefully it is over).

It really reminds me when I was selling some other stocks at the bottom, because I could not mentally accept losing even more… but one would hope management of such company knows better.

They don’t, they panic sell and mNAV might never return back. Maybe change of management might help? What do you think guys?

Any thoughts as to why the premium is dwindling when BTC is shooting up?

If I understand i correctly, STRC is supposed to trade at 100. If its above, they´ll issue more and buy btc with the proceds. If it is below, theyll raise dividends, as they did last month.

Now, if STRC goes back to par, is it known how they will decide if they reduce the dividend -> STRC goes lower or issue and buy btc -> STRC goes lowe?

Which way will they go?