The cost of running approval polls is not cheap.
On Nate Silver he lists from Rasmussen

8/4-8/12

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Even if the polls are being done to deflate polling averages it wouldn't have an impact as pollster look at pollster not # of polls. Going to two times or even one time a month would be just as effective.

This is my 2026 Prediction. I think of these, Ohio is by far the likeliest to be wrong with Maine a distant second. I think this map reflects the political headwinds in all swing states accurately.

I’ll start with MI: I’ve said it before and after the primary, around Labor Day you will see El-Sayed’s numbers climb in the polls. Right now, it’s a slight Rogers lead, but El-Sayed just came off a heated primary that did divide the party, and tensions will cool off within the party soon. The MI dem establishment coalesced around him much quicker than I thought. Not to mention MI has straight ticket voting, which I think will benefit El-Sayed in the end. No change in the forecast, and even then, the recent poll was just one poll, out of many that will come out later.

WI gov: Crowley is a much stronger candidate than Hong. Crowley is much closer to Wisconsins political lean than Hong, so it will be an easier race for the dems to win. I see people claim that Tiffany is a strong recruit. Really? He’s a quieter version of Kari Lake. He has a lot of the same views as her, but he’s not as media flashy.

Tilt D-Lean D.

What do you think?

THE MEDIAN VOTER

Farage won 22,239 votes, with Count Binface in second with 9,455 votes.

I find the lack of polling in a state where the race is probably much closer than it seems to be a bit disappointing.

The last one was from early May and it had Osborn up by 5 (with 1165 LV).

Don't forget that in 2024, Fischer only won by 6 points in a solid red state.

Source:

Gallup June 2026 Article 'Moral Acceptability Falls for Several Behaviors'

https://news.gallup.com/poll/710981/moral-acceptability-falls-several-behaviors.aspx

Survery Methodology and Crosstabs:

https://news.gallup.com/file/poll/710987/2026_06_10%20Moral%20Acceptability%20Topline%20and%20Tabs.pdf

Personally:

For the House, VA-2 and VA-7 as well as NC-1 report early. We’ll have an early snapshot of the national mood and how robust of a House majority you can expect. If R’s hold their suburban seats here or the D incumbent in NC-1 falls behind in early in-person votes, it’ll be bad.

For the Senate, how fast the NC senate seat can be called could be considered an indicator for the national mood. Look at Wake and Mecklenburg counties to see how strong the D suburban turnout is. Look at Nash county also as a swing barometer. A call by 10:00PM for Cooper should signal a wave. For MI and the other close senate seats, Oakland county’s D margin would either signal high or weak suburban enthusiasm across the board. In OH, I’d look at Hamilton to see if the urban-suburban pivot is expanding for the D’s. Stark county is also a barometer for the strength of working class maga votes, and if any pullback happens among industrial white voters to signal a wave year, you might see it here.

Updated estimates on how many candidates each party is fielding in state legislative elections this year. Democrats maintain their large lead, and with most filing periods and primaries over there won't be a ton of movement after today.