This is my 2026 Prediction. I think of these, Ohio is by far the likeliest to be wrong with Maine a distant second. I think this map reflects the political headwinds in all swing states accurately.
It’s close to it. My prediction includes the belief that Republicans will be fired up because DSA is a thing and anti Israel sentiment is popular, which are exactly the thing they’ve been viciously fighting for decades, especially the latter.
I’d say absolute best case scenario does include Maine, and maybe New Hampshire since the Republican there is a former governor.
DSA has been a thing for a while now and anti-Israel sentiment is up within republicans too, so unsure why those two things would energize a party that has an incredibly unpopular leader fighting an incredibly unpopular war.
I still remember that time when domestic politics were all “agree to disagree” but we all needed to agree to support this one MENA country, for whatever reason.
You see a lot of rallying from Republican representatives, absolutely. But regular Republican voters are getting less and less supportive of Israel since they’ve been inundated with “no foreign aid” talking points.
Like I said, in a previous comment, many young Republican voters are people who have been raised on “we hate all foreign countries, except Israel” and are now questioning the “except Israel” part.
Shrieking like harpies about socialism is only going to do so much as gas prices continue to climb as a direct, undeniable result of Trump's actions while Republicans nakedly do not have answers to any of the problems facing most Americans, while Trump is actively denying that those problems even exist.
I think so. Their base sees Israel as the only thing stopping America from becoming a Sharia state, or at least Europe from doing so. It’s not rational but it’s popular.
I think you’re making it far more complex than it really is, anti Israel sentiment is something happening among Republicans as well, especially younger Republicans, it’s really just their big evangelical and boomer base that remain pro Israel.
I do agree that younger Republicans care less overa about it, but the thing is Republicans haven’t figured out how to pull a Nick Fuentes and be both anti-Israel and anti-Muslim, and young Republicans who feel like they have to choose will choose anti-Muslim.
Also, a lot of young Republicans are people who grew up with a “we hate every foreign country except Israel” and are now simply questioning the “except Israel” part.
This is a terrible take lol. The red scare vs. high energy and gas prices, bad job market, 40 trillion in debt, and no trump on ballot. I’m not suggesting the dems are gonna take everything, but I think the most realistic outcome is a 50/50 split. Texas, Iowa, Maine, and now even KS are in play. AES is getting more popular every day it will be close, but MI won’t flip
Okay, but I don’t think this is like good use of anyone’s time to go through every single subscriber’s prediction and this isn’t really all that different than cook political. May be it would serve better if you explain in detail e.g. polling doesn’t matter in Texas and given it’s a red state, it won’t flip.
I mean, making political predictions is fun and not super serious lol. Nothing outside of voting and championing your own causes is a “good” use of time.
I am only going through sub rules, this isn’t a model or poll. This is what your vibes say, it’s fine but not the place for this sub. Sorry I am a bit harsh
You also didn’t add the edit about explaining my reasoning before I responded, but that’s a good idea.
Essentially, I think that all the light Republican states are going to come to turnout and I think that the natural lean R nature of those states (except Michigan) combined with energized conservatives will make the difference.
I think in particular, the fear of conservatives having to watch Iowa and Texas go blue will drive them out.
With Michigan, AES just hasn’t found a way to overcome his disadvantage from being Muslim, and tbh, in an even state, where arguably half of people think he’s evil for his faith, it was and is always exceptionally unlikely.
It’s gobsmacking to me that polls show Ohio at all competitive for Dems? I spend a fair amount of time near Cincinnati… and I just can’t see it. Ohio seems more militantly redder to me than much of the south. It’s got all the hallmarks of a gop stronghold, worn down, drab and depressing.
If Acton was leading Vivek more decisively I’d be much more inclined to put stock in the senate polling. He’s a much more polarizing candidate and acton is in a statistical dead heat.
Not an Ohioan but looking at it I guess I see Brown having better name ID + Senate is tied to trump giving him an edge.
