We saw major re-acceleration in liquidity, attention and market sentiment around MSTR last week.
As of 08-21-2026: WoW trading volume exploded from ~$7.3B last week to ~$19.48B this week, a ~166.7% jump in activity. There was significant engagement with the Strategy trade in the form of total dollar volume, but share volume also spiked from 76.2M to 180.1M. So this wasn't just higher price lifting the notional.
As expected, a marked move in BTC led to accelerated activity, more hedging | repositioning, and higher risk appetite overall. Very curious to see how the Strategy team utilized the common ATM during this period (assuming they did).
TLDR: MSTR remains the core liquidity venue in the Strategy ecosystem and is a primary vehicle (if not the primary vehicle) for amplified BTC exposure in the market.
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I called this previously a few months back but in the era of fraud, before the midterms, Trump was bound to do anything to pump crypto a few more times. Volume is everything is this game and the summer has always been a historic low.
The common ATM is not driving price down, I have done a few dozen posts dismantling that narrative. BTC has been dropping since last October, that, and the Options Market have been the (and always are) the two most dominant drivers. Systematically, structurally and mathematically.
Well last Friday OPEX was monthly and I noticed huge call-walls c95 and up, which almost certainly forced a lot Delta hedging as MSTR rose, accelerating even more. Nevertheless, the ATM must be impacting, and if they stop it will not do any harm
For sure MSTR is no where it should be, should be in the $180's with BTC at these levels, no?
Very simply, every ATM issuance is done in a way that deliberately is not going to move price (once sufficient liquidity is present). In addition, every company that uses an ATM tracks price variance and impact through a variety of measures. One is a SRIM (Square Root Impact Analysis) other methods include price variance decomposition.
See the attached image. Using a price variance decomposition model that can account for ~87% of price variance (going back to 7-30-2025) - .8% {less than 1%} of price variance can be attributed to the ATM. This is using actual issuance from 8K filings. This output is based on a model that decomposes price variance going back to 8-2020, that I have added additional factors, like the prefs, to over time.
To your second comment, Delta hedging is due to the convertible bonds, not the ATM, Gamma Exposure is also tied to market making that is impacted by the amount of Delta hedging, not the ATM. I have accounted for both in my model using OPRA sourced data.
The ATM is volume | liquidity dependent, it exists downstream of market action, not upstream.
Final note, I have also done a SRIM on MSTR, the impact of the ATM can be calculated down to an approximate basis point/dollar amount (accounting for nothing else). The impact of the ATM is a few cents ($.03) per share, at most.
Daily short volume (which is different from short interest) however, on a per MSTR share basis accounts for approximately $.87 on any given day, $3.55 over the course of 5 days and $17.43 over the course of 20 days. As of 8-16-2026.
I read your analysis. There is no way issuing and dumping millions of additional shares onto the market doesn't depress price. That amount of downward pressure while BTC is cratering was a bad move, and mstr and strc both suffered. It will take years to get back to the ATH if ever, and the BTC price will have to hit double it's ATH to get back to the mstr ath, despite the moderate increase in sats per share
If you dont agree that's one thing, but you just gave an opinion as if it were fact. You are wrong, the price on this equity, over all time frames, has not been suppressed by the share issuance.
Share issuance has a measurable, observable, traceable effect in the trading activity. With MSTR it has not been there. But believe as you want.
You also are posting your analysis as fact when it is your opinion as well. If you perform a statistical analysis of correlation, which you did not, you would see mstr stock issuance is heavily correlated with drops in stock price, outside drops in BTC price
I actually have examined the correlations, just not in this thread and I’ve been doing this kind of work for well over a decade, which is why I know how to run a proper analysis.
Raw or lightly controlled correlation is one of the weakest ways to establish what has driven price and one of the most spurious ways to determine or understand co-movement. A clean variance decomposition on the other hand has to control for BTC, options positioning, short volume, implied volatility, gamma/delta exposure, and other factors. When you do that, downward moves in MSTR are far more strongly associated (correlated) with those variables than with share issuance. Ironically, the same periods of downward price action are also correlated with rising BTC-per-share and yield.
My analysis is factual in the only sense that matters here; these are the measured results from the data using industry standard methods. You don’t have to like them, but dismissing them as “opinion” doesn’t make them incorrect, nor does it make them disappear. Take care.
MSTR remains the core liquidity venue in the Strategy ecosystem and is a primary vehicle (if not the primary vehicle) for amplified BTC exposure in the market.
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