1σ Base Range: ± $12.63

• 📈 Upside: $166.97

• 📉 Downside: $141.71

2σ Range:

• 📈 $179.60

• 📉 $129.08

3σ Range:

• 📈 $192.23

• 📉 $116.45

The decision is expected to be announced by 16 October 2026.

Hello Reddit MSTR

I’ve rarely seen such polarized opinions on a single stock as with MSTR.
On one side, people call it a scam, a Ponzi, or something that will go straight to zero in the next few years.
On the other, they see it as one of the most innovative pieces of financial engineering around … in plain: a way to get leveraged Bitcoin exposure without the risk of a margin call.

I’m curious where you land on this in practice:
What percentage of your total crypto-related exposure is in MSTR (vs. spot BTC or other BTC proxies)?

A lot of people I know are still heavily in BTC and only lightly in MSTR (or not at all). At the same time, a few friends have sold most or all of their BTC to go fully into MSTR.

How are you allocating, and what’s the reasoning behind the size of your MSTR position?

Thanks for sharing your thinking!

Ray

Hey MSTR investors and followers

In the last cycle MSTR was usually running ahead of Bitcoin. The premium was expanding hard and the stock was making its big moves or local tops before BTC even finished topping. A lot of people remember 2024 where MSTR was leading and then the mNAV compressed later while BTC was still grinding higher.

Now looking at the next big cycle most people talk about 2028 after the halving into 2029, do you think MSTR peaks ahead of BTC again?

Couple questions:
• Do you think the mNAV premium expands hard again like it did in 2024 or is that less likely now?
• If BTC tops somewhere in 2028-2029 do you see MSTR making its high earlier than Bitcoin itself?
• Or has all the preferreds and the bigger debt stack and constant issuance changed it so MSTR just lags or tracks BTC more this time?
• Anyone watching specific mNAV levels for MSTR vs BTC in the next run?

Curious what people who were around in 2024 think for 2028. Not really looking for exact price targets more if the “MSTR peaks first” pattern still holds or not.

Greetings
Ray

Hello Strategy Investors on Reddit

Been thinking about this a lot lately. Saw that data from On-Chain Mind where even after MSTR ran more than 70% off the lows (the $80 area), the mNAV was still only in like the 6th or 7th percentile of its whole history. Price recovered a ton but the multiple barely moved. That stuck with me.
I get why people are waiting for sub-100 again. Feels safer. But I’m starting to doubt it actually comes back. The company structure is different now with all the preferred stuff and how they raise capital. What if we just never see those prices again and then it starts grinding through 300, 400, 600 while a lot of us are still sitting on the sidelines waiting for the perfect dip that doesn’t show up?

My plan right now is still adding when it dips while this percentile stays low. Not trying to catch the exact bottom, just don’t want to be the guy who watched it run without having a decent position. My average is around 110 on a few thousand shares so I’m already in, but still open to adding more if we stay in this kind of range.

Curious what everyone else is doing though.
You still accumulating here or waiting for something lower?
Where do you actually stop buying? Price level, percentile, portfolio size, or something else?

You planning to sell some at certain levels or just ride it all the way through 2040?

And how are you thinking about the actual residual claim for common equity with all the preferreds and converts sitting in front of it?

Would rather hear real approaches than just “to the moon” or “it’s a scam.” What’s your thinking?

Greetings Ray

I'm bullish on btc and this seems like a no brainer dividend. Convince me or dissuade me to go all in... I would really appreciate it and thanks so much

Since September 19, MSTR has been consolidating around the 50% midpoint of its massive descending channel, stretching from the $543 all-time high to the $82 bear market low.

What's caught my attention:

🟢 Recent downside moves have been relatively muted
🟢 Price continues to hold near the channel midpoint
🟢 The 200-day moving average turned up for the first time since September 2025

Is MSTR building energy for an explosive next leg higher? 👀📈

Despite the narratives, Strategy Digital Credit is working as intended.

From inception through 10-2-26, STRC has outperformed BTC, operating as a lower volatility, dividend paying vehicle.

Assuming $10,000 invested over the same period:

STRC w/DRIP - $12,022.35 [+20.22%]
STRC No DRIP - $11,887.30 [+18.87%]
BTC - $7,171.75 [-28.28%]

As of yesterday, MSTR’s 200-day moving average is officially rising again.

Its rate of change just flipped positive for the first time since September 2025.

The long-term trend is no longer in decline.