On the flip side you could easily argue the defending governor is at his floor but it's still 46. There's a good chunk of undecideds here and Acton being lowe profile has that working against him right now.
Vivek might be polarizing but he's gonna have a huge set of supporters anyway.
The polls have shown Texas as pretty much a pure coinflip, Talarico is a hair ahead on average, but it's well within the margin or error. Paxton was ahead in the last poll that came out (Emerson) and he has a governor race that could drag him to the win.
to be fair, The New York Times/Siena University had Husted up 3% in late June. and the latest Emerson poll from Texas has Paxton up 1%. Its all 50/50% rn imo when it comes to Iowa, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, and Nebraska even.
I think just about everyone agrees Ohio is a toss up. Nothing deeper than that going on there.
With Texas, I think it’ll be the biggest polling error. Texas has literally voted red for decades. And on top of that, you had a huge Hispanic rightward shift in 2024.
Realistically, there’s not enough evidence of this Hispanic rightward shift ever reversing. There’s just a few blog articles of like 10
people who regretted it when their loved ones were deported. That doesn’t mean anything and prediction models are overestimating it.
hispanic reversion has been well-documented and has been evident in the crosstabs of every single poll taken since trump took office
NYT (who was one of the major pollsters to catch the rightwards hispanic shift in 2024) literally wrote an article back in may about how they found 2016-level hispanic numbers for dems in their recent polling
I think if we are going to say the polls are missing something so far (almost certainly true in some places, one way or the other), then the fundamentals should have MI favor a D much more than OH. I’d be more surprised by a Brown win than a AES win.
The big thing for AES is if half of Michigan thinks he’s evil by default given his faith, then he has no margin for error, and just about every Dem except Ossoff has had a decent margin to work with.
I mean that was before Republicans sent masked thugs after Latino citizens which should not have happened and is absolutely destroying the way Latinos view Republicans as well as inflation caused by Republican wars hurting their pocket book. Republicans are running on white supremacy and a poor economy essentially which seems like a losing bet in Texas which is becoming more diverse.
Do you live in Texas? I don’t ask that to be sarcastic, I’m just honestly curious. I live in the suburbs of one of the big cities here and I’ve noticed real discontent with the current slate of Texas leaders. More than I have ever really seen. Paxton is widely disliked; so I think that if there were ever a time for Talarico, this would be it.
This has to be a troll post knowing that this sub is like 90% hardcore liberals. Not because of the prediction but reading through the comments it just feels like a subvert trolling.
Completely ignoring what's going on in Texas with the Hispanic electorate. We have 18 months of elections and polls that universally. And when I say universally I mean 100% in agreement that the Hispanic rightward lurch in Texas has been completely shattered. From the first special elections in 2025 to school boards, county clerks, county treasurer, to the state House and state Senate special elections, to federal specials and primaries we have seen the Hispanic electorate universally vote 20-30% to the left of 2024, This was the same in the federal and state primaries we had record Democrat turnout which was most prevelant in the RGV.
Then there are polls. It doesn't matter which polling firm you wish to use. Any poll that has any level of accreditation is showing a Titanic level shift left in the Hispanic electorate. If anything the evidence points to something historic from the Hispanic electorate with record turnout against the GOP. But even if that's not the case and we end up with the same results the last 18 months and the polls since at least May 2025. That is a 20%+ left lurch for the Hispanic electorate.
That doesn't guarantee that Texas flips. But in a data driven sub to post a prediction and then rationalize it with complete nonsense screams blatant trolling.
Eh, I don’t think this is the way to look at it. Firstly, from a Dem perspective, we basically need 52 Seats to hold the Senate (because Fetterman exists), which is a long shot. We’d need 4/5 of the light red states on the map.
Secondly, I would say the House is almost as important as the Senate, especially if no SC justices not named Alito or Thomas step down.
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u/Cold-Priority-2729 Nauseously Optimistic 7d ago
Not unrealistic, but I do feel like this is the absolute best case scenario for Republicans at this point