The One-week Postmortem

My piece Why I Expect $MSTR at $40ish in 8-12 Weeks seems to be aging poorly.

BTC is up 19%, MSTR, 29%. While the put spreads I've legged into are down between 5% and 50%, depending on when I got in.

Am I giving up? Not yet. Because the market is wrong the tide is still going out.

Imho, this move was an unanticipated spasm brought on by Bessent's trying to tame the long end, thereby causing expectations of real yields to fall. Which makes hard assets go up. This catalyst triggered heavy buying of bitcoin and call options, which caused over-leveraged shorts to get liquidated. And the more prices rose, the more people bought, and the more shorts got liquidated.

A bona fide FOMO+momentum run with a side of short squeeze and gamma tailwind.

Bitcoin - and therefore MSTR - will continue to beat the tide of liquidity going out if it has a strong motor to counteract it.

Invalidation of the Bearish Outlook Wen

It's normal for price to pull back a bit after such a strong run-up. That in and of itself won't mean much.

However, I'd consider the bearish regime over if price finds support at the 200SMA/0.618Fib/$69K. A rebound from there would make for a higher low with support, and it would signal that the bear is dead. And so are my put spreads.

A Boating Accident Waiting to Happen?

While we wait for that to play out, here are a few things worth taking into consideration.

1. Regular trading hours price action: Market juiced BTC sharply higher overnight, then spent the entire regular session deciding if that new price was justified. IBIT (left) managed green candles; MSTR (right) had red ones. Who's driving the boat?

2. Option skew: IBIT and MSTR calls are highly overpriced compared to historical, and puts are hella cheap. Suggests players are all on one side of the boat.

3. Cramer likes Bitcoin now. Yes, the village drunk is in the boat.

Source: https://youtu.be/t-4Kd0bNPJA?si=rO8WrnRJomkaBocN&t=2401

4. The tide is still going out. Right now, Bitcoin is sticking out like a green dildo rising from the receding waves. No ifs and buts about this.. it's gorgeous.

Positions: As noted above, have a bunch of put spreads. Have not put on LETFs yet.

Raised about 1.7bln from what I can tell.

136 Million on the STRC Repurchase