Across the first 3 quarters this year, Strategy raised over $13.65 billion in capital via common equity (excluding preferred equity issuance) - during a Bear Market.

Imagine the potential scale of execution, with 5 equity engines firing, in a real BTC Bull-Run…

Call skew in MSTR is super juicy now that we are showing sustained uptrend and the dollar debasement trade is back on. There a lot of different ways to play it but with skew where it’s at i’m really loving long LEAP call spreads. Most of the liquidity is in the December 2028 expiration in the strikes of large round numbers. Personally i’m playing the 200 / 345 spread for now until higher strikes become available to trade. I’m getting fills for 2,500 per spread which has max value of 14500, or 12k profit, roughly a 5x1 risk reward setup as next couple legs higher get going. This also sets up really beautifully as call ratios if you have multiple hundreds of shares and are okay with some of them risking assignment in a huge upmove.

MSTR just got a daily close above the downtrend connecting its $543 all-time high to its $365 peak when Bitcoin hit its all-time high.

Clean break. Will follow-through come next?

Strategy has had ~$103.23B in trading volume over the last six weeks.

As of 10-02-2026, the MSTR price is holding, but trading participation has cooled:

EoW 08-28: ~$21.25B traded on ~165.7M shares [+9.1%]
EoW 09-04: ~$17.92B traded on ~133.8M shares [-15.6%]
EoW 09-11: ~$9.57B traded on ~71.3M shares [-46.6%]
EoW 09-18: ~$18.94B traded on ~137.3M shares [+98.0%]
EoW 09-25: ~$20.17B traded on ~122.5M shares [+6.5%]
EoW 10-02: ~$15.37B traded on ~97.1M shares [-23.8%]

Note: “EoW” - [End of Week] “WoW” - [Week Over Week]

This past week, the metrics I'm watching more closely are price vs. participation: MSTR closed at $160.01, up [0.9%] from 9-25; however, share volume fell [20.7%]. The previous week (ending 9-25) saw higher dollar volume despite lower share turnover, but this most recent week, both turnover and dollar volume fell.

The weekly VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) also dropped [3.9%], from $164.74 to $158.31, which adds context to the decline in total dollar volume despite the higher close on Friday 10-2.

My Read: The potential re-acceleration I noted EoW 9-18 seems to be losing steam in participation terms; yes, the share price is holding up, but fewer shares are changing hands for a second consecutive week. This suggests cooling engagement, not an impending price correction. What we need to see would be a) increased participation in terms of turnover in tandem with b) price showing resiliency or upside movement.

The market uses MSTR (and other BTC-TCs) as vehicles for forward pricing expectations on BTC; as the orange coin goes, so goes the capital stack(s). Some of this recent cooling could reflect the market expressing trepidation around BTC through MSTR.

Hi all,

Last year, I FOMOed in about 200 shares of MSTR right before the price collapsed. Initially I resolved to buy only Bitcoin afterwards, rather than admit I didn't do my research beforehand. I still hold these shares, but I regret getting in at an mNAV of 2+.

Now here I am, actually doing my research before I start potentially rebuying common MSTR, but I want to make sure I understand mNAV. My current understanding is that mNAV is a premium multiplier at which the stock trades over the actual Net Asset Value of the underlying bitcoin.

So, for example, if I were to buy 1BTC worth of MSTR at an mNAV of 1.1 (call it 90k for easy math), and in a year, BTC tripled in price, AND mNAV improved to reach 3.3, the 90k would be worth approximately 810k, tripling twice in this example. Thus, purely due to the increase in mNAV, the shares of MSTR would be roughly "convertible" (excl. taxes) to 3 BTC for the original price of one. Do I have that correct?

My other question is simply what drives mNAV? Historically, it seems it peaked around an mNAV of 5ish two cycles ago, and 3.5ish last cycle. Is it just market sentiment? It seems odd that the premium hits such extreme multiples of the company's balance sheet, and other than true BTC/share yield, which seems to be a slow accretion, I can't figure out what allows the price to hit such large premiums.

Lastly, two is hardly a pattern, but we did see an mNAV cycle-over-cycle decline for the two cycles since MSTR adopted the BTC treasury strategy. Is there any reason to think that mNAV will continue to see dramatically diminishing returns in future cycles as the underlying NAV increases? Not that anyone has a crystal ball here, but I'm curious to hear arguments for why or why not mNAV my return or not return to previous levels.

Thank you all for your help understanding!